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Global Warming Global Warming ‘Political hype or ‘Political hype or reality?’ reality?’ The Fernhurst Society The Fernhurst Society - 5 April 2007 - - 5 April 2007 - John Clement John Clement

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Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’. The Fernhurst Society - 5 April 2007 - John Clement. Global warming - questions. What is happening? What are the reasons? What is likely to happen from now on? What can we do?. What’s happening? Observable warming. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

Global WarmingGlobal Warming‘Political hype or reality?’‘Political hype or reality?’ The Fernhurst Society The Fernhurst Society

- 5 April 2007 -- 5 April 2007 -

John Clement John Clement

Page 2: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

Global warming - questionsGlobal warming - questions

What is happening?What is happening?

What are the reasons?What are the reasons?

What is likely to happen from now on?What is likely to happen from now on?

What can we do?What can we do?

Page 3: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

What’s happening? Observable warmingWhat’s happening? Observable warming

Trending strongly above long-term averages Trending strongly above long-term averages since mid ‘70-ssince mid ‘70-s

Page 4: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

NOTNOT the Earth’s long-term climate cycle the Earth’s long-term climate cycle

‘000 years before present

-

+ 5 -

0 -

- 5 -

-

This cycle is driven by Earth’s orbit changes

Page 5: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

What’s happening? Consistent observationsWhat’s happening? Consistent observations

Similar trending since mid ‘70-s by three Similar trending since mid ‘70-s by three independent measuresindependent measures

Page 6: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

What are the reasons? The climate systemWhat are the reasons? The climate system

Page 7: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

What are the reasons? Radiation balanceWhat are the reasons? Radiation balance

Energy coming into the Earth Energy coming into the Earth from the Sun — SOLAR radiationfrom the Sun — SOLAR radiation

Energy leaving the Earth to outer Energy leaving the Earth to outer Space — INVISIBLE Space — INVISIBLE

INFRARED radiationINFRARED radiation

Page 8: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

Solar radiation at poles and equatorSolar radiation at poles and equatorNear the poles, the Sun’s rays are spread out

over a wide area, so the heating is less intense

Near the equator, the Sun’s rays are spread out over a smaller area, so

the heating is more intense

The Earth’s climate systems in the atmosphere and oceans transport heat between the equator and the poles

- and produce the ‘weather’

SUN’S RAYS

Page 9: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

Range of global temperaturesRange of global temperatures

Page 10: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

What are the reasons? Is it solar radiation?

Page 11: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

Implied changes in global tem

perature (°C)

What are the reasons? Solar radiation?What are the reasons? Solar radiation?

0.1

0.2

0

Solar radiation – has been Solar radiation – has been stablestable for the last for the last 50 years50 years

Page 12: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

What is the reason? What is the reason?

Energy coming into the Earth Energy coming into the Earth from the Sun — SOLAR radiationfrom the Sun — SOLAR radiation

Energy leaving the Earth to outer Energy leaving the Earth to outer Space — INVISIBLE Space — INVISIBLE

INFRARED radiationINFRARED radiation

Page 13: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

What is the reason? The ‘greenhouse’ effect?What is the reason? The ‘greenhouse’ effect?

Page 14: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

What is the reason? The ‘greenhouse’ effect?What is the reason? The ‘greenhouse’ effect?

Page 15: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’
Page 16: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

Greenhouse gas increases through Industrial Age Greenhouse gas increases through Industrial Age

COCO22 – roughly constant at 280 ppm until 1800 – – roughly constant at 280 ppm until 1800 – then rising rapidly to 380+ ppm today, and then rising rapidly to 380+ ppm today, and

further yet.further yet.

Methane – 800 ppb until 1800, Methane – 800 ppb until 1800, now 1,750 ppb.now 1,750 ppb.

Nitrous oxide 270ppb until 1800 – now 310 ppbNitrous oxide 270ppb until 1800 – now 310 ppb

Lower atmosphere ozone increased around 30% Lower atmosphere ozone increased around 30% over the same period.over the same period.

Page 17: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’
Page 18: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

Greenhouse gases Greenhouse gases Predicted warming effect over the next 100 years Predicted warming effect over the next 100 years

Methane24%

Carbondioxide

63%

Nitrousoxide 10%

Others3%

CO2 is the major contributor CO2 is the major contributor

Page 19: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

Volcanoes also affect the atmosphereVolcanoes also affect the atmosphere

Page 20: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

Volcanic aerosols in the atmosphereVolcanic aerosols in the atmosphere

5

4

3

2

1

0

5

4

3

2

1

0

Estim

ated cooling effect, Wm

1883 Krakatau

1980

Mt. St. Helens

1991 Mt. Pinatubo

Page 21: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

What’s happening? Observable warmingWhat’s happening? Observable warming

Trending strongly above long-term averages Trending strongly above long-term averages since mid ‘70-ssince mid ‘70-s

Suspected effect of atmospheric particulates

Page 22: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

Climate models - improvingClimate models - improving

Page 23: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

Natural factors alone do not explain the pattern of Natural factors alone do not explain the pattern of global warming since industrialisationglobal warming since industrialisation

Page 24: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

COCO22 in the atmosphere – long term stability until in the atmosphere – long term stability until

industrialisationindustrialisation

The Industrial

Age

Page 25: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

COCO22 from fossil fuels – rapid rise since 1950 from fossil fuels – rapid rise since 1950

Page 26: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

Addition of man-made factors to models Addition of man-made factors to models

duplicates observationsduplicates observations

Page 27: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

Q. Global Warming?Q. Global Warming?

Change between 1750 and 2000

A. Man-made gases dominateA. Man-made gases dominate

Page 28: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

Global warming - questionsGlobal warming - questions

What is happening?What is happening?

What are the reasons?What are the reasons?

What is likely to happen from now on?What is likely to happen from now on?

What can we do?What can we do?

Page 29: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

Global warmingGlobal warming

What is happening?What is happening?

What are the reasons?What are the reasons?

What is likely to happen from now on?What is likely to happen from now on?

What can we do?What can we do?

Page 30: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

What is likely to happen from now on? What is likely to happen from now on?

Depends on what we do.Depends on what we do.

Slowing down GHG emissions, particularly carbon, Slowing down GHG emissions, particularly carbon, will mitigate future temperature rises – but there is a will mitigate future temperature rises – but there is a lot of momentum already embedded in the climate lot of momentum already embedded in the climate system. system.

Adaptation will be needed for coming changes in Adaptation will be needed for coming changes in – – rainfall patternsrainfall patterns- glaciers and sea-ice - glaciers and sea-ice - sea-levels - sea-levels - land temperatures- land temperatures- food crop, forest and animal ranges- food crop, forest and animal ranges- human impacts – livelihoods, wealth and health- human impacts – livelihoods, wealth and health

Page 31: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

RainfallRainfall

Glaciers and sea-iceGlaciers and sea-ice

Sea levelsSea levels

Land temperaturesLand temperatures

Page 32: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

Rainfall - changingRainfall - changing

Page 33: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

UK precipitation by 2080sUK precipitation by 2080s

Page 34: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

European summer rainfall outlook - 2080sEuropean summer rainfall outlook - 2080s

Page 35: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

RainfallRainfall

Glaciers and sea-iceGlaciers and sea-ice

Sea levelsSea levels

Land temperaturesLand temperatures

Page 36: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

Glaciers – meltingGlaciers – melting

16,700 in the world – 13,500 are in retreat16,700 in the world – 13,500 are in retreat

Page 37: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

Gangotri glacier, Himalayas – a case studyGangotri glacier, Himalayas – a case study

Page 38: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

Himalayan glaciers - criticalHimalayan glaciers - critical

Page 39: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

Himalayan glaciers feed 7 of Asia’s great rivers

- The Ganges

- The Indus

- The Brahmaputra

- The Salween

- The Mekong

- The Yangtze

- The Yellow river

Himalayan glaciers - criticalHimalayan glaciers - critical

2.3 billion people

Page 40: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

RainfallRainfall

Glaciers andGlaciers and Sea-ice Sea-ice

Sea levelsSea levels

Land temperaturesLand temperatures

Page 41: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

Sea ice – also meltingSea ice – also melting

1.3 million km1.3 million km22 Arctic ice lost since mid-70s Arctic ice lost since mid-70s

Page 42: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

Arctic sea-ice, maybe disappearing by 2080sArctic sea-ice, maybe disappearing by 2080s

Page 43: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheetsWest Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets

= 6m sea level rise = 7m sea level rise

1,000 years to melt , but……..

Page 44: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

Oceans - The north Atlantic ConveyorOceans - The north Atlantic Conveyor

Page 45: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

Hypothetical collapse in ocean currentsHypothetical collapse in ocean currents

Page 46: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

Best forecasts of Atlantic circulationBest forecasts of Atlantic circulation– – its OK!its OK!

Page 47: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

RainfallRainfall

Glaciers and sea-iceGlaciers and sea-ice

Sea levelsSea levels

Land temperaturesLand temperatures

Page 48: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

Components of sea level riseComponents of sea level rise

Page 49: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

Long-term momentum of sea-level risesLong-term momentum of sea-level rises

Page 50: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

IPCC estimates of global mean sea-level riseIPCC estimates of global mean sea-level rise

Page 51: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

North Sea storm surges by 2080North Sea storm surges by 2080

Page 52: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

RainfallRainfall

Glaciers and sea-iceGlaciers and sea-ice

Sea levelsSea levels

Land temperaturesLand temperatures

Page 53: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

European hot summers – human activity has European hot summers – human activity has roughly doubled the chancesroughly doubled the chances

Page 54: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

European summer temperatures risingEuropean summer temperatures rising

2003

Page 55: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

Global warming - questionsGlobal warming - questions

What is happening?What is happening?

What are the reasons?What are the reasons?

What is likely to happen from now on?What is likely to happen from now on?

What can we do?What can we do?

Page 56: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

What can we do?What can we do?

Avoid unnecessary carbonAvoid unnecessary carbon

Be prudent with necessary carbonBe prudent with necessary carbon

Offset and seuester as much carbon as Offset and seuester as much carbon as possiblepossible

AdaptAdapt

Page 57: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

COCO22 emissions reductions - the only emissions reductions - the only

route to stable concentrations.route to stable concentrations.C

O2 c

on

cen

trat

ion

(p

pm

) 750

650

550

450

350

2501990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Year

◄ Pre-industrial concentration

Constant 1990emissions

Businessas usual

50% 1990emissions

Page 58: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

No getting away from it – future warmingNo getting away from it – future warming

Page 59: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

What can we do?What can we do?

Avoid unnecessary carbonAvoid unnecessary carbon

Be prudent with necessary carbonBe prudent with necessary carbon

Offset and sequester as much carbon as Offset and sequester as much carbon as possiblepossible

AdaptAdapt

Cross fingers for approx. 200 years!Cross fingers for approx. 200 years!

Page 60: Global Warming ‘Political hype or reality?’

The EndThe EndThe Fernhurst Society The Fernhurst Society

- 5 April 2007 -- 5 April 2007 -

A presentation by John A presentation by John Clement Clement