GLOBAL WARMING AND FLOODING: NIGERIAN PERSPECTIVE –

THE WAY FORWARD

By: Dr. Eniang, E. A (Guest Lecturer)

Department of Forestry and Wildlife

University of Uyo, Uyo

Akwa Ibom State

edemeniang@yahoo.com.

07088881313

Being an invited lecture at the Hope Waddell Old Students’ Association (HWOSA)

Uyo Branch, Akwa Ibom State Annual get together

CONTENTS

Introduction

Map of flood

Affected Areas In Nigeria

Governors and Actors Shows Sympathy

Family and community preparedness

The way forward

Recommendations

Introduction

• The latest tragedy to befall Nigeria, is the

great and unprecedented flood of 2012

which has badly exposed Nigeria's rump

and particularly the state of unpreparedness

of the Nigerian state to cope with natural

disasters. After the initial shock and awe,

accusations are now flying left, right and

centre like heat-seeking missiles about who

and what caused the flood

Introduction Contd

• . The government has responded in the only

manner it knows best, it has doled out

=N=17.6 billion to rehabilitate the victims.

It has also set up a committee to raise more

cash with much fanfare

What Causes Floods?

• Global warming, the type, frequency and

intensity of extreme events, such as

• tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and

typhoons), floods, droughts and heavy

precipitation events, are expected to rise

even with relatively small average

temperature increases.

6

The Greenhouse Gases

• Major gases are:

– Water vapour

– Carbon dioxide

– Methane

– Nitrous oxide

– Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)

– Ozone

• Some occur naturally, some result only from human activity,

• Others occur both naturally and as a result of human activity

• Contribution of each to GHE is a function of 3 factors

– Atmospheric lifetime

– Global warming potential

– Atmospheric concentration

7

Is the Climate really changing/Is Global

Warming already happening?

• YES! An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system.

Examples of observed climatic changes

• Crease in global average surface temperature of about 10F in the 20th century

• Decrease of snow cover and sea ice extent and the retreat of mountain glaciers in the latter half of the 20th century.

• Rise in global average sea level and the increase in ocean water temperatures

• Likely increase in average precipitation over the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, and over tropical land areas

• Increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events in some regions of the world

8

General Effects of Global Warming

• Sea-level – a 20cm rise by 2030

• Agriculture & forestry – crop failure & famine

• Water resources – change in global rainfall patterns

• Terrestrial ecosystems – many plants & animal spp. Will have problems adapting, others will not

• Human health – increase in the spread of certain diseases

– Malaria could reach parts of Europe, including UK

– Urban air pollution will get worse

– Heat-induced deaths likely to increase

– Adverse weather conditions, e.g. storms & floods will wreak havoc

– Lives will be lose, insurance premiums will rise

Furthermore

• Global climate change indicates a change

in either the mean state of the climate or in

its variability, persisting for several decades

or longer. It is important to note that

changes in individual weather events will

potentially contribute substantially to

changes in climate variability. Climate

change could occur naturally as a result of a

change in the sun’s energy or

Or

• Earth’s orbital cycle (natural climate

forcing), or it could occur as a result of

persistent anthropogenic forcing, such as

the addition of greenhouse gases, sulphate

aerosols, or black carbon to the atmosphere,

or through land-use change

The situation leads to..

• A variety of climatic and non-climatic

processes influence flood processes,

resulting in river floods, flash floods, urban

floods, sewer floods, glacial lake outburst

floods and coastal floods. These flood-

producing processes include intense and /or

long-lasting precipitation, snow melt, dam

• break, reduced conveyance due to jams or

land-slides or by storm

Recent Experiences

• Flooding has created serious emergencies in

several Nigerian communities thereby

putting many families at risk. Recent

experiences show that farmlands and crops

have been devastated leaving behind a lot of

pains , deaths, economic hardship and

frustrated people who have lost their

sources of livelihoods

Map of showing extent of Flood in Nigeria – in ‘blue’ are the

states affected in September 2012 as Reported in National Media

The Associated problems

• Climate change will have wide-ranging effects on the

environment, and on socio-economic and related

sectors, including water resources, agriculture and

food security, human health, terrestrial

• ecosystems and biodiversity and coastal zones.

Changes in rainfall pattern are likely to lead to severe

water shortages and/or flooding. Climate change will

act as a multiplier of existing threats to food security

Flood In Major Areas of Nigeria

Akwa Ibom State Rainfall destroys property in Uyo Oando Filing Sation in Lagos State

Udaba-Ephei in Etsako Central LGA of Edo state Ughelli North Local Government Area of Delta State

16

NIGERIAN COASTAL ZONE AND

CLIMATE CHANGE

• Maritime state with coastline of about

853km.

• Coastline is low-lying with heights not

more than 3.5metres above sea level.

• High proportion of population (about 23%).

• Industrial establishment 80% concentrated.

• Oil & gas industry, source of over 90% of

the economy located here.

Flood In Major Areas of Nigeria, Cont’d

Flood Disaster Kogi State flood Crocodile which was washed along with the flood into the

Benue community. Some witnesses also say some

hippopotami were spotted along the banks of the River

Benue.

Died bodies were recovered from the Benue River Plateau witnesses worst flood in 50 years

18

URBAN SETTLEMENTS WITHIN

COASTAL ZONE • Lagos, Warri, Sapele, Port-Harcourt, Calabar

Historical Settlements

• Badagry, Forcados, Brass, Abonema, Buguma, Burutu, Bonny, Opobo

Urban centres characterised by

• High population densities and squatter settlements

• Poor planning

• Inadequate housing, potable water, roads

• Poor transport and communication facilities

• Limited waste disposal and health facilities, etc

19

Major Urban Centres in Nigeria

20

Table 1: Land area and population density of

coastal states in Nigeria Census 1992

STATE 1992 CENSUS AREA (sq km) DENSITY (had/per km2)

DELTA/EDO 4,730,029 35,500 133

CROSS RIVER/ AKWA IBOM

4,220,340 27,237 155

LAGOS 5,685,781 3,345 1,700

OGUN 2,338,570 16,762 140

ONDO 3,884,485 20,959 185

RIVERS/BAYELSA 3,983,857 21,850 182

21

Geological map of the Nigerian Coastal Zone

(Allen 1965)

22

IMPACTS

Most cities will experience

• More heatwaves

• Air pollution

• Warmer temperatures will extend the range of some diseases and increase risks from diarrhea diseases

• City economic will suffer as agriculture in surrounding areas is affected

• Flooding and mudslides

• Glacial retreat will reduce water availability

• Unfortunately most urban governments lack The competence

Capacity to act

Have huge infrastructure backlogs

Regard it as environmental issue of little importance

23

Nigerian Coastline showing major oil

terminals

24

IMPACT OF GLOBAL SEA RISE IN

NIGERIA

• ONE METRE SEA LEVEL RISE

– Flood 18,000sq.km of land

– Damage asset valued at US$9 billion

– Force relocation of up to 3.7 million people

• Cost of protecting Nigeria from a sea level

rise of one metre estimated to be US$3,162

billion.

25

Table 2: Scenarios of the Displacement of People for

various Levels of Sea Level Rise (SLR) in Nigeria

(Million People)

Scenario (SLR), meter 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0

No protection 0.64 1.60 3.18 8.50

Important areas protected 0.20 0.52 1.06 1.99

Total protection 0.10 0.27 0.56 0.99

Source: French et al., (1994)

26

Table 3: Impacts of Sea Level Rise in the Niger

Delta

Present 1m SLR 2m SLR

Erosion rate m/year 10-15 16-19 20-25

Area lost to erosion km2 26-45 55-120 130-230

Inundation and erosion km2 3,000 7,000 15,000

Percent of area lost % 15 35 75

Villages impacted no 50 200 350

People displaced million 0.15 1-2 2-3

Note: The Niger Delta is defined as an area of 2 million ha.

Source: Awosika et al., (1992)

27

Table 4: Cost of Protecting against Sea Level Rise

(SLR)

(Million US$)

SLR

Areas:

0.5m 1.0m 2.0m

Only highly developed areas

220-320

560-670

1,700-1,922

Incl. moderate developed areas

610-890

400-1,780

3,537-3,992

Note: The costs occur over 50 years (2051-2100)

Source: WDR, 1992: Development and the environment. The

World development report, The World Bank, Oxford

University Press, 329pp. (cf. French et al., op.cit.).

` Governors and Actors Shows Sympathy

Gov Peter Obi Governor Peter Obi Abandons Independence

Parade to Lead Evacuation of 76,000 Flood Victims

Aki & Pawpaw at Delta State, South South

Nigeria for victims of flood in that state.

Delta State Gov. Emma Uduaghan,

Pawpaw, Aki with some of the victims

Flood In Major Areas of Nigeria, Cont’d

FLOOD AT ZAKI LGA OF BAUCHI STATE Flooded Lokoja-Abuja road divides Northern Nigeria

Delta State Flood Flooded Lokoja-Abuja road divides Northern Nigeria

30

THE WAY FORWARD: MITIGATION

Mitigation of Impacts of Climate Change

Establishment of Coastal Management Policies including:

• Phased disengagement from the coast, where practicable.

• Enforcement of set-back lines.

• In already built-up areas, use low-cost erosion control technology and flood defense measures.

• Prevention of new development in the coastal zone.

31

MITIGATION (BUILT-UP AREAS OF

CITIES) In already built-up areas of cities or where the disengagement

of coastal infrastructure is impossible due to the economics of

such disengagement:

• Advocate use of low – cost, low – technology erosion and

flood defense measures e.g.

– Raise height of beach above the reach of the tides

– Use locally available raw materials such as chicoco blocks,

ripraps and timber to construct erosion and flood combating

structures.

• Less carbon – intensive urban lifestyles are needed

• Including energy – efficient buildings, transport and

production systems.

As a Consequence,

• Global warming leads to rising sea levels

and increased storm activity, it follows that

it has the potential to increase both the

frequency and severity of many of the types

of flooding mentioned earlier. As a result, it

is increasingly important to resolve the

issues relating to flood risk assessment and

its possible adaptation options

FAMILY PREPAREDNESS

This may begin from the media information on

floods. In recent months, Television, Radio and

Newspapers are loaded with news items

concerning floods. But how many of us ever

wonder what they will do if such events should

occur in our community?

How will you cope, what would you do to prevent or

reduce associated hazzards?

BEFORE THE FLOOD

What are the early warning signs of the impending flood disaster?

Very heavy clouds, loud thunders most times herald the arrival of torrential rains and potential heavy flooding

Therefore begin to prepare by holding discussions with family and possibly community members

DURING THE FLOODS, WHAT

STEPS?

• * Get a battery powered radio to get news

and safety directives from both TV and

Radio stations around

• *Get your family to designated meeting

place in your community before floods

cover your area and access routes. Climb

and stay on top of a tree if you are cut-off

from the meeting point

Conclusion

• Flooding is a real, Let us work together to

work towards its mitigation. Let us learn to

adapt to our changing environment for

sustainable development, secured living and

a better earth

Thank you

for Listening!