global warming and severe weather: hurricanes. hurricanes and global warming more hurricanes –...
TRANSCRIPT
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Global warming and severe weather: hurricanes
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Hurricanes and global warming
• More hurricanes– Warming SST’s (sea surface temperatures) suggest
greater source of energy for hurricanes, hence they should be more frequent
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N. Atlantic hurricane record best after 1944 with aircraft surveillance.
SST(1944-2005)
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Hurricanes and global warming
• Fewer hurricanes– Increased wind shear – Increasing atmospheric stability
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La Nina
Drawing
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El Nino
Drawing/animation
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Southern Oscillation and global warming
• ENSO not caused by global warming
• ENSO is natural cycle
• More El Nino conditions under global warming
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Source of uncertainties
• Small sample size (only a few hurricanes each year)
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Early view of hurricane structure, 1946
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Radar-based hurricane tracking, 1960
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http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/index.html
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Source of uncertainties
• Difficult to separate natural and anthropogenic influences on the conditions leading to hurricane development
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Source of uncertainties
• Different ways to quantify hurricane activity?– Strength?– Frequency?– Duration of season?– Tracks?
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