global warming and sea level rise: best estimates by 2100 john king professor of oceanography
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Global warming andSea Level Rise:
Best estimates by 2100
John KingProfessor of Oceanography
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Global Warming:What is it?
• The increase in the measured temperature of the earth’s oceans and near-surface air.
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Measured temperature increases since 1860
Global annually averaged surface temperatures, based on NASA GISS surface temperature analysis
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Global Warming:What’s causing it?
• The increase of these gases causes “The Greenhouse Effect.”
• Human activities add CO2 and other gases to the atmosphere.
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Sun’s energy passes through the atmosphere, warming the earth.
Some of the energy is reflected back into space.
Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere trap some of the heat. More gases = more heat.
The Greenhouse Effect
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Indicators of human influence on the atmosphere
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Changes in Temperature, Sea Level and Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover
Courtesy of IPCC, 2007
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Global Warming:Why does it matter?
Global warming causes climate changes that will affect:
• natural ecosystems
• availability of food and water
• global economies
• frequency of extreme weather
events
• human health and lifestyle
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Increased CO2 emissions = climate change
Rising Temperatures
Changes in Precipitation
Rising Sea Level
Increasing CO2
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Global effects of climate change and sea level rise
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Effects of Global Warming:Rising temperatures
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Rhode Island climate “migration”
Courtesy of the Union of Concerned Scientists
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Rising Temperatures
Courtesy of the Union of Concerned Scientists
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Global and Continental Temperature Change
Courtesy of IPCC, 2007
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Changes in annual average temperature in the Northeast
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Effects of Global Warming:Rising sea level
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Four contributions to sea level rise
1. Thermal expansion of seawater
2. Melting of glaciers and ice caps
3. Ice sheet surface mass balance• snowfall - melting
4. Ice sheet surface dynamical imbalance
• increased flow rate
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Projected globally averaged surface warming &sea level rise at the end of the 21st century
Courtesy of IPCC, 2007
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Sea Level Rise: Observed vs. Projected
Interval Model Prediction Observed
mm/year
1993 - 2003 2.6 3.1
1961 - 2003 1.2 1.8
mm/year
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Sea Level Rise: Observed = Projected
observed
projected
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2007 - IPCC sea level rise estimate
1. Thermal expansion of seawater .......... 28 cm
2. Glaciers and ice caps ......................... 12 cm
3. Mass balance ..................................... - 3 cm
4. Increased flow ................................... + 3 cm
Total: 40 cm
Range of Estimates: 18-59 cm
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ReferenceBy 2100
(feet)Total Rise
(feet)Overpeck,et al., 2006 > 3 13 - 20
Rahmsorf,2007
1.6 - 4.6
- - -
Pfeffer,et al., 2008
2.6 - 6.6
- - -
Sea Level Rise: New Estimates
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Reference Additions to global rise predictions
Yin,et al., 2009 + 8 inches
Hu,et al., 2009
+ 12 - 20inches
Total global +regional
2.3 - 8.3feet
Increased sea level rise estimates for New England
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Greenhouse Gases in Ice Cores
From Brook, E. J., 2005. Science , 25 vol. 310. no. 5752, pp. 1285 - 1287
Present day
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What does 3 feet of sea level rise look like?
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Effects of Global Warming:Rising sea level in Rhode Island
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Quonochontaug Pond 5’ sea level rise:Model by Nathan Vinhateiro, GSO-URI
Flooded areas shown with light blue shading
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Quonochontaug Pond 5’ sea level rise detail:Model by Nathan Vinhateiro, GSO-URI
Flooded areas shown with light blue shading
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Quonochontaug Pond 5’ sea level rise detail:Model by Nathan Vinhateiro, GSO-URI
Flooded areas shown with light blue shading
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Planning Needs for Rhode Island
1. Seamless digital terrain model LIDAR survey of coastline High-resolution bathymetry of coastal
waters
2. Inundation model Storm surge with wave regime
superimposed Better understanding of coastal erosion
style and rate Expanded Rhode Island sea level and
coastal erosion monitoring program
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Possible explanation for why human-induced global warming is still “controversial”