global trade - agricultural policy landscape symposium … · 2018-06-18 · agricultural global...
TRANSCRIPT
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A G R I C U L T U R A L G L O B A L T R A D E A N D F O O D S E C U R I T Y : S O M E M A J O R T R E N D S
AGRICULTURAL POLICY LANDSCAPE SYMPOSIUM
13 AND 14 JUNE, 2018
MARTIN PIÑEIRO ARGENTINE COUNCIL FOR
FOREIGN RELATIONS, CARI /GPS
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FIVE STRUCTURAL TRENDS IN AGRICULTURAL TRADE
1. GROWING DEPENDENCE OF GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY ON TRADE
2. MORE PLAYERS FROM DELOPING AND EMERGING ECONOMIES CREATE A MORE COMPLEX TRADING ENVIRONMENT
3. FOOD TRADE WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SMALL NUMBER OF FOOD NET IMPORTING/EXPORTING COUNTRIES
4. CONSUMPTION PATTERNS DIVERSIFY BUT TRADE COMPOSITION MIGHT NOT
5. TRADE IS PART OF THE SOLUTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE CONCERNS DERIVED FROM AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
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A CONTINUOUS TREND TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONALIZATION OF THE FOOD MARKET
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
18.2%
13.9% 12.3%
19.1%
16.1%
Percentage of calories produced that cross an international border
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FOOD PRODUCTS IMPORTING COUNTRIES
1990
2015
Source: WITS World Bank http://wits.worldbank.org
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CONFIDENTIAL
THE SIZE MEANS PREDICTED GROWTH ON DEMAND FOR FOOD FROM 2000 TO 2030
Annual growth
in population
(2000-2030)
0,0%
0,2%
0,4%
0,6%
0,8%
-0,5% 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 3,5%
Industrial
East Asia (incl. China)
South Asia (incl. India)
Africa
Middle East & North Africa
Annual growth in nutritive intake per capita (2000-2030)
Latin America
SE Asia, Africa and India are the main food demand pullers
Sources: United Nations, FAO, LDC analysis
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FOOD PRODUCTS EXPORTING COUNTRIES
1990
2015
Source: WITS World Bank http://wits.worldbank.org
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FOOD TRADE BETWEEN DEVELOPING MARKETS HAS INCREASED
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Exports to Developed Markets Exports to Developing Markets
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PRODUCER SUPPORT ESTIMATE, THREE YEAR AVERAGE (2010-2012)
61%
54% 49% 49%
45%
24% 19% 19% 18% 17% 15% 15% 12% 12% 11%
9% 8% 5% 3% 3% 3% 2% 1%
-23%
Source: Illescas, Nelson; Jorge, Nicolás; and Perini, Sofía C. 2017
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MAJOR NET FOOD EXPORTING AND IMPORTING REGIONS
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00%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
MAJOR NET FOOD EXPORTERS (INCLUDING FISHING)
Pablo Elverdin on the basis of TradeMap
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00%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
MAJOR NET FOOD IMPORTERS (INCLUDING FISHING)
Pablo Elverdin on the basis of TradeMap
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GLOBAL IMPORTS OF AGRIBUSINESS PRODUCTS, BY GRADE OF PROCESSING
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FOR THE FIRST TIME THE GLOBAL DEMAND WILL HAVE ITS LARGEST COMPONENT IN ANIMAL FEED
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Net emissions of Rural sector activities are
slightly favorable in all MERCOSUR countries
and specially in Argentina
Countries/regions with
ample natural resources that use appropriate
technologies will have less CO2 emissions
NET CO2 EMISSIONS IN THE RURAL SECTOR
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THANK YOU
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DOMESTIC SUPPORT AS PERCENTAGE AGRICULTURAL GDP
1995 2015
Japan 62% 43%
UE 35% 19%
USA 9% 9%
China 6% 21%
Indonesia 6% 29%
Russia 15% 15%
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ADDITIONAL ARABLE LAND WHICH COULD BE IN USE IN 2050 IN SELECTED REGIONS (MILLION HA)
Source: Van der Mensbrugghe, D. FAO. IADB and CIAT Seminar, March 2012.
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ADVANCES OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
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ANNUAL RENEWABLE WATER RESOURCES PER CAPITA
(THOUSAND CUBIC METERS PER YEAR)
Source: World Bank, LAC units. “High Food Prices. LAC Responses to a New Normal”. 2012.
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00%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
MAJOR FOOD NET EXPORTERS (INCL. FISHING)
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WORLDS MENUE
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