global timber market overview - events.risiinfo.com...international timber in the time of covid-19...
TRANSCRIPT
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Global Timber Market Overview
2020 | Fastmarkets RISI | North America Conference
Fastmarkets RISI North American Conference
October 2020
John North
Senior Economist, International Timber
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International timber in the time of COVID-19
• Trade slowed but did not fall off a cliff
Asia woodchip market down 14.5% year-over-year
China softwood log imports down 15.4% year-over-year
• Supply sources are continuing to shift
Trade war and increased transport costs
2020 VLSFO: $392/mt avg
2019 IFO380: $424/mt
• Dominant suppliers and dominant producers are becoming more so
Vietnam is majority supplier in hardwood chip market
Japanese P&P consolidation
• Atlantic wood fiber market is growing
EU regulation incentivizing woody biomass
Portuguese plantation issues
22020 | Fastmarkets RISI | North America Conference
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Bunker fuel price, Singapore IFO 380 and VLSFOWeighted average price
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50
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
Ja
n 1
8
Fe
b 1
8
Ma
r 1
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Ap
r 18
Ma
y 1
8
Ju
n 1
8
Ju
l 1
8
Au
g 1
8
Se
p 1
8
Oct 18
No
v 1
8
De
c 1
8
Ja
n 1
9
Feb 1
9
Ma
r 1
9
Ap
r 19
Ma
y 1
9
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n 1
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l 1
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g 1
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p 1
9
Oct 19
No
v 1
9
Dec 1
9
Ja
n 2
0
Fe
b 2
0
Ma
r 2
0
Ap
r 20
Ma
y 2
0
Ju
n 2
0
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l 2
0
Au
g 2
0
IFO 380 VLSFO
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Total woodchip imports in the Asia-Pacific markets, 2007-2020EMillion BDMT
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3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020EJapan China South Korea Taiwan India Other
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Woodchip imports in the Asia-Pacific region, 2018-2020 YTDMillion BDMT
52020 | Fastmarkets RISI | North America Conference
2018 2019 2020 2020/2019 2019 share
Hardwood
Japan 6,293 6,401 5,028 -21.4% 39%
China 7,505 7,620 7,431 -2.5% 57%
South Korea 299 288 239 -17.0% 2%
Taiwan¹ 271 212 235 10.9% 2%
Indonesia¹ 9 632 0 -100.0% 0%
Total hardwood 14,377 15,153 12,933 -14.6% 100%
Softwood
China 169 112 149 33.4% 17%
Japan 980 918 752 -18.1% 83%
Total softwood 1,149 1,030 901 -12.5% 100%
Total all 15,526 16,182 13,834 14.5% 100%
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Average hardwood chip import CIF prices in Asia, 2009-2020YTDUS dollars per BDMT, nominal prices
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120
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160
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200
220
240
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Japan China South Korea Taiwan
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Sources of hardwood chips for the Asia-Pacific markets, 2020YTD
72020 | Fastmarkets RISI | North America Conference
Vietnam50%
Australia18%
Chile14%
South Africa4%
Thailand5%
Brazil4%
Indonesia2%
Malaysia2%
Minor suppliers1%
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Asia-Pacific hardwood chip imports from Southeast Asian suppliers and traditional suppliers, 2007-2020EMillion BDMT
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E
Southeast Asian suppliers Traditional suppliers
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China: Softwood log imports by source, 2014-2020EMillion cubic meters
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E
Russia New Zealand USA Canada Australia Other
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China: Imports of softwood logs from the United States, 2014-2020EMillion cubic meters
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E
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China: Softwood log imports from Latin America, 2018-2020 YTDThousand cubic meters
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2018 2019 2020
Brazil Argentina Uruguay
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China: Softwood log imports from Europe, 2018-2020 YTDThousand cubic meters
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0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2018 2019 2020
Germany Czech Republic Other Europe
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China: Average price of softwood log imports by major supplierUS dollars per cubic meter, CIF
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60
80
100
120
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200
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240
260
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F
USA Canada New Zealand Russia
Australia Europe Linear (USA) Linear (New Zealand)
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China: Total softwood log and lumber (RWE) imports, 2004-2019Million cubic meters and RWE (L), percentage (R)
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
5
10
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25
30
35
40
45
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Logs Lumber RWE % Lumber
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Russia: Exports of softwood logs and lumber to China, 2005-2019Million cubic meters, RWE
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Logs Lumber RWE % Lumber to China
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South Korea: Wood pellet imports, 2014-2020EThousand tonnes
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500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E
Other Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Vietnam
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Japan: Wood pellet imports, 2014-2020EThousand tonnes
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0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E
Other Vietnam China Canada
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Vietnamese wood pellet exports, 2014-2020EThousand tonnes
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E
South Korea Japan
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Portugal: Hardwood chips yearly import volume, 2013-2020EGMT
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200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E
Uruguay Brazil Spain Rest of World
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Portugal: Hardwood chips imports by supplier, 2020YTD
202020 | Fastmarkets RISI | North America Conference
Uruguay62%
Brazil33%
Other Europe5%
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Portugal: Hardwood chip yearly prices, 2013-2020YTDUS dollars per GMT, CIF
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60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020YTD
Uruguay Brazil World
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Portugal: Hardwood logs yearly import volume, 2013-2020ECubic meters, US dollars per cubic meters, CIF
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E
Hardwood Eucalyptus Hardwood $ Eucalyptus $
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Turkey: Woodchip imports, 2009-2020EThousand GMT
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E
Softwood Hardwood
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Europe: Wood pellet import volumes, 2013-2020EMillion tonnes
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E
Denmark Finland France Ireland Sweden Italy
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• US presidential election
US/China relations
US South softwood log trade
• Fiber sourcing radius will continue to shrink
Transport and labor costs will increase
• Frontier country activity will increase
Thailand, Mozambique, Ecuador
252020 | Fastmarkets RISI | North America Conference
International timber in the times after COVID-19
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26
John North, [email protected]
For more information:
2020 | Fastmarkets RISI | North American Conference