global talent rally estonia - conference version

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

GLOBAL TALENTRALLY

Sally Khallash, [email protected]

International workforce mobility



Facts on Estonia

• Demographic development:– 2009 fertility rate: 1,63, and life expectancy: 75,04.

– Demographic labour pressure index: 0,79 Lowest yet!

• More people leave than enter Estonia.– 2009 Net migration = -7,74 per 1000 people.

– Most emigrants are young families, graduates and young professionals.

– Both foreign born and nationals in age group 20-35 represent the large majority of emigrants!

• Very selective immigration policies. Between 2004-2009, number of:– Short term employment permits was halved, from 500 to 220.

– Work permits was reduced to a quarter, from 2000 to 500.

– Residence permits for employment doubled, from 500 t0 1050.



ARE YOU ABLE TO

ATTRACT?



Estonias Competitiveness?

Sweden Finland Germany Estonia Lithuania Latvia

Need 16 4 15 24 13 8

Attract 7 20 14 24 32 29

Access 9 16 24 59 33 55

Overall

rank

7 16 17 43 29 41

Source: World Economic Forum (2008): Global Migration Barometer



Economic DevelopemtGDP Growth 2000-2010

19%

33%

15%

61%

96%

28%

Source: www.imf.org - IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO)

Estonia lower



Knowledge Accumulation:New Knowledge Hotspots

Source: UNESCO 2009

Estonia 1,9%



Demographic Change:

An aging world

Source: UN Population Perspectives, 2008

Estonia



Migration in Estonia

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year Source: Statistics Estonia

Nu

mb

er

of

mig

ran

ts

Immigration

Emigration

Net migration

Source: Statistics Estonia, SOURCE: PO R01



NEED FORNEW

STRATEGIESNew Segments and Profiles



Current Strategy:

Attract Estonians from abroad

Re-entry shock!-Feel alienated. -Barriers to re-integration.-‘Yoyo movers’.

Strategy:- Attentive to symptoms.- Manage expectations, prepare arrival, stay active, create network & safety net.

Positive outcomes:

re-socialisation-World-mindedness

-Increased creativity

-Increased tolerance

within organizations and

in society.

Negative outcomes:-Alienation & emigration

-Spread of negative

information to other ex-

pats and Estonian

diasporas.

Source: Re-entry shock:torn between two cultures by Martha Denney & Erin Eckert



The Skilled and Talented

Source: IFFs analyse på baggrund af data fra UN Population Division: International Migration Global Assessment 2006



Females, singles and their nannies

• Females

– ½ of migrant population are females.

– 60% of students in Europe & US and nearly 70% in

developing countries are females.

– 40% more skilled females than males among migrants.

• Singles

– Mobility does not fall according to life cycle.

– Strong need for low skilled labor.

• Low skilled labor force

– Migration myth we only need highly skilled labor.

– In US: 2 pct. of labor force but 22 pct. of domestic

help.

Source: UN Population Database + Cortes and Tessada (2007): Cheap maids and Nannies

– how low skilled are changing labor supply of highly skilled women.



The Mobile Millennials

Source: PWC, ’Talent Mobility 2020’



Grandparents??

Source: Intelligence Group: Get ready for the international recruitment rally, 2009



Different needs in different life phases

Source: CIFS MR#3, 2010 ’Global Talent Rally’ + PWC ‘Talent Mobility 2020’

Life-

stage

Apprx. Age Number 2020 Needs and challenges

Free 1

(‘90-’00)

20-35 years Slightly more

Millenials

Nomads, searching for

identity, self-realization,

big cities.

Parent

(‘70-’80)

35-55 years Fewer

Gen. X

Pressed for time and money,

selective, balance between

work and family.

Free 2

(‘60ies)

55+ years More

Baby Boomers

New opportunities,

meaning, consumption

options, health, self-

realization.



Think strategies with time frames

Low-Skilled Medium-Skilled Highly-Skilled

Permanent Rural Migration

Asyllum seeking

Political/Environmental

Refugee

Forced Migration

Elder/Retired

Political refugees

Health Care

Political Refugee

Temporary Au-pair

Service sector-

hospitality

Youth

Construction Sector

Health Care

Elder

Youth

Health Care

IT-Sector

Students

Circular Au-pair

Service sector-

hospitality

Seasonal Labor

Youth

Construction Sector

Health Care

Researchers

Global talents

Generation Y

Creative Class

Resourcesfull Elder

Source: CIFS (3 / 2010): Global Talent Rally



THANKS FOR YOUR

ATTENTION!Sally Khallash, [email protected]

global talent rally estonia - conference version

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