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GLOBAL SCANNING REVIEW INCLUDED INSIDE This issue looks at underground farming, tourist caps, sea glue, commodity constellations, purposeful darwinism in HR, seeing by feeling, devalued degrees, chemputers, wilderness wifi, virtual pop- ups, consumer crowd control, printer to plate, web junkies and much more. Issue 4/2015

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Page 1: GLOBAL SCANNING REVIEW - cifs.dk · helping to relieve strains on city housing projects and homeless shelters. Local churches and organizations could support and “sponsor” pods,

GLOBAL SCANNING

REVIEW

INCLUDED INSIDEThis issue looks at underground farming, tourist caps, sea glue, commodity constellations, purposeful darwinism in HR, seeing by feeling, devalued degrees, chemputers, wilderness wifi, virtual pop-ups, consumer crowd control, printer to plate, web junkies and much more.

Issue 4/2015

Page 2: GLOBAL SCANNING REVIEW - cifs.dk · helping to relieve strains on city housing projects and homeless shelters. Local churches and organizations could support and “sponsor” pods,

GLOBAL SCANNING REVIEW

The Global Scanning Review is the exclusive bi-monthly members’ review by the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies (CIFS). The ideas presented here are inspired by the horizon scanning observations made by the Global Scanning Network (GSN) at CIFS.

With our GSN, we collect, compare and evaluate a wide range of signals – including new and emerging trends, technologies, values, products, concepts, companies, services, and ideas – in order to identify what’s happening now and what could be emerging tomorrow. It is a process that seeks to identify the earliest indications of a potentially disruptive issue, but also tracks changes to established phenomena or trends.

Global scanning is an evidence-based method for understanding indicators of change and possible futures. It is the art of systematically scanning the external environment for evidence of emerging issues and a practice that seeks to inform decision-making by creating a patterned awareness of both potential opportunities and challenges.

Using a competitive and comparative frame, global scanning provides members and clients a detailed review and analysis of some critical raw ingredients for inspiring innovative, future-oriented business opportunities. CIFS’ global scanning also offers tailored solutions in order to generate relevant industry- and business-specific insights according to specific member or client interests.

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Page 3: GLOBAL SCANNING REVIEW - cifs.dk · helping to relieve strains on city housing projects and homeless shelters. Local churches and organizations could support and “sponsor” pods,

Floating City PodsUnderground Farming

Distributed Autonomous SpacesPublic Protection

Tourist CapsPlastic Brick Road

Sea GlueSeeing by Feeling

Tribal PackagingVirtual Pop-ups

Consumer Crowd ControlFashionable Flats & Designer Homes

The Art of RetailWilderness Wi-Fi

Cautious ConsumersWireless Armous

Page 5FUTURE OF SOCIETY & GOVERNANCE

Momentum MachinesAlternative Currency Wars

Alternate DisintermediationCommodity Constellations

Super CapitalismMake it with Mushrooms

Purposeful Darwinianism for HRDevalued Degrees

Page 7FUTURE OF BUSINESS & ECONOMY

Page 9FUTURE OF CONSUMERS & RETAIL

ChemputingEngineered Longevity

Sign HereWeb Junkies & Internet Rehab

Genetic EditingPost-human EraPrinter to Plate

Forgetting Younger

Page 11FUTURE OF PEOPLE & WELL-BEING

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GLOBAL SCANNING NETWORK

The GSN is a network comprised of CIFS consultants and associates, and a team of global ambassadors. The ambassadors are Master/PhD graduates and working professionals on a six month rotation, providing expert perspectives in the realms of science and technology, politics, culture, design, innovation, business management, finance, marketing and branding. The GSN represents a diverse, global group of individuals contributing unique observations, profitable ideas and sharp insights into specific industry challenges.

Keisha Gu, Ally Macrae, Rob Hanson, Rana Serida, Ella Cooper, Laura Dempsey, Monica Porteanu,

Magdaliny Tsiobanelis, Adam Cowart, Bernina ChanGLOBAL AMBASSADORS

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FUTURE OF SOCIETY & GOVERNANCE

A London-based designer has won an award for his design of simple living pods that could attach on to the side of buildings and provide shelter for the homeless. In London, homeless who were “rough sleeping” rose 14% last year. Generally, statistics point to a rise in homelessness driven by a number of trends including mental illness, greater population migration to the city, and rising home prices. Add to this the potential increase in homelessness caused by the migration of immigrants from developing countries, and homelessness becomes a key urban issue. Pods could be cheaply and efficiently built, helping to relieve strains on city housing projects and homeless shelters. Local churches and organizations could support and “sponsor” pods, ensuring cleanliness is maintained. Source Link

A group of entrepreneurs in England have turned World War II bomb shelters into underground greenhouses with the intent of selling sustainable, environmentally friendly produce to local restaurants, and even direct to shoppers. The process uses very little water and energy, without any pesticides. Building greenhouses underground offers an opportunity to grow produce in densely populated areas without displacing populations. This could reduce transport costs, and be a redefining solution for the fossil fuel-intense supply chain networks of today. There is also the possibility of “family plots” – much like buying a parking spot in an underground garage; inhabitants could purchase a plot of underground “farm” to grow their own produce. Grocery chains could also leverage this technology. Building underground facilities could allow them to provide fresh, sustainable produce on location. Lastly, there is potential for animal stock to be cultivated in a similar fashion. Source Link

Distributed autonomous spaces are spaces that have the ability to be flexible and change with the needs of consumers or citizens. The autonomous nature of the spaces allows citizens and consumers to determine the rules of engagement. Instead of producing spaces based off of perceived need, pop-up style enterprises can appear based off of actual need, and melt away as the need disappears. Consider the amount of space in a city, which goes completely unused during any given period of time, i.e. restaurants or offices. Using principles of universal design, promoting flexible spaces, and driving an entrepreneurial culture that focuses on consumer demand and the needs of communities, spaces could become fluid centers of exchange and interaction, rather than finite physical structures. This would free up enormous amounts of space in cities “without room to grow” and also free up large amounts of capital investment funds that could be utilized elsewhere. Source Link

This one is for anyone who has ever left home forgetting sunscreen, or for those who get home after a day at the beach to finding that they’ve had too much sun. In what has been heralded “a brilliant public health campaign,” local councils in Boston and Miami have made sunscreen freely available from “sunscreen stations” in the vicinity of beaches, parks and pools. The program in Boston (approximately $100 – $200 USD) is being paid for by the Melanoma Foundation of New England, and in Miami Beach, sunscreen for beachgoers up to SPF30 is being sponsored by the Mount Sinai Medical Center. With global skin cancer rates still extremely high, this public health initiative is a simple and promising response to what is often considered the most deadly, yet most common types of cancer. Just as we install anti-bacterial hand wash in public spaces, the same model can be applied to sunscreen dispensers, which it is hoped will help to increase sunscreen use. Source Link

FLOATING CITY PODS

Easing homelessness with flexible and portable housing solutions

UNDERGROUND FARMING

Prototyping sustainable, local, urban agriculture

DISTRIBUTED AUTONOMOUS SPACES

Space on-demand is becoming a new asset

PUBLIC PROTECTION

Growing focus on well-being prompts cities to introduce new models to support public health

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TOURIST CAPS

New strategies to ensure sustainable growth from foreign visitors

Until recently, it was a mystery how mussels attach themselves to surfaces whilst completely wet. The chemistry of seawater adds complexity to this challenge. Researchers, however, have not only uncovered the secret molecule that mussels create to bond to these surfaces, they have managed to make bacteria mass-produce the molecule. An organic adhesive, which is extremely strong and able to be applied in wet environments, means there are potential medical, construction and aquatic applications that had previously not had a viable solution. This discovery could lead to bio-adhesives, which render screws, plates and staples for surgery (especially on bones) obsolete. This would reduce the trauma and cost of double handling (for removing various components) and increasing the strength of injury sites. Vessels and underwater structures won’t need to be removed from their environment in order to conduct certain repairs. This would reduce costs and increase operational lifespans. Source Link

SEA GLUE

Understanding nature’s biochemistry to reduce costs and increase safety

Researchers have developed prototype sensors, which mimic the whiskers used by animals to sense their environment. Surprisingly, aquatic life has more sensitive whiskers than land animals; mice and rats have 25,000 nerve endings around their whiskers compared to a seal’s 300,000. Current prototypes are not as good as a seal but hopes are high to far surpass nature’s mastery. Although we don’t know if animals like seals “see” their surroundings through their whiskers, there is potential for robots and unmanned vehicles to sense their surroundings through artificial whiskers. Not only can these whiskers sense objects, they can also determine the flow of the medium they are in – whether this is a fluid or a gas. Whiskers could be applied to drones, driverless cars, and robotic vacuum cleaners. They could help adjust course for wind, sense contact with physical objects and the location and movement of physical objects at a distance. This awareness can help reduce fuel/energy costs, avoid accidents and improve safety. Source Link

SEEING BY FEELING

Harnessing nature to improve sensor technology of advanced robotics

The mayor of Barcelona, Ada Colau, has proposed a “tourist cap” for the city to limit both the number of visitors and approval of new hotel licenses. Barcelona is increasingly a popular choice for weekend breaks, a destination described as being favoured by rowdy, party-seeking travellers. Tourism has also been blamed recently for pricing local residents and businesses out of the market as investors developed apartment blocks for short-term accommodation and international chain stores moved into main streets. The solution, according to Colau, is a six-month hold on approving new hotels and short-term rentals. In the meantime a census would be conducted and the resulting analysis would allow the city to determine which areas could take more visitors and which should be capped. In 2014, Hong Kong was in similar talks over limiting tourists from mainland China. In Barcelona, it is reported that tourism is not only disrupting the day-to-day lives of locals but is also contributing to gentrification. Source Link

Jeff SaundersFUTURIST

+45 2779 7419PHONE

[email protected]

PLASTIC BRICK ROAD

Recycling for utility and sustainability

Rotterdam is looking into using a new recycled plastic material to construct their streets. VolkerWessels, a Dutch construction company, are developing the surfacing material as part of a project to work on removing discarded plastic from the ocean and putting it to use. While still in the concept stage, VolkerWessels plan to construct a plastic road within three years in Rotterdam. The final product would be pre-fabricated and designed to be hollow, resulting in a material that is not only cheaper but also easier to move and use than asphalt. It is also claimed to last three times longer, require less upkeep and be able to withstand extreme weather and climates. This is another example of designers looking at issues in the wider socio-economic and environmental landscape and coming up with new ways of working within existing structures. The implications of switching from asphalt to a more eco-friendly material would have implications for the environment and the manufacturing and construction industries. Source Link

CONTACT INFORMATION

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Page 8: GLOBAL SCANNING REVIEW - cifs.dk · helping to relieve strains on city housing projects and homeless shelters. Local churches and organizations could support and “sponsor” pods,

FUTURE OF BUSINESS & ECONOMY

A company called Momentum Machines has just launched a burger-making robot. Not just any burger-making robot. This one makes a burger every 10 seconds. Automation is increasingly squeezing humans out of jobs. With inequality at all time highs, it is important for wages to be protected, especially minimum wages. Raising minimum wages, or any wages, makes the economic equation for replacing humans with automation more attractive. Low-skilled jobs are an important part of the workforce. These jobs cater for entry-level workers, unemployed workers, students and mothers. Given record levels of prices for education in many areas of the Western world, the need to be able to make a “living-wage” for students of any age is also increasing. Automation, such as this robot burger maker, represents a clear threat to these types of jobs. Therefore, as the nature of the workforce changes, the need for life-long learning and career transitions increases. Source Link

A farmer in Yegorevsk, Russia created an exchange currency called the “kolions”. The currency was meant to act as a tool to help with local bartering. With the volatility of the rouble, many locals in the community were tired of inflation and wished to simply exchange goods with each other. However, the farmer has been charged with unconstitutional behaviour, as the rouble is the only recognized currency in the country. Kolions would qualify as a sub-category of alternative currencies known as “complimentary” currencies. They are not meant to replace nation-state currencies, but rather as a complimentary side currencies used to enhance or support economic exchanges. Some estimates place the current number of complimentary currencies as high as 4,000, up from approximately 100 in 1990. Complimentary currencies are generally adopted to reduce the impact of currency fluctuations on local economies, as well as to promote more localised economic activity. Source Link

Increasingly, the internet has disintermediated the middleman in many sectors, empowering individuals to make decisions in fraction of a second and based on information that previously was available on select channels. In the current model, leading sites are networks of networks, connecting participants in their system. Moving from centralized disintermediation to decentralised matchmaking decreases participants’ dependency on large network operators (e.g., Facebook, Google), who have monopoly of our data. In the decentralised approach, participants own their own data, which is encrypted and resides on distributed nodes belonging to participants in the system, not on a central server owned and controlled by others. The new system limits the roles of the largest intermediaries today, such as governments. Such systems could be imagined in any industry that requires a middleman; agents in the music industry, reputation systems, real estate, insurance, gambling and citizens supporting public goods and services. Source Link

Satellite technology has advanced to the point that cheap, small, even disposable satellites are commercial options. Essentially this is the internet of things placed into orbit. With nano-satellites launched into Low Earth Orbit (LEO) there is now a huge potential for low cost civilian, commercial and military connectivity. With conventional satellites running into the hundreds of millions of dollars, multi-million dollar nano-satellites are far cheaper. Small form factors launched into low orbit also keep the cost down. The connectivity potential is enormous. Although there have been several attempts to setup global internet satellite constellations before, nano-satellites offer different organisations the flexibility to establish their own connectivity. Short lead times (for design and production) and price tags in the low millions make these commercial applications very affordable. When coupled with low cost sensors, their utility becomes significant for things such as disaster relief, agriculture and logistics chains. Source Link

MOMENTUM MACHINES

Disrupting workforce dynamics with expanding reach of automation

ALTERNATIVE CURRENCY WARS

Currency volatility prompting the emergence of multiple alternatives

ALTERNATE DISINTERMEDIATION

Overcoming the limitations of transactional networks with increased decentralisation

COMMODITY CONSTELLATIONS

Low-cost sensors bringing new opportunities for commercial application

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During the global financial crisis governments took many actions to ensure their economies survived. However, these actions have left these countries exhausted and without the reserves, both figuratively and literally, to sustain another crash. Debt as a share of GDP is now, on average 50% higher than before the crisis seven years ago. Since before the crisis, there were those who spoke out about the extreme capitalism. In part, this behaviour was fuelled by a thirty-year business long-wave, which was comprised of market actors, and analysts who had never seen a crash. Many declared it was the end of cycles and the only way was up. Robert Reich coined the term “super capitalism” about the decadence of the era. Reich also predicted that the crash of the crisis would follow a “W”, or a double dip, shape. So far there has only been one major dip. Could a distressed global economy be ripe for another downturn or collapse? Source Link

Amazon is increasingly applying data science to manage its corporate functions, including human resources. Amazon notes that “data creates a lot of clarity around decision-making, data is incredibly liberating.” With no pretence that its employees are a priority, Amazon is testing the limits on how far the company can push its employees to perform at maximum capacity in order to generate really disruptive innovations. Some call the method “purposeful Darwinism”. It “is in the vanguard of where technology wants to take the modern office: more nimble and more productive, but harsher and less forgiving, using data and psychological tools to spur its tens of thousands of white-collar employees to do more and more.” According to an insider, the company is running a continual performance improvement algorithm on its staff. Historically, tough high-performance HR methods have been practiced in top companies, however data-driven approaches are new. Source Link

SUPER CAPITALISM

Being prepared for uncertain economic futures is increasingly important

PURPOSEFUL DARWINISM FOR HR

Using data science to increase productivity at the expense of employee well-being

At Dutch Design Week, designer Maurizio Montalti has presented a series of objects including plates and bowls created from mycelium. Mycelium is the “root” of fungus, and Montalti explains that mushrooms are simply the flower on top. Using the thread-like organic matter, Montalti has taken a new approach to materials that focuses on cultivation as the basis for production. Montalti is exploring the potential to make apparel and shoes from mycelium, developing an alternative to textiles and other materials. Last year, the plant-based, sustainable material was also used by an architectural studio called The Living to construct a tower in New York, highlighting the versatility and potential of this new material. Biotechnology is an important trend with the opportunity for multiple applications and innovations. Innovations such as this are important as they look to the natural world and use a closed loop production, a paradigm based on cultivation rather than exploitation. Source Link

MAKE IT WITH MUSHROOMS

Shifting to closed-loop production, focusing on cultivation not exploitation

Ernst & Young (EY) have announced changes to their graduate hiring process that will see internal testing replace degrees and A-level scores as a key indicator of an applicant’s competency. Similar methods have been adopted by other recruiters at firms such as PricewaterhouseCoopers, suggesting a trend of prioritising in-house assessments over the standard benchmarks set by schools and universities. As one of the biggest employers of graduates in the UK, the move is significant. As in-house assessments are placed at the forefront of the recruitment process it would change the value and purpose of university degrees. The value of degrees will change and as a result universities and schools may see a drop in enrolments as people enter the workforce directly. For potential candidates, it may provide an advantage to the less privileged that may have not had access to top schools and private education. People who have skills that are not easily demonstrated through the school system could also benefit from a more levelled playing field. Source Link

DEVALUED DEGREES

Companies are becoming the education providers of the future

Claus KjeldsenCEO

+45 2825 3101PHONE

[email protected]

CONTACT INFORMATION

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FUTURE OF CONSUMERS & RETAIL

McDonalds target hipster customers with the experimental launch of its burger bike tote. For it’s newest ad campaign, in partnership with global ad agency Tribal, the fast-food chain designs a new form of packaging aimed for cyclists. Able to carry burger, fries and a drink, cyclists simply hook the purse-like box onto their handlebars and pedal off to enjoy their meal. This provides a solution to fast-food transport and the popularity of urban cycling as a means of transportation. With further plans of experimenting the concept in other bike-friendly cities like Amsterdam and Tokyo it remains to be seen if the concept will become a more permanent solution. As biking is becoming one of the preferred means of transportation for millennials, the campaign reflects McDonald’s adaptation and exploration into the new habits of its consumers. Source Link

Outdoor sportswear brand Peak Performance have launched a digital campaign based on the concept of a virtual pop-up shop. Participants are invited to visit specified outdoor locations at two set periods each day, “The Magic Hour” (sunrise/sunset). Locations include mountain tops, golf courses and a lighthouse on a small island. Once at that location, the GPS would detect the user is there and activate a mobile experience enabling the participant to purchase special products and more importantly to receive free products, accessible only to those taking part in the experience. The brand is taking the concept of a pop-up, a now widely used tool for engaging with consumers, and utilising mobile technology to create a more interactive experience. The bridge between physical stores and online shopping is increasingly blurred. This campaign brings both the importance of real world, physical spaces and virtual, digital technology together to try and capture the imagination and interest of their consumers. Source Link

Density has developed a device that can count people digitally using infrared technology. Aimed at both businesses and consumers, the people counter would be attached to a venue’s door and could monitor as people enter and exit. Infrared is an anonymous way of tracking visitor numbers in comparison other more invasive tracking technologies. The concept is that the tally could then be accessed via an app or directory, giving consumers an idea of waiting times and crowd numbers before planning their visit. For business, it would provide an accurate way of monitoring how many consumers are in their venue and allow them to react accordingly. Being able to react in real-time to crowd levels would give businesses the capacity to work more efficiently. Visitors could identify wait times at museums and other attractions and commuters could see which modes of transport are the least busy at a given time. There is also potential for partnering with other businesses on marketing opportunities in order to react to peak and slow periods. Source Link

Versace is launching a branded development of flats in London. Designed by the luxury fashion label, residents will be able to enjoy Versace bed sheets, Versace crockery, Versace fittings and carpet and of course, a Versace wardrobe. Due for completion in 2020, the launch has attracted media attention leading to dozens of the apartments already selling. Residents, upon purchasing can be flown to Versace HQ in Milan where they can consult with the designers and select custom interiors and further add-ons covering everything from cutlery to furniture. The developers working with Versace on the building have previously released designed branded apartment blocks in Saudi Arabia and Beirut. Fashion brand Armani are also set to release branded apartments in the USA located in Florida. Fashion houses have used their name for hotels for years, including the Versace and the Bulgari hotel in London. Recently, Gucci have also announced the opening of a restaurant in Shanghai, following Armani and Ralph Lauren who also operate restaurants. Source Link

TRIBAL PACKAGING

Tapping into the buying power of millennials by understanding their habits and lifestyles

VIRTUAL POP-UPS

Using a mobile experience based on GPS for digital innovation in the consumer space

CONSUMER CROWD CONTROL

Measuring and monitoring individuals with infrared technology

FASHIONABLE FLATS & DESIGNER HOMES

Leveraging brand recognition of fashion labels in real estate, architecture and interior design

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THE ART OF RETAIL

Transforming retail spaces into galleries and museums to stage consumer experiences

Tourists are becoming increasingly resilient in the face of terrorist attacks. A report presented at the World Economic Forum has showed that recovery times after violence or unrest have reduced over the 15 years. In 2001, following 9/11 it took approximately 34 months for the city population and levels of occupancy to recover. In 2003, the train attacks in Madrid took 12 months for the same recovery while in 2005, the impact of the London bombings took nine months. It appears the public are becoming more accustomed to the nature of these events and recognising the importance of acting with caution but not panic. There is opportunity for businesses to appeal to consumers’ sense of independence in the face of terrorism and unrest. Consumers want to feel they are empowered, and this mentality is important to keep in mind for attracting tourists and engaging with them. This kind of global resilience can also strengthen the world economy by maintaining patterns of consumption despite unexpected external incidents. Source Link

CAUTIOUS CONSUMERS

Consumers and businesses are becoming increasingly resilient in times of unrest

A new brand of underwear has been launched that claims to act as “wearable tech” that protects the wearer from 99.9% of electromagnetic radiation. “Wireless Armour” was developed by Joseph Perkins, a British scientist, using fabric made from a blend of cotton and silver they have called RadiaText. The silver is used to create a shield against the radiation emitted from personal electronic devices that use Wi-Fi, such as smartphones and laptops. The fabric is also claimed to be anti-microbial, strong and comfortable on the skin. The product is aiming to capitalise on the unknown implications of our increasingly tech-driven lifestyles. Whether the product can live up to its claims, and how successful it will be, remain to be seen. However, the press around the product indicates the concept is one that will appeal to consumers looking to prevent disease and increase longevity. Source Link

WIRELESS ARMOUR

Protecting against technology with technology - anti-radiation clothing

Art and retail are becoming more intertwined. Cited examples include the ongoing collaboration between Dutch architect Rem Koolhaas and designer Miuccia Prada, which has resulted in minimal, artistic spaces that encourage customers to experience the products in what could be a museum or white cube gallery. Increasingly retailers are looking to emulate the look and feel of exhibition spaces in their stores. Other reported brands adopting this approach are Tom Ford, Victoria Beckham and Celine. Outside the luxury fashion sector who present their goods in beautifully curated “gallery-like” spaces include high-street brand Cos, beauty brand Aesop and even Apple. As this approach moves into the mainstream mass-market, it has a variety of implications for not just retailers but also architects, building owners, consumers and the art industry too. The bricks-and-mortar stores are being transformed into showrooms or museums, filling a new gap for consumers seeking experiences and offering that through carefully considered, sensory environments. Source Link

WILDERNESS WI-FI

Catering to increasing consumer demand for connectivity in more remote places

Japan has announced plans to install a free Wi-Fi service on Mount Fuji. Eight Wi-Fi hotspots will be installed including on the summit. Visitors will be able to access the service for free using a user name and password distributed in translated handouts for foreigners. Telecommunications provider NTT DoCoMo will provide the wireless service and grant access to each user for 72 hours so that they can use social media, upload their selfies and also obtain safety information. The mountain attracts hundreds of thousands of tourists annually. In response to demand, it is hoped the addition will boost the tourism industry ahead of the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo. At the same time, increasing connectivity may increase demand for “quiet zones” where there is no wireless or even phone reception. Source Link

Carsten BeckFUTURIST

+45 3065 1101PHONE

[email protected]

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CONTACT INFORMATION

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FUTURE OF PEOPLE & WELL-BEING

3-D printing has opened up doors to new models for manufacturing, cooking, as well as medical implants, prosthetics, and most recently, drugs. In August 2015, the Food and Drug Administration agency (FDA) approved the first 3D-printed prescription pill. The 3-D printed pill furthers the possibilities for personalised medicine by making it possible to tailor each tablet to individual patient needs, giving doctors the ability to adjust dosages on the fly. It opens the door to affordable medicine and allows for entire prescriptions to be packed into one pill. 3-D printing drugs could create a new pharma model by shifting the value creation from manufacturing by big pharma to the recipe. It also democratises complex chemistry and enables drug creation at the point of need, as well as the ability to produce wider range of drugs. At the same time, this “wild west pharma” might prompt new social health issues, with the emergence of “print heads” making illicit pills from 3D printers. Source Link

Caliclo, Google’s medical research company dedicated to extending human life, has confirmed it will be working with family tree website Ancestry to obtain genetic data. The aim is to analyse the DNA of humans who lived to an old age, find patterns and then attempt to replicate this in pharmaceuticals that will extend life. Ancestry is a private company and has two decades worth of information in its database, including the DNA of over one million customers obtained through testing kits sold to the public. So far, Google has spent US$730 million on Calico and have the ability to continue investing. Partnering with Ancestry gives them access to over two million subscribers and the seven million family trees that have been created by them. If successful, Calico may be able to produce supplements and treatments that prevent and cure illness. In turn, this could reduce the need for health care through identifying and resolving health issues before they develop. Source Link

According to several media reports, “schools in Finland are phasing out cursive handwriting classes in favour of keyboard skills.” Officials accept that texting, tapping and tweeting have taken over as the primary means of communication in the modern age. Finland’s National Board of Education have stated that cursive writing is not useful for school aged children because of the time it takes to become fast at writing. They stipulate that as of 2016, students will only be taught “print handwriting” (non-cursive) and more attention will be placed on learning keyboard skills, something that they government recognises as increasingly crucial to the job market. This trend is likely to have an impact on how early childhood education is structured around technology for communication and learning. It is argued that the ability of children to communicate better and faster using digital communication has the potential to have a positive impact on rates of learning. Source Link

Internet addiction was first recognized as a clinical disorder in China, back in 2008. Many other countries have followed, categorising compulsive internet usage as a mental health issue. To address the issue, China has established treatment centres starting back in 2004. Today there are now hundreds programs operating in China, South Korea, and the U.S. One of the Chinese treatment centres available offers treatment over four months, often aimed primarily to male teenagers. The treatment is based on strict military practices, enforcing physical training and mentions a success rate of 70%. Although the Chinese claim a high success rate, the treatment raises several questions in regards the root cause of patients’ addiction, which seems more like an escape from a life lacking social, inter-personal interactions in the real world. For China, technology overuse is a national concern, estimating that at least millions, if not billions of users have demonstrated signs of digital addiction. However it is not clear how big the problem is beyond China. Source Link

CHEMPUTING

Additive manufacturing democratising chemistry and individualising healhcare

ENGINEERED LONGEVITY

Major companies investing in genetic research and big data to reduce disease and extend life

SIGN HERE

Updating education policy and curriculum to reflect a new reality

WEB JUNKIES & INTERNET REHAB

Digital dependency challenging national govenments as a mental health issue

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GENETIC EDITING

Removing, replacing or adding genes at will to tackle hunger, pollution and disease

A 3D printer prototype has been developed that allows people to make their own meat at home. Features include being able to tailor the meat to the individual, programming the printer with dietary requirements and culinary preferences. For example, users can reduce fat content while maintaining taste and texture. Dubbed “Cultivator”, the designers Sarah Mautsch and Aaron Abentheuer, from the University of Applied Sciences Schwäbisch Gmünd, aim to bring attention to bioprinting and the future possibilities of printer technology acting as a resource for populations with limited access to food. The printer itself is not ready to be mass produced currently, but as the technology exists to achieve the concept the designers have predicted it will be possible in the next 10 to 30 years as the technology evolves and becomes more accessible. This would have implications across the food supply chain from agricultural business through to restauranteurs, while empowering vulnerable populations to produce their own food. Source Link

PRINTER TO PLATE

Using bio-printers to boost access to food and customise culinary experiences

Recent studies have uncovered that dementia, a neurological disease previously associated with the elderly, has been increasingly identified in people in their 40’s, affecting men three times more and women five times more than before. Other neurological diseases such as Parkinson’s have shown similar patterns. Although the findings could be related to improvements in diagnostics and diagnostic accuracy, the findings show a concerning pattern impacting the well-being of certain populations. In most cases, the root cause of the neurological diseases is still a mystery. Although there are various hypothesises of what those might be, the reality is the impacts of the modern life are not well understood. The study cites as potential causes factors such as environmental factors and pollutants that are abundant in endocrine disrupting chemicals. Source Link

FORGETTING YOUNGER

Growing number of cases of dementia being reported in middle-aged adults

Advances in DNA editing have the potential to end hunger, pollution and disease, among other things. That is, the Crispr-Cas9 method, which is short for “clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats” using the Cas9 protein. This method is cheap, easy and fast. Compared to the previous versions of gene manipulation, we have moved from rusty garden shears to precision laser cutters. Genetic editing has become something anyone can do with an undergraduate degree in Science and a few thousand dollars of equipment. Genes are extremely complex in what they do, how they work in combination and how (and when) they are expressed. This technique allows researchers to remove, replace or add genes at will. Several applications have already been applied in the lab, including: reversing mutations, such as blindness, stopping the growth of cancer cells, making wheat immune to mildew and turning food crops into bio-fuel production machines. Source Link

POST-HUMAN ERA

Augmenting human biology with emergent technologies and artificially-created organisms

Artist Stelios Arcadiou is challenging the human relationship with technology by exploring what the post-human era might look like. He envisions that human anatomies will be increasingly enhanced with technologies that are inserted in the body. He started by inserting cameras in his lungs, colon, and stomach. Most recently, he has transplanted an ear onto his arm. The ear is a made of a material used in plastic surgery, enabling the ear to be a living, feeling, functioning part of the artist’s body. The emerging and experimental form of art practiced by Stelios Arcadiou brings the future back to us, helping us understand the possibilities that technology could open up. The artist has changed the medical world, from a community who practices the Hippocratic principles of curing people, to one in which it is possible to alter the human body with technology and living but artificially-created organisms.Source Link

Martin KruseFUTURIST

+45 3065 1104PHONE

[email protected]

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CONTACT INFORMATION

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CIFS Executive is our international membership network for decision makers. The CIFS Executive meetings are open for members of the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies and are by invitation only. We wish to create a dialogue between people who understand the need to use the future proactively. Our idea is to deliver flashes of inspiration that highlights potential game changers. We are putting the future on the agenda, and our members get the first chance to discuss opportunities and threats related to the latest developments identified by CIFS.

CIFS EXECUTIVE

The challenge all B2C companies fight today is the struggle for consumer attention. In our next members’ report CIFS takes a look at the Future of Consumers. Consumption is a fundamental way of living our lives. We shop not just for milk, work and news, but also for identity, relations and spirituality. In a time of tectonic demographic shifts, increasing polarisation and rapid acceleration, we witness changing consumer markets and consumer behaviours. We explore several different social trends and share insights on how such developments are leading to the emergence and continued development of underestimated and even seemingly forgotten consumer segments. We are opening up the field and mapping other global consumer opportunities for companies to address and pay attention to in order to better navigate the complex world of the future.

MEMBERS’ REPORT 3/2015

October 7 2015OSLO

October 6 2015STAVANGER

October 20 2015COPENHAGEN

October 22 2015BRUSSELS

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In this issue’s main article, we look at warfare in the future, where decision-making will be increasingly automated by advanced technology. Expert in modern war, P.W. Singer, shares his perspectives on automated weapons and the dangers of cyber war.

Other topics and articles in this issue: Backup.exe / Is the Internet of the Future Wireless? / Attack of the Big Data Positivists / Photo Series: Per / Wildcard: The Fall of Universities / Futures Past: The Life Digital / Will Religion Disappear? / Russia’s Future: Scenarios for Peace and Conflict / News in tech and science / Ideas, visions, trends and much more...

SCENARIO MAGAZINE 5/2015

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COPENHAGEN INSTITUTE FOR FUTURES STUDIES is an international, apolitical and not-for-profit think tank that has advised governments, multinationals, public and intergovernmental bodies all over the world about the future since 1970 through a membership network, strategic consultancy, seminars, workshops, presentations and publications.

The Institute identifies and analyses the trends and driving forces that shape the world, and works with scenario planning that can be used in strategy development and other change processes. The Institute is therefore both a think tank and strategic advisor for public and private enterprises that wish to know more about the future before they make important decisions.

The objective of the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies is to strengthen the basis for decision-making in public and private organisations by creating awareness of the future and highlighting its importance to the present.

For more information about CIFS or this publication:

Phone: +45 3311 7176 Web: www.cifs.dk Email: [email protected]

Copyright © 2015 All rights reserved