Global Real Time Ocean Global Real Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS-Forecast System (RTOFS-

Global)Global)

Team: Avichal Mehra, Ilya Rivin, Bhavani Balasubramaniam,

Todd Spindler, Zulema Garaffo, Hendrik Tolman and

Deanna Spindler.

RTOFS-GlobalRTOFS-Global

RTOFS Global will be the first global eddy-resolving ocean forecast system at RTOFS Global will be the first global eddy-resolving ocean forecast system at NOAA/NCEP.NOAA/NCEP.

This global system will be based on a 1/12 degree This global system will be based on a 1/12 degree HYCOMHYCOM ( (HYHYbrid brid CCoordinate oordinate OOcean cean MModel) with a odel) with a Pan-Am Global Grid (4500 x 3928).

The system has 32 vertical hybrid layers (isopycnal in the deep, isolevel in The system has 32 vertical hybrid layers (isopycnal in the deep, isolevel in the mixed layer and sigma in shallow waters).the mixed layer and sigma in shallow waters).

The initialization is based on a MVOI scheme (NCODA) developed by the US The initialization is based on a MVOI scheme (NCODA) developed by the US Navy which assimilates daily observations (T,S, U,V and sea surface height) Navy which assimilates daily observations (T,S, U,V and sea surface height) in a sequential incremental update cycle to produce analysis. in a sequential incremental update cycle to produce analysis.

The daily global ocean forecasts at NCEP will be forced with the GFS surface The daily global ocean forecasts at NCEP will be forced with the GFS surface fluxes of radiation, precipitation and momentum.fluxes of radiation, precipitation and momentum.

1/12 Degree Global Domain1/12 Degree Global Domain

MotivationMotivation NCEP needs a global eddy-resolving ocean model:NCEP needs a global eddy-resolving ocean model:

Part of NOAA ocean modeling backbone capability (SAB 2004, NOAA Part of NOAA ocean modeling backbone capability (SAB 2004, NOAA response 2005).response 2005).

• Partnering with NOS and IOOS-RA’sPartnering with NOS and IOOS-RA’s

• Part of larger National Backbone capability in strong partnership with Part of larger National Backbone capability in strong partnership with Navy.Navy.

Internal needs for NCEP:Internal needs for NCEP:

• EMC/OPC / TPC / WFO’s need for real time eddy-resolving ocean EMC/OPC / TPC / WFO’s need for real time eddy-resolving ocean products for customers.products for customers.

• MMAB and NOS need for real-time eddy-resolving boundary data for MMAB and NOS need for real-time eddy-resolving boundary data for areas of interest:areas of interest:

Coupled regional hurricane modeling.Coupled regional hurricane modeling.

• Atlantic, East Pacific, ….Atlantic, East Pacific, …. Centerpiece of integrated ocean modeling system ( e.g. plume Centerpiece of integrated ocean modeling system ( e.g. plume

modeling for radionuclide dispersion near Japan).modeling for radionuclide dispersion near Japan).

 

Preliminary Monitoring

and Diagnostics

Gulf Stream locationGulf Stream location

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

0 5 10 15 20 25Dates

Degrees

RTOFS-Atlantic (Nowcast)

RTOFS-Global (Nowcast)

NCOM- HiRes (Nowcast)

Difference (in degrees) between the feature-based GS location from NAVOCEANO and numerical models. RTOFS-Global is comparable to NCOM (US Navy) 1/32 degree high resolution model of Gulf Stream.

Data Provided by OPC

Days since 12/20/1010

1/17/2011 1/22/2011 1/27/2011 2/1/2011 2/6/2011 2/11/2011 2/16/2011

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

° C

Dates

Daily Bias and RMS differences between OISST and Global RTOFS. Averages over this period were 0.1 °C (Bias) and 1.0 °C (RMS).

Data Provided by OPC

Daily RMS

Daily Bias

2011 Fall AGU Session2011 Fall AGU Session

OS12: Multi-scale Ocean Modeling and OS12: Multi-scale Ocean Modeling and Opportunities for Coastal Marine and Opportunities for Coastal Marine and Ecosystem Forecast Services Ecosystem Forecast Services

Description:

NOAA provides a model forecast and computational backbone for multi-scale ocean predictions from global to coastal coverage. Over the past five years, forecast systems have been developed and made operational to support and provide opportunity for local applications. The goal of this session is to publicize these emerging capabilities and stimulate discussion between users of these applications and those who are providing the services backbone. Abstracts on key areas are encouraged, such as 1) operational global/regional/coastal ocean and ecosystem forecast systems; and 2) coupled atmosphere/ocean/ecosystem forecast systems. Emphasis is on lessons learned from established operational systems.

Potential Temperature at WOCE section I-8 (top) compared to Potential Temperature at WOCE section I-8 (top) compared to the same section from RTOFS-Global (bottom)the same section from RTOFS-Global (bottom)

Salinity at WOCE section A-3 (top) compared to the same section Salinity at WOCE section A-3 (top) compared to the same section from RTOFS-Global (bottom)from RTOFS-Global (bottom)