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Global Publishing Markets Mapping data, developments, and patterns
of the publishing industry worldwide.
A study for the International Publishers Association (IPA), supported by the London Book Fair and BookExpo America. Presented at the London Book fair, April 16, 2012
The goal of the survey
Maping & understanding
the role and the value
of books and publishing
in the global knowledge society
The guidelines of the survey
A global survey of publishing markets
By country and
By region
Ultimately:
A map of global publishing
Develop a grid for comparing and understanding the publishing industry:
The market dynamics
The differences between countries and regions
The cultural background
The wider context
What data?
The key indicators Market indicators:
Publishers‘ annual revenues
Market size at consumer value
Number of titles published (new & re-editions)
Number of copies printed
Imports & exports
What data?
The key indicators: References :
Number of titles by million inhabitants of a country
GDP per capita
Exports & Imports
What data?
The key indicators: Contexts:
Number of titles by million inhabitants of a country
Import / export balance
GDP per capita
Purchasing power parity
The sources
Methodology:
1. Publishers' revenues
2. Market value (at consumer prices)
3. Titles published (new & re-editions)
4. Selected exports data
Data sources:
Professional organisations and government
Professional media
Expert estimates
Projections & cross referencing
The status quo
This preliminary version („Beta“):
50+ countries
Ca. 50 bn € of publishers‘ revenues
Ca. 80 bn € of market value
17 markets with over 1 bn€ value
Findings 2012: Samples & case studies
Increase the number of countries
Starting to record a „history“ with data
Profile regions (e.g. Asia, Arab countries)
Compare sets of markets (e.g.emerging markets)
Compare revenue developments & production statistics in US, Europe
Use exports to map data poor countries
Chart exports against domestic production
Develop historic profiles
The largest book markets (01)
Country Publishers‘ revenues (m€)
Market value (m€)
Titles per 1 m inhabitants
USA 18.927 € 27.445 € 985 PR China 10.602 € 245 Germany 4.530 € 9.734 € 1172 Japan 7.129 € 586 UK 3.738 € 4.080 € 2459 France 2.838 € 4.620 € 1267 India (est. 2007) 1.675 € 87 Italy 1.640 € 3.417 € 956
The largest book markets (02)
Country Publishers‘ revenues (m€)
Market value (m€)
Titles per 1 m inhabitants
Spain 2.891 € 1692 Korea 2.265 € 824 Brazil 2.027 € 271 Russia 1.771 € Canada 1.535 € Australia (prel.) 1.520 € 860 Poland 697 € 1.123 € 571 Taiwan 1.200 € 1522 Netherlands 1.174 € 1412
US & large EU markets: Sales
Country Year Publ's Revenues (m domest. currency)
Market Value (m domest. currency)
Currency
USA 2010 27100 US$ 2009 27900 US$
Germany 2010 9734 EUR 2009 9691 EUR
UK 2010 3115 3400 GBP 2009 3053 3404 GBP
France 2010 2829 EUR 2009 2838 4620 EUR
Italy 2010 3408 EUR 2009 3417 EUR
Spain 2010 2890 EUR 2009 3110 EUR
US & large EU markets: Production
Country Year Number of New Titles
New Titles per 1 m Inhabitants
USA 2010 316480 1018 2009 302410 985
Germany 2010 95838 1172 2009 93124 1138
UK 2010 151969 2156 2009 133224 2459
France 2010 79308 1267 2009 66595 1064
Italy 2010 57558 956 2009 58829 977
Spain 2010 79839 1692 2009 76213 1657
EU small markets: Sales
Country Year Publ's Rev‘s (m domest. Curr.)
Market Value (m domest. Curr.)
Currency PubRev's /
MarkVal m€
Belgium 2010 264 EUR
2009 158 262 EUR
Hungary 2010 61571 HUF *** / 221
2009 31000 61500 HUF 114 / 226
Netherlands 2010 1174 EUR
2009 1168 EUR
Poland 2010
2008 2910 4689 mZloty 697 / 1123 Slovenia 2010 23 90 EUR
2009 90 EUR
EU small markets: Production
Country Year Number of New Titles
New Titles per 1 m Inhabitants
Belgium 2010
2009 7945 743
Hungary 2010 12997 1300
2009 14447 1445
Netherlands 2010 23300 1412
2009 21337 1293
Poland 2010
2008 21740 571 Slovenia 2010 5621 2811
2009 6139 3070
Greece 2008 10631 984
Serbia 2009 4500 634
Emerging Markets: Sales
Country Year Publ's Rev‘s (m Domestic currency)
Market Value (m Domestic currency)
Currency
Brazil 2010 4505 m R$
2009 4167 m R$
China 2010 93000 RMB
2006 84000 RMB
Russia 2011 2300 USD
2010 2500 USD
2008 3000 USD
Emerging Markets: Production
Country Year Number of New Titles
New Titles per 1 m Inhabitants
Brazil 2010 54753 285 2009 43814 226
China 2010 189000 (new)
(328000 new+reed.) 245
2006 168296 Russia 2011 122915 866
2010 121700 857 2008 123300 868
Regional overview: Asia
Country Year Pub rev‘s (m, local curr.)
Market value (m local currency)
Currency Pub Rev‘s / Market (m€)
Number of titles published
Number of titles per million inhab’s
PR China 2010 93000 mRMB 10602 328000 245
India 2007 2500 US$ 1675 100000 87
Japan 2011 819800 mY 75810 595
2010 821300 mY 7129 74714 586
S. Korea 2009 3782047 mWON 2013 42191 863
2008 3576000 mWON 43099 824
Taiwan 2010 1600 mUS$ 1200
2008 50000 NTUS$ 1120 35000 1522
Thailand 2009 18800 mBaht 393 13607 201
Vietnam 2009 1453000 mVND 55 24589 299
Top global export nations (m local curr.)
Target 2005 2009 2010 2011 %
UK World 1.411 1.667 1.741 23,42%
US World (- Can, UK) 2.586 2.632 2.741 2.818 8,97%
France World (07) 694 665 704 1,5% Spain World 335 252 - 25%
Exports INTO emerging markets (local curr.)
Target 2005 2007 2010 2011 %
UK Brazil 4.800.000 15.629.128 225,61%
US Brazil 39.593.730 70.747.452 71.073.993 83.016.841 109,67%
FR Brazil 2.220.000 3.017.000
UK China 13.700.000 25.500.484 86,13%
US China 81.313.761 111.700.611 164.093.903 168.008.841 106,62%
FR China 1.255.000 2.841.000
UK India 19.900.000 32.633.069 63,99%
US India 38.709.885 80.258.983 57.175.337 57.342.181 48,13%
UK South
Korea 11.000.000 16.776.494 52,51%
US South
Korea 73.149.229 94.592.220 79.260.845 77.407.253 5,82%
UK Malaysia 5.500.000 6.113.115 11,15%
US Malaysia 14.093.422 24.111.601 19.714.463 24.279.323 72,27%
-20,00%
0,00%
20,00%
40,00%
60,00%
80,00%
100,00%
120,00%
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160,00%
180,00%
- €
20.000.000 €
40.000.000 €
60.000.000 €
80.000.000 €
100.000.000 €
120.000.000 €
140.000.000 €
UK & US Exports into selected emerging markets (in €)
2005 (€) 2011 (€) % in € (2005 - 2011)
-20,00%
0,00%
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- €
20.000.000 €
40.000.000 €
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80.000.000 €
100.000.000 €
120.000.000 €
140.000.000 €
UK & US Exports into selected emerging markets (in €)
2005 (€) 2011 (€) % in € (2005 - 2011)
???
0,00%
50,00%
100,00%
150,00%
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- €
5.000.000 €
10.000.000 €
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20.000.000 €
25.000.000 €
30.000.000 €
35.000.000 €
40.000.000 €
45.000.000 €
50.000.000 €
UK & US Exports into Arab countries (in €)
2010/2011 (€) % (2005 - 2011)
0,00%
50,00%
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- €
5.000.000 €
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25.000.000 €
30.000.000 €
35.000.000 €
40.000.000 €
45.000.000 €
50.000.000 €
UK & US Exports into Arab countries (in €)
2010/2011 (€) % (2005 - 2011)
!!!
US / UK imports into EU main markets
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70,00%
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US / UK imports into EU main markets
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2009
2011
% (2005 - 2011)
Country case study India
Unique market environment: Strong role of English Strong market presence of UK publishers Many local languages High share of educational (90%?) over trade (10?) Prominent role of the Indian government in educational
No official data Divide between private & public sector High fragmentation Patterns of emerging market (BRIC) New global players not yet arrived (e.g. Amazon) Imminent change by new game changing factors
60$ tablet (mid 2012) Flipkart
Country case study: Arab countries
300 m Arabic speakers, BUT High fragmentation by country Low literacy Low prestige of reading Low penetration of ‚knowledge drivers‘ Pragmatic constraints Censorship Political instability Piracy Lack of distribution infrastructure
No data available, except: Some production Ca. 15,000 new titles & reeditions per yr. (est., excl. Maghreb) Imports
Contraditory developments Growth of imports Decline of domestic sales
2 highly divergent trajectories: Gulf & Saudi Arabia All other Arab countries
Drivers of change: Emergence of a (small) media savy elite Mobile reading English reading
Outlook
Most wanted indicators & definitions
Publishers revenues
Market value
Background on specific market features (pricing policies, government involvement esp. sn education, ave. prices trade)
Import & export
Number of new titles
Number of copies sold
Next steps in data research and in developing „context“:
Broaden country base
Develop data history
Connect data by regions and clusters
Introduce general economic indicators (GDP, PPP)
Develop broader, reliable narrative
Partners
Sponsors
IPA
London Book Fair
BookExpo America
Input partners
National publishers associations
Fellow experts
Trade media
