Global Nitrogen Assessment: from Our Nutrient World to the

International Nitrogen Management System (INMS)

Mark Sutton Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Edinburgh

CAPER 40,

14 04 14 Lancaster

TFRN

Moninea Bog Natura 2000 Site

INI Nitrogen Assessments

• European Nitrogen Assessment (2011) • US Nitrogen Assessment (2012) • Africa, South Asia, Latin America, East

Asia (work in progress)

• What about global assessment?

Nature 14 April 2011

www.nine-esf.org/ENA

Nitrogen oxides (NOx)

Nitrous Oxide (N2O)

Ammonia (NH3)

Leached Nitrate (NO3

-)

Further emission of NOx & N2O

carrying on the cascade

Natural ecosystems

Ammonium nitrate in rain (NH4NO3)

Nitrate in streams, groundwater &

coastal seas

High temperature combustion & industry

Nr

Livestock farming for food

Nr in manure

Eventual denitrification

to N2

Simplified view of the Nitrogen Cascade

Unintended N flows

N form in the cascade

Terrestrial Eutrophication

Freshwater Eutrophication

Greenhouse gas balance

Particulate Matter

Tropospheric ozone formation

Stratospheric ozone loss

Soil acidification

Urban air quality

Marine Eutrophication Environmental

concern from Nr

Fertilizer manufacture

Crops for food & animal feed

Crop biological nitrogen fixation

Intended N flow

The five key threats of excess Nitrogen

The WAGES of too much nitrogen Water quality Air quality Greenhouse balance Ecosystems Soil quality

Nitrogen Damage Costs & Sources

Nature 14 April 2011 EU Damage cost: 70 - 320 billion € / year

Summary of N flows in Europe

Humannutrit.

agricult soils

Livestock farming

Atmospheric N2 pool

Crop production

Atmdepos

17.6

7.1

11.8

1.5

2.14.5

2.3

1.0

3.1

Net import of food & feed

2Crop N2fix

Fertilizers

11.23.8

NH3,NOx& N2O

emission

Denitrifi-cation

N2 fixindust

& traffic3.4

Export by rivers to the sea

Net atmosph. export

9.32.4

3.5

6.84

6

13.8

0.4

4.75.8

3.7

0.83.2

0.1

Semi-nat. soils

Nat N2fix

Wood exp.

Atmospheric NH3, NOx, N2O

wwt

Leaching & runoff

0.3

2.41.4

0.2

3.8

0.20.2

4.7

6

4

3

2

1

5

7

Nitrogen Science-Policy Engagement

UNECE Task Force Reactive Nitrogen of the CLRTAP – Gothenburg Options; Ammonia Guidance Document; Nitrogen Budgets, Nitrogen and Food; NECD support

UNEP: Global Partnership on Nutrient Management (GPNM)

UN Convention on Biological Diversity (Aichi N deposition indicator development)

OECD: Developing high level N indicators for economy – environment interactions

World Bank: Global Oceans Partnership: WG Nutrients – where should they invest?

• ...

UNECE Ammonia mitigation in the Gothenburg Protocol revision

• Ammonia Guidance Document – ECE/EB.AIR/120 at EB Decision 2012 L.9. – Coordinated with Gothenburg Protocol Annex IX – Publish and disseminate glossy version during 2014.

• Annex IX: left unchanged in GP review – Efforts needed from 2015, 2016...? – Key issues picked up again in European Commission’s

proposal for NECD revision (new NECD Annex III) – What would be an appropriate air quality limit value for

ammonia concentration?

5 priorities for ammonia in revision of the

UNECE Gothenburg Protocol (1=highest priority)

1. Low emission techniques for land spreading of cattle/pig/poultry manures and urea fertilizer

2. Animal feeding strategies, inc phase feeding 3. Covers on new slurry stores 4. Farm N balance on demonstration farms 5. Low emission new pig & poultry housing

Slurry spreading: a wide range of low-emission

techniques are available

The car and the exhaust pipe…

Splash Plate Spreader - 1950s technology

Trailing Shoe Slot Injector

Trailing Hose

EU benefit-cost ratios for NH3 and NOx mitigation

Van Grinsven et al. (Environmental Science and Technology, 2013)

NH3 NOx Commitment Agreed Geneva, May 2012

30% decrease in NOx 2% decrease in NH3

2010-2020

£650-a-year nitrogen pollution ‘could be reduced by eating less meat’ Press Comment on the European Nitrogen Assessment Metro 10 April 2011

Nitrogen and a Demitarian Europe? Example scenario of 50% consumption reduction

Aspect Unit Reference -50% meat, dairy and eggs Protein Average daily intake g cap-1 day-1 83 75 Proportion of animal origin % 60% 36% Red meat Average daily intake g cap-1 day-1 88 47 Compared with the RMDI % 207% 107%

Reference High prices scenario

Greening scenario

Environment Total losses of Nr (EU) Losses of NH3 N to air Losses of Nr to water Losses of N2O N to air

Gg year-1 6.5 2.8 3.3 0.4

4.1 1.6 2.1 0.3

3.8 (-42%) 1.6 (-43%) 2.0 (-39%) 0.2 (-45%)

GHG emissions (EU)4 Tg CO2eq yr-1 464 347 268 (-42%) ( NUE5 food system (EU) % 22 47 41 (+86%) Agriculture Soy imports (as beans) Tg year-1 34 8 8 (-76%) Cereal exports Tg year-1 3 174 54 (+1700%) Additional production of bioenergy EJ year-1 - - 2.3

Westhoek and the TFRN-EPNF (in press)

18 Feb 2013: Independent , Guardian, Herald Tribune, Times of India and 300 articles worldwide

UnintendedN fixation incombustion

NOx capture& reuse

NUE combustion 5

Humans

Nr input by combustion

Energy Consumption & Transport

Choices

4 8

Full Chain NUEN,PNutrientResource

N&P Fertilizer

& Biological NitrogenFixation

Manure & sewage

fertilizer products

NUE sewage NUE manures 3

7

Feedsharvest

Livestockproduction

Foodharvest

NUEfeedcrop

NUE food crop

NUE animal

Food Consumption& Diet Choices

NUE food supply

Humans

1

2

1

69

Humans

Crop NUEN,P

10

Spatial optimization & integration

“20:20 for 2020” 20% better NUE: saving 20 Mt N per yr by 2020

Benefits expressed here as N saving / ha per year (Full-chain NUE)

N saving as kg N per ha per yr

Bottom line for the Green Nutrient Economy ($billion/year) Net Benefit 170= Fert Saving 23 + Env+Health 160 –Implementation 12

How do we strengthen the global scientific support process?

• Key policy forum: UNEP Global Programme of Action for the protection of the marine environment from land-based activities (GPA).

• Other forums: CBD, FCCC, Montreal Protocol, CLRTAP, linking regional efforts, links to IPBES, IPCC.

• What science support should be provided...

Parallel Tracks

• Track 1: International governance involving countries and linking nitrogen challenges of too much and too little.

• Track 2: A better coordinated science-policy support process – gathering evidence to support decision makers (INMS)

• Track 3: Basic and applied field research • Track 4: Extension, training, action etc.

Outlook with UNEP and the Global Environment Facility (IW)

• Outline proposal ($6M + $40M partner contribs) • Global nitrogen cycle, toward the International

Nitrogen Management System (INMS) • Opportunities

- Indicator refinement, moving to operational delivery to support countries, inc benchmarking

- Sharing and development of mitigation and management practices – understanding barriers

- Regional demonstration on contrasting challenges, e.g. Lake Victoria basin, East Asia, South Asia, East Europe

Toward an International

Nitrogen Management

System (INMS)

GPA: Global Programme of Action for the Protection of the Marine Environment from Land-based Activities

FLAG STAG

PANS

Identified N Risks

-Too much- Too little

N Fluxes, Levels & Distribution-Water, Air, Land

-Agricultural-Industrial, -Trade

Extent of threatsWater, Air, Soil

Pollution, Climate, Biodiversity, Food &

Energy Security

Development of Indicators

Budgets & balances Efficiency IndicatorsKey Levels & Effects

Options for Action

-New Technologies-Efficiency measures

-Citizens choices

Measurements, data & statistics

Measurements, data & statistics

Hydrological,meteorological & bio-geochemical models

Biological & biogeochemical

models

System & Integrated Assessment Models

Data on Cost & Benefits

Valuation of benefits &

threats- Food, Energy & Environ security Programs &

Policy Options-Integration of key

messages-Linking global and regional analysis

Technical support to GPA-Report status & trends

-Options with costs-benefits-Successes & barriers

-Technical advice

Information exchange with other science-policy

processes & stakeholders:Inc. reporting of co-benefits to UNEP, CBD, IPCC/FCCC, IPBES, FAO, WHO, UNECE and other

regional conventions etc

Monitor Progress Successes & limitations

Evaluation of barriers to change

Technical, financial & socio-political data

BID

CBAG

STOAG

Scenarios& Goals

New technologies & other options;

Pilot Demonstration

Next steps • INMS at project preparation phase, developing

through 2014 to start 2015. Preparatory action on developing global nitrogen integrated assessment

• An INI project with UNEP, OECD, GPA, GPNM, CBD, CLRTAP, Montreal Protocol, Future Earth etc

• Should improving full-chain NUE be embedded in the Millenium Development Goals?

• Could your country become a nitrogen champion in the international arena? e.g. OECD 2016 – why would your Finance Minister be at the table?