Global livestock trends – the past may not always predict the future

John McDermottDeputy Director General - Research

United States National Academy of SciencesBoard of Agriculture and Natural Resources MeetingMay 12, 2010

Global Livestock Trends and shaping the future

1. Global trends in meat and milk

2. Main drivers of demand and supply

3. Livestock and their implications for greenhouse gases

4. What might change in future?

5. Future choices

Global Livestock Trends and shaping the future

1. Global trends in meat and milk

2. Main drivers of demand and supply

3. Livestock and their implications for greenhouse gases

4. What might change in future?

5. Future choices

Global Meat Trends 1990-2009 Production and Trade

Global Milk Trends 1981-2018 Production

As people get richer they consume more animal products

Steinfeld et al 2006

1962 1970 1980 1990 2000 2003

Consumption Kg/person/year

Cereals 132 145 159 170 161 156

Roots and tubers 18 19 17 14 15 15

Starchy roots 70 73 63 53 61 61

Meat 10 11 14 19 27 29

Milk 28 29 34 38 45 48

Consumption of livestock products in the developing World is projected to increase even faster

IAASTD 2007

Revised demand for livestock products to 2050

Rosegrant et al 2009

Annual per capita consumption

Total consumption

year Meat (kg) Milk (kg) Meat (Mt) Milk (Mt)

Developing 20022050

2844

4478

137326

222585

Developed 20022050

7894

202216

102126

265295

Smallholders predominate and 80% population are “farmers”

Livestock products contribute to 17% of the global kilocalorie consumption and 33% of the protein consumption (FAOSTAT 2008)

Livestock provide food for at least 830 million food insecure people (Gerber et al 2007)

Significant global differences in kilocalorie consumption but… highest rates of increase in consumption of livestock products in the developing World.

Europe - 2000

10%

11%

5%

31%5%

1%

37%

Meat

Dairy

Fruit & Vegetables

Cereals

Roots & Tubers

Dryland crops

Others

Livestock and livelihoods

SSA - 2000

3%

3%

4%

47%16%

3%

24%Meat

Dairy

Fruit & Vegetables

Cereals

Roots & Tubers

Dryland crops

Others

Herrero et al 2008a

Global Livestock Trends and shaping the future

1. Global trends in meat and milk

2. Main drivers of demand and supply

3. Livestock and their implications for greenhouse gases

4. What might change in future?

5. Future choices

Population Growth in Developing and Industrialized Countries: 1750 - 2050

12

A strong increase in demand for meat and milk as income grows

0

1

2

3

4

5

4 5 6 7 8 9 11Log per capita GNP

Log

per

cap

ita

con

sum

pti

on

of

meat

Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution, a joint IFPRI, FAO, ILRI study.

10

China

India

Trend

The Livestock Revolution:

Rates of production of animal products increase at significantly faster rates….

Annual rates of change - beef production 2000-2030

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total

%

AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries

Annual rates of change - milk production 2000-2030

0123456789

CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total

%

AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries

Increased consumptionIncreased incomes

…but increased pressure on resources (land, feeds, etc)

Growing industrialisation….

The Livestock Revolution: The Livestock Revolution: Growth in meat mainly in Growth in meat mainly in

industrial systemsindustrial systems

Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution, a joint IFPRI, FAO, ILRI study.

Growth Rates (%/Y) of Meat Production in Different Production Systems in Developing Countries

-5%0%5%

10%15%20%

Asia SSA WANA CSA

grazing systems

mixed systems

industrial systems

Over the past twenty-five years developing countries contributed nearly three-quarters of global consumption gains for both meat and dairy

.....in dairy 80% of production increase came from smallholders

Global Milk Trends 1981-2018 Production

When it was all holding together…

Wood et al. 2005

…it might still do…but we need to target appropriate investments and ‘do the right thing’

The feed grain challenge

17

Coarse Grain Area

Coarse Grain Feed

Meat Production

Meat production growth, mainly pigs and poultry, exceeds feed growth raisingquestions about long term sustainability of feed supplies.

Index: 1980-1990=1

ETHANOL PRODUCTION BIODIESEL PRODUCTION

Mostly from grain feedstocks – except for Brazil Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2017

Millions of gallons

Millions of gallons

Real world cereal prices projected to rise 30-40 percent Real world cereal prices projected to rise 30-40 percent beyond current high levels (IMPACT model)beyond current high levels (IMPACT model)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Pri

ce

(U

S$

/mt)

Rice Wheat Maize Other grain Soybean

CerealsCereals

Source: IFPRI

Real world meat prices projected to rise 20-30 percent beyond Real world meat prices projected to rise 20-30 percent beyond current high levels (IMPACT model)current high levels (IMPACT model)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Pri

ce

(U

S$

/mt)

Beef Pork Lamb Poultry

MeatMeat

Source: IFPRI

Increasing land and water constraints (WDR, 2008)

LACECA

MENA

EAP

SA

SSA

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1961

1967

1973

1979

1985

1991

1997

2003

Inde

x of

cro

plan

d pe

r ag

pop

ulat

ion

(196

1=10

0)

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

SSA SA EAP MENA ECA LAC

Perc

ent

(%)

% of population in absolute water scarcity

Cropland per capita of agricultural population

Rates of cereal production due to water and other constraints in places

Annual changes in Cereal Production2000 - 2030

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total

%

AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries

Rates of growth of mixed intensive similar to developed countriesCatching up

Rates lower than those of population growth

W. Africa 1966 – pastoral system 2004 – crop-livestock system

An example of the changing nature of livestock systems

Courtesy of B. Gerard

… and then there’s climate change

Thornton et al 2006

Global Livestock Trends and shaping the future

1. Global trends in meat and milk

2. Main drivers of demand and supply

3. Livestock and their implications for greenhouse gases

4. What might change in future?

5. Future choices

Production fertilisants N

Energie fossile ferme

Déforestation

Sol cultivé

Désertification pâturages

Transformation

Transport

Fermentation ruminale

Effluents, stockage/traitement

Epandage fertilisants N

Production légumineuses

Effluents, stockage/traitement

Effluents, épandage/dépôt

Effluents, emission indirecte

CO2

CH4

N2O

Deforestation

Enteric

fermentation

Man

ure

mgt

Chemical N. fert. production

On-farm fossil fuel

Deforestation

OM release from ag. soils

Pasture degradation

Processing fossil fuel

Transport fossil fuel

Enteric fermentation

Manure storage / processing

N fertilization

Legume production

Manure storage / processing

Manure spreading / dropping

Manu indirect emissions

Livestock and GHG: 18%? of global emissions

Prepared by Bonneau, 2008

Mitigation and adaptation in livestock systems

Herrero et al 2009

Adaptation and mitigation have to go hand in hand……. to generate win/win solutions, especially for poor countries with low carbon footprints

Significant adaptation needs as systems change to meet demand for livestock products and/or become more resilient to climate change

Significant mitigation in livestock systems required for meeting future increased demand for livestock products, both in production and processing, under carbon-constrained markets (real costing of externalities for rich and BRIC countries)

Mitigation options

Reducing emissions: significant potential!

Managing demand for animal products (C-taxes) Improvements in ruminant production – large

production gaps for ruminants in developing world Reduction of animal numbers; shift in animal species Reduced livestock-induced deforestation, moving

animals from wetter to drier areas Feed additives to reduce enteric fermentation Manure management (feed additives, methane

production, regulations for manure disposal)Herrero and Thornton 2009, Herrero et al. 2009

Global Livestock Trends and shaping the future

1. Global trends in meat and milk

2. Main drivers of demand and supply

3. Livestock and their implications for greenhouse gases

4. What might change in future?

5. Future choices

What might change in future?

1. Dramatic change in relative prices of grain to meat (ruminants versus monogastrics)

2. High values placed on environmental and / or social (equity) externalities Favor poor versus richer countries Favor dry versus wetter areas

3. Consolidation and foreign direct investment in agriculture in Africa (“land grab”)

4. Investments in sustainable intensification of smallholder agriculture

Globally, most people are (and will be) in mixed crop – livestock

systemsarea ( million km2)

35.2

14

16.9

9.8

agro-pastoral

mixed extensive

mixed intensive

other

population (millions)

295.1

1099.2

2674

480.3

Mixed systems produce 65% beef, 75% milk and 55% of lamb in the developing World

Mixed systems produce almost 50% of the cereals of the World and the share will increase to over 60% by 2030

Can we untap the potential for carbon sequestration in rangeland systems?

Potential for carbonsequestration in rangelands(Conant and Paustian 2002)

•Largest land use system

•Potentially a large C sink

•Could be an important income diversification source

Difficulties in:

•Measuring and monitoring C stocks

•Establishment of payment schemes

•Dealing with mobile pastoralists

Global Livestock Trends and shaping the future

1. Global trends in meat and milk

2. Main drivers of demand and supply

3. Livestock and their implications for greenhouse gases

4. What might change in future?

5. Future choices

Some key trade-offs

• Biomass: food, feed, fuel and conservation agriculture

• Sustainability – socio-economic versus environmental and how are these valued (“multi-value” approach)

• Choices about where and how we raise animals– Wetter versus drier areas– Ruminants versus monogastrics– Moving towards moderate intensity systems

International Livestock Research Institute

Better lives through livestockAnimal agriculture to reduce poverty, hunger and environmental degradation in developing countries

www.ilri.org