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GlobalEnergyDynamics

aDataAnalysisProject

---PanagiotisPodiotis

UniversityofMacedonia

DepartmentofInternationalandEuropeanStudies

Thessaloniki,Greece

*Preparedforthecourse“EnergyandMiddleEast”,SupervisorProfessorZarrasKonstantinos.

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ThepresentpapercanbeconsideredaDataAnalysisproject.Energy-relateddatawithintheCIAWorldFactbook(hereinafterFactbook)(CIA,2019,p.About)wereexplored.TheFactbook1waschosenasthesourceofdataforthisprojectforthefollowingreasons:

1. Itprovidesabigvolumeofdataacrossavarietyofsectors2.2. HighconfidencecanbeplacedonthedatasincetheCIAisoneofthemostrecognizedandprestigiousUSgovernmentalagenciesspecializingonintelligence.3. Dataareopen-sourceandavailablefordownload.4. TheauthorhasworkedextensivelywiththeFactbookbyhavingconverteditindatasetformat(Podiotis,2020)andbyhavingconductedvariousMLsub-projectswithit.5. ThereisagenerallackofextensivedatasetswhichcoverInternationalRelationtopicsinsuchawholisticmanner.

DataScienceprovideswithalmostendlessresearchapproaches.Inanefforttolimitthescopeofthepaperandincreasethequalityofresearch,itwasdecidedthatfewspecifictaskswillbeperformedandalwaysinregardtoenergy-relateddata:

1. Comparative Data Visualizations between Factbook’s Regions (Continents). Visualizations will cover cumulative and averaged resource reserves, production, imports, exports andelectricityproductionsources.

2. Variousimplementationsofclusteringcoveringdifferentsubgroupsofdata,regionsandultimatelycountries.

Byfulfillingtheobjectivesdescribedabove,theauthoraimsto:

1. Laythegroundforfutureresearchandhypothesiswiththefindingsofthispaper.2. Providewithabetterunderstandingofglobaldynamics.3. Uncoverthestructureoftheworld(andcountries)intermsofenergy.Moreover,keyregionsandcountrieswillbeuncovered.

Allof theabovetaskswereoutwiththehelpofPython3.7&3.8(PythonFoundation,2001)programming language,withintheJetBrainsPyCharmCommunityEdition2019.2.2x64(JetBrains,2000)IntegratedDevelopmentEnvironment.

1Thelatestavailableversion(2018version,uploadedonJan04,201901:51PM–downloaded15/05/2020)oftheCIAWorldFactbookwhichwasdownloadedthroughtheofficialwebportalwasused.2TheFactbookcovers12thematicareasforeachentry(country),namely:History,PeopleandSociety,Government,Economy,Energy,Geography,Communications,Transportation,Military,Terrorism,TransnationalIssues.EachThematicarea(category)consistsofnumerousfieldsprovidingnumericortextualdatapoints.

ThisPaper

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AlldatausedinthispaperaredrawnfromtheCIAWorldFactbook.Thelatestavailableversion(2018version,uploadedonJan04,201901:51PM–downloaded15/05/2020)oftheCIAWorldFactbookwhichwasdownloadedthroughtheofficialwebportalwasused.TheFactbookwasconvertedintoadatasetbydownloadingandprocessingdatafromitsonlineversion3inwhich certain missing values were imputed with a Mean Average Percentage Error smaller than 15%. The Dataset is in a two-dimensional table format with individual entities(countries/territories)beingtherowsandcolumnsrepresentingdifferentdata(ex.GDP,Populationetc.).Morethanfortycolumnscontaindatarelateddirectlyorindirectlytoenergyoutofwhich fourteenwere selected for the present paper. The 2018 version of the CIAWorld Factbook consists of data drawnduring the period 2015-2018. The classification of countries intoregions/continentswasadopteddirectlyfromtheFactbook.Specifically:

Table1-Factbook'sRegionsandrespectivecountries.

CentralAmerica(32) MiddleEast(19) S.Asia(8) Africa(55) Europe(51) Oceania(26) S.America(13)

N.America(6)

E./S.E.Asia(21) CentralAsia(6)

Aruba,AntiguaAndBarbuda,Anguilla,Barbados,Bahamas,The,Belize,CaymanIslands,CostaRica,Cuba,Dominica,DominicanRepublic,ElSalvador,Grenada,Guatemala,Haiti,Honduras,Jamaica,Montserrat,SintMaarten,Nicaragua,Panama,SaintMartin,PuertoRico,SaintKittsAndNevis,SaintLucia,SaintBarthelemy,TrinidadAndTobago,TurksAndCaicosIslands,Curacao,SaintVincentAndTheGrenadines,BritishVirginIslands,VirginIslands

UnitedArabEmirates,Azerbaijan,Armenia,Bahrain,Georgia,GazaStrip,Iran,Israel,Iraq,Jordan,Kuwait,Lebanon,Oman,Qatar,SaudiArabia,Syria,Turkey,WestBank,Yemen

Afghanistan,Bangladesh,Bhutan,SriLanka,India,Maldives,Nepal,Pakistan

Algeria,Angola,Botswana,Benin,Burundi,Chad,Congo,DRCongo,Cameroon,Comoros,CentralAfricanRepublic,CaboVerde,Djibouti,Egypt,EquatorialGuinea,Eritrea,Ethiopia,Gambia,The,Gabon,Ghana,Guinea,CoteD’Ivoire,Kenya,Liberia,Lesotho,Libya,Madagascar,Malawi,Mali,Morocco,Mauritius,Mauritania,Mozambique,Niger,Nigeria,SouthSudan,Guinea-Bissau,Rwanda,Seychelles,SouthAfrica,Senegal,SaintHelena,Ascension,AndTristanDaCunha,SierraLeone,Somalia,Sudan,Togo,SaoTomeAndPrincipe,Tunisia,Tanzania,Uganda,BurkinaFaso,Namibia,Eswatini,Zambia,Zimbabwe

Albania,Andorra,Austria,Belgium,BosniaAndHerzegovina,Belarus,Bulgaria,Cyprus,Denmark,Ireland,Estonia,Czechia,Finland,FaroeIslands,France,Gibraltar,Guernsey,Germany,Greece,Croatia,Hungary,Iceland,IsleOfMan,Italy,Jersey,Kosovo,Latvia,Lithuania,Slovakia,Liechtenstein,Luxembourg,Moldova,Montenegro,Macedonia,Monaco,Malta,Netherlands,Norway,Poland,Portugal,Serbia,Romania,Slovenia,SanMarino,Spain,Svalbard,Sweden,Switzerland,UnitedKingdom,Ukraine,HolySee(VaticanCity)

AmericanSamoa,Australia,SolomonIslands,Cocos(Keeling)Islands,NorthernMarianaIslands,CookIslands,Fiji,Micronesia,FederatedStatesOf,FrenchPolynesia,Guam,Kiribati,ChristmasIsland,NewCaledonia,Niue,NorfolkIsland,Vanuatu,Nauru,NewZealand,PitcairnIslands,Palau,MarshallIslands,Tokelau,Tonga,Tuvalu,WallisAndFutuna,Samoa

Argentina,Bolivia,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Ecuador,FalklandIslands(IslasMalvinas),Guyana,Suriname,Paraguay,Peru,Uruguay,Venezuela

Bermuda,Canada,Greenland,Mexico,SaintPierreandMiquelon,UnitedStates

Burma,Brunei,Cambodia,China,HongKong,Indonesia,Japan,Korea,North,Korea,South,Laos,Macau,Mongolia,Malaysia,ParacelIslands,PapuaNewGuinea,Philippines,Singapore,Thailand,Timor-Leste,Taiwan,Vietnam

Kyrgyzstan,Kazakhstan,Russia,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan

3Fortechnicaldetailssee(Podiotis,2020).

TheData

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Outofallenergydatacolumns,fifteenwereselectedforanalysisinthescopeofthispaper.Thesecolumnscoverfivethematicgroupsdescribedbelow.

Table2-Project'sDataCategoriesandColumns.

Reserves(Proved)

Production Exports Imports ElectricityProductionSources Ports&Terminals Pipelines

Gas,Oil Oil,Gas,RefinedPetroleumProducts

Oil,Gas,RefinedPetroleumProducts

Oil,Gas,RefinedPetroleumProducts

FossilFuels,Nuclear,Hydroelectric,Other/Renewable

LNG(import),LNG(export),Oil Condensate(gas),Gas,LPG,Oil,Oil/Gas/Water

AllenergyquantitiesaremeasuredinGigaJoulesforuniformityandeaseofcomparison.TheCIAmeasuresoilproduction,exportsandimportsinbarrelsperday(bbl/day)andgasinyear-cumulativecubicmeters.Allappropriateconversionshavebeenmade.

ClusteringwasdonewithMeanShift4inordertoremoveallpossiblebiasinclustercreation.Dataweretransformedtothesamemetricandthenscaledbeforeclustering.Descriptivestatistics (mean,standarddeviation,percentiles)wereusedtostudyeachcluster.Allof theabovewere implementedwith librariessklearn (scikit-learndevelopers,2020)andpandas (WesMcKinneyandthePandasDevelopmentTeam,2020).Visualizationsweredonematplotlib(Hunter,2007).

Region-cumulativedataprovidewithageneraldescriptionof theglobaldynamics.Cautionshouldbegivenwhengeneralizationsbetweenregionandcountry-levelassumptionsaremade

4MeanShiftisanunsupervisedmachinelearningalgorithmwhichperformsclusteranalysis.Itsadvantageisthefactthatitautomaticallydetectsclustersbasedondensitythuseliminatingauthor’sbias.

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ProvedReserves

TheMiddleEasthasbyfarthebiggestprovenreservesofbothnaturalgasandcrudeoil.ItisimportanttonotethattheMiddleEastnotonlyhasthequantitativeadvantageintermsofresourcesbutalsothequalitativeone.ThisisduetothefactthatMiddleEasternoilislocatednearthegroundandcanbeextractedeasierwithlowerfixedcosts.ThisgeomorphologicalcharacteristiclargelycontributestotheeasewithwhichGulfstatesweaponizeoilprices.

Whentheamountofresourcesisdividedbythenumberofcountriesintherespectiveregion,thepicturechanges.CentralAsiancountriesareboostedtothefirstplaceinregardstonaturalgaswhilethedifferencebetweentheMiddleEastandSouth,NorthAmericadecreases.ThismeansthatresourcesintheMiddleEastaremoreunevenlydistributedbetweencountries.ThisisthecasewithGulfMonarchieswhichpossesthemajorityofcrudeoilreserves.SuchisthecasewithAfricawhichisformedbymanycountriesoutofwhichfewpossessimportantreserves.

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ResourceProduction

TheMiddleEastoutnumberseveryothercontinentintermsofcumulativecrudeoilproduction.Interestingly,itsrefinedpetroleumproductsproductionisrelativelylow.MiddleEasterncountriesandprivatesectoraremorewillingtosimplyextractcrudeoilandthenexportitratherthantoinvestinrefininginfrastructure.Theprofitabilityofthispolicyshouldbefurtherexamined.Europehasahighlevelofrefinedproducts,probablyduetothetechnologicallyintensecharacterofEUeconomies.

Theaveragedgraphrevealsmoreinformationonthematter.CentralAmericaappearstobetheomnipotentregionintermsofproduction.Itssixmembercountries(Kyrgyzstan,Kazakhstan,Russia,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan)areallproducersandsomeofthem(Russia,Turkmenistan,Uzbekistanwhenitcomestonaturalgas)occupytopglobalpositions.MiddleEasternproductionisonceagainunevenlydistributed(sinceitbecomescomparativelysmallerintheaveragedgraph).Interestingly,refinementisalsounequallydistributedinEurope.NorthAmericaandEast/SoutheastAsiaremainrelativelyunchanged(exceptrefinementinSoutheastAsia)suggestinghomogeneityoftheirmembers.

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Imports

NOTE:RegionalImportswerecalculatedbasedoneachindividualcountry’simports.Thus,theyalsoreflectintraregionaltrade.

East/SoutheastAsiaandEuropearethelargestimportersofcrudeoil,gasandrefinedproducts.Consideringtheproductionoftheseregionspresentedabove,itcanbeassumedthatinbothcasesrefinedproductsimportsareintraregional.Moreover,consideringEast/SoutheastAsia’slargerproductionofcrudeoilandgascomparedtoEuropewecanassumethatEuropeanisthebiggestimporterofenergy.America(Central,SouthandNorth)enjoysahighlevelofenergyautonomy.MiddleEasternimportsreflectintraregionaltrade.CentralAsiancountriesarehighlyhomogenousinregardstoenergyresources.Thisisprobablythereasonwhyimportsarealmostnullwhileproduction(bothcumulativeandaveraged)ishigh.Thereseemstobeanabsenceoftradebothinterandintra-regional.

Thecountry-averageddatabringSouthAsiatothespotlight.SouthAsiahassomeofthesmallestreservesandproductionworldwide,yetitsmembersimportthebiggestamountofcrudeoil(averaged).SouthAsiaisplaguedbylackofregionalcooperationandenergyproductionpotentialandresources.

KeyTakeAway:

-Intraregionaltradeshouldbeconsideredwhentradeisstudied.Itcanprovideanindexofcooperation.

-SouthAsiaisthemostenergydependentregionwiththehighestvulnerabilityfollowedbeEurope.

-Europeanenergydemandisdistributedbetweenitsmanystates.ItsdependencytoRussiaforgascomplicatesthepoliticalrealities.Yet,eventhoughEuropeanenergysecurityisheavilyreferencedinliteraturefewfocusonSouthAsianwhichlooksgrimmer.

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ExportsNOTE:RegionalExportswerecalculatedbasedoneachindividualcountry’sexports.Thus,theyalsoreflectintraregionaltrade.

MiddleEastisthelargestexporterofcrudeoilandEuropeofrefinedpetroleumproductswhicharemostlydistributedinternally(EU).AfricaisalsoanimportantexporterofcrudeoilwhichmovesfrompooroilproducingcountriestotherichWest.

Country-averageddatasuggestthatCentralAsiancountriesarecollectivelystrongerexportersofnaturalgasandcrudeoilwhencomparedtotheMiddleEastwhereresourcesaremoreunevenlydistributed.ThesameappliestoEuropewhererefiningcapabilitiesaredifferentbetweentheindustrializednorthandthepoorerBalkancountries.

KeyTakeAway:

-Intraregionaltradeshouldbeconsideredwhentradeisstudied.Itcanprovideanindexofcooperation.

-TheMiddleEastisbyfarthebiggestexporterofcrudeoilandcentralAsiaofnaturalgas(Europeangasexportsrefermostlytointernal-EUtrade).

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ElectricityProductionSources

NOTE:TheCIAWorldFactbookexpressesenergyproductionsourcesasapercentageoftotalenergyproduction.Specialattentionshouldbegiventotheinterpretationoftheassociatedgraphswhichexpressqualitativeandnotquantitativedata.

Europeistheonlycontinentwithconsiderableamountofnuclearenergy.CentralAsia,NorthAmerican,SouthAsianandMiddleEasterncountriesalsomakeuseofnuclearsourcesbuttoalesserdegree(bothcumulativeandaveraged).Fossilfuelsremainthepredominantsourceofelectricityproductioninallcontinents.SouthAsiaandSouthAmericabothmakeextensiveuseofnaturalgas.Overall,Europeappearstobethemostdiversifiedcontinentandthegreatestuserofrenewablesources.Moreover,theEUiswillingtofurtherexpanditsenergydiversificationandincreaseitsrenewablesourcespercentagewhilecuttingfossilfuels.

Thedifferencebetweencountry-averageddataandregioncumulativeshowsthehomogeneitybetweenthecountriesofeachregioninregardtoenergyproduction.MiddleEast,SouthAsiaandCentralAsiaseemtohavethelowesthomogeneitybetweentheirmembersintermsofenergyproductionsources.

KeyTakeAway:

-Thesegraphsexpressqualitativeandnotquantitativedata.

-Europeisthemostdiversifiedregionintermsofenergyproduction.

-MiddleEast,SouthAsia,CentralAsiahavelowhomogeneityintheirmemberstates’electricityproductionsourcesreflectingaplethoraofdifferenteconomies,technologicaladvancementandpoliciesbetweentheirmemberstates.

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PortsandTerminalsNOTE:Thenumberofportsandterminalsissubjectivesinceitdoesnotexplainthevolumeofresourcestransferredthrougheach.Itmerelyshowstheextendofexistinginfrastructure.

Interestingly,bothEuropeandEast/SoutheastAsiaarenotmajorgasproducersyettheypossessthemostportsandterminals.Thiscanbeattributedtotheirgeographiclocationwhichservesasahubforglobaltrade.Theexport-orientedeconomiesofAfrica(duetolowconsumptionandlackofstrongmarkets)justifiesthenumberofterminalscoveringbothoilandLNG.TheMiddleEasthasanextremelysmallnumberofterminalsduetoitsgeography(pipelinesfavored),thelackofintraregionaltradeandalsobecauseofitsproximitywithEurope.Americanregionsaremoreoilintense.

Thecountry-averageddatadonotchallengeorchangethelandscapepaintedbythecumulativegraph.

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Pipelines

NOTE:Pipelinetypesareclassifieddifferentlyinvariouscountries.Cautionintheinterpretationofdataisadvised.Moreover,pipelinelengthdoesnotnecessarilyreflectthevolumeofresourcestransferred.

EuropehasthelengthiestgaspipelineinfrastructurefollowedbyCentralAsia.Gaspipelinesoutnumberoilglobally.LPGpipelinesareextensiveonlyinNorthAmericaandingreatlengthscomparedtootherpipelines.

TheCountry-AveragedatasuggestthatpipelinesinEuropearedistributedintofewcountries(hencethediscrepancybetweencumulativelengthandaverage).ThisisnotthecaseforCentralandNorthAmericawherepipelinescovermostofthecountries.

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Table3-ClusteringofRegions(Reserves,Production)

Group(numberofregions) Regions CommentsA.(6) Central

America,S.Asia,Africa,Oceania,S.America,N.America

-SmalltoMediumoilreserves/Smalltononegasreserves-SmalltoMediumproductionofcrudeoil/SmalltoMediumproductionofrefinedproducts/SmallproductionofnaturalgasGenerally,oil-orientedregions.

B.(1) MiddleEast -Biggestoilreserves/Biggestgasreserves-Highestproductionofcrudeoil/Mediumproductionofrefinedproducts/Highproductionofnaturalgas.Strongestoverallreserves,mostextensiveproduction,relativelysmallproductionrefinedpetroleumproducts(discussedaboveintherespectivesection)

C(2) Europe,E./S.E.Asia

-Smalloilreserves/Smallgasreserves-Smallproductionofcrudeoil/Highproductionofrefinedproducts/SmalltoMediumproductionofnaturalgas.BiggestportionofproductionandreservesisattributedtoEast/SoutheastAsia.Bothoftheregionsareconnectedbytheirveryhighproductionofrefinedpetroleumproductsandcomparativelymedium(forEast/SoutheastAsia)tosmall(forEurope)reservesandproduction.Moreover,consideringthecountrycompositionofE./S.E.AsiawecannotavoidobservingthetechnologicaldiscrepancybetweenthemandofEuropeancountries.Doestechnologicaladvancementandqualityofhumancapitalaffectrefinedpetroleumproductproduction?Furtherresearchissuggestedonthematter.

D.(1) CentralAsia -Smalloilreserves/Biggasreserves-Mediumproductionofcrudeoil/MediumtoSmallproductionofrefinedproducts/Highestproductionofnaturalgas.Consideringthesizeofreservesandthevolumeofproduction,itcanbeassumedthatCentralAsiancountriesmakefulluseoftheirreservesbymaintainingmediumtohighproductionacrossalltypesofenergyresourcessecuringbigamountsofincome.Theoutcomeofsuchaproduction-intensiveapproachshouldbestudiedonthelongtermbyconsideringtheratesofproductioncomparativelytotheexistingprovedreserveamounts.Isthereanimminentdangerofresourcedepletion?Whatwouldbethetimeframe?

InterregionalClustering(Reserves&Production)

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Table4-ClusteringofRegions(Reserves,Production,Imports,Exports)

Group(numberofregions) Regions CommentsA.(6) CentralAmerica,

S.Asia,Africa,Oceania,S.America,N.America

Allregionsinthisgrouparecharacterizedbymediumtolowreserves,productions,importsandexports.

B.(1) MiddleEast TheexactoppositeofEurope.Massivereservesandproduction(exceptrefinedpetroleumproducts)andafullyexports-orientedeconomy.C(1) Europe Probablythemostimportintenseregion.Europeimportsthebiggestamountsofmostresourcesandonlyproducesandexportsrefined

petroleumproducts,importantpartofwhichendupinEU(developedintraregional)markets.D.(1) E./S.E.Asia Producesthehighestnumberofrefinedproductsbuthastoimportbigpercentageofcrudeoil.Mostoftheproducedrefinedproductsare

circulatedwithintheregionreducingtheoverallexportstoamedium-lowlevel.Similaristhecasefornaturalgas.E.(1) CentralAsia Themostproductionintensiveregionconsideringitsreservesandtherelativeproduction.TheMiddleEastmayhavehigheroilproduction

butitalsohasconsiderablylargeroilreserves.CentralAsiaisclearlyexports-oriented(mediumvolumeofexportsbutalmostzeroimports).Aspiringcountriespursuingfasteconomicgrowth.

InterregionalClustering(Reserves&Production&Trade)

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Table5-ClusteringofRegions(Reserves,Production,Imports,Exports,ElectricityProductionSources)

Group(numberofregions) Regions CommentsA.(5) CentralAmerica,

S.Asia,Oceania,S.America,N.America

Balancedregionsintermsofreserves,production,imports,exportsandelectricityproductionsources.Theseregionscoverthewholelowtomediumspectrumoftheaforementionedfactors.Nooutstandingvaluesorextremes.

B.(1) MiddleEast Biggestoilandgasreserves,highestoilproductionandverylargegasproduction.Totallyexports-oriented.Electricityproductionreliantonfossilfuelswithverylimitedrenewablesources,hydroelectricandnuclearpower.

C.(1) Africa Themostheavilyreliantregiononfossilfuelsandhydroelectricpowerforelectricitygeneration.Highimportandexportratesofsameresourcesprobablyindicateintensiveintraregionaltradeand/orlogisticshubforglobaltrade.

D.(1) Europe Thebiggestuserofrenewablesourcesandnuclearpower.Importantproducerofrefinedpetroleumproducts,commercialhubforallresourceswithaplethoraofports,terminalsandpipelines.

E.(1) E./S.E.Asia Electricityproductiondistributedacrossvarioussources.Importantproducerofrefinedpetroleumproducts.Importsoriented.SimilarprofiletoEuropebutclusteredseparatelyduetolackofexports.

F.(1) CentralAsia Primarilycenteredaroundtheproductionandexportofnaturalgasalongwithmediumamountsofcrudeoil.Balancedproductionofelectricity.

OverallInterregionalClustering

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Table6-ClusteringofCountries(Reserves,Production,Imports,Exports,ElectricityProductionSources)

Group(Numberofcountries)

Regions Comments(basedondescriptivestatistics)

A. (159) Aruba, Antigua And Barbuda, United Arab Emirates, Afghanistan, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Armenia, American Samoa, Argentina,Australia,Austria,Bahrain,Barbados,Botswana,Bermuda,Bahamas,The,Bangladesh,Belize,BosniaAndHerzegovina,Bolivia,Burma, Benin, Belarus, Solomon Islands, Brunei, Cambodia, Chad, Sri Lanka, Congo, Republic Of The, Chile, Cayman Islands,Cameroon,Comoros,CentralAfricanRepublic,Cuba,CaboVerde,CookIslands,Cyprus,Denmark,Djibouti,Dominica,DominicanRepublic,Ecuador,Egypt, Ireland,EquatorialGuinea,Estonia,Eritrea,ElSalvador,Czechia,Fiji,FalklandIslands(IslasMalvinas),FaroeIslands,FrenchPolynesia,Gambia,The,Gabon,Georgia,Ghana,Gibraltar,Grenada,Greenland,Guam,Greece,Guatemala,Guinea,Guyana,Haiti,HongKong,Honduras,Croatia,Hungary, Indonesia, Israel,"CoteD’Ivoire", Iraq, Jamaica, Jordan,Kenya,Korea,North,Kiribati, Kuwait,Kosovo,Kazakhstan, Lebanon, Latvia, Lithuania, Liberia, Libya,Madagascar,Macau,Montserrat,Macedonia, Mali, Morocco, Mauritius, Mauritania, Malta, Oman, Maldives, Mexico, Malaysia, New Caledonia, Niue, Niger,Vanuatu,Nigeria,Nauru,Suriname,Nicaragua,NewZealand,SouthSudan,Peru,Pakistan,Poland,Panama,Portugal,PapuaNewGuinea, Guinea-Bissau, Serbia, Romania, Philippines, Puerto Rico, Rwanda, Saint Pierre AndMiquelon, Saint Kitts And Nevis,Seychelles,SouthAfrica,Senegal,SaintHelena,Ascension,AndTristanDaCunha,SierraLeone,Somalia,SaintLucia,Sudan,Syria,Trinidad And Tobago, Thailand, Turks And Caicos Islands, Tonga, Togo, Sao Tome And Principe, Tunisia, Turkey, Taiwan,Turkmenistan, Tanzania,Ukraine,BurkinaFaso,Uruguay,Uzbekistan, SaintVincentAndTheGrenadines,BritishVirgin Islands,Vietnam,VirginIslands,Namibia,WestBank,Samoa,Eswatini,Yemen,Zimbabwe

Countriesheavilyreliantonfossilfuelsforelectricityproduction.Lackofdiversityregardingsources.Lowtomediumproductionofresourcesandimports/exports.

B. (22) Albania,Angola,Brazil,Bhutan,Burundi,Congo,DemocraticRepublicofThe,Colombia,CostaRica,Ethiopia,Iceland,Kyrgyzstan,Laos,Lesotho,Malawi,Montenegro,Mozambique,Norway,Nepal,Paraguay,Tajikistan,Uganda,Zambia

Extensiveuseofhydroelectricpower.Mediumproductionofresources.Mostlyexports-oriented.

C. (8) Belgium,Bulgaria,Slovakia,Luxembourg,Spain,Sweden,Timor-Leste,UnitedKingdom Strongrenewablesourceelectricityproductionsector.Productionmostlyofrefinedpetroleumproducts.Imports-centeredeconomies.

D. (1) Canada Largecrudeoilreservesandextensiveuseofhydroelectricpower.Strongexportsandproductionofmostresources.E. (1) China Thebiggestproducerofpetroleumrefinedproducts.Ahugemanufacturingsectorwhichrequiresgreatamountsofimports.Also,considerable

amountsofresourceproduction.Electricitycomesmainlyfromfossilfuels.F. (1) France Thebiggestuserofnuclearpowerforelectricity.Heavilyimportsorientedwithsmallproductionofresourcesandfewexports.G. (2) Germany,Italy Majornaturalgasimporters(andoiltoalesserdegree).Extensiveuseofrenewablesources.Producersandofrefinedpetroleumproductswhich

alsoconstitutestheirmajorexport.H. (1) India Heavilyreliantonfossilfuelsandcrudeoilimports.Producesandexportsaconsiderableamountofrefinedpetroleumproducts.Generally,imports-

CountryClustering

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orientedeconomyheavilyreliantoncrudeoil.I. (1) Iran Heavilyreliantonfossilfuelsforelectricityproduction.Someofthelargestcrudeoilreservestranslatedintohighvolumesofproductionand

exports(sameappliestogasbutatlowerlevels).Minimalimports.J. (1) Japan Verylargeimportsofnaturalgasandmediumimportsofcrudeoil.Strongelectricityproductionfromfossilfuels.Veryhighimportscombinedwith

minimalexports.Verysmallproductionofresources,exceptrefinedpetroleumproductswhichmovetoalow-mediumlevel,mostlyrelatedtotechnologicalgoods.

K. (1) Netherlands Themostimports-exportsactivecountryduetoitsroleasamajorhubforinternationalmaritimetrade.Smallproductionofresources,heavyrelianceonfossilfuelsforelectricityproduction.

L. (1) Qatar Totallyreliantonfossilfuelsforelectricityproduction.Importantproductionandexportsofnaturalgasandoil.Oilproductionandexportsarecomparativelysmallerthanthoseofgas.Bigreservesofbothresources.Absenceofimports.

M. (1) Russia Balancedelectricityproductionsources.Immensenaturalgasreservesandsmalltomediumcrudeoilreserves.Maximumpossibleproductionofbothresources.Thebiggestexportsofnaturalgasandrefinedpetroleumproducts.Theintenseproductionofbothoilandgasregardlessofreserves(oilreservesarenotthatlargetojustifysuchanextensiveproduction)raisesseriousquestionsregardingtheviabilityandsustainabilityofthismodelonlongrun.Almostnullimports.

N. (1) SaudiArabia Totallyreliantonfossilfuels,thebiggestexporterofcrudeoil.Someofthebiggestcrudeoilreserves.Importantexportsofrefinedpetroleumproducts.Smallnaturalgasreservesandproduction.Zeroimports(exceptfewrefinedpetroleumproducts).

O. (1) Singapore Zeroreservesandproductionofgasandoil.Totalrelianceonfossilfuelsforelectricityproduction.Thesefossilfueldemandscombinedwiththeabsenceofoilproductionandreservesleadstomassiverefinedpetroleumproductsimportswhichmostlyreflectproductsofnaturalgaswhichareusedforelectricitygeneration.Overall,Singaporeimportsmassiveamountsofrefinedpetroleumproductswhichusesforelectricitygenerationandfurtherrefinement/manufacturinginordertoexportthemagain.Thereisatotallackofreserves,imports,exportsandproductionofoil.

P. (1) Venezuela Thelargestreservesofcrudeoil.Productionofelectricityisdistributedbetweenfossilfuelsandhydroelectricpower.VeryLowproductionandexportsofcrudeoilcomparedtoexistingreserves.Politicalunrestandoiltype(highextractioncosts)explaintheverylowproductionandexports.Almostminimalimports.

*Countrieswithincompletedataremoved.

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Thestudyofalldatapresentedabovecanleadtothefollowingconclusions:

1. Energy,inthecontextofInternationalRelationsstudies,isaverycomplexphenomenon.Theunderstandinganddescriptionoftheeconomicsandpoliticsofenergynotonlyisdataintensivebutalsorequirestechnicalknowledgeonresources,miningtechniquesandrelevantcosts.Furthermore,nationalpoliciesandprivatemultinationalcorporationsfurtherperplexthestudy.Multidisciplinaryknowledgeisrequired.

2. TheprivatesectorandotherinstitutionsworkintensivelyonforecastingthefuturedevelopmentofenergyrelatedindexesanddatawithMachineLearning(andDeepLearning).Yet,theacademia,especiallyInternationalRelations,havedonelittletonothinginusingMachineLearningtoolstodescribeandresearchenergy.WhatcouldDataSciencedoforthematter?Canunsupervisedmachinelearningmethodsaccuratelydescribethephenomenon?Theacademicandpoliticalstudyofenergyhasnothingtoloseintryingnewmethods.

3. Thereareimportantdiscrepanciesbetweencountriesofthesameregion.Thisisreflectedinmostgraphsbythetotalchangeoflandscapebetweenregion-cumulativeandcountry-averageddata.

4. Theworldconsistsofthefollowingregiongroupsinregardstoenergy:a. GroupA(CentralAmerica,S.Asia,Oceania,S.America,N.America):Regionswhicharerelativelyautonomous.Theyproducedecentamountsofresourceswithoutbeing

consideredpowerhouses.Equilibriumofimports/exports.Probablythemostenergysecureandstableregions.b. GroupB(MiddleEast):Focusedoncrudeoil,stillhasstrongnaturalgaspotential.Biggestreserves,veryhighproductionwhichcanbefurtherincreased.Lackofinternaltrade,

manyglobalexports.Thehighestpotentialforpoliticalinfluencing(alreadyareality)butalsoforlongtermresourceproduction.c. GroupC(CentralAsia):TheMiddleEastofnaturalgas.Massivenaturalgasreservesandmediumcrudeoilones.Veryhighproductionofgasandhighproductionofoil.An

unsustainablebutstrongshort-termdevelopmentstrategy.Manyexports,mostlytowardsEurope(Russiangas).Needforinvestmentinnon-energysectors.Shorttermdevelopmentattheexpenseofsustainability.

d. GroupD(Europe):Diversifiedelectricityproduction,biggestimporterofenergyresources.Minimalreservesandproductionexceptrefinedpetroleumproductswhichmostlycomefromthemanufacturingsectorandarecirculatedinternally.Globalcommercialhubwithextensiveinfrastructure(pipelines,portsetc.).Highcostofenergyandlowsecurity.TheEUisawareofalltheseandisincreasinginvestmentandrelianceonrenewablesources.

e. GroupE(East/SoutheastAsia):SimilarprofiletoEuropebutwithoutexports.Probablythemostenergydependentregionoftheworld,combinedwithrelativelylowlivingconditionsandlackofregionaltrade.AtracksimilartothisofEuropewouldbeideal.Diversificationcouldstartwithhydroelectricwhichischeaperthanrenewable.

f. Africa*:Africaprovedtobethemostversatileregionbeingclustereddifferentlyeverytimenewfeatureswereadded.ItpresentscharacteristicsfrombothGroupAandGroupDbutatthesametimeimportantdifferenceswithboth.IthasadecentproductionofresourceslikeGroupAbutveryactiveimportsandexports.Atthesametime,itsintensetradelookssimilartothisofEuropebutthereisagreatdifferentiationintheselectionofelectricityproductionsourceswithAfricabeingextremelyfossil-fuelreliant.Veryhighpotentialforinvestmentanddevelopment.Economieswithlowdemands,centralgeographiclocationandvarietyofcountries.

5. TheclusteringofcountriesdistinguishedCanada,China,France,Germany,Italy,India,Iran,Japan,Netherlands,Qatar,Russia,SaudiArabia,SingaporeandVenezuelaThesecountriesconstituteinterestingcasestudies.Furtheranalysisonthemisstronglysuggested.

Conclusions

[18]

PanagiotisPodiotisisanInternationalRelations(BA)graduate,HellenicArmyreserveofficer,RedCrossvolunteerandUSConsulateGeneral(Thessaloniki,GR)ex-intern.Heaimstopromotemorepracticalanddata-centeredapproachesforthestudyandpolicyimplementationwithinIR.Fortheaccomplishmentofthispurpose,hehasconvertedtheCIAWorldFactbookindatasetformat(https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.05640)inordertoofferapoolofdataforrelativedatascienceprojects.

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