Global energy 2010

On the base of GEM-10R model

Filippov S.P., Savin V.V., Beresentsev M.M., Marchenko O.V.,Solomin S.V., Lebedev A.V., Tropanets V.V.

Content

• Description of the GEM-10R model• Preliminary results for 2010

Preliminary Remarks• The purpose of the model development was / is to

understand the current situation of the global energy and to develop forecasts of the future energy developments

• Global energy studies are often made because energy economics science tries to understand:– how fast the depletion of non-renewable energy resources will be; – how territorial disparities in availability of energy resources, which

could be potential reasons for economic and political conflicts, manifest themselves in global energy system;

– what kind of interdependencies between energy systems of states and grossraums lead or not to transfer of energy resources and energy technologies across the globe.

• GEM-10R model tries to give answers on all of these questions

Model GEM-10R World energy model as modeled by GEM-10R consists of: • a set of nodes – R={1,…, ru}; • a set of energy resources (primary, secondary), final energy (heat, chemical,

electrical, and mechanical) and non-energy factors (for example, investments) – I={1,…,iu};

• a set of polluting substances (SOx, CO2, NOx and Ash) – P={1,…,pu};• a set of technologies working with energy, for example, energy extraction, energy

conversion, energy transport etc. – J={1,…,ju}.

GEM-10R (a set of nodes)

North AmericaEurope

f. Soviet Union

Australasia

Japan & Korea

Middle East

South America

Africa

China

South Asia

World

10 mega-regions+ world

Hierarchy of energy resources and final energies

Primary energy resources:- non-renewable organic (oil, gas, coal)- nuclear (uran 235, uran 238)- renewable organic (biomass)- renewable non-organic (hydro energy, wind energy, solar energy, geothermal energy, space energy)

Secondary energy resources:- oil rest- gasoline- methanole- hydrogen

Final energies:- chemical - electrical- mechanical- heat

Set of technologies - 1

• extraction of energy resources (6 types of technologies),• conversion of one type of energy resource into another type of energy resource (22 types of

technologies),• import-export of energy resources from/to world energy market (18 types of technologies)

and direct import-export of energy resources between regions (19 types of technologies),• generation of chemical energy (3 types of technologies),• generation of electricity (30 types of technologies),• generation of heat energy (8 types of technologies),• generation of mechanical energy (5 types of technologies),• removing of polluting substances (9 types of technologies).

Set of technologies - 2

Each technology j from the set J in mega-region rR in time tT is described by:• installed capacity - xtrj;• technological and ecological

characteristics – atrij;

• economic characteristics – ctrj;

• minimum (btrj(min)) and maximum (btrj(max)) constraints.

mega-region (SU, … - at all 10)

Technology group (Chem, Conv, Elec, … - at all 8 for mega-region)

Type of technology (different number of types)

Technology (5 - 8 technologies in every technology type)

The idea of the GEM-10R For each region rR (and for each time period) tT exogeneous development constraints are given. For example, • needs for final energy consumption (btri);

• resource constraints (btri);

• financial constraints (btri);

• ecological constraints (btrp).On the base of these constraints a set of scenarios is formed S={1,…,su}. For each scenario a linear programming problem is solved: to find such an global (mega-regional) energy structure (xopt) that minimizes the goal function Z. Goal function – sum of technology costs through mega-regions for functioning of the world (mega-regional) energy system.

Set of scenarios

• „Realistic“ scenario• „No technology constraints“ scenario• „Pollution does not matter“scenario• „Ressource abundance“ scenario• „No financial constraints“ scenario• „Drop in demography“ scenario

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Mathematics of GEM-10R

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- extractions constraints for primary energy

- balance equations for primary energy

- balance equations for secondary energy

- final energy production constraints

- electricity production constraints (installed capacity constraints)

- electricity consumption balance

- pollution constraints

- investments constraints

- lower and upper bound constraints

- global constraint for CO2

- balance constraints for import and export of primary and secondary energy resources and investments

Preliminary results

2010

Feasible solutions for the set of scenarios

• „Realistic“ scenario (SU, AZ, LA, ME, AF, World)• „No technology constraints“ scenario (NA)• „Pollution does not matter“scenario (CH, EU)• „Ressource abundance“ scenario (AS, JK) - !• „No financial constraints“ scenario• „Drop in demography“ scenario

strong

weak

Comparison of results 2010(only former Soviet Union)

Part 1 Energy Technologies in Energy Balance, GW Energy Produced/Consumed in Energy Balance, mln TJ/yrNA EU JK AZ SU LA ME AF CH AS World NA EU JK AZ SU LA ME AF CH AS World

Energy Extraction Technologies, primaryTotalOil 16,26817 16,26817 0,380675 0,380675TotalGas 1821,785 1821,785 42,62978 42,62978TotalCoal 342,3483 342,3483 8,010951 8,010951TotalU235 125,2333 125,2333 3,15588 3,15588TotalU238 0 0 0 0TotalBio -2,52E-14 -2,52E-14 -5,44E-16 -5,44E-16 SubTotal 54,17728 54,17728

Renewable Energy Production TechnologiesTotalHydro 82,96091 82,96091 1,468539 1,468539TotalSolar 0 0 0 0TotalWind 11,33787 11,33787 0,5 0,5TotalGeo 0 0 0 0TotalSpace 0 0 0 0 SubTotal 1,968539 1,968539

Energy Conversion Technologies (to Bio and Gas)to Gas 0 0 0 0to Bio 0 0 0 0 SubTotal 0 0

All Energy (Production) 56,14582 56,14582

Energy Consumption Technologies, primary1. Primary Fuels -46,4399 -46,4399Oil 13,22173 13,22173 -0,363986 -0,36399Gas 2231,314 2231,314 -38,26834 -38,2683Coal 166,1754 166,1754 -7,807553 -7,80755Biomass -2,35E-15 -2,35E-15 1,02E-16 1,02E-16

2. Nuclear -3,15588 -3,15588U235 44,2 44,2 -3,15588 -3,15588U238 0 0 0 0

All Energy (Consumption) -49,59576 -49,59576

Energy Import(+)/Export(-) Technologies, primary LossesTotalOil 0 0TotalGas 0 0TotalCoal 0 0TotalU235 0 0TotalU238 0 0 SubTotal 0 0

Saldo (losses etc.) 6,550062 6,550062

-49,596

56,149All Energy (Production)

All Energy (Consumption)

Comparison of results 2010(all 10 mega-regions)

Part 1 Energy Technologies in Energy Balance, GW Energy Produced/Consumed in Energy Balance, mln TJ/yrNA EU JK AZ SU LA ME AF CH AS World NA EU JK AZ SU LA ME AF CH AS World

Energy Extraction Technologies, primaryTotalOil 1019,092 666,453 0 79,05983 1626,394 1505,342 2003,525 323,2906 1078,788 453,2051 8755,149 23,84675 15,595 0 1,85 38,05762 35,225 46,88247 7,565 25,24364 10,605 204,8704883TotalGas 2182,265 1189,793 2,564103 169,6896 3285 1183,482 2197,137 402,2642 1045,94 1395,145 13053,28 51,065 27,84116 0,06 3,970737389 76,869 27,69347 51,413 9,412982627 24,475 32,6464 305,4467549TotalCoal 4,58E-14 2045,373 5,128205 0 0 0 0 5,72E-15 517,094 798,7179 3366,313 1,07E-15 47,86172 0,12 0 0 0 0 1,3393E-16 12,1 18,69 78,77171857TotalU235 621,3248 63,67063 4,265873 291,9444 520,3373 194,1071 9,126984 211,0714 474,5833 18,33333 2408,765 15,65739 1,6045 0,1075 7,357 13,1125 4,8915 0,23 5,319 11,9595 0,462 60,70088544TotalU238 0 0 0,008206 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,008206 0 0 0,000207 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,000206789TotalBio 191,0612 233,7963 45,83333 4,691586 4,691586 4,691586 4,691586 4,691586 322,2222 749,4478 1565,819 4,126923 5,05 0,99 0,101338255 0,101338 0,101338 0,101338 0,101338255 6,96 16,18807 33,82168689 SubTotal 94,69606 97,95238 1,277707 13,27907564 128,1405 67,91131 98,62681 22,39832088 80,73814 78,59147 683,611741

Renewable Energy Production TechnologiesTotalHydro 135,0327 135,4463 36,06087 9,525128 53,78896 97,49249 5,042715 6,72E-17 40,34172 165,8726 678,6034 2,41 2,41 0,63 0,17 0,96 1,74 0,09 1,20009E-18 0,72 2,892201 12,02220147TotalSolar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0TotalWind 0 22,67574 22,3356 0 0 0 0 0 0 102,6077 147,619 0 1 0,8 0 0 0 0 0 0 4,7 6,5TotalGeo 0 0 44,91496 0 0 0 0 0 0 38,15629 83,07125 0 0 2,9 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,5 5,4TotalSpace 0 0 7,438557 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7,438557 0 0 0,195051 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,195051038 SubTotal 2,41 3,41 4,525051 0,17 0,96 1,74 0,09 1,20009E-18 0,72 10,0922 24,1172525

Energy Conversion Technologies (to Bio and Gas)to Gas 0 13,896 21,927 0 0 0 0 0 111,21 241,4449 388,478 0 0,325166 0,513092 0 0 0 0 0 2,602315 5,649812 9,090384827to Bio 0 0 0 -1,13E-16 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1,13E-16 0 0 0 -4,47445E-19 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4,4745E-19 SubTotal 0 0,325166 0,513092 -4,47445E-19 0 0 0 0 2,602315 5,649812 9,09038483

All Energy (Production) 97,10606 101,3624 5,802758 13,44907564 129,1005 69,65131 98,71681 22,39832088 81,45814 88,68367 707,7289934

Energy Consumption Technologies, primary1. Primary Fuels -95,015 -95,5112 -16,6707 -6,621589478 -39,1317 -61,1922 -34,4935 -22,3842732 -110,653 -81,9864 -563,659932Oil 1107,46 1432,065 0 109,9432 -3,57E-15 1204,032 524,0354 414,4689 1735,333 354,3093 6881,647 -30,48773 -39,42391 0 -3,026671754 9,82E-17 -33,14628 -14,42639 -11,41008584 -47,7727 -9,753928 -189,447694Gas 2592,176 2015,035 685,1891 121,4354 1696,597 1503,201 1044,398 504,4229 2574,782 3529,325 16266,56 -44,71128 -31,55531 -10,80902 -1,913669156 -31,01275 -24,35106 -17,97973 -8,287967753 -42,17724 -56,54712 -269,345153Coal 282,3892 375,3781 109,8524 35,99221 140,2971 69,81341 34,05813 49,04853 253,6424 13,5 1363,971 -15,87602 -19,7541 -4,926699 -1,584177869 -8,02189 -3,597818 -1,990285 -2,589148917 -14,10928 -0,24504 -72,6944579Biomass 88,01251 107,8297 30,777 5,9 5,9 5,9 5,9 5,9 168,0563 391,3776 815,553 -3,939936 -4,777854 -0,934978 -0,097070698 -0,097071 -0,097071 -0,097071 -0,097070698 -6,594215 -15,44029 -32,1726279

2. Nuclear -7,71834 -9,68905 -5,41295 -0,990680998 -3,15588 -7,71834 -3,80535 -5,70275666 -7,71834 -8,78941 -60,7010922U235 108,1 135,7 74,15126 13,87508 44,2 108,1 53,29619 79,87054 108,1 123,1001 848,4932 -7,71834 -9,68898 -5,412878 -0,990680998 -3,15588 -7,71834 -3,805348 -5,702756659 -7,71834 -8,789342 -60,7008854U238 0 0,001 0,0011 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,001 0,0031 0 -6,62E-05 -7,43E-05 0 0 0 0 0 0 -6,62E-05 -0,00020679

All Energy (Consumption) -102,7333 -105,2002 -22,08365 -7,612270476 -42,2876 -68,91057 -38,29882 -28,08702986 -118,3718 -90,77578 -624,361024

Energy Import(+)/Export(-) Technologies, primary LossesTotalOil 8,174254 -6,79E-17 0 1,322565554 -10,23953 0 -30,05706 4,239134836 24,80306 0 -1,75757629TotalGas 0 0 10,24556 -1,597669768 -29,72732 0 -28,01075 -0,111351924 18,47911 22,79694 -7,92548617TotalCoal 15,87602 -26,47608 4,813326 1,584177869 8,02189 3,597818 1,990285 2,589148917 2,316496 -17,69266 -3,37957084TotalU235 -7,939045 8,08448 5,305378 -6,366319002 -9,95662 2,82684 3,575348 0,383756659 -4,24116 8,327342 0TotalU238 0 6,62E-05 -0,000132 -1,03657E-21 0 0 0 0 0 6,62E-05 0 SubTotal 16,11123 -18,3915 20,36413 -5,057245346 -41,9016 6,424658 -52,5022 7,100688488 41,35751 13,43169 -13,0626333

Saldo (losses etc.) 10,48398 -22,22937 4,083236 0,779559821 44,91128 7,165397 7,915815 1,411979507 4,443874 11,33958 70,30533576

-42,288

129,101All Energy (Production)

All Energy (Consumption)

Comparison of results 2010(only former Soviet Union vs. all 10 mega-regions)

Energy Extraction Technologies, primary, mln TJ/y SU alone With the worldTotalOil 0,380675 38,05762TotalGas 42,62978 76,869TotalCoal 8,010951 0TotalU235 3,15588 13,1125TotalU238 0 0TotalBio 0 0,101338 SubTotal 54,17728 128,1405

Renewable Energy Production Technologies, mln TJ/y SU alone With the worldTotalHydro 1,468539 0,96TotalSolar 0 0TotalWind 0,5 0TotalGeo 0 0TotalSpace 0 0 SubTotal 1,968539 0,96

Energy Consumption Technologies, primary, mln TJ/y SU alone With the world1. Primary Fuels -46,4399 -39,1317Oil -0,363986 9,82E-17Gas -38,26834 -31,01275Coal -7,807553 -8,02189Biomass 1,02E-16 -0,097071

2. Nuclear -3,15588 -3,15588U235 -3,15588 -3,15588U238 0 0

Primary Energy Production(alone - 56,14 mln TJ/y; with the world - 129,10 mln TJ/y)

Primary Energy Consumption(alone - -49,596 mln TJ/y; with the world - -42,287 mln TJ/y)

Comparison of results 2010(model vs. reality for SU)

Energy Extraction Technologies, primary, mln TJ/y SU alone With the world BP*TotalOil 0,380675 38,05762 27,31TotalGas 42,62978 76,869 27,84TotalCoal 8,010951 0 8,58TotalU235 3,15588 13,1125 no dataTotalU238 0 0 no dataTotalBio 0 0,101338 no data SubTotal 54,17728 128,1405 63,73

Renewable Energy Production Technologies, mln TJ/y SU alone With the world BP*TotalHydro 1,468539 0,96 1,795989**TotalSolar 0 0 no dataTotalWind 0,5 0 no dataTotalGeo 0 0 0,001334TotalSpace 0 0 no data SubTotal 1,968539 0,96 1,797323

Energy Consumption Technologies, primary, mln TJ/y SU alone With the world BP*1. Primary Fuels -46,4399 -39,1317 -32,16557315Oil -0,363986 0 -7,286531001Gas -38,26834 -31,01275 -19,38031327Coal -7,807553 -8,02189 -5,498728879Biomass 1,02E-16 -0,097071 no data

2. Nuclear -3,15588 -3,15588 -1,614292U235 -3,15588 -3,15588 -1,614292U238 0 0 no data

*SU = Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russian Federation, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan(all BP data are from BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2011)

**consumption

Primary Energy Production(alone - 56,14 mln TJ/y; with the world - 129,10 mln TJ/y; BP data – 65,53 mln TJ/y)

Primary Energy Consumption(alone - -49,596 mln TJ/y; with the world - -42,287 mln TJ/y; BP data - -33,77986515 mln TJ/y)

World energy structure**

mln TJ/y All Energy (Production)

All Energy (Consumption) Import(+)/Export(-)

NA 97,10606 -102,7333 16,11123

EU 101,3624 -105,2002 -18,3915

JK 5,802758 -22,08365 20,36413

AZ 13,44908 -7,61227 -5,05725

SU 129,1005 -42,2876 -41,9016

LA 69,65131 -68,91057 6,424658

ME 98,71681 -38,29882 -52,5022

AF 22,39832 -28,08703 7,100688

CH 81,45814 -118,3718 41,35751

AS 88,68367 -90,77578 13,43169

World* 707,729 -624,361 -13,0626

* Production + Consumption + Import/Export ~= 0 because of efficiency losses etc.

** Upper limit for technologies is 1095 GW of installed capacity

coal export

oil, gas and U235 export

U235 export

oil, and gas export

Pollution

SOx (mt) NOx (mt) Ash (mt) CO2 (mt)NA 12,16259 29,59897 13,79662 6240,886EU 14,16598 27,47714 13,94226 6351,571JK 1,224503 5,700437 1,253179 1353,4AZ 1,030582 1,512082 1,301118 356,2874SU 6,659264 12,43719 7,093542 2790,465LA 3,504639 11,30445 3,756753 2827,438ME 1,560453 7,453402 2,043822 1746,544AF 1,777044 3,091844 2,267259 911,883CH 17,35537 30,72863 13,79342 7283,405AS 1,159116 20,89115 1,73022 5658,073World 60,59954 150,1953 60,9782 35519,95

BP data 33158,4Real

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Mod

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Conclusions

• 5 mega-regions (NA, CH, EU, JK, AS) do not have a feasible energy structure without the world in „realistic“ scenario, so they „need“ world

• Interdependencies influence the mega-regional energy structure (shown on the example of the SU)

• There is some non-coincidence between the model results and the real world -> need for improvement

Thank You for Your attention

ACNOWLEDGEMENTThis research project is carried out under the financial grant of Russian Foundation for Basic Research, №10-06-00538-a(Principal Investigators: Corr.-Acad. Prof. Dr. Sergey Filippov and Dr. Dr. Vladislav Savin)