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  • Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.

    © 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

    Siri Kanjanasiri, Research Analyst

    Siri.Kanjanasiri@ihsmarkit.com

    ASEAN Powertrain Compliance and Forecasting

    Global Electrified Vehicles Outlook

    September 18, 2018

    PTT Synergy Hall, Energy Complex,

    Bangkok

  • Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.

    Contents

    ADNEGA‮ 2

    SHI TUOBA‮ MARKIT 3

    EV OUTLOOK 4-10

    VEx fo metsys noisluporP‮ by IHS Markit automotive 5

    kooltuo noitcudorp (VEx) elcihev deifirtcele labolG‮ 6

    kooltuo (VEx) elcihev deifirtcele labolG‮ 7

    8 kooltuo (VEx) elcihev deifirtcele NAESA‮

    9 kooltuo (VEx) elcihev deifirtcele dnaliahT‮

    VEx sMEO‮ production forecast outlook 10

    VE ROF SROTCAF YEK‮ 11-20

    (VEx) elcihev deifirtcele fo krowemarf tekraM‮ 12

    evitcepsrep tnemnrevoG‮ 13-14

    evitcepsrep yrtsudnI‮ 15-16

    evitcepsrep remusnoC‮ 17-18

    evitcepsrep ygolonhceT‮ 19-20

    IMPLICATION TO GLOBAL ENERGY MARKET 21-23

    dnamed leseid dna enilosag VL yrlaviR‮ 22

    32 dnamed leseid dna enilosag VL ymonotuA‮

    Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018

    2

  • Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.

    We think about the world in a distinct way. IHS Markit is harnessing the deepest sources of information, analytics and expertise to forge solutions for the industries and

    markets that drive economies worldwide.

    We call this The New Intelligence.

    Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018About IHS Markit

    3

    The automotive sector is one of the biggest and

    most competitive markets in the world and relies

    on in-depth analysis for its daily operations.

  • Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.

    EV Outlook

    Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018

    4

  • Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.

    Propulsion system definition of xEV by IHS Markit Automotive

    Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018EV Outlook

    5

    100% 0%

    ICE

    MHEV

    HEV

    xEV BEV

    H

    FCEV

    E le

    c tr

    if ic

    a ti o n

    Internal Combustion

    Engine

    Mild Hybrid

    Electric Vehicle

    Fossil fuels (Co2)

    Hybrid

    Electric Vehicle

    Plug-in Hybrid

    Electric Vehicle

    Fuel Cell

    Electric Vehicle Battery

    Electric Vehicle

    PHEV

    Source: IHS Markit

  • Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.

    Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018EV Outlook

    6

    2 0

    3 0

    2 0

    1 8

    0.6M

    4.4M

    North America

    2 0

    3 0

    2 0

    1 8

    1.2M

    16.5M

    Europe 20 3

    0

    2 0

    1 8

    1.2M 26.6M

    China

    2 0

    3 0

    2 0

    1 8

    40k

    0.9M

    ASEAN

    2 0

    3 0

    0.8M

    South America

    2 0

    3 0

    2 0

    1 8

    20k

    0.4M

    Middle East/Africa

    2 0

    3 0

    2 0

    1 8

    2.7M

    India

    0.2M

    2 0

    3 0

    2 0

    1 8

    2.3M

    7.4M

    Japan/Korea

    Global Electrified Vehicles (xEV) production outlook China takes lead as largest EV market/production region globally. Growth for xEV overtakes the conventional

    vehicles and volumes will surge from only 5.5M today to 60M by 2030.

  • Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.

    Global Electrified Vehicle (xEV) Outlook xEV production is expected to reach over 50% of total global light vehicle production by 2030. Production demand

    growth for ICE is decreasing over time.

    Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018EV Outlook

    7

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

    M ill

    io n

    s

    BEV PHEV HEV ICE

    96M

    Global Light Vehicle Production by Propulsion System through 2030

    © 2018 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit

    ICE vs xEV in 2025 / 2030

    © 2018 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit

    BEV 7% PHEV

    6%

    HEV 28%

    ICE 59%

    2025

    BEV 9% PHEV

    8%

    HEV 36%

    ICE 47%

    2030

    116M

  • Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.

    ASEAN electrified vehicle (xEV) outlook Electrified Vehicle (xEV) expected to eventually grow at slower pace in the region, mainly driven by government EV

    schemes, however, ICE remains the mainstream.

    Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018EV Outlook

    ASEAN xEV market outlook by propulsion system through 2030

    © 2018 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

    M ill

    io n

    s

    BEV xHEV ICE

    8

  • Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.

    0

    0.5

    1

    1.5

    2

    2.5

    3

    2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

    M ill

    io n

    s

    BEV xHEV ICE Optimistic Forecast Scenario

    Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018EV Outlook

    9

    Thailand xEV market outlook by propulsion system through 2030

    © 2018 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit

    ICE vs xEV in 2025 / 2030

    © 2018 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit

    xEV CAGR: 80%

    (2016-2020) xEV CAGR: 12%

    (2021-2025)

    xEV CAGR: 7.4%

    (2026-2030)

    BEV 2%

    xHEV 21%

    ICE 77%

    2030

    BEV 1%

    xHEV 15%

    ICE 84%

    2025

    Thailand electrified vehicle (xEV) outlook IHS Markit expected xEVs will reach over 0.65M units or 23% of total production by 2030.

  • Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.

    Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018EV Outlook

    10

    Thailand xEV forecast by OEMs through 2030

    © 2018 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    2018 2022 2026 2030

    T h o

    u s a n d s

    Toyota Honda Nissan Mercedes-Benz BMW

    • Toyota invested the battery production facilities in

    Thailand for their hybrid model lineups for domestic and

    export with annual capacity 70K units, and will be

    operational from 2020. Most passenger cars expected to

    equip with hybrid, while BEV is likely to be assembled

    from 2021.

    • Honda is anticipated to establish the battery and hybrid

    component facilities for the local production of their hybrid

    vehicles within 2020.

    • Nissan planned to participate both hybrid (HEV) and

    battery electric vehicle (BEV) scheme and make Thailand

    as export base of HEVs in the region.

    • Mercedes-Benz is currently assembling all model line up

    with Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV), its local battery facilities will

    be ready for production from 2019.

    • BMW also established the battery plant in Rayong and

    will be ready for local production from 2020.

    OEM’s xEV production forecast outlook

  • Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.

    Key Factors for EV

    Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018

    11

  • Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.

    Market framework of electrified vehicle (xEV)

    Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018Key Factors for EV

    12

    Market Framework $

    H

    Policy & Regulatory Compliance

    Cost Optimization

    Energy Density & Range

    Charging times

    Charging Infrastructure

    EV Subsidies/Incentives

    BEV

    FCEV

    PHEV

    HEV MHEV

    ICE

  • Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.

    Government perspective

    Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018Key Factors for EV

    13

    Market Framework $

    H

    Policy & Regulatory Compliance

    Energy Density & Range

    Charging times

    Charging Infrastructure

    EV Subsidies/Incentives

    BEV

    FCEV

    PHEV

    HEV MHEV

    ICE

    Cost Optimization

  • Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.

    Global Electrified Vehicle Outlook / September 2018Key Factors for EV

    14

    Compliance

    Target and

    Production

    Regulations

    US

    • GHG is focusing on

    CO2 emission.

    • CAFE is focusing on

    fuel consumption.

    • National regulation

    applies to 40 US states.

    OEMs have to comply

    with GHG and CAFE.

    • However, California

    ZEV is stricter targets

    than national regulation.

    • Target CO2 emission