global day ppt - accessassociations.org
TRANSCRIPT
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ASAE GLOBAL DAY ASAE’s Global Partners:
Supporting ASAE Alliance Partners:
Supporting Organizations:
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Afshin MolaviCo-Director, emerge85 LabSenior Fellow, The Foreign Policy InstituteJohns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies
The Five “Everything” Trends and What They Mean for the Future of Business, Politics, Culture, and Everything Else
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Where are we going?
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Moore’s Law
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Mike Tyson’s Law: “Everyone has a plan….”
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“’till you get punched in the face”
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A world of geopolitical risk
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Technology Disruption
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Markets….
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Climate Change
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Social Storms – “Facebook-istan”
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Five Key Trends
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Five Key Trends: Disruption Proof
• 85%• 129 million per year• 1.5 million per week• 5 billion• Under 30
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The 85% - “The Rest”
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The 85% - Three out of Four - World Population 7.35 Billion
• Asia – 4.39 billion• Africa – 1.186 billion• LAC – 634 m
• Europe – 738 m• Northern America – 360 m• Oceania – 39 m
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Asia 2030• Nearly 6 out of 10• 78% in either Asia
or Africa• In China, 400 million
cars• 2/3 of all air travel
EM, mostly Asia
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October 10, 2018 - 353,424
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129 million
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Demographic Domination
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World Population - 2030
• Europe will shrink by 4 million
• Northern America will add 60 million people
• Africa will add another 500 million people
• Asia will add another 600 million people
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UN Projections 2050
• World Population:– 9.8 billion
• Most populous countries:1. India2. China3. Nigeria
• Global life expectancy gaps to diminish
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129 million
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129 million
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1.5 million per week
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Our Urban World• The World Today– 54% Urban
• The World in 2050– 66% Urban
• Africa in 1950– 3 cities of one million
• Africa today – 56+ cities of one million• Asia 48% today headed for 64% by 2050
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1.5 million per week
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1.5 million per week
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1.5 million per week
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Cities as Economic Engines
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Asian citiesIn 1900, only one of the world’s largest cities was in Asia.
Today, 4 of the top 5 and 6 of the top 10 largest cities are in Asia.
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Megacities
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Top 10 Megacities by size1) Tokyo – 38.4 m2) Delhi – 26.4 m3) Shanghai – 24.4 m4) Mumbai – 21.3 m5) Sao Paulo – 21.2 m6) Beijing – 21.2 m7) Mexico C. – 21.1 m8) Osaka – 20.3 m9) Cairo – 19.1 m10) New York – 18.6 m
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The Next Ten11) Dhaka – 18.2 m12) Karachi – 17.1 m13) Buenos Aires – 15.3 m14) Kolkata – 14.9 m15) Istanbul – 14.3 m16) Chongqing – 13.7 m17) Lagos – 13.6 m18) Manila – 13.1 m19) Guanghzhou – 13 m20) Rio – 12.9 m
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Fourth Industrial Revolution• 3-D Printing will
disrupt manufacturing supply chains in many megacities
• Automation and robotics will shrink manufacturing jobs pool
• E-commerce sinks shopping centers
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5 billion (by 2030)
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Asian Middle ClassBy 2030:
Asia will provide:
• 2/3 of the global middle class
• 40% of global consumption.
• 88% of new global middle class entrants
Source: Homi Kharas, Brookings Institution
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5 billion (by 2030)
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Projected Growth of the Asian Middle Class vs EU Population (billions)
012234
2015 2030
EU PopulationOver the next two decades, the middle class is expected to expand by 3bn
CONSUME
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5 billion by 2030
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5 billion (by 2030)
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5 billion by 2030
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5 billion (by 2030)
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5 billion (by 2030)
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$56 trillion (by 2030)
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Asia ImportsThe world’s largest importing region
• Asia: 36%
• US and EU: 31%
Source: WTO
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Under 30
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Under 30
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Under 30
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Under 30
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7 billion mobile phone subscriptions globally
9.2 billion by 201980% of those will be mobile broadband
3 billion smartphones today
6 billion smartphones by 2021
Smartphone Boom
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Connect-ism
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Nexus States and Cities
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Family Travel: Emerging Middle Classes
According to research, a family trip is the second highest priority for emerging middle classes, after
buying a car
Source: World Economic Forum, Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Report, 2016
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Air Traffic Growth
• US = 2%
• Asia-Pacific and Africa = 6-7%• Middle East = 10%+
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Air Travel Revolution
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Emirates Airlines - 1985
Emirates route map - 1985
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CONNECT
90% of world trade takes place through shipping.
10m people board airplanes every day.
$18bn worth of goods ware sent by air each day.
Largest Emerging Market Mobile Networks
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China Demand
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“China Speed”
• Fastest growing outbound tourism market in the world• Now accounts for 11% of global tourism expenditures
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“China Size”
• Top spenders in international travel and tourism since 2012
• Top source market for international tourists worldwide
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India Rising
• Every month, 1 million Indians turn 18
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India Rising
• Every second 3 Indians experience the internet for the first time• 70% of online sales are by smartphone
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India Rising
• By 2027, population will overtake China and will also contain the world’s largest middle class
• World’s largest film industry
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Winning the War on Poverty?25 years ago:• 37% of humanity lived below the poverty lineToday: 9%1990 East Asia and Pacific:• 60% lived below
poverty lineToday: 7.2%1990 South Asia:• 50.6% of world lived below poverty lineToday: below 15%
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We have come a long way….
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Let’s not forget Tyson’s Law…
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Let’s not forget…
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And this….
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The Uprisings – “How am I supposed to make a living?”
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Trade Wars?
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Rising Populist Nationalism in Europe
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U.S Still the Economic Colossus
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“I don’t skate to where the puck is. I skate to where the puck is going.”
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Four Politics-Proof Trends• Urbanization• Connectivity• Emerging Middle Classes• Demographics
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Urbanization
Notre-Dame Cathedral Basilica of Saigon Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
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Demographics of the “85 World”
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Connectivity
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Emerging Middle Classes
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ASAE GLOBAL DAY ASAE’s Global Partners:
Supporting ASAE Alliance Partners:
Supporting Organizations: