global compact on migration: roadmap from a development ... · pdf filedilip ratha november...
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Dilip Ratha
November 14, 2016
Global Compact
on Migration:
Roadmap from
A Development
Viewpoint
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Outline
• Data and drivers of migration
• Benefits and challenges of migration
• Roadmap to a global compact on migration
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Data: International Refugees and Migrants
Refugee data excludes 5.2 mn Palestinian refugees reported by UNRWA
Source: World Bank, Migration and Remittances Factbook 2016
153 161 173
191
222 250
17 15 12 9 11 16
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Total international migrant stock
Refugees and asylum seekers
Millions
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South-South 38%
South-North 34%
North-South 6%
North-North 23%
South-South vs. South-North Migration
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Intra-regional migration is substantial in
Africa, Europe and Central Asia, and MENA
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
0 10 20 30 40 50
EAP
ECA
LAC
MENA
SAR
SSA
Intra-regional Other developing countries
High income: OECD High income: non OECD
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Change in
working age
population,
2015-2050 (million)
Change in
employment needed
to keep employment
rates at 2015 level (million)
"Migration
pressure" created
by the
unemployed (million)
(A) (B) (A–B)
Developing countries 2,119 1,243 875
East Asia & Pacific 200 135 65
Europe & Central Asia 8 4 4
Latin America & Carib, 179 109 70
Middle East & N. Africa 204 84 120
South Asia 600 317 283
Sub-Saharan Africa 928 595 333
High income OECD 78 44 35
Migration pressures will increase in future
Source: International Labour Organization calculations based on ILO Trends Econometric Models and
UN World Population Prospects (2015 Revision).
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Drivers of migration
• Income gaps
• Demographic changes
• Environmental Change
• [Fragility, Conflict, Violence]
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High-Income $43,000
Low-income $600
Income Gap 70:1
Per capita income, 2015
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Nigeria 7:1
W. Europe 1:1
India 4:1
Ratio of # of 20-year olds to # of 65-year old
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Benefits and Costs to Migrants
Benefits after migration
• Migrants’ income increased by 15-fold
• School enrollment doubled
• Child mortality reduced by 16-fold
• Women are empowered
• Better access to health, education, services
Costs
• Risks: health, trafficking, abusive employers and
recruiters
• Exclusion, discrimination, xenophobic attacks
• Family left behind (children and old parents)
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Benefits: Sending Countries
• Reduced unemployment, reduced poverty
• Remittances and diaspora investments
• Trade and FDI
• Skill and technology transfer
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Remittance flows to developing countries
to reach $442 billion in 2016
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700FDI
ODA
Pvt debt &
port. equity
Remittances
$ billion
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Challenges: Sending Countries
• Family left behind
• Loss of skills
• Dutch disease
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Benefits: Receiving Countries
• Increased incomes
• Increases in labor supply
• Increases in skills, entrepreneurship and innovation
• Alleviates aging problem
• Fiscal contributions often positive
• Diversity
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Challenges: Receiving Countries
• Job competition for native workers
• Congestion and fiscal costs of social services
• Crime
• [National security]
• [National identity]
• Negative public perceptions
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Public Perceptions: Myth vs Reality
Perception of share of migrants in population
Perception Reality
United States 32% 13%
France 28% 10%
Spain 24% 12%
United Kingdom 24% 13%
Source: German Marshall Fund 2015
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Ten challenges – elements for the Global
Compact
Migrants
1. Risks: health, trafficking, abusive employers and recruiters
2. Exclusion, discrimination, xenophobic attacks
3. Family left behind (children and old parents)
Origin countries
1. Family left behind
2. Loss of skills
Receiving countries
1. Job competition for native workers
2. Congestion and fiscal costs of social services
3. [National security]
4. Integration of migrants [National identity]
5. Negative public perceptions
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A Role for IFIs
1. Financing development projects
2. Addressing fundamental drivers
3. Maximizing benefits in line with the SDGS
• Reducing recruitment costs
• Reducing remittance costs
• Improve data by migratory status
4. Knowledge for policy making and countering
negative public perceptions
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Roadmap for the Global Compact on
Migration – for IFIs
• Migration diagnostic tool
• Knowledge and data
• Financing – pilots
• Convening – facilitate dialogue among states
• Need for innovative, game-changing solutions
• World Development Report?
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Roadmap – for States
• Leverage Global Forum on Migration and
Development, and Regional Communities and
Processes
• Different, Coordinated, and Accelerated
approach
• Game-changing ideas needed
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Core Elements for the Global Compact
• Migrants’ safety, trafficking, abusive employers
and recruiters
• Exclusion, discrimination, xenophobic attacks on
migrants; Integration in host community; National
identity
• Family left behind (especially children and old
parents)
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Core Elements for the Global Compact
• Loss of skills in origin countries
• Job competition for native workers in receiving
countries
• Congestion and fiscal costs of social services
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Time is short!