AGRO

303

SEMI

NAR

TOPIC:- GLOBAL CLIMATIC CHANGES & IT’SEFFECTS ON INDIAN AGRICULTURE

INTRODUCTION

There was a country. People were happily living by fishing & other activities depending upon the surrounding sea.

Suddenly the sea begins to rise..Within a century..The whole island country sinks..Along with it sinks the 300000 lives..their Culture..& Heritage…

Some how some ambitious people had seen the future in advance. They had shelters in other countries…They survived..along with them their legend…

Friends…This is not a story. The Country in our discussion is Maldives.

According to IPCC,there are 20 countries around the world which are on the verge of extinction due to rise in sea level resulting from GLOBAL WARMING..

The last days of paradise are on….What We aspire to give our future generation is

nothing but a world worth not living….

Its now Maldives….Days are not far..When India will be witnessing Such things….

Is this reality..???Lets Ponder over it. .Lets Ponder over it. .

INDIA AND AGRICULTURE

Population : 1,261,850,000 % Share of Agri. in GDP : 13% (2012-13) Area under Agriculture : 50 % (160 mha) Population dependent on Agriculture: 70% Average farm size: : 1 to5 ha Landless dependent on others Total. Area Irrigated Prod Earnings % of GDP

(mha) (mha) (mt). (Rs.) Rice 42 20 73 365 22Wheat 24 21 57 208

12.6

CURRENT ISSUES IN AGRICULTUREOverproduction in short-term, yet food

insecurity for a large populationStagnation/decline in yieldsDiversificationNatural resource management-input

use efficiencies, narrow genetic baseQuality and quantity of water resourcesProfitability: Increasing cost and

deceleration in TFP growth

EMERGING SCENARIO: DRIVERS OF AGRICULTURAL TRANSFORMATION

Increasing population leading to higher demand of food

Increasing urbanization Increasing inter- and intra-sectoral

competition for resources: land, water, energy, credit

Increasing globalization: removal of trade barriers, information and communication

New technologies: Biotechnology, space and information technology

Increasing privatization of agricultural extension

GLOBAL CLIMATIC CHANGE Global mean temperatures have increased

by 0.74oC during last 100 years GHG (CO2, methane, nitrous oxide)

increase, caused by fossil fuel use and land use changes, main reasons.

Temperatures increase by 1.8-6.4 C by 2100 AD. Greater increase in rabi

Precipitation likely to increase in kharif Snow cover is projected to contract More frequent hot extremes, heavy

precipitations Sea level to rise to be 0.18 - 0.59 m.

CONTRIBUTION OF DIFFERENT SECTORS IN WORLD TO CLIMATE CHANGE. (SOURCES OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS)

WHAT IS THE CONTRIBUTION OF DIFFERENT SECTORS IN INDIA TO CLIMATE CHANGE?(SOURCES OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS IN INDIA)

Industrial processes

8%

Wastes2%

Land use changes

1%

Agriculture28%

Energy61%

WHAT SECTORS OF AGRICULTURE IN INDIA CONTRIBUTE TO CLIMATE CHANGE?

Rice cultivation23%

Manure management

5%

Emission from soils12%

Enteric fermentation

59%

Crop residues1%

ESTIMATES OF FUTURE LEVELS OF CO2

Year CO2, ppm

2000 369

2010-2015 388-398

2050/2060 463-623

2100 478-1099

MOST OF THE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS ARE FROM THE INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES

Europe

Africa

Japan, Australia and New zealand

South AsiaEast Asia

USA and Canada

Latin AmericaMiddle East

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Region

ton

s o

f C

O2

eq

/ca

pit

a

CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR INDIA

Year Season Increase inTemperature, oC

Change inRainfall, %

Lowest Highest Lowest Highest

Rabi 1.08 1.54 -1.95 4.362020s

Kharif 0.87 1.12 1.81 5.10

Rabi 2.54 3.18 -9.22 3.822050s

Kharif 1.81 2.37 7.18 10.52

Rabi 4.14 6.31 -24.83 -4.502080s

Kharif 2.91 4.62 10.10 15.18

OTHER OBSERVATIONS OF CHANGE IN GLOBAL CLIMATEGlobally, hot days, hot nights,

and heat waves have become more frequent.

Frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas.

Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year over 1961 to 2003.

OTHER CHANGES IN GLOBAL CLIMATE IN FUTURE

Tropical cyclones to become more intense, with heavier precipitation.

Snow cover is projected to contract. Hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy

precipitation events will become more frequent.

The projected sea level rise to be 0.18 - 0.59 meters.

IMPACTS ON INDIAN AGRICULTURE –LITERATURE · Sinha and Swaminathan (1991) – showed that an increase

of 2oC in temperature could decrease the rice yield by about 0.75 ton/ha in the high yield areas; and a 0.5oC increase in winter temperature would reduce wheat yield by 0.45 ton/ha.

·   Rao and Sinha (1994) – showed that wheat yields could decrease between 28 to 68% without considering the CO2 fertilization effects; and would range between +4 to -34% after considering CO2 fertilization effects.

Aggarwal and Sinha (1993) – using WTGROWS model showed that a 2oC temperature rise would decrease wheat yields in most places.

•    Lat et al. (1996) – concluded that carbon fertilization effects would not be able to offset the negative impacts of high temperature on rice yields.

•   Saseendran et al. (2000) – showed that for every one degree rise in temperature the decline in rice yield would be about 6%.

Aggarwal et al. (2002) – using WTGROWS and recent climate change scenarios estimated impacts on wheat and other cereal crops.All these studies focused only on agronomic impacts of climate change.

POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WHEAT PRODUCTION IN INDIA

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

Year

Pro

du

cti

on

, M

ton

s

Source: Aggarwal et al. (2002)

PROJECTED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON INDIAN AGRICULTURE Cereal productivity to decrease by 10-

40% by 2100. Greater loss expected in rabi. Every

1oC increase in temperature reduces wheat production by 4-5 million tons. Loss only 1-2 million tons if farmers could plant in time.

Reduced frequency of frost damage: less damage to potato, peas, mustard

Increased droughts and floods are likely to increase production variability

Increasing sea and river water temperatures are likely to affect fish breeding, migration, and harvests. Coral reefs start declining from 2030.

Considerable effect on microbes, pathogens, and insects

Increasing temperature would increase fertilizer requirement for the same production targets; and result in higher emissions

Increasing sea and river water temperatures are likely to affect fish breeding, migration, and harvests. Coral reefs start declining from 2030.

Increased water, shelter, and energy requirement for livestock; implications for milk production

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE- ANOTHER DRIVER IN AGRICULTUREIncrease in CO2Increase in temperatureChange in precipitationSea level riseVariability and extreme events such

as floods and drought

IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE May alter spatial and temporal demands

and supply by impacting:Food production Stability and sustainabilityEmployment ProfitabilityTrade & economyGlobal financial crisis

INFORMATION NEEDS- SCENARIOSChanges in co2 with time

Spatial and temporal changes in temperature and rainfall

Impact on groundwater and surface water availability, floods and droughts, sea level rise

IMPACT ASSESSMENT- INFORMATION NEEDS Where, how and at what cost food (crops, livestock

products and fish) can be produced to meet the increasing demand and/or what alternative technologies would be needed to meet the desired production targets?

Which region and the social group would be more affected as a consequence of global environmental change?

Which pests will start migrating to currently uninfected areas?

How does climate change affect the quality of cereals, spices, medicinal plants, tea and coffee?

How inter-state and international trade of different commodities is likely to be affected by global warming considering differential impacts on competing states and countries?

ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION FRAMEWORK Greater demand for (quality) food; yields

need to increase by 30-50% by 2030 Increasing urbanization and

globalization Increasing competition from other

sectors for land, energy, water and capital

Climate change a continuous process; greater focus on short-term actions on adaptation and mitigation

MITIGATION OF CLIMATIC CHANGE/ FEEDBACKS ON ENVIRONMENT : INFORMATION NEEDS

Can alternate land use systems such as plantation crops and agroforestry increase carbon sequestration and yet meet food demand?

How much area can be taken out from agriculture for forestry; where and what policy measures would be needed?

How much carbon is conserved by limited tillage options? For how long and in which regions?

What policies and technologies would encourage the farmers to enrich organic matter in the soil and thus improve soil health?

KEY ADAPTATION STRATEGIES Assisting farmers in coping with current

climatic risks Intensifying food production systems Improving land and water management Enabling policies Strengthening adaptation research New varieties: drought/heat resistant New farm management practices Change in land use Watershed management Agri-insurance

SEQUESTERING SOIL CARBON AND MITIGATING GHGS Addition of organic manures, minimal

tillage, agro-forestry Alternate drying in irrigated paddies Management practices to increase

nitrogen use efficiency Increasing fuel efficiency in agri.

machines Improved management of livestock diet

These strategies have costs and other implications

FACILITATING MECHANISMS FOR PAYMENTS TO FARMERS FOR CARBON SEQUESTRATION

CDM does not specifically include carbon sequestration and mitigation in agriculture

Agricultural GHG mitigation options are cost-competitive

If included in future agreements, would also lead to better soil fertility and higher income for the farmers in addition to the primary goal of carbon sequestration.

NEW INITIATIVES OF ICAR

Thrust areas prioritized based on consultation

A Network - ‘Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability of Indian Agriculture to Climatic Change’ launched in 2004

Network expanded in 11th plan with 23 centers

Multi-Disciplinary Expert Group established for planning and monitoring

Climate change identified as a priority area for National Agricultural Innovations Project (NAIP) funding

CONCLUSIONSClimate change is a realityIndian agriculture is likely to suffer losses

due to heat, erratic weather, and decreased irrigation availability

Adaptation strategies can help minimize negative impacts

These need research, funding, and policy support

Costs of adaptation and mitigation are unknown but likely to be high; costs of inaction could be even higher

Start with ‘no-regrets’ adaptation options

Climate change…Is it the Beginning of the end..??

The earth is heating..So is the environment..

Now..Its Upto Us..What We can Do..??

NEED OF THE HOUR Come Forward..

Save Agriculture..to

sustain ourselves..

PRESENTED TO, DR. P.V.N.PRASAD, PRINCIPLE SCIENTIST, COLLEGE FARM.

PRESENTED BY,

SANDEEP SAMAL, BA-12-117,BATCH-’C’,3RD YEAR B.SC(AG)