global climate change:

Global Climate Global Climate Change:Change:

by by

Jim KelleyJim Kelley

Separating the ScienceSeparating the ScienceFrom the FictionFrom the Fiction

04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley V

isible Light

Visible Light

Heat

Heat

The Natural GreenhouseThe Natural Greenhouse

NaturalNaturalGreenhouseGreenhouse

04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelley

StratosphereStratosphere

TroposphereTroposphere

6 to 12 miles6 to 12 miles

TemperatureTemperature 57ºF 140ºF

Natural GreenhouseNatural Greenhouse(Theory)(Theory)

Natural GreenhouseNatural Greenhouse+Weather+Weather

(Observed}(Observed}

The Greenhouse Effect Actually Makes It Too WarmThe Greenhouse Effect Actually Makes It Too Warm


Hot Humid Air Rises and Condenses

Evaporation Removes HeatEvaporation Removes Heat

Precipitation Releases Heat and Causes Further Rising

Cool, DryAir Sinks

Weather Moves Heat Up and Poleward


Anecdotal Information, Anecdotal Information, Especially About Weather, Especially About Weather, Is Notoriously Unreliable!Is Notoriously Unreliable!

Point #1Point #1


““Things are more like Things are more like they are today than they'vethey are today than they've

ever been before”ever been before”

Dwight David EisenhowerDwight David Eisenhower


Point #2Point #2

Armageddon Armageddon Is Not Is Not AlwaysAlwaysJust Around Just Around the Cornerthe Corner


You Are Here…Always

How Often Have You SeenHow Often Have You SeenA Figure Like This?A Figure Like This?

Time


Because Depending on the Because Depending on the Time Window of the ObservationsTime Window of the Observations

You Could Be Here You Could Be Here

TimeTime


……Or Here Or Here

TimeTime


…Or Almost Anywhere Or Almost Anywhere

TimeTime


In the Case of Global Climate Change,In the Case of Global Climate Change,The Most Important, Often Unasked The Most Important, Often Unasked Question Is: Question Is:

Would We Expect the Climate to be Would We Expect the Climate to be Constant over Long Periods of Time?Constant over Long Periods of Time?

All The Evidence From GeologyAll The Evidence From GeologySays the Answer is Says the Answer is ““No.”No.”


Point #3Point #3The Climate is Always ChangingThe Climate is Always Changing

The Questions Today are:The Questions Today are:

“ “How and Why Is It Changing Now”How and Why Is It Changing Now”And And

““Is the Current Change Unusual?”Is the Current Change Unusual?”


Once People Went Outside toOnce People Went Outside toFind the Answer to these QuestionsFind the Answer to these Questions

These Days it is Popular These Days it is Popular In Climate Science to UseIn Climate Science to Use

Computer Models Computer Models (called GCM’s or (called GCM’s or

General Circulation ModelsGeneral Circulation Modelsor, incorrectly, Global Climate Models)or, incorrectly, Global Climate Models)


Point #4 Point #4

Most Models Have Most Models Have Trouble ReproducingTrouble Reproducing

the Current Situation, the Current Situation, Much Less ForecastingMuch Less Forecasting

the Futurethe Future


R. Wood, Nature, 1 May 2008

Three Models’ “Predictions “of Three Models’ “Predictions “of Future Temperature in EuropeFuture Temperature in Europe

These are not Predictions,They are Scenarios


Point #5Point #5There are Problems There are Problems

With the DataWith the DataThat Indicate That Indicate

Warming,Warming, Even in Even in the U.S.the U.S.


1934


1-5ºC1-5ºC


What About theWhat About the““Hockey Stick”?Hockey Stick”?


Original “Hockey Stick” Figure, 1998Original “Hockey Stick” Figure, 1998Tem

pera

ture

An

om

aly

Tem

pera

ture

An

om

aly

(º

C)

(ºC

)


Of Course….You Are HereOf Course….You Are Here

Michael Mann (Penn State)Michael Mann (Penn State)And His Hockey StickAnd His Hockey Stick


1000AD 1500AD 1900AD1000AD 1500AD 1900ADTem

pera

ture

Ch

an

ge º

CTem

pera

ture

Ch

an

ge º

C

MedievalMedievalWarm PeriodWarm Period

Little Little Ice AgeIce Age

Figure 22 in the Intergovernmental PanelFigure 22 in the Intergovernmental PanelOn Climate Change On Climate Change Climate ChangeClimate Change, 1995, 1995

11

00

-1-1


A Few Observations about Global Climate Prediction:

1.The Longer the Work Goes On,The Less Apocalyptic Become The Predictions.

2. Climate Modeling, Using General Circulation Models (GCM’s)Is Hard Work.

3. The Role of the Ocean, Which May Be The Single Most Important Factor, Is the Least Well Understood.



1.The Longer the Work Goes On,The Less Apocalyptic Become The Predictions.

Early models which did not includea Realistic Ocean predicted the meltingof all Polar Ice, with a Sea Level rise of 60-70 meters.



1. The Longer the Work Goes On, The Less Apocalyptic Become The Predictions.

Subsequent models with a more Realistic Ocean, but no Biosphere Predicted Melting only West Antarctic Ice with a Sea Level Rise of 6-7 meters



1. The Longer the Work Goes On, The Less Apocalyptic Become The Predictions.

Current Models Predict Sea Level Rise of 18-59 cm (6-23 inches)with a Doubling of Atmospheric CO2.


Domingues, et al., Nature, 19 June 2008

Se

a L

eve

l Ris

e (m

m) 60 mm in 43 years = 5.5”/century

Satellite Data

Thermal Expansion

The Most Recent Estimates—Last June


In a More Recent Paper, Tad Pfeffer and Colleagues Showed that it is Physically Impossible to Get More than 800mm of Sea Level Rise inThis Century Even if Glaciers Flowed 40 Times Faster thanThey are Today

W.T. Pfeffer (U. Colorado), et al., Science, 5 September 2008


Argo FloatsMeasure theUpper 2000mOf the Ocean


In This month’s Physics Today, Roger Pielke Sr. Discusses

Recent Changes in the Heat Content of the Upper 700 m of the Ocean


So What About So What About Carbon Dioxide (COCarbon Dioxide (CO22)? )?


Gas NameGas Name Chemical FormulaChemical Formula Percent VolumePercent Volume

NitrogenNitrogen NN22 78.08%78.08% OxygenOxygen OO22 20.95%20.95%**WaterWater HH22OO 0 to 4%0 to 4% ArgonArgon ArAr 0.93%0.93%**Carbon Carbon DioxideDioxide COCO22 0.0380%0.0380% NeonNeon NeNe 0.0018%0.0018% HeliumHelium HeHe 0.0005%0.0005%**MethaneMethane CHCH44 0.00017%0.00017% HydrogenHydrogen HH22 0.00005%0.00005%**Nitrous OxideNitrous Oxide NN22OO 0.00003%0.00003%*Ozone*Ozone OO33 0.000004%0.000004%

* variable gases* variable gases Greenhouse GasesGreenhouse Gases

Composition of the Earth’s AtmosphereComposition of the Earth’s Atmosphere

04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelleyThe Keeling Curve The Keeling Curve


““Climate Sensitivity”Climate Sensitivity”Is how much TemperatureIs how much Temperature

Rise you get when you doubleRise you get when you doubleCarbon Dioxide aboveCarbon Dioxide abovepre-industrial levels.pre-industrial levels.

The IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) estimate for the The IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) estimate for the Climate Sensitivity was 1.5 to 4.5 °C,Climate Sensitivity was 1.5 to 4.5 °C,

The IPCC Fourth Assessment report (February 2007)The IPCC Fourth Assessment report (February 2007)estimates it to be 2-4.5 ºCestimates it to be 2-4.5 ºC

With a most likely value of 3ºCWith a most likely value of 3ºC

04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelleyLowenstein and Dimicco (SUNY, Binghamton) Science, 29 September 2006Lowenstein and Dimicco (SUNY, Binghamton) Science, 29 September 2006

Nahcolite, Soda AshNahcolite, Soda AshNaHCONaHCO33

Only Occurs at COOnly Occurs at CO22

Concentrations > 1125 ppmConcentrations > 1125 ppm

Piceance Creek Basin, ColoradoPiceance Creek Basin, Colorado


This Presence of Nahcolite in theThis Presence of Nahcolite in theGreen River Formation IndicatesGreen River Formation Indicates

That From 49 to 56 Million Years Ago, That From 49 to 56 Million Years Ago, The Level of Atmospheric COThe Level of Atmospheric CO2 2

Was At Least 3 Times the Current LevelWas At Least 3 Times the Current Level

This Presence of Nahcolite in theThis Presence of Nahcolite in theGreen River Formation IndicatesGreen River Formation Indicates

That From 49 to 56 Million Years Ago, That From 49 to 56 Million Years Ago, The Level of Atmospheric COThe Level of Atmospheric CO2 2

Was At Least 3 Times the Current LevelWas At Least 3 Times the Current Level


~20 to 35 ºC ~20 to 35 ºC (68 to 95 ºF)(68 to 95 ºF)

in Wyoming and Coloradoin Wyoming and Colorado

This Curves Shows theThis Curves Shows theTemperatures in theTemperatures in the

Geological Past as Cooler Geological Past as Cooler Or Warmer than the PresentOr Warmer than the Present

0 to 23 ºC0 to 23 ºC(32 to 74 ºF)(32 to 74 ºF)

In Wyoming TodayIn Wyoming Today

00 1.81.8

6565

225225

57057010001000

20002000300030004000400046004600

Million

Years

Ag

oM

illion

Years

Ag

o


One Big Question is:One Big Question is:Does a Rise in CODoes a Rise in CO22 Cause Cause

Temperature to RiseTemperature to RiseOr is it the Other Way Around?Or is it the Other Way Around?


Data From Antarctica at the End of the Ice Age 9 Data From Antarctica at the End of the Ice Age 9

Caillon, Caillon, et al.et al., , ScienceScience, 14 March 2003 , 14 March 2003

235 240 245 250235 240 245 250

280280

260260

240240

220220

200200Carb

on

Dio

xid

e,

pp

mC

arb

on

Dio

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e,

pp

m

Tem

pera

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pro

xy,

Ar

Tem

pera

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pro

xy,

Ar

CoCo22 Lags LagsTemperatureTemperatureBy 800 yearsBy 800 years

Thousands of years agoThousands of years ago


N. Pearson and Martin R. Palmer, Nature 406, 695-699 (17 August 2000)

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide concentrations over the past 60 million years

Age (mya)


200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400CO2(ppmv)

12

10 8

6

4

2

0

Incre

ase in

Rad

iati

ve F

orc

ing

(%

)

Richard Lindzen (MIT), Proc. Erice Meeting, 2005

Increasing CO2 ChangesClimate Logarithmically,Not Linearly

Doubling CO2 ChangesThe Atmosphere by only 2%

Linear Change

Logarithmic Change


It is Difficult to Compare the RoleIt is Difficult to Compare the RoleOf Water Vapor to Other Of Water Vapor to Other

Greenhouse Gases but the Greenhouse Gases but the Effects are Roughly:Effects are Roughly:

Water Vapor Water Vapor 36-70% 36-70%Carbon Dioxide Carbon Dioxide 9-26% 9-26%MethaneMethane 4-9% 4-9%Ozone Ozone 3-7% 3-7%


What About What About The Sun?The Sun?


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

0.06

0.04

0.02

0.00

%Change

S=Solar IrradianceS=Solar Irradiance

T=Global TemperatureT=Global Temperature

Peter Foukal (Heliophysics, Inc.) EOS, June 2003Peter Foukal (Heliophysics, Inc.) EOS, June 2003

In 2003 Peter Foukal Suggested that PerhapsIn 2003 Peter Foukal Suggested that PerhapsOne Half of Earth Warming Could be Caused One Half of Earth Warming Could be Caused

by the Warming of the Sunby the Warming of the Sun


1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 19801880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980

14.314.3

14.214.2

14.114.1

14.014.0

13.913.9

13.813.8

13.713.7

13.613.6

+0.2+0.2

+0.1+0.1

0.00.0

-0.1-0.1

-0.2-0.2

-0.3-0.3

-0.4-0.4

-0.5-0.5Tem

pera

ture

(ºC

)Tem

pera

ture

(ºC

)S

ola

r Win

d A

ctiv

ity (a

-a in

dex

Sola

r Win

d A

ctiv

ity (a

-a in

dex

Global Temperature vs. Solar Wind StrengthGlobal Temperature vs. Solar Wind Strength

Mathiesen, Mathiesen, Global Warming,Global Warming, Fig 6.5 Fig 6.5

KrakatoaKrakatoa


Le Mouél, et al., EPSL 232, 273 (2005), ElsevierSee, Pasotti, Science, 11 January, 2008

Cosmic Ray Flux and Solar Irradiance vs. Climate

Magnetic Field StrengthSolar IrradianceGlobal Temperature

“AnomalousWarming”


Tem

pera

ture

An

om

aly

(K

) 1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0

-0.2

Scafetta, N. (Duke), and West, B., (U.S. Army Research Office}Physics Today, March 2008

Global Temperature Anomaly and Total Solar Irradiance

Temperature compared to

1890-1910

TemperatureFiltered

2 Solar Cycle Models


1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 20001880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

14.314.3

14.214.2

14.114.1

14.014.0

13.913.9

13.813.8

13.713.7

13.613.6

Tem

pera

ture

(ºC)

Tem

pera

ture

(ºC)

Mathiesen, Mathiesen, Global Warming,Global Warming, Fig 6.4 Fig 6.4

77

66

55

44

33

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11

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Glo

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arb

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Em

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arb

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GT/Y

rGlobal Temperature vs. Carbon EmissionsGlobal Temperature vs. Carbon Emissions

04/21/2304/21/23 jim kelleyjim kelleySolanski, Solanski, et. al.et. al. (Max-Plank Inst), (Max-Plank Inst), NatureNature, 28 October 2004, 28 October 2004

We Know That for the Past 65 Years We Have We Know That for the Past 65 Years We Have Been in an Unusually Active Period For Sunspots, Been in an Unusually Active Period For Sunspots,

Which Increases Outgoing Solar EnergyWhich Increases Outgoing Solar Energy

8080

6060

4040

2020

00Su

nsp

ot

Nu

mb

er

Su

nsp

ot

Nu

mb

er

10001000 1200 1400 1600 1800 20001200 1400 1600 1800 2000


One of the Lines of Evidence for the Sun’s Role Comes from

Apparent Climate Change on Mars

ErosionOf thePolar

Ice Cap

OdysseyImages, JPL

1999 2001



1965 1970 1975 1980 19851965 1970 1975 1980 1985

5050

4040

3030

200200

100100

00

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Two Weeks Ago, in the 7 NovemberTwo Weeks Ago, in the 7 NovemberIssue of Issue of Science Science MagazineMagazine

A Team of Investigators Reported on A Team of Investigators Reported on A Stalagmite From a Cave in ChinaA Stalagmite From a Cave in China

Which Recorded the Strength of the Which Recorded the Strength of the Chinese Monsoon for 1810 yearsChinese Monsoon for 1810 years

Wanxiang CaveWudu County

Gansu ProvinceZhang, P., Zhang, P., et al., et al.,

ScienceScience7 November7 November2008, p. 9402008, p. 940

DACP MWP LIA

CWPWet

Dry

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000Year (AD)

Chinese Monsoon Intensity


DACP MWP LIA

CWPWet

Dry


200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000Year (AD)

Longxi Drought Record


DACP MWP LIA

CWPWet

Dry

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000Year (AD)



DACP MWP LIA

CWPWet

Dry

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000Year (AD)


Tang MingSong


DACP MWP LIA

CWPWet

Dry

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000Year (AD)


Retreat

European Glaciers

Advance


DACP MWP LIA

CWP

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000Year (AD)


Warm

Chinese Temperature (Model)Cool

15.0

14.5

14.0

13.5

Tem

pera

ture

ºC


DACP MWP LIA

CWP

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000Year (AD)


Warm

Mann Temperature (Hockey Stick Model)Cool

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

An

om

aly

ºC


DACP MWP LIA

CWP

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000Year (AD)


Solar Modulation

1000

500

0

Sola

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Fu

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Is It Really Is It Really GlobalGlobal Warming? Warming?


Change In Temperature1958-2000


Remember that the OceanIs 1000 Times More Important That the Atmosphere inDetermining the Earth’s Climate


Point #6Point #6 Climate Change Climate Change

Of the Predicted MagnitudeOf the Predicted MagnitudeIs Not UnusualIs Not Unusual

Nor UnprecedentedNor Unprecedented


Roger Pielke, Jr. Roger Pielke, Jr.

Professor in the Environmental Studies Professor in the Environmental Studies Program and a Fellow of the Cooperative Program and a Fellow of the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences (CIRES). Environmental Sciences (CIRES). (University of Colorado At Boulder). (University of Colorado At Boulder).

Roger Pielke, Sr., Senior Research Scientist CIRES, University of Colorado at Boulder and Professor Emeritus Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University


Roger Pielke, Sr.Roger Pielke, Sr.Points OutPoints Out

That The TypicalThat The TypicalPattern of ClimatePattern of Climate

Change is Change is Rapid WarmingRapid Warming

Followed by Followed by Slow CoolingSlow Cooling

At AllAt AllTime ScalesTime Scales

0 thousand years ago 1500 thousand years ago 150

30,000 years ago 45,00030,000 years ago 45,000


15ºC in 100-1000 years = 1.5º- 15ºC per Century15ºC in 100-1000 years = 1.5º- 15ºC per CenturyCurrent warming is at about 0.5ºC over theCurrent warming is at about 0.5ºC over the

last centurylast century

The IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) estimate for the The IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) estimate for the Climate Sensitivity is 1.5 to 4.5 °C; and the average Climate Sensitivity is 1.5 to 4.5 °C; and the average

surface temperature is projected to increase surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8 Celsius degrees over the period 1990 to 2100, by 1.4 to 5.8 Celsius degrees over the period 1990 to 2100,

with a most likely figure of 3ºCwith a most likely figure of 3ºC


Wally BroeckerWally Broecker

Newberry Professor ofNewberry Professor ofEarth & Environmental SciencesEarth & Environmental Sciences

Lamont-Doherty Earth ObservatoryLamont-Doherty Earth ObservatoryColumbia University Columbia University


Wally Broecker’s Ocean “Conveyer Belt””


Locations of the World’s Marine Science Centers

?

?? ?

?


In December 2005, Harry Bryden, et al.,

(National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, U.K.)

Nature, Claimed to have shown a 30% Decrease

in the MOC, Leading to a Spate of Newspaper Articles

About an Impending New Ice Age in Europe

In December 2005, Harry Bryden, et al.,

(National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, U.K.)

Nature, Claimed to have shown a 30% Decrease

in the MOC, Leading to a Spate of Newspaper Articles

About an Impending New Ice Age in Europe


It has since been shown (Science, 23 August 2007)

by the same authors, Bryden et al., that the Change Reported was

part of a Natural Fluctuation and That the MOC had Speeded Back Up.

The Name of Dr. Bryden’sResearch Program is RAPID

(Rapid Climate Change Program)

It has since been shown (Science, 23 August 2007)

by the same authors, Bryden et al., that the Change Reported was

part of a Natural Fluctuation and That the MOC had Speeded Back Up.

The Name of Dr. Bryden’sResearch Program is RAPID

(Rapid Climate Change Program)


European readers should be reassuredthat the Gulf Stream's existence is a consequence of the large-scale wind system over the North Atlantic Ocean, and of the nature of fluid motion on a rotating planet. The only way to produce an ocean circulation without a Gulf Stream is either to turn off the wind system, or to stop the Earth's rotation, or both.

European readers should be reassuredthat the Gulf Stream's existence is a consequence of the large-scale wind system over the North Atlantic Ocean, and of the nature of fluid motion on a rotating planet. The only way to produce an ocean circulation without a Gulf Stream is either to turn off the wind system, or to stop the Earth's rotation, or both.

C. Wunsch, Nature, 8 April 2004, p. 601C. Wunsch, Nature, 8 April 2004, p. 601


C. Wunsch, Nature, 8 April 2004, p. 601C. Wunsch, Nature, 8 April 2004, p. 601

Real questions exist about conceivable changes in

the ocean circulation and its climate consequences.

However, such discussions are not helped by hyperbole and

alarmism. The occurrence of a climate

state without the Gulf Stream any

time soon — within tens of millions of years — has a

probability of little more than zero.


Keeleyside, et al., Nature, 1 May 1008


Smith, et al,., Science, 10 August 2007

North Atlantic Temperatures


What about the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change

(the IPCC), winner of the2007 Nobel Peace Prize shared with

Al Gore?


Point #7Point #7Climate WarmingClimate Warming

Is not all BadIs not all Bad

e.g.,e.g.,Every Year 5 Times as Many PeopleEvery Year 5 Times as Many PeopleDie from the Cold as Die of the HeatDie from the Cold as Die of the Heat

Recommended readingRecommended reading““Cool It”, by Bjorn LomborgCool It”, by Bjorn Lomborg


What Can We What Can We Do About It?Do About It?

This is Called This is Called ““Adaptation”Adaptation”


A Word About Time ScalesA Word About Time Scales

If you Stopped Pumping COIf you Stopped Pumping CO2 2 todaytodayHow Long would it take the AtmosphereHow Long would it take the Atmosphere

To Recover to Pre-Industrial levels?To Recover to Pre-Industrial levels?

Compare Ozone Reducing Gases, CFC’s, etc.Compare Ozone Reducing Gases, CFC’s, etc.And Carbon DioxideAnd Carbon Dioxide

Point #8We’re Going to do the Experiment


The Montreal Accord was ratified in 1987The Montreal Accord was ratified in 1987Ozone depletion was predicted to have a timeOzone depletion was predicted to have a time

scale of order 100 years. scale of order 100 years. We are now seeing a flattening out of a stillWe are now seeing a flattening out of a still

rising curverising curve

1987 2008 2037 1987 2008 2037 20872087


For Greenhouse Warming, the comparable For Greenhouse Warming, the comparable Time Scale is of order 1000 yearsTime Scale is of order 1000 years

The Kyoto accord took effect The Kyoto accord took effect in February, 2005in February, 2005

2005 2008 2500 2005 2008 2500 3005 3005


Status of the Kyoto AccordStatus of the Kyoto AccordAs of December 2006As of December 200620072007


So What Are We Doing So What Are We Doing About Developing AlternateAbout Developing Alternate

Energy Technology?Energy Technology?

Not Much. At Least in the Federal GovernmentNot Much. At Least in the Federal GovernmentIn the Carter Administraton UnderstoodIn the Carter Administraton Understood

The Importance of this Work.The Importance of this Work.Later Administrations, Republican Later Administrations, Republican

And Democratic, including Clinton-And Democratic, including Clinton-GoreGoreHave Not.Have Not.

Industry is Doing Much More.Industry is Doing Much More.


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30003000

20002000

10001000

001975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20051975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Total Government Energy R&D InvestmentTotal Government Energy R&D Investment

USUS

JapanJapan

GermanyGermany

Clery, Clery, ScienceScience, 9 Feb. 2007, p. 782, 9 Feb. 2007, p. 782

CarterCarter


Al Gore says He was Inspired byAl Gore says He was Inspired byRoger Revelle.Roger Revelle.

Roger was an Roger was an important contributor important contributor

to the Greenhouse Gas Ideato the Greenhouse Gas IdeaIn the late ’50’sIn the late ’50’s

Gore’s Contact with RogerGore’s Contact with RogerAmounted to a CoupleAmounted to a Couple

Of Lectures in the RequiredOf Lectures in the RequiredFreshman Science ClassFreshman Science Class

……He Got a “D” in the ClassHe Got a “D” in the Class

Ashok KhoslaTaught the Course


The whole aim of practical politicsis to keep the populace alarmed

(and hence clamorous to be led to safety)by menacing it with an endless seriesof hoblgoblins, all of them imaginary.

Henry Louis Mencken


Finally, a little personal perspective…Finally, a little personal perspective…

When I’m at work,When I’m at work, I dress like thisI dress like this

And my office And my office Looks like thisLooks like this


O. I. F.O. I. F.““Oceanography Oceanography

is Fun”is Fun”


This is the This is the Way We Have DoneWay We Have Done

Oceanography Oceanography in the Pastin the Past


Working on aWorking on aRolling DeckRolling DeckFor Months For Months

At SeaAt Sea


You Learn a LotYou Learn a LotAbout the OceanAbout the Ocean

And And How She BehavesHow She Behaves

And RespondsAnd Responds


Some People’sSome People’sIdea ofIdea of

OceanographyOceanographyIn 2008In 2008

A Ship?A Ship?What’s a Ship?What’s a Ship?


““Even When All the Experts AgreeEven When All the Experts AgreeThey May Well be Mistaken”They May Well be Mistaken”

Bertrand RussellBertrand Russell


"Only an insignificant fraction of scientists deny the global warming crisis. The time for debate is over. The science is settled."

…Al Gore, 1992Anyone who says “the science is settled”

reveals his complete ignorance of thefundamental nature of Science…Science is

always provisional!…J.C.K., 2008


1850 1900 1950 1970 1980 1850 1900 1950 1970 1980 1990 20081990 2008

Incontrovertible Evidence of Global Warming


So if you really want to be prepared…So if you really want to be prepared…

Thank You!Thank You!

global climate change:

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