global cleantech report 2012 - mondragonekoi.mondragon.edu/eu/dokumentuak/sektore-giltzarriak/global...

32
Global Cleantech Report 2012 COPENHAGEN CLEANTECH CLUSTER May, 2012 - EXECUTIVE PRESENTATION - A SNAPSHOT OF FUTURE GLOBAL MARKETS www.quartzco.com DENMARK Ryesgade 3A 2200 Copenhagen T: +45 33 17 00 00 NORWAY Wergelandsveien 21 0167 Oslo T: +47 22 59 36 00 SWEDEN Birger Jarlsgatan 7 111 45 Stockholm T: +46 (0)8 614 19 00 DOWNLOAD REPORT cphcleantech.com/global-cleantech-report

Upload: others

Post on 10-May-2020

15 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Global Cleantech Report 2012 COPENHAGEN CLEANTECH CLUSTER

May, 2012

- EXECUTIVE PRESENTATION -

A SNAPSHOT OF FUTURE GLOBAL MARKETS

www.quartzco.com

DENMARK

Ryesgade 3A

2200 Copenhagen

T: +45 33 17 00 00

NORWAY

Wergelandsveien 21

0167 Oslo

T: +47 22 59 36 00

SWEDEN

Birger Jarlsgatan 7

111 45 Stockholm

T: +46 (0)8 614 19 00

DOWNLOAD REPORT

cphcleantech.com/global-cleantech-report

3

Table of contents

1) Executive Summary

The cleantech platforms and global markets: a sector in growth

• The cleantech sector will continue to grow towards 2015 with green buildings, smart grid and offshore wind as the fastest-growing platforms

• The “centre of gravity” for cleantech growth is moving East and West

• The megacities are the main growth engines as ECO-city ambitions and principles seem to be "the new normal"

• The world's urbanisation rate will continue to be rapid, and large investments will be made in developing megacities and suburb areas

• The six megacity cleantech clusters – including the four American Hotspots and the two Great Turks – will account for the majority of the cleantech growth

The global cleantech challenge: a complex value system

• To unleash the full global potential, the cleantech sector must cross the cost of energy chasm and accelerate the industrialisation

• Complex value-creation models need to be investigated and developed in order to meet the demand for competitive integrated solutions with local content

• The traditional Go-to-Market approaches will not be suitable when addressing this new market as demand is moving towards complex value systems

• Large Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) will be a cornerstone to overcome shortage in capital and competences in the "greening" of megacities

• The global majors will presumably lead the industrialisation and set the standards for future partnering regimes

The cleantech sector in a Danish context: an opportunity or a threat?

• Today, Danish companies are well-positioned to capture value in the attractive parts of the cleantech sector

• Neglecting the change agenda can be lethal to both small and big companies in the Danish cleantech sector

• In the near future, new and more decisive intervention strategies must be developed to win the battle of the cleantech sector

2) Appendix

EXECUTIVE PRESENTATION

p. 3

p. 4

p. 5

p. 6

p. 7

p. 9

p. 10

p. 11

p. 12

p. 13

p. 15

p. 16

p. 17

p. 18

4

The cleantech sector will continue to grow towards 2015 with green buildings, smart grid and offshore wind

as the fastest-growing platforms

2010 Market

2015 Growth

7% 84% CAGR

Cleantech plaforms – market size (USD billions)

Note: Markets include all major CAPEX but not operations or commodities. Total may vary due to roundings

Sources: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis

28% 39% 3% -7% 26% 4% 66% 74% 6% 18%

THE CLEANTECH PLATFORMS AND GLOBAL MARKETS

113 15

63

59

-28

72

13 8

Geothermal

5

2 1 3

Energy

storage

7

1 6

Maritime

cleantech

8

Clean road

transport

13

1

Bioenergy

13

10 4

Solid waste

31

26

5

Offshore

wind

73

14

Solar PV

(2011-2015)

79

107

Smart grid

89

26

Onshore

wind

110

95

Building

efficiency

materials

160

47

Clean water

243

171

5

The “centre of gravity” for cleantech growth is moving East and West

Note: “centre of gravity” is used as a metaphorical term in this context

Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis

~14%

181

94

2015 2010

243

198

2015 2010

1913

2015 2010

26

11

2015 2010

168

2015 2010

287

142

2015 2010

North America

South America

Europe

Africa

Asia

Australia

~4%

~8%

~19%

~14%

~15%

CAGR >10%

CAGR 0-10%

CAGR < 0%

Onshore wind

Offshore wind

Solar

Geothermal

Bioenergy

Building efficiency materials

Smart grid

Clean road/EV

Clean water

Solid waste

Onshore wind

Offshore wind

Solar

Geothermal

Bioenergy

Building efficiency materials

Smart grid

Clean road/EV

Clean water

Solid waste

Onshore wind

Offshore wind

Solar

Geothermal

Bioenergy

Building efficiency materials

Smart grid

Clean road/EV

Clean water

Solid waste

Onshore wind

Offshore wind

Solar

Geothermal

Bioenergy

Building efficiency materials

Smart grid

Clean road/EV

Clean water

Solid waste

Onshore wind

Offshore wind

Solar

Geothermal

Bioenergy

Building efficiency materials

Smart grid

Clean road/EV

Clean water

Solid waste

Onshore wind

Offshore wind

Solar

Geothermal

Bioenergy

Building efficiency materials

Smart grid

Clean road/EV

Clean water

Solid waste

THE CLEANTECH PLATFORMS AND GLOBAL MARKETS

The global market for cleantech across regions, 2010- 2015E (USD billions)

6

Cities have the power to influence cleantech investments

through large projects Top-30 cities will drive 20% of the GDP growth from 2010-20

The megacities are the main growth engines as ECO-city ambitions and principles seem to be "the new

normal"

Top-30

cities

Total GDP growth,

2010-2020

Total population

growth, 2010-2020

20%

60%

100%

10% 100%

Top-600

cities

ROW

Source: McKinsey & Co, Brookings Institute, PWC, UN, World Bank, C40, MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis

THE CLEANTECH PLATFORMS AND GLOBAL MARKETS

Area

Transport

Buildings

Waste

Water

Energy supply

Outdoor lighting

City power Number of city projects

ECO-city definition

ECO-cities cover five focus areas which contribute to improve the

quality of life in cities while using resources in a sustainable way

and reducing environmental impact

• Urban transport

• Waste

• Renewable and smart energy generation and distribution

• Water

• Building energy efficiency

7

The world's urbanisation rate will continue to be rapid, and large investments will be made in developing

megacities and suburb areas

2010 2015 2020

Rural

areas 50%

(6,84)

48%

(7,22)

46%

(7,57)

2025 2030

43%

(7,91)

41%

(8,22)

50% Urban

areas 52% 54% 57%

59%

Share of the world's population living in urban areas

Per cent (billion people)

Example of Chinese investments in megacity developments

China is planning to

invest DKK 1.800

billion across 160

infrastructure projects

over the next couple

of years to merge

nine cities in South

China, creating a city

with 42 million

inhabitants*

Total investment in urban infrastructure in China over the next

five years is expected to hit GBP 685 billion, with an additional

GBP 300 billion spend on high-speed rail and GBP 70 billion on

urban transport

British Chamber of Commerce

THE CLEANTECH PLATFORMS AND GLOBAL MARKETS

*The Telegraph, 24 Jan 2011, by Malcolm Moore in Shanghai and Peter Foster in Beijing

Source: World Economic Forum; The Economist; British Chamber of Commerce

8

-

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

10.000

- 50 100 150 200 250 300

The six megacity cleantech clusters – including the four American Hotspots and the two Great Turks – will

account for the majority of the cleantech growth

Indian megagrowth

Wealth creators

Rapid

urbanisation

Great BRIC+

Absolute GDP Growth ($ billion)

Ab

so

lute

Po

pu

lati

on

Gro

wth

(10

3)

THE CLEANTECH PLATFORMS and GLOBAL MARKETS

Great Turks

Note: The majority of these cities have set Eco city targets for e.g. emissions and have Eco city projects under way

Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis

1

2

5

6

4

3

Top-200 large cities' growth trajectories, 2012-2020

American

Hotspots

9

Table of contents

EXECUTIVE PRESENTATION

1) Executive summary

The cleantech platforms and global markets: a sector in growth

• The cleantech sector will continue to grow towards 2015 with green buildings, smart grid and offshore wind as the fastest-growing platforms

• The “centre of gravity” for cleantech growth is moving East and West

• The megacities are the main growth engines as ECO-city ambitions and principles seem to be "the new normal"

• The world's urbanisation rate will continue to be rapid, and large investments will be made in developing megacities and suburb areas

• The six megacity cleantech clusters – including the four American Hotspots and the two Great Turks – will account for the majority of the cleantech growth

The global cleantech challenge: a complex value system

• To unleash the full global potential, the cleantech sector must cross the cost of energy chasm and accelerate the industrialisation

• Complex value-creation models need to be investigated and developed in order to meet the demand for competitive integrated solutions with local content

• The traditional Go-to-Market approaches will not be suitable when addressing this new market as demand is moving towards complex value systems

• Large Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) will be a cornerstone to overcome shortage in capital and competences in the "greening" of megacities

• The global majors will presumably lead the industrialisation and set the standards for future partnering regimes

The cleantech sector in a Danish context: an opportunity or a threat?

• Today, Danish companies are well-positioned to capture value in the attractive parts of the cleantech sector

• Neglecting the change agenda can be lethal to both small and big companies in the Danish cleantech sector

• In the near future, new and more decisive intervention strategies must be developed to win the battle of the cleantech sector

2) Appendix

p. 3

p. 4

p. 5

p. 6

p. 7

p. 9

p. 10

p. 11

p. 12

p. 13

p. 15

p. 16

p. 17

p. 18

10

So far, no cleantech or clean energy industry has managed

to cross the cost of energy chasm without legislative support

through incentives or codes

In order to become a viable global industry, cleantech must

reduce cost of energy to become independent of governmental

support

To unleash the full global potential, the cleantech sector must cross the cost of energy chasm and accelerate

the industrialisation

In 2035, subsidies to renewables reach almost USD 250

billion in the New Policies Scenario. Onshore wind becomes

competitive around 2020 in the European Union … All other

technologies require continuing subsidies

World Energy Outlook 2011

243Offshore wind

Coal 109

… smart grid and building energy efficiency equipment and

services are the most probable ones crossing the cost of

energy chasm since they are able to reduce alternative

investments in infrastructure while reducing the operating cost

The Global Cleantech Report 2012

* Estimated for plants entering into service in 2016. Unit is 2012 USD

** The extra cost varies between countries due to difference in local build culture, certification programmes and green build material production

Source: World Energy Outlook; Reuters; World Business Council Sustainable Development – BCI Survey; Quartz+Co analysis; MEC Intelligence analysis

Time M

ark

et p

en

etr

ation

Cost of energy chasm

5 6

7

8 9

1

2 3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1

2

3

4

Green buildings

Solar PV

Solid waste

Offshore wind

Onshore wind

Bioenergy

Smart grid

Geothermal

Clean road transport

Coal Gas Oil

Next gen.

cleantech

THE GLOBAL CLEANTECH CHALLENGE

Sample technology maturity curve EXAMPLES ILLUSTRATIVE Coal vs. wind – global average costs* (USD/MWh)

"Non-green" vs. green building – extra up-front cost for green building**

Green building – China 28%

Green building – Germany 17%

Green building – US 16%

11

Complex value-creation models need to be investigated and developed in order to meet the demand for

competitive integrated solutions with local content

Transport infrastructure CAPEX saving

Water utility CAPEX saving

Energy/water subsidy saving

Energy infrastructure CAPEX saving

Green building extra CAPEX

0

Net benefit

Retaining attractive population

Attractive lucrative jobs

Job creation from local content

0 0

Affordable Greening - e.g. Lagos Comfort Evolution - e.g. Mexico City Branded City - e.g. London

$Business case = (utility CAPEX saving) + (OPEX saving) + (job creation) + (less CO2 emissions) + .... Complex value creation

Financial Societal Environmental

THE GLOBAL CLEANTECH CHALLENGE

City segment

Value (USD)

Savings from integrated "One System" solutions across city segments

Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis

ILLUSTRATIVE

City segment description • Driven by extreme urbanization and low GDP

• Need to create a large growth in new housings

• Making these housings and infrastructure

“green” can create the lowest total CAPEX for

water, electricity and waste

• Evident in most large and fast growing cities

in developing countries

• Strong urbanization in recent years

• Focus on livability through buildings with

improved comfort, more efficient

transportation and typically most important –

clean water and clean air

• Large cities in the developed world which are

competing against each other to attract the

right companies and to be a very attractive

place to live for its citizens

• The ECO city projects are not a “need” driven

ambition but a strive towards being a truly

better place

12

… to a macro approach where purchasing decisions are co-

ordinated and made on an aggregated level across sectors

From a micro-thinking approach with multiple customer

touch-points across sectors …

Master

planning

The traditional Go-to-Market approaches will not be suitable when addressing this new market as demand is

moving towards complex value systems

Traditional go-to-market approach Market approach towards megacities

Suppliers Suppliers Suppliers Suppliers

Energy Transport Water Buildings

Energy Transport Water Buildings

Suppliers

ILLUSTRATIVE ILLUSTRATIVE

THE GLOBAL CLEANTECH CHALLENGE

Source: Quartz+Co analysis

13

Large Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) will be a cornerstone to overcome shortage in capital and

competences in the "greening" of megacities

Lack of capital

Cities are

empowered to

implement new

sustainable projects

but limited by access

to capital

30%57%

100%

PPP & ADB's

Gov. Funds

Urban Local

2020

20%

50%

2011

10%

33%

Note: PPP = Public-Private Partnerships, ADB = Asia Development Bank

Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis

Lack of

competences

Competences for

sustainable planning

and implementation

are in shortage

THE GLOBAL CLEANTECH CHALLENGE

India case: Expected development in funding

of regional projects in India Competition for resources is fierce.

Because of growth pressures and

capital constraints, compromises

are often reached to serve more

interests rather than to serve more

people more effectively

The World Bank – Ecological Cities

as Economic Cities 2010

Cities in developing countries face

much tougher challenges than do

their counterparts in developed

countries. Technical capacity is

often lacking

The World Bank – Ecological Cities

as Economic Cities 2010

14

Case 1: Veolia and Suez

Global leaders in water, French

Veolia Environnement (Vivendi)

and Suez Environnement have

partnered on PPP water

projects and have pioneered

the PPP model, injecting

finance into the system and

driving market growth and

consolidation.

In a PPP, ownership of assets

remains public and only certain

functions are delegated to a

private company for a specific

period.

Case 2: Toshiba

The Japanese major global

player Toshiba is driving some

part of the Delhi Mumbai

Corridor through large scale

PPP projects funded by Japan

Inc.

Consortium of Japanese

companies (Toshiba-Tokyo

Gas-NEC) have signed a MoU*

on a priority ECO-city project.

Case 3: Keppel Corp

Tianjin Eco-city is sponsored

by Keppel Corp from

Singapore.

The Keppel Group was

entrusted to lead the Singapore

private sector consortium for a

bilateral co-operation project

and works in close tandem with

a Chinese consortium partner

to guide the 50-50 joint venture

– Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-

City Investment and

Development Co.,

Ltd. (SSTEC) – in its role as

master developer of the Tianjin

Eco-city.

The global majors will presumably lead the industrialisation and set the standards for future partnering

regimes

THE GLOBAL CLEANTECH CHALLENGE

* Memorandum of Understanding

Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis

Case 4: Siemens

Siemens' new Infrastructure &

Cities Sector will manage the

company's global business with

cities and infrastructures. The

new Sector, with around 87.000

employees, will contain the

Mobility and Building

Technology Divisions from the

Industry Sector, as well as the

Power Distribution Division and

Smart Grid business from the

Energy Sector.

Key Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) success cases

15

Table of contents

EXECUTIVE PRESENTATION

p. 3

p. 4

p. 5

p. 6

p. 7

p. 9

p. 10

p. 11

p. 12

p. 13

p. 15

p. 16

p. 17

p. 18

1) Executive summary

The cleantech platforms and global markets: a sector in growth

• The cleantech sector will continue to grow towards 2015 with green buildings, smart grid and offshore wind as the fastest-growing platforms

• The “centre of gravity” for cleantech growth is moving East and West

• The megacities are the main growth engines as ECO-city ambitions and principles seem to be "the new normal"

• The world's urbanisation rate will continue to be rapid, and large investments will be made in developing megacities and suburb areas

• The six megacity cleantech clusters – including the four American Hotspots and the two Great Turks – will account for the majority of the cleantech growth

The global cleantech challenge: a complex value system

• To unleash the full global potential, the cleantech sector must cross the cost of energy chasm and accelerate the industrialisation

• Complex value-creation models need to be investigated and developed in order to meet the demand for competitive integrated solutions with local content

• The traditional Go-to-Market approaches will not be suitable when addressing this new market as demand is moving towards complex value systems

• Large Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) will be a cornerstone to overcome shortage in capital and competences in the "greening" of megacities

• The global majors will presumably lead the industrialisation and set the standards for future partnering regimes

The cleantech sector in a Danish context: an opportunity or a threat?

• Today, Danish companies are well-positioned to capture value in the attractive parts of the cleantech sector

• Neglecting the change agenda can be lethal to both small and big companies in the Danish cleantech sector

• In the near future, new and more decisive intervention strategies must be developed to win the battle of the cleantech sector

2) Appendix

16

Clean water 1. Grundfos

2. Novozymes

3. 7T

1. Top 50

2. Top 100

3. Top 50

Green buildings

1. Rockwool

2. VKR

3. Grundfos

4. Danfoss

5. Kamstrup

1. Top 5

2. Top 10

3. Top 10

4. Top 10

5. Top 50

Onshore wind

1. Vestas

2. Siemens

3. AH industries

4. Hydratech

1. Top 10

2. Top 10

3. Top 10

4. Top 10

Smart grid 1. DONG Energy

2. EnergiNet

1. Top 50

2. Top 50

Solar 1. Danfoss Power Electronics 1. Top 50

Offshore wind

1. Vestas/Siemens

2. DONG Energy

3. A2Sea

4. NKT

5. Bladt

1. Top 5

2. Top 5

3. Top 5

4. Top 10

5. Top 10

Solid waste 1. DONG Energy

2. Kommune Kemi

3. Hårslev Industries

1. Top 50

2. Top 50

3. Top 10

Bioenergy 1. Babcock

2. Novozymes

3. DONG Energy

1. Top 10

2. Top 10

3. Top 50

Clean road transport 1. Better Place

2. Danfoss

1. Top 10

2. Top 20

Maritime cleantech 1. Desmi

2. Alfa Laval Aalborg

3. AP Møller Maersk

1. Top 10

2. Top 5

3. Top 5

Today, Danish companies are well-positioned to capture value in the attractive parts of the cleantech sector

* Indicative global rating in niche market, e.g. Rockwool in the insulation market or Grundfos in the water utility equipment market based on MEC Intelligence analysis

Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis

THE CLEANTECH SECTOR IN A DANISH CONTEXT

Cleantech industry Competence level in DK Global market size 2015 Sample companies Global ranking within market*

17

Business cases

Innovation

Markets

Partners

Sales and marketing

Customer relations

Business models

Neglecting the change agenda can be lethal to both small and big companies in the Danish cleantech sector

THE CLEANTECH SECTOR IN A DANISH CONTEXT

Bu

sin

es

s s

trate

gy

Va

lue

pro

po

sit

ion

G

o t

o M

ark

et

Strategic focus area

Risk diversification and avoidance

Stand-alone (single bottom line)

Walled garden

BRIC market, Europe and North America

DIY

"Push"

Industrial

From ... ... to

Risk sharing/Risk management

Integrated system business case

(multiple bottom lines)

Open garden

Mega- and large cities focus on global

scale

Partner with lead turnkey providers

Push/pull (key opinion leaders)

Institutional and industrial

Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis

Products Engineering and "High end" Scalable "mass production" developed

to local needs

18

In the near future, new and more decisive intervention strategies must be developed to win the battle

of the cleantech sector

THE CLEANTECH SECTOR IN A DANISH CONTEXT

Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis

The right place: large cities

Relations must be build with stakeholder

on city level globally

Community presence

and relationships are

critical to pave the way

for commercial success

in megacities

The right partners: leading solution

providers

Participate in PPP and Partner with

leading solution/turnkey providers

Megacities are

demanding integrated

solutions in which

previously independent

components and

services are bundled

The right offering: local needs and local

value creation

Develop offering and new business

models embracing complex value creation

and multiple bottom lines at local level

Local economies and

societal agendas are

highest priority for

megacity stakeholders

Go-to-market

model

• How can your company best succeed in

the market with the new channel needs

and market logic?

– As a stand-alone company only offering

own products and services

– Through partnerships with other players

offering more integrated solutions

Value

proposition

• To what extent is your stand-alone offering

unique and innovative in the market in

terms of other solutions from competitors

and substitutes?

Business

strategy

• How, and in what order, should you

address the different subsegments

in the market (cities/geographies)?

Organisation

al capabilities

• What are the organisational requirements

needed to be able to address this new

channel/market?

• To what extent do your current governance

and competences match the needs?

Key considerations … Key beliefs … "Recommendations …"

19

Table of contents

1) Executive summary

2) Appendix

Cleantech sectors

• Clean water

• Green buildings

• Onshore wind

• Smart grid

• Solar

• Offshore wind

• Solid waste

• Bioenergy

• Clean road transport

• Geothermal

The Megacity Clusters

EXECUTIVE PRESENTATION

p. 19 + 20

p. 21

p. 22

p. 23

p. 24

p. 25

p. 26 + 27

p. 28

p. 29

p. 30

p. 31

20

As the largest and fastest-growing market globally, Asia dominates the water market as key developed

markets mature

Clean water – CAPEX and OPEX made by Utilities, Municipalities and Industries – Global market across regions, 2010-2015E

(USD billions)

~2% % CAGR (2010-2015)

~5%

~6%

~5%

~7%

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

~3%

Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis

High/Large

Low/Small

2520

Africa

2015 2010

160

Asia

2015

220

2010

3124

Australia

2015 2010

159140

Europe

2015 2010

157142

North America

2015 2010

3325

South America

2015 2010

APPENDIX

ESTIMATE

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

21

The capital expenditure in the water sector is expected to grow from USD ~170 billion in 2010 to USD

~245 billion in 2015 or nearly 30-35% of the total water market

Clean water – CAPEX Water and Waste Water Infrastructure – Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)

~5%

~8% ~9%

~8%

~10%

~6%

Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis

107

Africa

2015 2010

85

54

Asia

2015 2010

128

Australia

2015 2010

62

47

Europe

2015 2010

61

48

North America

2015 2010

13

8

South America

2015 2010

APPENDIX

% CAGR (2010-2015)

High/Large

Low/Small

ESTIMATE

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

22

Europe is projected to be the largest market for green buildings in 2015 followed by North America and

Asia – Asia is expected to grow at almost double the rate of Europe

Green building materials – CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)

~32%

425

107

2015 2010

563

202

2015 2010

00

2015 2010

81

2015 2010

35

6

2015 2010

321

60

2015 2010

North

America

South

America

Europe

Africa and

Middle East

Asia

Australia

N.a. ~52%

~42%

~40%

~23%

Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis

APPENDIX

% CAGR (2010-2015)

High/Large

Low/Small

ESTIMATE

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

23

Value-wise, the key onshore wind markets are large and stagnant. Growth is coming from new regions

Onshore wind – CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)

~3%

2219

2015 2010

2524

2015 2010

32

2015 2010

92

2015 2010

41

2015 2010

4747

2015 2010

North

America

South

America

Europe

Africa

Asia

Australia

~11%

~31%

~25%

~0%*

~1%

* Global price-erosion of 5% p.a., based on sample analysis of key turbine manufacturers, balancing out increase in number of GW installed p.a. in Asia

Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis

APPENDIX

% CAGR (2010-2015)

High/Large

Low/Small

ESTIMATE

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

24

Asia (China) is expected to become the predominant smart grid market by 2015 growing rapidly from 2010

to 2015 and outpacing both Europe and North America

Smart grid – CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)

~11%

74

2015 2010

94

2015 2010

00

2010 2015

21

2015 2010

71

19

2010 2015

North

America

South

America

Europe

Africa

Asia

Australia

NA ~21%

NA

~31%

~22%

Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis

APPENDIX

00

2015 2010

% CAGR (2010-2015)

High/Large

Low/Small

ESTIMATE

INDICATIVE

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

25

2011 was "PEAK Solar". Towards 2015 the European solar market will drop significantly while all other

markets demonstrate strong growth led by North America

Solar energy – CAPEX Global market across regions, 2011-2015E (USD billions)

South

America

~29%

~5%

~-22%

Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis

2011 2015

Asia

14 17

2011 2015

Australia 0 1

2011 2015

Africa 0 0

2011 2015

Europe

82

30

2011 2015

North America

9

26

~30%

2011 2015

South America 0 0

NA. NA.

APPENDIX

% CAGR (2010-2015)

High/Large

Low/Small

ESTIMATE

INDICATIVE

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

26

Northern Europe is projected to maintain its status as the largest offshore wind market in 2015 and Asia,

North America and South America is projected to experience rapid growth

Offshore wind – CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)

~72%

12

0

2015 2010

38

14

2015 2010

00

2015 2010

20

2010 2015

00

2015 2010

21

0

2015 2010

North

America

South

America

Europe

Africa

Asia

Australia

NA. ~60%

NA.

~74%

~22%

Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis

% CAGR (2012-2015)

APPENDIX

% CAGR (2010-2015)

High/Large

Low/Small

ESTIMATE

INDICATIVE

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

27

The global market for solid waste management is expected to grow from nearly USD 425 billion in 2005

to nearly USD 500 billion in 2020

Solid waste* – CAPEX and OPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)

~3%

~7%

~4%

~3%

* The water market comprises expenditure on both equipment and services. The waste market for Africa is primarily comprised of investment into the collection services

and hence has not been studied. The Australian market is comprised of only 2% of the global market and hence is considered too small to be considered for the study

Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis

2010

153

2015

184

Asia 2010 2015

Europe

129 149

2010 2015

North America

110 128

1410

2010 2015

South America

APPENDIX

00

2015 2010

00

2015 2010

NA.

NA.

% CAGR (2010-2015)

High/Large

Low/Small

ESTIMATE

INDICATIVE

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

28

More than 90% of the expenditure on solid waste is in services or operations. The new investments needed

in the municipal waste management sector are only a fraction of the market size amounting to nearly USD

25-35 billion annually

Solid waste* 10-year investments needed by sector (percentage)

* This investment size might not be realised due to lack of policy and institutional support

Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis

57

21

8

10

4

Africa

100% = USD 11 billion*

43

12

16

23

6

Asia

100% = USD 86 billion

25

4

10

29

32

Australia

100% = USD 4 billion

Europe

100% = USD 87 billion

53

37

10

0

Mechanical and Biological Treatment

Waste to Energy

Dump Upgrade and Closure

Landfill and Composting

0

Collection and Transfer

South America

100% = USD 16 billion*

33

23

25

19

0

Landfill and Composting

Mechanical and Biological Treatment

Waste to Energy

Dump Upgrade and Closure

Collection and Transfer

North America

100% = USD 45 billion

33

23

25

19

0

APPENDIX

% CAGR (2010-2015)

High/Large

Low/Small

ESTIMATE

INDICATIVE

29

North America to be the largest bioenergy market in 2015 followed by South America and Europe –

Australia is growing rapidly

Bioenergy – CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)

~5%

North

America

South

America

Europe

Africa

Asia

Australia

~19%

~5%

~4%

~10%

~7%

Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis

19

26

2010 2015

41 52

2015 2010

2010 2015

0 1

2015 2010

5 9

2010 2015

21 27

2010 2015

0 0

Biomass electricity production

Biofuel

APPENDIX

% CAGR (2010-2015)

High/Large

Low/Small

ESTIMATE

INDICATIVE

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

30

Asia and Europe are expected to become the leading EV and PHEV markets looking towards 2015 followed

by North America

EV and PHEV – CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)

~79%

20

2015 2010

50

2015 2010

00

2015 2010

00

2015 2010

00

2015 2010

60

2015 2010

North

America

South

America

Europe

Africa

Asia

Australia

~73% NA.

NA.

~72%

~94%

Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis

Charging infrastructure

Global market, 2010-2015E (USD billions) 10

2015 2010

~95%

APPENDIX

% CAGR (2010-2015)

High/Large

Low/Small

ESTIMATE

INDICATIVE

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

31

Asia is poised to become the largest geothermal market in 2015 followed by North America and Europe

Geothermal – CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD millions)

~11%

899

2015

1.530

2010

336

2015

1.096

2010

142

61

2015 2010

00

2015 2010

00

2010 2015

778

2015

1.922

2010

North

America

South

America

Europe

Africa

Asia

Australia

~18%

NA.

NA.

~20%

~27%

Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis

APPENDIX

% CAGR (2010-2015)

High/Large

Low/Small

ESTIMATE

INDICATIVE

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

Government support

Addressable market

Solution attractiveness

Five-year market growth potential

Market accessibility

Profit opportunity

32

The top-30 megacities can be divided into six cleantech clusters with the Great Turks growing at the same

pace as Great BRIC+

Segment Cities

Rapid

urbanisation

Lagos

Karaci

Jakarta

Wuhan

Chongqing

Indian

megagrowth

Delhi

Mumbai Kolkotta

Wealth

creators

New York

Beijing

Tokyo

Shanghai

London

Seoul

Great BRIC+

Shenzen

Sao Paolo

Hong Kong

Moscow

Mexico City

Bangkok

Tianjin

Guangzhou

Hangzhou

Bangalore

Great Turks Istanbul

Izmir

American

Hotspots

Los Angeles

Houston

Chicago

Washington

APPENDIX

Note: The majority of these cities have set Eco city targets for e.g. emissions and have Eco city projects under way

Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 50 100 150 200 250

Lagos

Wuhan

Izmir

Karachi

Bangalore

Hangzhou

Jakarta

Houston

Hong Kong

Chongqing

Washington

Bangkok

Istanbul

Moscow

Kolkata

Tianjin

Chicago

Mexico

Shenzhen

Los Angeles

Guangzhou

Sao Paolo

Seoul

Beijing

Delhi

London

New York

Tokyo

Shanghai

Mumbai

Top-30 absolute GDP growth, 2010-2020 (USD billions)

5.985

2.723

2.152

7.405

2.439

1.442

8.779

1.060

723

4.539

616

1.201

2.581

659

2.824

818

790

2.266

2.592

526

494

2.283

1.226

1.045

9.259

5.768

1.204

463

579

1.069

0 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000

Lagos

Wuhan

Izmir

Karachi

Bangalore

Hangzhou

Jakarta

Houston

Hong

Chongqing

Washington

Bangkok

Istanbul

Moscow

Kolkata

Tianjin

Chicago

Mexico

Shenzhen

Los Angeles

Guangzhou

Sao

Seoul

Beijing

Delhi

Mumbai

Shanghai

London

New York

Tokyo

Top-30 absolute population growth, 2010-2020 (103)