1. Global change impacts on groundwater and water supply an integrated modelling study from southern Germany Roland Barthel1, Tim G. Reichenau2, Markus Muerth3, Christoph Heinzeller3, Karl Schneider2, Rolf Hennicker4, Wolfram Mauser3, Tatjana Krimly5, Michael Elbers6, Anja Soboll7, Johann Wackerbauer8, Stephan Janisch4, Stephan Dabbert5, Jrgen Schmude7, Andreas Ernst6 1 Departmentof Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg,Sweden 2 Hydrogeographyand Climatology, University of Cologne, Germany Geography and Remote Sensing, Ludwig-MaximiliansUniversity Munich, Germany 4 Institute of Informatics, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich, Germany 5 Institute for Farm Management, Universitt Hohenheim, Germany 6 Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany 7 Economic Geography and Tourism Research, Ludwig-Maximiliansof Munich, Germany 8 CESifo Group, Center for Economic Studies, Munich, Germany 3 PhysicalBarthel et al.Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund1

2. Literature This presentation tried to summarize very briefly a few selected aspects from a large scale integrated research effort. It might be difficult to understand the scope and objectives based on the slides without further explanations.The presentation was largely based on the papers: Barthel, R., Janisch, S., N. Schwarz, A. Trifkovic, D. Nickel, C. Schulz, W. Mauser (2008): An integrated modelling framework for simulating regional-scale actor responses to global change in the water domain. Environmental Modelling and Software, 23, 1095-1121 (doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.02.004)Barthel, R., Reichenau T., Krimly, T., Dabbert, S., Schneider, K., Mauser, W. (2012) Integrated modeling of climate change impacts on agriculture and groundwater resources. Water Resources Management, 26,7, 1929-1951Barthel, R. (2011): An indicator approach to assessing and predicting the quantitative state of groundwater bodies on the river basin scale with a special focus on the impacts of climate change. Hydrogeology Journal (2011) 19,3: 525546. DOI: 10.1007/s10040-010-0693-yOther directly related papers: Barthel, R., Janisch, S., Nickel, D. & Trifkovic, A. (2010): Using the Multiactor-Approach in GLOWA-Danube to Simulate Decisions for the Water Supply Sector under Conditions of Global Climate Change. Water Resources Management, 24,2, 239-275 (DOI - 10.1007/s11269-009-9445-y)Barthel, R. Rojanschi, Wolf, J. & Braun, J. (2005): Large-scale water resources management within the framework of GLOWA-Danube. Part A: The groundwater model. - Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 30, 6-7, 2005, Pages 372-382Barthel, R., Jagelke, J., Gaiser, T., Printz, A. & Gtzinger, J. (2008): Aspects of choosing appropriate concepts for modelling groundwater resources in regional Integrated Water Resources Management Examples from the Neckar (Germany) and Oum catchment (Benin). - Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 33, 1-2, 92-114Soboll, A, Elbers, M., Barthel, R., Schmude, J., Ernst A., Ziller, R. (2011): Scenarios of future water demand: Regional scale modelling of the human-environment-system to support decision making under global change conditions. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 16,4 (2011) 477-498. - DOI: 10.1007/s11027-010-9274-6.Barthel et al.Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund2 3. Climate Change Global ChangeEuropean, national and federal state directivesData source: State Environmental Agency Baden-WrttembergBarthel et al.Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund3 4. Global Change Example: Agriculture - Groundwater Drivers: Changes of outer ConditionsProcesses, Budget and Property Changes Water BalanceClimateChanges of: Ecological and Economical StatesGW-RechargeGW-QuantityPlant Growth Policy / Water LawProduct Prices / Agricultural PolicyLegendIrrigationCrop YieldsN-FertilizationGW-QualityLand useFarmers IncomeFarmers Decisionsmain direction of dependency strong medium weakforemost gw-quantity related dependencyforemost gw-quality related dependencydependency related to both gw-quantity and gw-quality dependency indirect or complex or not well understood dependencySource: Barthel et al. (2012)Barthel et al.Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund4 5. Global Change Example: Agriculture - Groundwater ScenariosModels Water BalanceClimateIndicators GW-RechargeGW-QuantityPlant Growth Policy / Water LawProduct Prices / Agricultural PolicyLegendIrrigationCrop YieldsN-FertilizationGW-QualityLand useFarmers IncomeFarmers Decisionsmain direction of dependency strong medium weakforemost gw-quantity related dependencyforemost gw-quality related dependencydependency related to both gw-quantity and gw-quality dependency indirect or complex or not well understood dependencySource: Barthel et al. (2012)Barthel et al.Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund5 6. GLOWA-Danube (www.glowa-danube.de; 2001 - 2010) Integrative Techniques, Scenarios and Strategies for the Future of Water in the Upper Danube BasinBarthel et al.Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund6 7. GLOWA-Danube The Upper Danube Catchment Upper Danube Catchment: Area: 77,000 km Population: 11.5 Mio. Elevation: 290 to ~4000 m Rivers Lakes Alluvium MorainesTertiary Sediments Calcareous Alps Jurassic Karst Mesozoic Rocks Crystalline and Palaezoic RocksBarthel et al.Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund7 8. GLOWA-Danube: Project SummaryConsequences of Global Change in the Upper Danube CatchmentInterdisciplinary Approach: 18 research groups from different disciplinesIntegrated decision support tool DANUBIA, comprised of 16 fully coupled modelsContribution of our research group (IWS Stuttgart): Hydrogeological assessment Models for groundwater flow and contaminant transport Model for water supply and distributionBarthel et al.Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund8 9. The DANUBIA Simulation SystemFrom: Hennicker et al. (2010)Barthel et al.Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund9 10. GLOWA-Danube Global Change Scenarios 2011-2060 Choice 1: Climate TrendsChoice 2: Climate TypeIPCC regionalBaselineBaselineREMO regional5 warm WintersOpen competitionMM5 regionalTrend Extrapolation5 hot SummersChoice 3: Social TrendsChoice 4: InterventionsInformation Cooperation Subsidies for Water saving techn.Public welfare5 dry yearsBuild reservoirs...Baseline: Business as usualOpen competition: maximizing individual profit, less consideration of environmental and social aspectsPublic welfare: high value of environmental aspectsFrom: Global Change Atlas of the Upper Danube Catchment (2011)Barthel et al.Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund10 11. Climate Change Past Observations: Temperature (1960-2006) Winter Temperatures: + 1.5 degrees Summer Temperatures: + 2 degreesSource: Global Change Atlas of the Upper Danube CatchmentBarthel et al.Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund11 12. Climate Change Past Observations: Precipitation 1960-2006 Summer PrecipitationWinter PrecipitationSource: Global Change Atlas of the Upper Danube CatchmentBarthel et al.Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund12 13. Simulation results: Groundwater recharge and groundwater levelsRecharge Differences [mm] < -600 -600 - -301a)GnzburgGW-Level-Differences (combined) [m]b)< -10 -9.9 - -5.0-300 - -201-4.9- -2.0-200 - -101-1.9- -1.0-0.9 - 0.9-100 - -511.0 -1.9-50 - 502.0-4.951 - 100 101 - 2005.0 - 9.9Ostallgu>10>200Scenario 2036-2060 minus Reference (1970-2000)nicht modellierte Areas not modeled Bereiche with MODFLOWScenario 2011-2035 minus Reference (1970-2000)From: Barthel et al. (2012)Barthel et al.Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund13 14. Human response to groundwater change - simulating human decisions g GWL Open Competition600430500429400428300427200426100425 4240 201620212026203120362041204620512056GWL Open Competition6007345007334007323007312007301007290728 2011Barthel et al.Gnzburg district Danube low lands, arable land, wide alluvial aquifersGWR low pass filteredGWL Baseline OstallguGroundwater Recharge [mm/a]GWR20162021202620312036204120462051Groundwater Level [m.a.s.l.]2011Groundwater Level [m.a.s.l.]GWR, low pass filteredGWL Baseline GnzburgGroundwater Recharge [mm/a]GWROstallgu district pre-alpine, grassland, narrow alluvial and tertiary aquifers2056Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund14 15. Adaptation (decision making): example groundwater changes (on district level) g GWL Open Competition6004305004294004283004272004261004250424 2016GWR2021202620312036204120512056GWL Open Competition600734500733400732criticalEverything is fine300200 Groundwater Quantity 100 Indicator (Flag)731 7301237290728 20112016Gnzburg district Danube low lands, arable land, wide alluvial aquifersTranslation into decision relevant information GWR low pass filteredGWL Baseline OstallguGroundwater Recharge [mm/a]2046202120262031203620412046Groundwater Level [m.a.s.l.]2011Groundwater Level [m.a.s.l.]GWR, low pass filteredGWL Baseline GnzburgGroundwater Recharge [mm/a]GWR2051Ostallgu district pre-alpine, grasscatastrophic land, narrow alluvial and tertiary aquifers452056Barthel (2011), Hydrogeology JournalBarthel et al.Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund15 16. Modelling of human decisions : Actor Modelling Barthel, R., et al. (2008), Environmental Modelling and Software,at each time step (1 month)Barthel et al.Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund16 17. Example (schematic): Decisions made by Water Supply CompaniesModels GroundwaterFlow; Soil, groundwaterlevel, groundwater recharge, -baseflowWaterSupply-Model Assessment of state and previous developmentBarthel et al.=3Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i LundInformation campaigns, expansion of resources, crisis management17 18. Modeling of human decisions : Water Supply Decisions (choosing a plan and its actions) based on: local conditions (hydrogeology, groundwater levels) indictors (flags) individual preferences and properties and global settings Societal ScenariosBarthel et al.Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund18 19. Water Demand and Withdrawal [m3/s]Industrial Groundwater Demand [m3/s]Responses of the human actors: Household Water DemandBarthel et al.Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund19 20. ConclusionsGlobal Change impact assessment: Needs to be done in an integrated way: people and the environment will adopt to change Needs to be done on the regional scale Requires reasonable integrated scenarios, i.e. combined environmental-socioeconomic scenariosThe DANUBIA system comprises all this, but: It is a complex system that requires experienced users and has high computational demands It requires lots of input dataClimate change impact assessment on water resources Requires much better regional projections of precipitation! Purely scientific approaches to integrated modeling are probably not the ideal solutionBarthel et al.Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund20 21. More information DANUBIA is available under an open source licenseAll models, scenarios, data sources and many results are published in the Global Change Atlas of the Upper Danube Catchment, available also in English shortly at:www.glowa-danube.deBarthel et al.Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund21 22. Barthel et al.Grundvattendagarna 16-17 oktober 2013 i Lund22