global challenges to food security and poverty alleviation
TRANSCRIPT
Global challenges to food security and poverty alleviation
Alain VidalUniversité Paris-Saclay, January 2017
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A small quizz…How many extremely poor (< 1€/day) on our planet ? How many poor (< 2€/day) ? In which environment do the extremely poor live ?How many overweight ? How many suffering from obesity?One child dies from undernourishment every 5 hours ? 5 minutes ? 5 seconds ?One adult dies from obesity every 10 hours ? 10 minutes ? 10 seconds ?
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Global challenges to food security and poverty alleviation
A global food and nutrition crisisFood (and nutrition) security needs more than increased productivityReceived wisdom vs facts on rural poverty2 examples in Africaand Asia
A global food and nutrition crisis
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A food crisis in the developing world3 billion poor < 2€/day1 billion extremely poor < 1€/day800 million undernourished
Mostly in Africa and South Asia 75% are rural poor Combating hunger starts with
reducing rural poverty
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A nutrition crisis… now global
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Overweight and obesityRecent and underestimated
Source : NCD Risk Factor Collaboration, 2016
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The nutritional crisis, an unexpected consequence of the food crisis
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Food (and nutrition) security
Food security "exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access
to sufficient, safe and nutritious* food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences
for an active and healthy life"
(UN World Food Summit, 1996)
* nutrition security refers to essential vitamins and minerals required for a healthy development, esp. of children
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The causes of the global food crisis
Long term trends… Increasing demand – Increasing incomes and shifts in diets,
globalization and urbanization Decreasing supply – Insufficient growth of crop yields, low
stocks, shocks on food products supply, climate change, high energy costs
…combined with emerging short term effects that exacerbate long term trends
Speculation and biofuels production hit the poorest disproportionately
Uncertainties due to economic instability
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Population change2000-2010
Blue= decreaseRed= Increase
Data from CIESIN
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Food demand should double by 2050
Tilman & Clark, 2014
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More meat in China, more dairy in India
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
10 100 1000 10000 100000
GDP per capita (2000 constant dollars per year)
mea
t con
sum
ptio
n (k
g/ca
p/yr
) Meat China
India
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
10 100 1000 10000 100000
GDP per capita (2000 constant dollars per year)
milk
con
sum
ptio
n (k
g/ca
p/yr
)
Milk
China
India USA
USA
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Short time variations of food prices
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Mid-term effects of climate change
19
Evolution of rainfall from 1990 to 2070-2100
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Climate variability will impact on food production
Source: Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC)
• Crop yields drop by 2050 under BAU Maize 16% Rice 21% Wheat 42%
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30 to 40% of our food is lost or wasted !
Food (and nutrition) security needs more than increased productivity
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« To achieve food security… …let’s produce more »
A simple (yet simplistic) received wisdom, still dominating an ‘engineering’ supply vision of the world Once the response of agribusiness during the 2007 food crisis
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Productivity alone is not sufficientto ensure food security
Source: World Bank, FAO
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An evolving discourse, yet intertwinned with the ‘old’ one« Achieving food security requires adequate food availability, access, and use »« Access to water and irrigation is a major determinant of land productivity and the stability of yields »
World Bank World Development Report, 2008
« New systems must be built for growing and urbanizing populations, changing consumption and income patterns, and food and energy security demands »
World Bank Paper on Investing in Water Infrastructures, 2012
Received wisdom vs. facts on rural poverty
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Alleviating rural poverty starts with increasing / securing yieldsNot always true – farming is less and less the main source of income, around 50%
Source : IFAD Rural Poverty Report 2011
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The rural poor produce enough to feed their family
False - A majority of the rural poor are not net sellers of tradable food staples (but are buyers or self-sufficient)
Source : World Bank Development Report 2008
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0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,5000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Burkina Faso
Bangladesh
Bolivia
Brazil
India
Ethiopia
Per capita GNI (US$)
Cont
ributi
on o
f agr
icultu
re to
GDP
gro
wth
(%)
Ethiopia and Burkina Faso in agricul-tural phase of development
India and Bangladesh transitioning to higher value activi-ties
Bolivia emerging slowly after decades of low growth
Brazil strong growth in the 60’s and in recent years to emerge as an industrial economy
General di-rection
Rural poverty and development trajectories
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Agriculture contribution to GDP (%)
Most African countries here
Evolving economies
Gross National Income
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Gross National Income
Agriculture contribution to GDP (%) …with specific problems...
Vulnerability
Population
pressure
Industrial &
Urban
demands
Power
differences
Threats to
sustainability
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Basic support
& Protection
Food Security
Productivity &
income
increase Economic
development
& resilience
Basic needs
Meeting urgent demand growth Emerging need for
sustainability
Building productivity and capacity while securing and
offsetting the riskInvest in agricultural basics
and infrastructure
Big invest in agricultureResource-sharing & protection
Developing pathways out of farming
Benefit-sharing (trading)Demand management
Supply-chain management
…and dedicated solutions
Addressing food security and povertyTwo examples
LIMPOPO
GANGES
Livestock – securing and leveraging development in Southern Africa
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Innovation platforms in Zimbabwecreate local markets for goatsEstablished around local specific production and marketing systems (auctions)Markets raise the value ofone goat from US$10 to $60Virtuous circle where more money flows to the producer - an incentive for growing stock feed and improving rangeland management
"Everyone seems to be operating under the assumption that increasing production will increase profitability, but the reverse is actually true. If you increase profitability, then production will go up." (BMGF report on Innovation Platforms)
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A virtuous circle that triggers change to a more resilient state
S
SRecurrent droughts,increasing climatevariability, poor connection to markets
Local marketsProducers self-esteemImproved rangeland production replacing US$15 / goat of stock feed value
Improved livestock:US$ 50 per goatGoat mortality down to 10%
Rainfed maize cropping: US$16/haLivestock: US$10 per goat
Sea-level rise : an opportunity for the poor of the Ganges Delta ?
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Among world’s poorest
BBS / WorldBank / WFP (2009)
Poverty, food insecurity, vulnerability 75% of households (HH) with 0.2-0.6 ha HH income US$700/year 80% of population below national poverty line
Too much water in rainy seasonSalinity and lack of fresh water in dry season
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Untapped potential but growing pressure from salinity
Huge potential to improve food security and livelihoodsSalinity not a constraint everywhere – even an opportunity if water properly controlled
Soil salinityNone Very slightSlightStrong Very strong
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Sustainable intensification of polders:technical and institutional challenges
Lots of viable cropping systems possible with cropdiversification, fish and shrimpNeed for political changes at national and local levels
Canal maintenance and managementShifting from rice monoculture rebalancing powers
Rice Shrimp
Upper threshold limit of salinity - Rice
Date
Wat
er sa
linity
(ppt
)
Lower threshold limit of salinity - Shrimp
Daily water salinity
A few messages
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Know whom you work for
Responding to the specific needs of various farmers categoriesPrivilege inclusive approaches
Source: FAO
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Don’t content yourself with simple solutions when facing a complex problem
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References and linksCGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food (CPWF)
www.waterandfood.org
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) www.ifpri.org Global Nutrition Report (yearly)
The World Bank www.worldbank.org World Development Report 2008 on Agriculture
Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) www.fao.org
International Fund for Agriculture Development (IFAD) www.ifad.org Rural Poverty Report 2011
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Photo creditsCGIAR Challenge Program on Water and FoodThe World BankWorldFish CenterArte