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A farmer burns his dried-up rice on a paddy field stricken by drought: Mekong Delta (Vietnam) March 30, 2016. Reuters/Kham/File Photo

Prof Colin D Butler

Global challenges of climate change

Arctic environment, people and health – Building bridges between research and policymakers Univ Oulu Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research;   WHO Collaborating Centre in Global Change, Environment and Public Health

31/5/2016: Little Parliament building, Helsinki, Finland

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Diversity of response critical to social resilience

1st World Conference on Changing Atmosphere

(1988) Humanity conducting .. “globally pervasive

experiment .. ultimate consequences second only

to a global nuclear war.”

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A woman, who survived the typhoon (Haiyan) by climbing up a steep hill, stands beside her temporary home. “I’m scared living here. When the tide comes up here, I’m very nervous that my house will be destroyed,” she said. Photograph: Eleanor Farmer/Oxfam

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“Nowadays, man finds himself to be a technical giant and an ethical child.”

Cardinal Óscar Andrés Rodríguez Maradiaga (Honduras; 2015)

St. Peter's 2013, hours after Pope Benedict XVI announced his resignation (Filippo Montefortef/AFP/Getty Images) 

46 Injured after lightning, Europe May 28 2016

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Image: Mary Anne Sexsmith-Segato/The Canadian Press via AP

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Credits: Dave/Flickr Creative Commons/CC BY 2.0http://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/new-nasa-web-portal-shines-beacon-on-rising-seas/#

Fort Lauderdale, Miami, Florida

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Kevin Arrow, a volunteer with the Miami High Water Line project, explains sea level rise to onlookers in Miami Beach, Fla. (Courtesy Jayme Gershen/High Water Line)https://weather.com/science/environment/news/miami-flooding-increase-over-past-decade

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Isle de Jean Charles in southeastern Louisiana. A $48 million federal grant has been allocated to resettle its residents because of flooding. Credit Josh Haner/The New York Times

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http://m.bangkokpost.com/news/939193

Around 340,000 families have faced water shortages caused by the drought (Mekong delta April 2016)

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http://mashable.com/2016/04/29/asia-heat-wave-india/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Mashable+%28Mashable%29#T2k7Kq56bmqt

Deadly heat wave is shattering all-time records in Southeast Asia and India

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Drought in India, 2016

A crow drinks water from a tap on a hot day in Ahmadabad, India on April 25, 2016. Image: Ajit Solanki/AP http://mashable.com/2016/04/29/asia-heat-wave-india/#T2k7Kq56bmqt

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A huge well dries up due to consecutive years of droughts in Lature, India on April 11, 2016. Image: Anshuman Poyrekar/Hindustan Times/Getty Images

http://mashable.com/2016/04/29/asia-heat-wave-india/#WnTbPNCgomq8

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Indian men remove dead fish and try to rescue the surviving ones from the Vastrapur Lake that dried up due to hot weather in Ahmadabad, India on April 24, 2016.

http://mashable.com/2016/04/29/asia-heat-wave-india/

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Pakistani flood, April 2016

https://weather.com/safety/floods/news/pakistan-floods-latest-news

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Pakistani flood, April 2016

https://weather.com/safety/floods/news/pakistan-floods-latest-news

World heading for catastrophe over natural disasters, risk expert warns With cascading crises – where one event triggers another – set to rise, international disaster risk reduction efforts are woefully underfunded

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Attribution

type I and type II errors

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null hypothesis: no human role

“science community too conservative .. too many authors make Type II errors” (accept the null hypothesis in error) – ie conclude any particular extreme event has no anthropogenic (human) component”

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“Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities”

Both quotes from Trenberth in WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–9 30. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142

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Oreskes & Conway (2013):

“Western scientists built an intellectual culture based on the premise that it was worse to fool oneself into believing in something that did not exist than not to believe in something that did. Scientists referred to these positions as “type I” and “type II” errors, and established protocols designed to avoid type I errors at almost all costs”.

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Type 1 error spectrum Type 2

conservative?risky?precautionary? risky?

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Two warnings

Alberta, Canada, May 2016

http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2016/05/06/103614158-GettyImages-528458682.1910x1000.jpg

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ENCYCLICAL LETTER LAUDATO SI’OF THE HOLY FATHER FRANCISON CARE FOR OUR COMMON HOME (24/5/2015)

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“the most amazing technical abilities, the most

astonishing economic growth, unless they are

accompanied by authentic social and moral progress,

will definitively turn against man”

Pope Paul VI, 1970

Address to FAO on the 25th Anniversary of its Institution (16 November 1970)

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The far-sighted amongst you are anticipating

broader global impacts on property, migration and

political stability, as well as food and water security.

… Past is not prologue … the catastrophic

norms of the future can be seen in the tail

risks of today.

Mark Carney, 2015

(Governor of the

Bank of England)

Carney M. Breaking the tragedy of the horizon – climate change and financial stability. http://wwwbankofenglandcouk/publications/Pages/speeches/2015/844aspx

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Photos show African migrants hidden behind car’s engine, seats during illegal border crossing into Spain

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Photos show African migrants hidden behind car’s engine, seats during illegal border crossing into Spain

Jos Lelieveld, director of the Max Planck Institute for Atmosheric Chemistry: “Climate change will significantly worsen the living conditions in the Middle East and in North Africa.”

“Prolonged heatwaves and desert dust storms can render some regions uninhabitable, which will surely contribute to the pressure to migrate”.

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“Tertiary”

“Primary”

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“Secondary”

Old location

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Burden of Disease (proportion)

Year widely accepted

now 2050?

PRIMARY (eg heat, injury, productivity)

SECONDARY (e.g. vector-borne diseases, air pollution, allergies)

TERTIARY: (a “systemic multiplier”) famine, conflict, large-

scale migration, economic collapse

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Solutions

a social vaccine

technology

academic leadership

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Toxicity

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Placebo

Vaccine spectrum

Towards a solution

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Panic, despair, or indifference

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“Polyanna”

“Social vaccine” spectrum

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Solar is now cheaper than coal, says India energy minister

http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/04/18/solar-is-now-cheaper-than-coal-says-india-energy-minister/

technology

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“The expense may be considerable, but the cost of doing nothing is incalculable”

Health in the Greenhouse

Editorial (Lancet, 1989)

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