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Glacier change modelling in the tropics

Georg Kaser 

INARCH  Kananaskis ‐ 24. Oktober 2015

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http://www.imaggeo.net/view/142

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ClimateMass & Energy

Masschange

Equilibrium Line Altitude ELA

Climate→ glacier

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… machines that turn weather into climate signals

… low pass filters, „but these filters come without a manual“B. Marzeion (Marzeion et al, TC 2012)

Glaciers are …

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SWSW LW

LW QS, QL

+-

GLACIER QG(20-30 levels)

+ / -

+-

+ / -

energy balance

SNOW

energy fluxes

sublimation, melt

mass fluxes

snowfall

©Mölg

Climate│Glacier: processes

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large scale drivers

micro scale processes

meso scale conditions

Kibo, SIF, AWS3 (5850 m asl), 2007

Glacier ‐ atmosphere

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Kibo

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Kibo, NIF AWS1, 2005

Glacier ‐ atmosphere

Modelled turbulent fluxes (bulk method) compared well to eddy covariance data. Modelled sublimation accounted for about 90% of observed ablation

26–29 July 2005

Cullen et al, AnnGlac (2007)

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GCM

downscaling

downscaling

ATMOSPHERE

Glacier ‐ Atmosphere

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Cloud mixing ratio with (left) WET and (right) DRY forcing

Mölg et al., QJRMS (2009)

Regional circulation

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Dynamical „downscaling“ 

Mölg und Kaser JGR (2011)

AWS forcingLAM forcing

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700hour of month

-40

-20

0

20

40

mas

s bu

dget

(kg

m2

) wet (April 2006)

dry (August 2005)

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Möl

g et

al.,

TC

(201

2)

Monsoon onset

Zhadang Glacier (central Tibet, 30° N)

Partitioning the contributors to MB

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+ Cordillera BlancaRwenzori +

+ Kilimanjaro

Mt. Kenya+

Irian Jaya +

hygric seasonality – circulation patterns (modes)

Glaciers as climate‐meters

ENSOIOZMENSO

ENSO

Asian Monsoon+ Alps

NAO

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Observes sea level rise 1993‐2010:  3.2 mm/year

Data from Table 13.1

IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch.13 (2013)

Thermal expansion:   38%

Glaciers: 28%

Greenl. Ice Sheet:  10%

Antarct. Ice Sheet:  10%

Land water stor.: 14%

Total : 100%

Obs. GMSLR:  110%                                

Distributed MB modeling

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Gurgiser et al. TC (2013)

SH11SH22

Glaciar Shallap, Cordillera Blanca

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Gur

gise

r et a

l.TC

2013

Glaciar ShallapDistributed MB modeling

Daily snow fall and disaperance

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Gurgiser et al. JoG (2013)

Glaciar ShallapPoint comparison

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Finsterwalder (1897)

Stream lineslayersacc. abl.

Back to the „Lab “: Hintereisferner

Blümcke, A. and H. Hess (1899)

1880s

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Mau

ssio

net

al.

TCD

(201

5)

Seasonal mass balance and ENSO

regression‐based downscaling model that links the local SEB/SMB fluxes to atmospheric reanalysis variables on a monthly basis