gil abu dhabi mega trends v1 ppt and workshop m
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abu dhabiTRANSCRIPT
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1Top 20 Global Mega Trends and Their Impact on Business, Cultures and
Society
Presented by Sarwant Singh
Partner
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2Agenda
Presentation of Top 10 Mega Trends
1. Urbanization: Mega Cities, Mega Regions, Mega Corridors, Smart Cities 2. E-Mobility3. Social Trends: Geo Socialization, Generation Y and Reverse Brain Drain4. SPACE JAM: Congested Satellite Orbits5. World War 3: Cyber Warfare6. RoboSlaves7. Virtual World: Fluid Interfaces and Haptic Technology8. Innovating to Zero ! : Zero Emission Technologies9. Emerging Transportation Corridors10. Health, Wellness and Well-Being
Overview of Next Top 10 Mega Trends
Key Strategic Conclusions
Workshop : How To Apply Mega Trends Within an Organisation to Develop Growth Strategies
Q&A Session
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3Urbanization
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4Three Main Trends in Urbanization: Development of Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega Corridors
MEGA CITY City With A Minimum
Population Of 5 Million EXAMPLE: Greater
London
MEGA REGIONS Cities Combining With
Suburbs To Form Regions. (Population
over 10 Million)EXAMPLE:
Johannesburg and Pretoria (forming Jo-
Toria)
MEGA CORRIDORS
The Corridors Connecting Two Major Cities or Mega RegionsEXAMPLE: Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou in China (Population
120 Million)
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51950s Urbanisation
2000s Suburbanisation
2015s Network City
2020s : Branded Cities
Megacity Trend City borders will expand out of suburbs to include daughter cities. The Core City will enclose multiple
downtowns. Multiple Transportation Models will be used and more than 50% will use public transportation Most offices moved to the first belt suburbs except non cost sensitive activities: city centres
becoming shopping areas (small scale deliveries) for expensive goods and living areas for double income, no kids households.
Urban sprawl, first highways and ring road
Creation of the historic centre and districts
Third suburban area and cities along the highways created, ring road overblown by the urban sprawl
Ring Road Motorway,
Living Areas growing outside the ring road as seen in London
By 2020, We Will See Development of Mega City Corridors and Networked, Integrated and Branded Cities
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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6Smart Cities Green Replaced by SMART Concepts
SGovernance
S City Planning
SEnergy
S Business
S ICT
S Mobility
S Citizen
S Buildings
Smart Diamond to define Smart city
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SInformation Technology
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7Cities built from scratch
Existing eco cities
Existing eco megacities
Treasure Island
Boulder
Arcosanti
Coyote SpringsDestiny
Babcock Ranch
Vancouver
Toronto
San Francisco
PortlandSeattle
Curitiba
Montreal
Bogota
St Davids
Clonburris
Gteborg
Hammarby Sjstad
London
Barcelona
Reykjavik Oslo
Freiburg
Stockholm
Paris
Copenhagen
Kochi
GIFT
Cape Town
Pune
Dongtan
Tianjin
Changsha
KhajurahoMeixi Lake
Waitakere, N.Z.
Singapore City
Songdo
Moreland, Australia
Amsterdam
Masdar
Legend
Over 40 Global Cities to be SMART Cities in 2020 - More than 50% of Smart cities of 2025 will be from Europe and North America. China and India to see over 50 New Sustainable Cities
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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8Case Study - Lavasa (India) Smart TownshipPrivate infrastructure companies in India building integrated township that offer smart living and working
Indias first and largest hill city to evolve over next 12 years.
This integrated township is built across 12,500 acres at a cost of Rs 1,400 billion
Dasve the first town will be ready by end 2010/11.
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9Smart Market Opportunity : Convergence of Technology Will Lead to Convergence of Competition
IT Players Automation/Building Control Players
Energy/InfrastructurePlayers
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
IP Networks Digital Technology Analysis Software Wireless Communication Technology Integration Network Security Etc.
T&D Technology Power Electronics Renewable Energy Integrated Distribution Management Substation Automation AMI-Enabled Metering Etc.
Building Automation Demand-Side Management Connectivity of devices Monitoring and Sensing Smart Grid Integration Etc.
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E-Mobility
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E-Mobility : Over 40 Million Electric 2 Wheelers and 4 Wheelers will be Sold Annually Around the Globe in 2020
XM 3000 Electric MopedSanyo Enacle The GEM Peapod The Smith Newton
Total 30 million 2 Wheelers (2020)
Total 10 Million 4 Wheelers (2020)
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Electric Vehicle Market Eco-System Provides Opportunity to Enter New Fields
Utilities Integrator(e.g. Better Place) OEMs
System/Battery ManufacturersGovernment
Charging Station
Manufacturers
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Electric Vehicles Will Usher New Mobility Business Model : Future Leasing Models To Sell 75% Of Vehicles; The Rest 25% Sold Traditionally
Business Model 1 Business Model 2 Business Model 3 Business Model 4
TYPE Energy Package Maintenance Package Part Subsidy Full Subsidy
COVER Partial battery lease + Electricity
Energy Package+ Insurance+ Maintenance
Maintenance Package+ Discount
Maintenance Package+ 100% Discount
ENERGY Monthly Bill Flat: Max 2000km/month Flat: 25,000km/year Flat: 30,000km/year
CONTRACT NA NA 4 years 7 years
SUBSIDY NA NA 50% car price Free car
MONTHLY LEASE
Up to 150 Up to 350 500- 800 ~ 900- 1500
Flexible Mileage Unlimited Miles Max number of miles Pay as you go
Flexible Contract The customer opts for the number of years and flexible mileage- customized lease
Other Possible Leasing modelsSource: Better Place, Frost & Sullivan
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Source: Frost & Sullivan
Charge Payment Program /
Subscription based services
Manufacturing & Sales
Load Management
Extended E-mobility solution
e.g. vehicle sharing
Energy Subscription
Packages
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Charging Stations Batteries E-Mobility Vehicles Electricity
Telematics & other value
added services
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Example of Products/Services Portfolio That Can be Offered by anIntegrator in the E-Mobility Market
Installation & Maintenance
Revenues from value added
services
Premium revenues via Renewable Energy Vs Non
Renewable Energy
Premium revenues via Peak Power Vs Off Peak Charging
Level 1 Vs Level 2 Vs Level 3 Charging
Battery Leasing Model
Refurbishing
Recycling
Battery 2nd life
Battery Swapping
Extend to other E-mobility solutions
Battery Integration
Offering After-Sales services
Market green solutions such as Solar panels to E-Mobility client base
investment in renewable energy
such as wind farms and gain carbon
credits
Recycling and Refurbishing
Premium revenues via Peak Power Vs Off Peak Charging
Premium revenues via Renewable Energy Vs Non
Renewable Energy
Subscription based Energy
service Scheme
Data Aggregator ( working with other
partners)
Battery management
services
Advanced booking of charging stations
V2V and V2G Communication
Added value service (POIs,
Diagnostics, etc)
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Social Trends
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Six Degrees Apart: Geo Socialization in 2020
Used For:Meet Ups, Restaurant and Nightclub Reviews, Concert Events
Used For:Networking in Business Conferences: Updates on Potential Contacts
Used For:Local Real Estate News, Geo Socializing with Friends
Used For:Digital Marketing: Receiving Updates on Promotion and Offers
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Reverse Brain Drain and Huge Shortage of CXO Positions In BRIC Nations Will Make Us Look For Opportunities Overseas
Russia
India
S. Africa
Brazil
UAE
United States
CanadaUnited
Kingdom
Australia
Malaysia
Japan
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Steady flow of foreign professionals and migrants returning back home to fill vacancies for CXO positions
Salary on par with developed countries (in terms of purchasing power) and even more benefits 2 million BPO- KPO jobs for foreign nationals from China, Poland, Philippines,
High Low Degree of NRIs and Overseas Chinese returning to Homeland (Reverse Brain Drain)
High LowDegree of Indians and Chinese living
abroad
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1.69
2.56
2.1
1.2
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United NationsNote: Gen Y : Population between 15 34 Years today
2010 2020World Population: Breakdown by Region (Global), 2020
6.83 Billion
7.55 BillionAround 37% of Gen Y Population Will Live in India and China Alone
Around 37% of Gen Y Population Will Live in India and China Alone
World Population in 2020 : 2.56 Billion Population in Age Group 15 to 34 (currently Gen Y) Important Customer of the Future
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Generation Y: Goods and Services Catered to Values, Beliefs, Interest and Lifestyle
Personalization and
Individualization
Techno Savvy and Connected
24 X 7
Civic and Environmentally
Friendly
Demanding and Impatient Fast and the Furious
Personalized Search and News
Social Networking Profiles
Personalized Products
Gaming Gizmos
Smart Phones
Facebook-on-the Move
Microblogs
Eco- Transport
Bag-For-Life (Paper Bags Instead of Plastic)
Paperless Banking
Instant Text Messaging
Instant Chat
Speed Oriented Gaming (Car Racing)
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Technology
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New Satellites Launched By 2020: Over 900 Satellites to Be Launched Globally This Decade Creating Multiple Innovative Applications
GNSS Enabled Applications:
Navigation (Civil, Military)Broadband Internet and
Wireless Network
GNSS based medical monitoring and drug delivery
systemAutomated guidance of
machines, real-time structure monitoring, logistics and site
management
GNSS Enabled Applications:
Navigation (Civil, Military)Broadband Internet and
Wireless Network
GNSS based medical monitoring and drug delivery
systemAutomated guidance of
machines, real-time structure monitoring, logistics and site
management
By 2020, there will be approximately927 Satellites (Communication 405; Earth Observation 151; Navigation 85; Reconnaissance 212 and R&D
75)
By 2020, there will be approximately927 Satellites (Communication 405; Earth Observation 151; Navigation 85; Reconnaissance 212 and R&D
75)
Automobile Navigation and Intelligent Traffic Control System Applications
Automobile Navigation and Intelligent Traffic Control System Applications
Galileo - intended to provide more precise
measurements than GPS or GLONASS
China developing Beidou
Galileo - intended to provide more precise
measurements than GPS or GLONASS
China developing Beidou
Commercial market will be driven by
broadcast; Mobile Satellite Services
(MSS); voice and data applications, bundling
IPTV
Commercial market will be driven by
broadcast; Mobile Satellite Services
(MSS); voice and data applications, bundling
IPTV
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World War 3 : With Advancement in Technology, Information Warfare to be the Next Domain of Conflict
SpacePhotographic Satellites, GPS, Communications, Ballistic Missile Defence, Signals, AstronautsAirISR Platforms, Combat Aircraft, Transport, Helicopters, Maritime Surveillance, Communications, AirmenNavalCombat Platforms, Communications, ISR, Transport, Sailors
LandCombat Vehicles, Transport, Communications, Soldiers
Information EnvironmentPhysical, Cognitive, Informational Dimensions
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Future RoboSlave: Pervasive Robotic Technology in 2020 That Will Act as a Slave in Everyday Life
Robots To Help With Strategic Planning and
Business
Robots for Companionship
Robots as Pets Robots for Household
Chores
Robots to Wait on Hand and
Foot
Robots as Waiters
Robots as Nannies
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Artificial Intelligence and Robotics: Future Machine Technology With Multiple Applications
Robotic Industrial Applications in 2020
Welding
Material Handling
Drilling Robots in Space Medical Robots Performing Low Invasive Surgery
Transportation Robots Military RobotsPackaging
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Virtual World 2020: 3D Simulated Environment for Interaction andExperience Impacting Personal Mobility
Virtual Shopping Allowing Customers to Try Virtual Shopping Allowing Customers to Try Products without leaving their homesProducts without leaving their homes
Virtual Classes and Virtual Classes and Laboratories and Daily 3D Laboratories and Daily 3D
Field Trips Field Trips to Different Countries and to Different Countries and
PlanetsPlanets
Virtual Surgeries Virtual Surgeries and Medical Training and Medical Training Virtual Business ConferencesVirtual Business Conferences
Social Networking: 3D Avatars Social Networking: 3D Avatars Enabling People to Lead Enabling People to Lead
Multiple LivesMultiple Lives
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Innovating to Zero!
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Innovating To ZERO: Snapshot of a Zero Concept World in 2020Emerging Technologies Innovating to Zero Breaches of Security, Zero Accidents, Zero Fatalities and Zero Emissions in 2020
Zero Emissions from Cars
Zero Accidents
Zero Breaches of Security
Zero Crime Rates
Zero Waste/ Emissions from Factories
Complete Recyclability from Households (Cradle to Cradle Concept)
Zero Defects
Zero Debts
M65B-18
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Possible Zero Emission Technologies in Power Generation -Innovating Toward Reducing CO2 Emissions in 2020
Solar PV Cells
Wind Energy
Travelling Wave Reactor (TWR) Third Generation Bio Fuels (Algae and Exotic Bio Fuels)
Geothermal Energy
Ocean Energy
To Account for 1,900,000 MW of
electricity production in 2020
Capacity of Solar Power to Increase from 21,540 MW in 2020 to 630,000
MW in 2040
Wide deployment of TWRs could enable projected global stockpiles of depleted uranium to sustain 80% of the worlds population at U.S. per capita energy usages for over a
millennium
Share of Geothermal Electricity in total
electricity produced in 2020 is 1.5%
INNOVATING
TO
ZERO!
By 2022, algae biofuels will be the largest biofuel category overall, accounting for 40 billion of the
estimated 109 billion gallons of biofuels produced.
To supply approximately 10 percent of the world's
electricity needs by 2020
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Infrastructure Development
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30DRAFT VERSION
MoscowNizhny
Novgorod
St. Petersburg
YekaterinburgNovosibirsk Krasnoyarsk
IrkutskKhabarovsk
Vladivostok
Integration of the Trans Siberian Rail into Eurasian Rail Network Will Result in Industrial and Business Hubs Along the Railroad
Yekaterinburg
Severka
Development of Trans-Siberian railroad will have significant socio economic and business impact to Russia
Astrakhan
Kiev
Kaliningrad
Minsk
Helsinki
Berezoviy
VerhnyaPyshma
KoltsovoShyrokayaRechka
ITC North South
Trans-Siberian Railway
Pan European N 2
Pan European N 9
Baikal-Amur Mainline
(Warsaw, Berlin)
(Bucharest, Aleksandrupolis)
Sredneuralsk
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High Speed Rail to Come to US : Overview of Future High Speed Rail Projects in US
California to connect Bay Area with LA through an ambitious $42bn program with construction starting in 2 years
Impact to Personal Mobility
1.Air travel will diminish rapidly between the high speed rail link cities
2.Train operators could start offering integrated transport e.g. Car sharing
3.Will take congestion off highways, people will drive less long distance
4.Attractive cities for car sharing
5.Small city car sales will grow in these cities
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Healthcare
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In almost all countries worldwide, per capita healthcare spending is rising faster than per capita income.
No country can spend an ever-rising share of its output on health care, indefinitely. Spending growth must
eventually fall in line with growth in per capita income.
If Current Trends Hold, By 2050 Health Care Spending Will Almost Double Claiming 20% 30% Of GDP For Some Economies
$2,884
$3,647
$2,493 $2,665 $2,451$2,693
$2,337 $2,527$2,110
$2,614
$1,927
$2,469 $2,371$1,938 $1,927 $1,829
$1,609
$3,517
$717
$1,684$854
$914$680
$989 $760
$1,018$494
$1,165$449
$352
$593 $431 $514$646
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
Private Per Capita Spending (2007) Public Per Capita Spending (2007)
Spending as % of GDP (2007) Estimated Spending as % of GDP in 2050
Unsustainable Unsustainable
Levels!!!Levels!!!
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Health Economics Dictate a Shift in Spending Away From Treating and Towards Predicting, Diagnosing and Monitoring
Healthcare Spending by Type of Activity
Predict, 5% Predict, 9%
Predict, 22%Diagnose, 15%
Diagnose, 19%
Diagnose, 27%
Treat, 70%Treat, 60%
Treat, 35%
Monitor, 10% Monitor, 12% Monitor, 16%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 2012 2025
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Overview of Next Top 10 Trends
Women Empowerment and Women CEOsPower to the Middle Class Reverse Brain Drain and CXO Positions in Developing Economies
Women Empowerment and Women CEOsPower to the Middle Class Reverse Brain Drain and CXO Positions in Developing Economies
Beyond BRIC: The Next Game ChangersNew Shores: Emerging Outsourcing HotspotsFuture Global 500 Companies by RegionNew Trade Zones
Beyond BRIC: The Next Game ChangersNew Shores: Emerging Outsourcing HotspotsFuture Global 500 Companies by RegionNew Trade Zones
SMART Clouds: The Next in CloudComputingFuture of Consumer ElectronicsWireless IntelligenceFuture Broadband ApplicationsInnovative Technologies of the Future:
SMART Clouds: The Next in CloudComputingFuture of Consumer ElectronicsWireless IntelligenceFuture Broadband ApplicationsInnovative Technologies of the Future:
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Global Power Generation TrendsGlobal Power Generation Trends
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Future Investment in Infrastructure : Power, Water and Transport
Future Investment in Infrastructure : Power, Water and Transport
New Business Models New Business Models
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Factory of the Future: SMART and GREENFactory of the Future: SMART and GREEN
From Fat to Fit: Health, Wellness and Well BeingFrom Fat to Fit: Health, Wellness and Well Being
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Healthcare, Chemicals, EnergyEnvironment, AutomotiveAerospace and DefenceICT, Building TechnologiesMeasurement and InstrumentationElectronics and Security
Healthcare, Chemicals, EnergyEnvironment, AutomotiveAerospace and DefenceICT, Building TechnologiesMeasurement and InstrumentationElectronics and Security
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Key Strategic Conclusions
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Key Strategic Conclusions
1. Mega trends are connected and inter-wined which suggests synergeticopportunities between them
2. It is important to understand the eco-system of the mega-trend and the elements of the value chain which have most profitability
3. All these trends are global and have global ramifications thereby offering scalable opportunities
4. These forces are changing rapidly and bringing new competencies into play at half the life-cycle speed of the past decade
5. Organisations need Mega Trend champions and teams within their organisation structure to best exploit the opportunities
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Workshop
From Macro to Micro
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Workshop Objectives and Agenda
AWorkshop Aims:
To present and familiarize audience with F&S Mega Trends
To evaluate growth opportunities by identifying impact on your industry, region, market, product, technology, and personal life
WORKSHOP AGENDA (2 Hours 30 Minutes)
30 Mins: Introduction and Summary of Mega Trends
2 Hours: Workshop30 Mins: Brainstorming and Completion of
Templates(Exercise 1 -2)30 Mins: Discussion of Opportunities (Exercise
3)30 Mins: Presentation by 2 to 3 Selected
Teams15 Mins: Wrap up
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From Macro to Micro: How To Take Mega Trends from Information to Analysing New Opportunities
Sub TrendA Sub Layer of Trends that Has
Wide Ranging Impact
Mega TrendSelected Trends That Impact Your Business
And Markets
Analysis of Opportunities
and Unmet Needs
Impact on Future Product/
Technology
Impact to Your Industry
Visualizing The Roadmap Of These Critical Forces Through Scenario Building and Macro
Economic Forecasts
Example: Urbanization, Satellites
Example: Three concepts of urbanization will emerge:
megacities, mega regions and mega corridors. Smart Cities. Civilian satellites means high
speed broadband, wireless and 4G and free wi-fi in public
places/cities
Example: New Product Opportunity - New Mega City
Cars, Car sharing,New Technology Opportunities
Connected car , e.g. Internet Radio
Example: Mega City electric cars with small
turning radius, autonomous parking in
busy cities, Facebook on wheels, seamless
switching from home to car
Example: People in future will need personal mobility not necessarily cars to commute to
work. This will lead to need for integrated mobility combining all forms of transport
including cars
Macro Micro
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Workshop Steps
S1
S3
S2
S4
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Workshop Exercises
Exercise 1 Exercise 2 Exercise 3 Exercise 4 (Home Work)
Each Team will Complete the Following Exercises
Group Activities Followed By Presentation of Selected 2 3 Teams
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Sample Exercise Templates to be Completed
Ex. 1 Ex. 2 Ex. 3(Identify Top 10 Mega Trends)
Impact on BU (Automotive) Impact on Region Growth Opportunities : Product & Technology
1. Mega Cities Polarization of Passenger Cars Sizes Creation of Demand for Small cars and
City Electric Cars Mega Cities Will Give Rise to Multi-Modal
Mobility creating a market for mobility integrators
Integrated Mobility and On-Demand Solutions will rise
Market for Sustainable Car-Sharing will Evolve
BRIC Countries to become major sales powerhouse for Vehicles
Cities from Developing Economies will witness growth in use of private vehicles
Mega Cities in Developed Economies will witness reduction of private vehicle
Moving toward Greener Cities will lead to adoption of more Eco-Technologies (EV)
Down Sizing of Engines, Vehicle Weight Reduction,
New technologies - Turbo Chargers, Start-Stop Systems, Stop and go systems in cities, Low turning radius cars, Internet radio in cars
2. High Speed Rail Transit Oriented Development Air travel will diminish rapidly between the
high speed rail link cities Train operators could start offering
integrated transport e.g. Car sharing Will take congestion off highways, people
will drive less long distance Attractive cities for car sharing Small city car sales will grow in these
cities
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Group Name : Industry :
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Discussions
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For Questions and More Information
Sarwant SinghPartner Practice Director, Automotive and TransportationDirect: + 44 207 915 7843Mobile: +44 7961 771545Email : [email protected]