getting the best out of wheat wheat markets · ukraine – 24.5mmt ... exports/imports 158 137 166...

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  • GETTING THE BEST OUT OF WHEAT

    Wheat Markets Ensuring consistent quality in a volatile world.

    Julius Deane

  • What drivers affect wheat markets?

    • Supply & Demand

    • Quality

    • Foreign Exchange

    • Logistics

    • Politics

  • UK Wheat

  • Milling Premiums

  • Wheat Production 2015 & 2016

    Canada –

    30.5MMT

    USA -

    63MMT

    Black Sea –

    131MMT

    Russia - 71MMT

    Ukraine - 26MMT

    Kazakhstan -

    14.5MMT

    Australia -

    30MMT

    Argentina –

    14.5MMT

    EU-27 -

    145MMT

    Canada –

    29MMT

    USA -

    55MMT

    Black Sea –

    112MMT

    Russia - 59MMT

    Ukraine –

    24.5MMT

    Kazakhstan -

    13MMT

    Australia –

    24MMT

    Argentina –

    14MMT

    EU-27 -

    156MMT

    2015 2016

  • Wheat Quality 2016

    Adverse weather is affecting

    quality, lower proteins

    Relatively good, lower

    specific weights

    Exceptional yields but mixed protein

    and specific weights, case of quantity

    over quality

    Bumper crop forecast but

    excessive rain is affecting

    quality

    Argentina – 14MMT

    Massive variation across

    Europe, losses in France and

    Germany made up in Eastern

    Europe

  • UK Quality – National picture

  • UK Quality – our Mill data

    Wheat Type 2015 2016 2015 2016

    Protein Specific Weight

    Group 1 13% 13.2 13.5 78.2 76.2

    Group 1/2 12% 12.3 12.6 77.6 76.7

    Soft Biscuit 11.2 11.3 74.8 74.0

    Hard Biscuit 11.6 11.6 77.2 74.6

    Canadian 15.6 16.2 81.1 80.1

    German E 13.8 14.3 80.0 79.0

    French 11.1 11.4 78.9 77.5

  • UK Quality cont.

  • Nabim Variety Working Party

  • Zero Waste from a Flour Mill…

  • Canadian Quality

    • Exports significant tonnage of high protein milling wheat annually

    • Produces around 27MMT, considerable variation (20MMT – 38MMT) in recent years

    • Pre-harvest reports suggested yield and quality would be good

    • Reality - weather has slowed harvest and considerably damaged quality

  • Foreign Exchange – over the last 12 months

  • FX / wheat price

  • LIFFE in € - last 12 months

  • Long Term FX

    £ vs. €since 1999 £ vs. $since 1992

  • GETTING THE BEST OUT OF WHEAT

  • Brexit implications on wheat & flour

    • Weak currency – prices up for wheat & energy

    • Export restrictions on wheat and flour?

    • Ireland/France/Holland

    • Import duties on wheat & flour?

    • Staff

  • UK Supply and Demand

  • World S&D over last 5 years and forecast

    Per MMT 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17

    Opening Stocks 199 197 177 194 216 241

    Production 697 658 715 728 735 745

    Supply Total 896 855 892 922 951 986

    Exports/Imports 158 137 166 164 172 173

    Food & Seed 550 542 572 574 574 589

    Feed & Residual 146 137 172 132 136 148

    Use Total 697 679 699 706 710 737

    Ending Stocks 199 176 194 216 241 249

  • Short term LIFFE

    3 Month LIFFE

  • Long term LIFFE

    3 Year LIFFE

  • Long term LIFFE

    15 Year LIFFE

  • Cautions ahead

    •EU Maize crop not all in yet

    •Dry start to planting season across EU (England Sept 82% LTA)

    •Have “plenty” of wheat quantity, but restrictions on quality this season

    •Oil market well off bottom

    •Currency?

    •Markets………