germany analysis
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8/14/2019 Germany Analysis
1/26
LDWZTLGZ
Zmkw plpht lknw lz wzxj{kc` @htnlc dxwkchww# Zmh ptbahgz kcgexjhj lee whgbcjlt{ wbxtghw bi
kcibtnlzkbc -kczhtchz% Pbtej Dlcf% BHGJ hdwkzhw+# Zmh jlzl gbeehgzkbc nhzmbj lw thekldeh bc
Kczhtchz lcj Zbxtkwz Dbbfw lcj plnpmehzw# @htnlc{ kw lc lgzkyh nhndht bi HX lcj HGD kw
ebglzhj lz Itlcfixtz# Kz ekhw kc zmh hxtb ztljkc` qbch lcj hcab{w ghtzlkc dhchikzw ekfh bzmht hxtb
qbch gbxcztkhw# NCH ekfh DNP% Wkhnhcw L@ lcj Ybefwl`hc lth eh`hcjlt{ clnhw lee byht zmh
btej# @htnlc{ kw lc lzztlgzkyh kcyhwznhcz th`kbc lcj NLJH KC @HTNLC[ kw l ztljh
nltf# Zmh ptbahgz"ikcle thpbtz hcgbnplwwhj bzmht kwwxhw ekfh @htnlc gxezxth% dxwkchww ylexhw
lcj hgbcbnkgw% zmlz hiihgz @htnlc ztljh bt dxwkchww#
GML_ZHT < KCZTBJXGZKBC
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8/14/2019 Germany Analysis
2/26
Zmh biikgkle clnh kw Dxcjhwthpxdekf Jhxzwgmelcj -Ihjhtle Thpxdekg bi @htnlc{+# Kz kw dlwhj
bc zmh @txcj`hwhzq -Dlwkg El+ bi
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8/14/2019 Germany Analysis
3/26
Pxhtzzhndht % Dl{htc -Dlyltkl+% Dhtekc%
Dtlcjhcdxt % Dthnhc% Mlndxt`% Mhwwhc%
Nhgfehcdxt`.Ybtpbnnhtc -Nhgfehcdxt`.
Phwzhtc _bnhtlckl+% Ckhjhtwlgmwhc -Ebht
Wl}bc{+% Cbtjtmhkc.Phwzilehc -Cbtzm Tmkch.
Phwzpmlekl+% Tmhkcelcj._ileq -Tmkchelcj.
_lelzkclzh+% Wlltelcj% Wlgmwhc -Wl}bc{+%
Wlgmwhc.Lcmlez -Wl}bc{.Lcmlez+% Wgmehwk`.
Mbewzhkc% Zmxhtkc`hc -Zmxtkc`kl+6 cbzh .
Dl{htc% Wlgmwhc% lcj Zmxhtkc`hc thiht zb
zmhnwheyhw lw ithh wzlzhw -Ithkwzllzhc% wkc`xelt
. Ithkwzllz+
_bpxelzkbc =4%:??%;;9
_bpxelzkbc @tbzm Tlzh .?#?77(
L`h Wztxgzxth ?.
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8/14/2019 Germany Analysis
4/26
8 {hltw 4??7 4??: 4??8 4??9 4??0
@J_
-dkeekbcw+
4
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8/14/2019 Germany Analysis
5/26
xchnpeb{nhcz ihee d{
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8/14/2019 Germany Analysis
6/26
GEKNLZH
@htnlc{ kw ebglzhj kc zmh nbjhtlzh gbbe hwz kcj qbch dhzhhc zmh Lzelczkg Bghlc lcj zmh
gbczkchczle geknlzh kc zmh hlwz# Kc kczhtw% zmh lyhtl`h zhnphtlzxth kw
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8/14/2019 Germany Analysis
7/26
HCYKTBCNHCZ
Hnkwwkbcw itbn gble.dxtckc` xzkekzkhw lcj kcjxwztkhw gbcztkdxzh zb lkt pbeexzkbc% lgkj tlkc%
thwxezkc` itbn wxeixt jkb}kjh hnkwwkbcw% kw jlnl`kc` ibthwzw# _beexzkbc kc zmh Dlezkg Whl thwxezw
itbn tl whl`h lcj kcjxwztkle hiiexhczw itbn tkyhtw kc Hlwz @htnlc{# Zmh mlqltjbxw lwzh
jkwpbwle6 zmh `byhtcnhcz mlw hwzldekwmhj l nhgmlckwn ibt hcjkc` zmh xwh bi cxgehlt pbht byht
zmh ch}z
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8/14/2019 Germany Analysis
8/26
gbxczhtpltzw# @htnlc{w h}pbtz whgzbt kw hee.fcbc ibt kzw phtibtnlcgh% dxz jbhw cbz gbcwzkzxzh
l mx`h ptbpbtzkbc bi @J_% lcj kzm mk`m.zhgm h}pbtzw bi bce{ ibxt phtghcz bi @J_% @htnlc{
gbxej jb hyhc nbth zb gbnnhtgklekqh kccbylzkbc lcj zlfh ljylczl`h bi kzw btfibtghw wxphtkbt
hjxglzkbc#
JH_HCJHCG[ LYBKJLCGH
Gbnnbjkz{ h}pbtzw ibtn cb nbth zmlc bch phtghcz bi @J_% kcjkglzkc` cb ptbdehnw kc zmkw lthl#
ITHHJBN LCJ B__BTZXCKKZKHW
Nbwz @htnlcw thpbtz zmlz zmh{ h}phtkhcgh l wk`ckikglcz jh`thh bi gbcztbe byht lcj ithhjbn bi
gmbkgh kc zmhkt bc ekyhw# Zmkw glc dh lzztkdxzhj zb h}gheehcz pbekzkgle ithhjbnw% lcj kjhe{
jkwztkdxzhj bppbtzxckz{# Hyhc pthykbxwe{ jkwljylczl`hj `tbxpw glc bggxp{ pbwkzkbcw bi mk`m
ptbnkchcgh kc gkyke wbgkhz{ lcj pbekzkgw1 @htnlc{w gxtthcz mhlj bi wzlzh kw l bnlc% Lc`helNhtfhe% lcj l ixee zmktz{.zb phtghcz bi zmh gbxczt{w plteklnhczltklcw lth bnhc# Mbhyht%
@htnlc btfhtw jb gmbbwh zb btf thelzkyhe{ ebc` mbxtw d{ Hxtbphlc wzlcjltjw% btfkc` l ixee
ibtz{.mbxt hhf% lcj zmkw thwztkgzhj ehkwxth zknh lpphltw zb ebht ekih wlzkwilgzkbc wbnhmlz#
WBXTGHW BI NKWHT[
Zmh wzthc`zm bi @htnlc{w hgbcbn{ ztlcwelzhw kczb l cbzlde{ mk`m ehyhe bi l`hw% kzm zmh
gbxczt{w @J_ hwzknlzhj zb lnbxcz zb *7?%:?? pht glpkzl# Zmkw bdwgxthw zmh xchyhcchww bi
@htnlc{w hgbcbnkg `tbzm% mbhyht% lcj zmh gbcwzlcz jkiikgxez{ kzm kczh`tlzkc` ibtnht Hlwz@htnlc{ xchnpeb{nhcz kw lz l wzxddbtce{ mk`m zheyh phtghcz% mkgm gthlzhw l wxdwzlczkle
nkwhtldeh nkcbtkz{# Mbhyht% hyhc zmh xchnpeb{hj hcab{ `bbj lgghww zb mhlezmglth% lcj ehyhew
bi ekih h}phgzlcg{% ljaxwzhj ibt zmh pthwhcgh bi jhdkekzlzkc` jkwhlwh% lth ilkte{ mk`m hyhc d{
Hxtbphlc wzlcjltjw#
WBGKLE WX__BTZ CHZPBTFW
@htnlc{ pbwwhwwhw bch bi zmh nbwz whgxelt wbgkhzkhw kc zmh _tbwphtkz{ Kcjh}% kzm bce{ zmktz{.
hk`mz phtghcz bi zmh pbpxelzkbc thpbtzkc` zmlz zmhkt ilkzm kw yht{ knpbtzlcz kc zmhkt ekyhw#Gbnnxckz{ chzbtfw% mbhyht% lth wbnhmlz wztbc` kc @htnlc{1 zmktz{.hk`mz phtghcz bi zmh
pbpxelzkbc thpbtz zmlz zmh{ ztxwz bzmht phbpeh kc zmhkt gbxczt{ gbnpehzhe{% wx``hwzkc` zmlz mk`m
ehyhew bi wbgkle glpkzle lth gthlzhj d{ liikckz{ `tbxpw% ehkwxth lgzkykzkhw% gexdw lcj wbgkhzkhw
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8/14/2019 Germany Analysis
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