german energy transition workshop-raouf al dabbas
TRANSCRIPT
The German Energy Transition
How Does It Work and What Does It Mean for Jordan?
25 September 2012
Days Inn Hotel Amman
Status Quo and Potential
Raouf Dabbas
Electrical Energy Consumption
Water
Pumping
15%Street lighting
2%
Industrial
27%Commercial
17%
Household
39%
2008
Industrial
Street lighting
Transport
Houshold
Commercial
Water pumping
`30%
20%30%
20%20%
Energy saving per sector:
66%
1%
32%
1%
Oil & Oil Products Renewable Energy
Natural Gas Imported Electricity
Primary Energy
0100020003000400050006000700080009000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Domestic Commercial IndustrialService Water pumping Street lighting
Sectorial Electricity Consumption Forecast (GWh)
12079
16773
13252
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
years
Pri
ma
ry E
ne
rgy
Fo
rec
as
t (1
00
0 t
oe
)
Total Primary Energy
Primary Energy with Energy Efficiency measures
Primary Energy with Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy
Hypothetical Energy Use
Primary Energy Demand Forecast & the Contribution of EE and RE in Energy Mix
Where do we go from here?
Transport Industry Household Commercial Waterpumping
Streetlighting
1,037
829
642
450
593
474
391
313
86 60 14 10
Savings of 20 - 30% of final energy consumption per sector represents a reduction in
annual energy cost of Jordan of about 620 million JOD*ca. -200
Co
st o
f en
ergy
co
nsu
med
20
08
in m
illio
n J
OD
Cost of energy consumed inmillion JOD 2008
Cost of energy consumed in millionJOD incl. energy-efficiency measuresto save x% of 2008 consumptionca. -190
ca. -120
ca. -80
ca. -25 ca. -5
-x m.JOD
Cost savings in million JOD dueto sector-specific (NERC)energy savings**
* Internal estimations (Ministry of Environment/ CIM)** Calculated by applying the sectors’ share in final energy consumption to the total cost of consumed energy (2008=2,763 Million JOD; MEMR-Facts & Figures)
-20%energy savings
-30%energy savings
-20%energy savings
-20%energy savings
-30%energy savings
Direct Solar Irradiance in EUMENA in kWh/m²/y
1 km² is enough to desalinate 165,000 m³/day.50 km x 50 km are needed to avoid the MENA water deficit in 2050.
Solar irradiance 2400 kWh/m²/year x 10 % CSP efficiency / 4 kWh/m³ RO power consumption / 365 days/year = 0.165 m³/m²/day
powerwaterDesert area required for:
Annual average windspeed :
The Green Economy Sectors in Jordan
A system of economic activities related to the production, distribution and consumption of goods and services that result in improved human well-being over the long term, while not exposing future generations to environmental risks and ecological scarcities.
Agriculture Building Cities
Energy Finance Forest
Manufacturing
Tourism Transport Waste Water Modeling
Enabling Conditions
Policy recommended incentives
Thank you