gerald cecil cecil@physics.unc

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21 st century energy options: assumptions & complications. Gerald Cecil Overcoming “spin”. 2 MW. 600 W. The world is changing I feel it in the earth, I feel it in the water, I smell it in the air. Global per capita power consumption peaked ~1970, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


Conventional oil is peaking, unconventional is much slower

Gerald Cecilcecil@physics.unc.edu21st century energy options:assumptions & complications1

2 MW

Overcoming spin600 W

The world is changing

I feel it in the earth,I feel it in the water,I smell it in the air.

Global per capita power consumption peaked ~1970,population has doubled since

80% consume less than 10 kWh ($1) daily4

any new user will displace someone

Our economic development paradigm send us your resources to develop is a LIE

Countries cannot develop using existing fuelsNew fuels need costly infrastructure, can be weaponized (Irans nuclear power)

Pyramid of Supply (energy), NOT Flow (power)


US energy flow 2005


DOE / QTR 9/11

Rapid electrification of light-vehicle fleet

US Travel: In 2008 Drove 5.5 trillion passenger-miles (22% nearest *)176 billion gallons (7 trillion kWh)

C-neutral replacement for oil by 2035Biomass & biodiesel small fractionElectrification some combination of< 180 million 3 kWe solar tracker modules< 100,000 wind turbines, each 20 stories high (intermittent)< 150 new 1.2 GWe nuclear (+104 now) / CSS-coal plants (400,000 cars/night for each plant) (Assume EV is 4x ICE efficiency, 1/3 now available for nightly charge)17To fill gap in US liquid fuel supplyBiofuels 21% annual growth to 1 Gb/yr by 2020+ 5 new nukes& plug-in hybrids

18Addressing liquid fuel crisis is HugeWW II-scale energy/services industry mobilization to build alternativesCoal-to-liquids for cars, shale gas for electricityBoost electrification for heating & transportBetter batteries (range) + ultracapacitors (accel.)Better (hotter, thorium-fueled, passive safety) nuclear reactors for electricity & eventually H fuel cellsModest contribution but grand-scale deployment of wind turbines (industrial landscape), biofuelsContinued, long-term research on solar cells & fusion

19Run your transition @

$4.5 trillion out of US20

Prospects for Energy Equitywww.moller.comWHO/P.Virot

21What tocut?

Converge toone person : one shareof global CO2 emissionby target date.

Contract to X ppm for50:50 chance that T change is 2 oC.

Clear Process!USAThank you!22