gerald cecil cecil@physics.unc

Download Gerald Cecil cecil@physics.unc

Post on 22-Feb-2016

78 views

Category:

Documents

0 download

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

21 st century energy options: assumptions & complications. Gerald Cecil cecil@physics.unc.edu. Overcoming “spin”. 2 MW. 600 W. The world is changing I feel it in the earth, I feel it in the water, I smell it in the air. Global per capita power consumption peaked ~1970, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

Conventional oil is peaking, unconventional is much slower

Gerald Cecilcecil@physics.unc.edu21st century energy options:assumptions & complications1

2 MW

Overcoming spin600 W

The world is changing

I feel it in the earth,I feel it in the water,I smell it in the air.

Global per capita power consumption peaked ~1970,population has doubled since

80% consume less than 10 kWh ($1) daily4

any new user will displace someone

Our economic development paradigm send us your resources to develop is a LIE

Countries cannot develop using existing fuelsNew fuels need costly infrastructure, can be weaponized (Irans nuclear power)

Pyramid of Supply (energy), NOT Flow (power)

13

US energy flow 2005

202514

DOE / QTR 9/11

Rapid electrification of light-vehicle fleet

US Travel: In 2008 Drove 5.5 trillion passenger-miles (22% nearest *)176 billion gallons (7 trillion kWh)

C-neutral replacement for oil by 2035Biomass & biodiesel small fractionElectrification some combination of< 180 million 3 kWe solar tracker modules< 100,000 wind turbines, each 20 stories high (intermittent)< 150 new 1.2 GWe nuclear (+104 now) / CSS-coal plants (400,000 cars/night for each plant) (Assume EV is 4x ICE efficiency, 1/3 now available for nightly charge)17To fill gap in US liquid fuel supplyBiofuels 21% annual growth to 1 Gb/yr by 2020+ 5 new nukes& plug-in hybrids

18Addressing liquid fuel crisis is HugeWW II-scale energy/services industry mobilization to build alternativesCoal-to-liquids for cars, shale gas for electricityBoost electrification for heating & transportBetter batteries (range) + ultracapacitors (accel.)Better (hotter, thorium-fueled, passive safety) nuclear reactors for electricity & eventually H fuel cellsModest contribution but grand-scale deployment of wind turbines (industrial landscape), biofuelsContinued, long-term research on solar cells & fusion

19Run your transition @ powerdown.us

$4.5 trillion out of US20

Prospects for Energy Equitywww.moller.comWHO/P.Virot

21What tocut?

Converge toone person : one shareof global CO2 emissionby target date.

Contract to X ppm for50:50 chance that T change is 2 oC.

Clear Process!USAThank you!22