george w. bush (43). the 2000 race al gore (d)ralph nader (g)
TRANSCRIPT
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George W. Bush (43)
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The 2000 Race
Al Gore (D) Ralph Nader (G)
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Florida 2000
• 537 votes
• Legal Documents
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The Questions
• Is the country polarized?
• Are there red and blue states?
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Red States 2016 (180 EV)
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Blue States 2016 (215 EV)
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Swing States (143 EV)
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The Country by County
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Explaining Polarization
If the US electorate is really polarized…1. Party Changes2. Urban vs. Rural, plus College Towns3. Regional
a) Solid South
4. Culture War: “Guns, God and Gays”5.Result of “winner-take-all” system6.Gerrymandering
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1. Party Changes
• Evolution of Parties since 1960s
• Homogenization of the parties
Republican Party Conservatives and Moderates
Democratic PartyConservatives and Liberals
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2. Urban vs. Rural, plus College TownsPopulation Density Matters
Red State by County: Alabama
Blue State by County: Illinois
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Purple States by County
Virginia Pennsylvania
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3. Regional: The South Switches
1952 1964
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4. Culture War: “Guns, God and Gays”
Which one of these looks like freedom?
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5. Result of “winner-take-all” system
Florida 2000: Red State?
PresidentialCandidate
Vice PresidentialCandidate
PoliticalParty
Popular Vote Electoral Vote
George W. Bush Richard Cheney Republican 2,912,790 48.85% 25
Albert Gore Jr. Joseph Lieberman Democratic 2,912,253 48.84% 0
Ralph Nader Winona LaDuke Green 97,488 1.63% 0
Patrick Buchanan Ezola Foster Reform 17,484 0.29% 0
Harry Browne Art Olivier Libertarian 16,415 0.28% 0
Other (+) - - 6,680 0.11% 0
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6. Gerrymandering: Ugly, Uglier
• Governor Elbridge Gerry (MA)
• From Boston Gazette, March 1812
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Explaining Polarization
If the electorate is not polarized…1.Polarization is an election strategy
a) Polarized elitesb) The use of fear
2.Low Turnouta) only the most ideological vote
3.Purple States: swing voters4. Independents: alienated voters
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1. Polarization as an Election Strategy
1996 Gopac Memo from Newt Gingrich
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2. Voter Turnoutonly the most ideological vote
Presidential Midterm Primaries
1992 55% 1994 41%
1996 49% 1998 38%
2000 51% 2002 39%
2004 57% 2006 40%
2008 58% 2010 41% 2010 18%
2012 55% 2014 36% 2014 14%
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Voter Turnout
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3. Purple States: swing voters(143 EV)
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4. Independents: alienated voters
The center doesn’t vote?
But the left and right do?
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Bush Background
Senator Prescott Bush Pres. GHW Bush
(with Ike)
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His Administration
• Foreign Affairs advisers: Bush II
• Domestic Policy advisers: W I
• Policies: Reagan III
But: “Compassionate Conservatism”
No Child Left Behind
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Post-Modern Presidency?
• 1789-1933: Pre-Modern• 1933-1989: Modern or Crisis Presidency• 1989: End of the Crisis Presidency• Post-Modern?
– Bush-Clinton-Bush– Weak executive– Madisonian model– “Governor of the USA”
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World Trade Center, NYC
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Pentagon
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Post-September 11
• New Crisis Presidency• Return to Modern Presidency• Bush Address to Congress 9/20/01
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Unitary Executive Theory
• Executive Power
• National Security
• Theme in Republican Presidencies– Nixon - Impoundment– Nixon - Watergate– Reagan – Iran-Contra
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Bush and Presidential Power
1. Office of Homeland Security vs. Department of Homeland Security (DHS)
2. Asking for Authority
1. AUMF 9/18/01 (Authorization to Use Military Force)
2. Authorization for Use of Military Force against Iraq Resolution of 2002, 9/16/02
3. Surveillance
4. Detainees
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5. Signing Statements
Standard US Governmental Process
Congress introduces bill
negotiation begins Exec-Leg Bill becomes
agreement lawPresIntroduces bill Exec-Leg
disagreement
Congress passes bill
Pres vetoes
Congress overrides
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Standard Process with Signing Statement
P. implements
his versionCongress of lawintroduces bill Exec-Leg
negotiation agreement Bill becomes begins law
PresIntroduces bill Exec-Leg
disagreement
Pres. signs bill anyway;Adds interpretationin signing statement
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The Language in the Bush 43 Signing Statements
“The executive branch shall construe {reference to the bill} in a manner consistent with the constitutional authority of the President to supervise the unitary executive branch.”
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Executive Orders
By President•Lincoln’s Emancipation Proclamation 9/22/62•FDR’s Orders 1937•Carter creates FEMA 7/20/79•Bush creates HSC and OHS 10/8/01•Bush Military Order on Unlawful Enemy Combatants 11/13/01•Obama Executive Order on Immigration 11/20/14
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The Current Battle
House Lawsuit against Obama Actions on Affordable Care Act
•The Resolution Authorizing the Lawsuit
•New York Times
•Wall Street Journal
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Bush 43: The Slide
• Iraq
• Hurricane Katrina
• The Great Recession
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Hurricane Katrina
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US public opinion turns against the war
Source: Scott Keeter, Trends in Public Opinion about the War in Iraq, 2003-2007, March 2007: http://pewresearch.org/pubs/431/trends-in-
public-opinion-about-the-war-in-iraq-2003-2007
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The Great Recession
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Bush Public Approval