george t shirts - decision trees
DESCRIPTION
The objective is to maximize profit for a large venue.To maximize profit we need to sell 15% of the total venue which could range from 100,000 to 20,000.Our maximum profit would be obtained by selling 15% of the total tickets sold. We would not be able to sell 100% because the venue has its own t-shirt vendors. However, historically we would sell 10% of the t-shirts sold to attendees, which would about 10,000 shirts for a 100,000 seat venue. Because historically we sell 10%, our safest forecast is that we will sell 10% of 100,000 or 80,000. The estimate is based on 1000000 to 80000 due to the popularity of the group performing. The group has been selling 100% to 80% capacity in its previous arenas.Our risks come in the form of attendance and market share. If the attendance does not meet forecasting numbers or we do not capture 10% of the attendance we lose our profit because of the amount t-shirts we must purchase up front to meet the forecast.TRANSCRIPT
Order Size Cost Profit10,000 $32,125 $5.12 7,500 $25,250 $4.96 5,000 $17,750 $4.78
* $100 per dozen ** $ 8.33 per shirt
For Evaluation Only
TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only www.TreePlan.com
Purchase 5,000 T Shirts20314.25
For Evaluation Only
TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only www.TreePlan.com
10% Purchase
0.6 23,900.00
100,000 Attendees 5% Purchase
0.3 23,900.00 0.3 23,900.00
15% Purchase
0.1 23,900.00
10% Purchase
0.6 23,900.00
70,000 Attendees 5% Purchase
0.5 20,826.50 0.3 13,655.00
15% Purchase
0.1 23,900.00
10% Purchase
0.6 17,070.00
40,000 Attendees 5% Purchase
0.2 13,655.00 0.3 3,410.00
15% Purchase
For Evaluation Only
TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only www.TreePlan.com
0.1 23,900.00
For Evaluation Only
TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only www.TreePlan.com
23,900.00
23,900.00
23,900.00
23,900.00
13,655.00
23,900.00
17,070.00
3,410.00
23,900.00
For Evaluation Only
TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only www.TreePlan.com
ID Name Value Prob Pred0 TreePlan 0 0 01 0 02 0 03 0 04 0 15 0 16 0 17 0 28 0 29 0 2
10 0 311 0 312 0 3
For Evaluation Only
TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only www.TreePlan.com
Kind NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col MarkD 3 1 2 3 0 0 22 1 TRUED 3 4 5 6 0 0 7 5 TRUED 3 7 8 9 0 0 22 5 TRUED 3 10 11 12 0 0 37 5 TRUET 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 TRUET 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 9 TRUET 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 9 TRUET 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 9 TRUET 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 9 TRUET 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 9 TRUET 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 9 TRUET 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 9 TRUET 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 9 TRUE
For Evaluation Only
TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only www.TreePlan.com
Purchase 10,000 T Shirts25238.35
For Evaluation Only
TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only www.TreePlan.com
10% Purchase
0.6 37,225.00
100,000 Attendees 5% Purchase
0.3 32,102.50 0.3 20,150.00
15% Purchase
0.1 37,225.00
10% Purchase
0.6 33,810.00
70,000 Attendees 5% Purchase
0.5 26,980.00 0.3 9,905.00
15% Purchase
0.1 37,225.00
10% Purchase
0.6 13,320.00
40,000 Attendees 5% Purchase
0.2 10,588.00 0.3 (340.00)
15% Purchase
For Evaluation Only
TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only www.TreePlan.com
0.1 26,980.00
For Evaluation Only
TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only www.TreePlan.com
37,225.00
20,150.00
37,225.00
33,810.00
9,905.00
37,225.00
13,320.00
(340.00)
26,980.00
For Evaluation Only
TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only www.TreePlan.com
ID Name Value Prob Pred0 TreePlan 0 0 01 0 02 0 03 0 04 0 15 0 16 0 17 0 28 0 29 0 2
10 0 311 0 312 0 3
For Evaluation Only
TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only www.TreePlan.com
Kind NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col MarkD 3 1 2 3 0 0 22 1 TRUED 3 4 5 6 0 0 7 5 TRUED 3 7 8 9 0 0 22 5 TRUED 3 10 11 12 0 0 37 5 TRUET 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 TRUET 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 9 TRUET 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 9 TRUET 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 9 TRUET 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 9 TRUET 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 9 TRUET 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 9 TRUET 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 9 TRUET 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 9 TRUE
For Evaluation Only
TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only www.TreePlan.com
Purchase 10,000 T Shirts25238.35
For Evaluation Only
TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only www.TreePlan.com
10% Purchase
0.6 37,225.00
100,000 Attendees 5% Purchase
0.3 32,102.50 0.3 20,150.00
15% Purchase
0.1 37,225.00
10% Purchase
0.6 33,810.00
70,000 Attendees 5% Purchase
0.5 26,980.00 0.3 9,905.00
15% Purchase
0.1 37,225.00
10% Purchase
0.6 13,320.00
40,000 Attendees 5% Purchase
0.2 10,588.00 0.3 (340.00)
15% Purchase
For Evaluation Only
TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only www.TreePlan.com
0.1 26,980.00
For Evaluation Only
TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only www.TreePlan.com
37,225.00
20,150.00
37,225.00
33,810.00
9,905.00
37,225.00
13,320.00
(340.00)
26,980.00
For Evaluation Only
TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only www.TreePlan.com
ID Name Value Prob Pred0 TreePlan 0 0 01 0 02 0 03 0 04 0 15 0 16 0 17 0 28 0 29 0 2
10 0 311 0 312 0 3
For Evaluation Only
TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only www.TreePlan.com
Kind NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col MarkD 3 1 2 3 0 0 22 1 TRUED 3 4 5 6 0 0 7 5 TRUED 3 7 8 9 0 0 22 5 TRUED 3 10 11 12 0 0 37 5 TRUET 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 TRUET 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 9 TRUET 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 9 TRUET 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 9 TRUET 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 9 TRUET 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 9 TRUET 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 9 TRUET 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 9 TRUET 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 9 TRUE