george s. vascik miami university
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Guardians of tradition or agents of modernity: sources of National Socialist appeal in rural northwest Germany. George S. Vascik Miami University. Polling places in northwest Germany. Kreise and Ämter. R üstringen. Hadeln. Neuhaus. Jever. Lehe. Wittmund. Kehdingen. Norden. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Guardians of tradition or agents of modernity: sources of National
Socialist appeal in rural northwest Germany
George S. Vascik
Miami University
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Polling places in northwest Germany
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Kreise and Ämter
NordenWittmund
Jork
Hadeln Neuhaus
Kehdingen
Osterholz
Bremervörde
Stade
Lehe
Geestemünde
Blumenthal
Elsfleth
WesterstedeLeer
Weener
Emden
Oldenburg
Varel
JeverRüstringen
Butjadingen
Brake
Aurich
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Plurality winners, 1924_1
DNVP
DNVP
DHP
Wittmund
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1924_1 1928 1930 1932_1
P value
R2 P value
R2 P value
R2 P value
R2
All/tax hectare 0.907 0.0 0.273 0.2 0.444 0.1 0.000 5.9
All/pop. density 0.295 0.2 0.728 0.0 0.750 0.0 0.351 0.2
All/RR distance 0.178 0.8 0.119 1.1 0.017 3.0 0.776 0.0
1924_1 1928 1930 1932_1
P value
R2 P value
R2 P value
R2 P value
R2
All/tax/density 0.576 0.2 0.536 0.2 0.729 0.1 0.000 6.4
All/tax/distance 0.398 0.9 0.156 1.7 0.025 3.8 0.096 2.2
All/density/dist 0.285 1.2 0.223 1.4 0.057 3.0 0.118 2.0
All/den/tax/dist 0.454 1.2 0.249 1.9 0.061 3.9 0.015 4.9
Determinants of Racist success in all villages(multiple variables)
Determinants of Racist success in all villages(single variable)
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1924_1 1928 1930 1932_1
P value
R2 P value
R2 P value
R2 P value
R2
Ag/tax hectare 0.000 13.8 0.000 12.9 0.000 12.4 0.000 7.4
Ag/pop. density 0.000 13.4 0.000 11.1 0.000 12.3 0.027 0.5
Ag/RR distance 0.000 11.3 0.007 4.5 0.001 7.2 0.001 7.2
1924_1 1928 1930 1932_1
P value
R2 P value
R2 P value
R2 P value
R2
Ag/tax/density 0.000 14.3 0.000 13.0 0.000 12.5 0.000 7.9
Ag/tax/distance 0.000 12.9 0.020 4.5 0.003 7.3 0.000 9.1
Ag/density/dist 0.000 11.7 0.018 4.6 0.003 7.2 0.006 5.7
Ag/den/tax/dist 0.000 13.7 0.040 4.6 0.007 7.3 0.000 11.9
Determinants of Racist success Liberal villages(multiple variables)
Determinants of Racist success in Liberal villages(single variable)
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Völkisch votes in relation to pre-War Liberal hegemony, May 1924
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Agrarian block leader, 1924_1
VSB
Bremervoerde
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Hamburg
Bremen
Locating Bremervoerde
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Constituency: Hanover 18
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Constituency 15
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Bremervörde
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GIS of Kreis Bremervoerde
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The complex nature of politics in Bremervoerde
• Liberals and Radicals – Who they were and what they represented
• The German-Hanoverian party– Who they were and what they represented
• The Agrarians – Bund der Landwirte later Reichslandbund
• Creating the Composite Voting Indices
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Mapping areas of political
orientation
Liberal = goldDHP = greenAgrarian = striped
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Single variables influencing Liberal, Agrarian, and Modern orientation
Liberal Agrarian Traditionalist
P-value R-Sq P-value R-Sq P-value R-Sq
Parish 0.000 20.6% 0.676 0.3% 0.000 26.0%
Area 0.547 0.7% 0.359 1.5% 0.465 1.0%
Tax/hectare 0.340 1.7% 0.002 16.0% 0.095 5.0%
RR distance
Population 0.208 2.9% 0.290 2.0% 0.073 5.7%
Pop. density
0.031 8.2% 0.026 8.7% 0.027 8.6%
% non-Evangelical
0.141 3.9% 0.332 1.7% 0.116 4.4%
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Composite Liberal and Traditionalist Vote percentages by parish
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Scatter plot of Composite Agrarian Vote percentages and tax/hectare
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Probability plot of Composite Agrarian Value percentages and tax/hectare
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Transformative effect of the Great War
• Immediate post-War results• Continued German-Hanoverian strength
and spread– What it meant
• May 1924 referendum• The impact of the Great Inflation
– Dissolution of the Liberal (DVP) and Radical (DDP) parties
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Immediate post-War results
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May referendum
Question: should Hanover be allowed to form a state independent of Prussia?
Voting in two stages: first to decide if question should be put to the voters, second actual binding vote.
To move to second stage, a majority of 33% of eligible votes must vote yes.
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Impact of the Great Inflation• Collapse of support
for DVP and DDP in election with 6.7% greater turnout
• Shifting support to DNVP
• Growth of Racist VSB
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Locating political
anti-Semitism in Kreis
Bremervoerde
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Single variables influencing votes cast for the VSB in May 1924
P-value R-Sq
Composite Liberal Value 0.000 31.6%
Composite Agrarian Value 0.316 1.8%
Composite Traditionalist Value 0.000 23.2%
Parish 0.037 7.7%
Area 0.090 5.1%
Tax/hectare 0.122 4.3%
Railroad distance
Population 0.192 3.1%
Population density 0.450 1.0%
% non-Evangelical 0.496 0,8%
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The rural crisis of 1927/28
• Discussion of events
• Landvolk movement
• Founding of the CNBLP– Created by Landbund– Opposed to DNVP and Racists– Alliance with the German Hanoverians
• Campaign of 1928
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Single variables influencing votes cast for the NSDAP in May 1928
P-value R-Sq
Composite Liberal Value 0.013 10.6%
Composite Agrarian Value 0.233 2.6%
Composite Traditionalist Value 0.045 7.1%
Parish 0.003 14.9%
Area 0.020 9.5%
Tax/hectare 0.947 0.0%
Railroad distance
Population 0.021 9.3%
Population density 0.307 1.9%
% non-Evangelical 0.200 3.0%
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Single variables influencing votes cast for the CNBLP in May 1928
P-value R-Sq
Composite Liberal Value 0.310 1.9%
Composite Agrarian Value 0.001 18.4%
Composite Traditionalist Value 0.183 3.2%
Parish 0.832 0.1%
Area 0.443 1.1%
Tax/hectare 0.142 3.9%
Railroad distance
Population 0.179 3.3%
Population density 0.244 2.5%
% non-Evangelical 0.065 6.1%
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Christian Nationalist
Peasants’ and Rural
Peoples’ Party
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Who collects post-1928 detritus?
• The CNBLP, created by the Landbund as a mean of channeling rural discontent, turned out to be a way-station to the NSDAP
• CNBLP vote 1928:NSDAP vote 1930 – P-value 0.007 R-Sq=13.1%
• German-Hanoverians reemerge as the largest party in the majority of villages
• After 1930 elections, Christian Nationalists enter government and craft a Rural Recovery Program with DHP support
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The election of September
1930• Where Racists did
best• Areas of residual
Traditionalist strength
• The battle within the Landbund between Traditionalists and Nazis
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Single variables influencing votes cast for the NSDAP in September 1930
P-value R-Sq
Composite Liberal Value 0.000 23.9%
Composite Agrarian Value 0.028 9.0%
Composite Traditionalist Value 0.000 24.1%
CNBLP vote 1928 0.007 13.1%
Parish 0.004 15.2%
Area 0.133 4.3%
Tax/hectare 0.011 11.8%
Population 0.263 2.4%
Population density 0.613 0.5%
% non-Evangelical 0.731 0.2%
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Single variables influencing votes cast for the NSDAP in July 1932
P-value R-Sq
Composite Liberal Value 0.224 2.8%
Composite Agrarian Value 0.018 10.2%
Composite Traditionalist Value 0.533 0.7%
Parish 0.465 1.0%
Area 0.351 1.6%
Tax/hectare 0.288 2.1%
Railroad distance
Population 0.360 1.6%
Population density 0.046 7.3%
% non-Evangelical 0.078 5.8%
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Votes cast for the Deutsch-Hannoversche Partei, 1893-1932
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Participation
1919 1920 1924/1 1924/2 1928 1930 1932/1 1932/2 1933
Votes 9,687 9,169 9,784 9,882 11,032 11,655 12,432 11,290 12,719
% 93.4 88.4 94.3 95.3>11.6% >5.6% >6.6% <9.2% >12.7
>11.6% 17.9% 25.8% 14.2% 28.7%
Eligible voters in May 1924: 10,372
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Conclusions
• Voters in historically Liberal towns and villages were most susceptible to Racist and Nazi appeals after 1924
• Voters in historically Traditionalist towns and villages resisted the Nazis the longest
• The German-Hanoverian party was much more capable of maintaining its traditional voter base than most historians allow
• The Nazi triumph in 1932 was based in part on bringing new voters into the process