george campsen's north atlantic right whale independent study powerpoint presentation

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North Atlantic Right Whale Study Researched and Presented by: George E. Campsen The Citadel

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Page 1: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

North Atlantic Right Whale Study

Researched and Presented by:

George E. CampsenThe Citadel

Page 2: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

Agenda

• Purpose/Background• Database and Area of Interest• South Carolina plots and trend analysis• Northeast plots and trend analysis• Ship activity • Ship strike vs. entanglements• Population growth

Page 3: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

Purpose

• Find a less imposing yet equally effective alternative to federal regulation 50 CFR Part 224.105– In South Carolina-

• November 1 – April 30• Ten knots • Twenty miles

• Two Proposals:– Mandatory DMA– Reduction in time frame

Page 4: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

Determining a Database and an Area of Interest

• Annual reports listed on NOAA.gov to be used as database- Provided by Sea to Shore Alliance– http://sero.nmfs.noaa.gov/pr/mm/rightwhales/SoutheastRegionsContractsAerialSurveyReports.htm

• Flight Team Description– Federally funded– Team Description – Active Dates

• Area of Interest• Charleston Harbor and Shipping Channel, South • 32° 20’N to 33°N.

Page 5: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

2004- 2005 Right Whale Sightings between the ranges of 32°20’N and 33°N

12 Whales Sighted

9 Whales Sighted

8 Whales Sighted

6 Whales Sighted

4 Whales Sighted

3 Whales Sighted

2 Whales Sighted

1 Whale Sighted

2004-2005 Data

Total Whales Sighted:14

Percentage within Speed Zone:100%

Percentage outside of Speed Zone:0%

Page 6: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

2005- 2006 Right Whale Sightings between the ranges of 32°20’N and 33°N

12 Whales Sighted

9 Whales Sighted

8 Whales Sighted

6 Whales Sighted

4 Whales Sighted

3 Whales Sighted

2 Whales Sighted

1 Whale Sighted

2005-2006 Data

Total Whales Sighted:34

Percentage within Speed Zone:100%

Percentage outside of Speed Zone:0%

Page 7: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

2006- 2007 Right Whale Sightings between the ranges of 32°20’N and 33°N

12 Whales Sighted

9 Whales Sighted

8 Whales Sighted

6 Whales Sighted

4 Whales Sighted

3 Whales Sighted

2 Whales Sighted

1 Whale Sighted

2006-2007 Data

Total Whales Sighted:7

Percentage within Speed Zone:100%

Percentage outside of Speed Zone:0%

Page 8: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

2007- 2008 Right Whale Sightings between the ranges of 32°20’N and 33°N

12 Whales Sighted

9 Whales Sighted

8 Whales Sighted

6 Whales Sighted

4 Whales Sighted

3 Whales Sighted

2 Whales Sighted

1 Whale Sighted

2007-2008 Data

Total Whales Sighted:27

Percentage within Speed Zone:67%

Percentage outside of Speed Zone:33%

Page 9: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

2008- 2009 Right Whale Sightings between the ranges of 32°20’N and 33°N

12 Whales Sighted

9 Whales Sighted

8 Whales Sighted

6 Whales Sighted

4 Whales Sighted

3 Whales Sighted

2 Whales Sighted

1 Whale Sighted

2008-2009 Data

Total Whales Sighted:32

Percentage within Speed Zone:47%

Percentage outside of Speed Zone:53%

Page 10: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

2009- 2010 Right Whale Sightings between the ranges of 32°20’N and 33°N

12 Whales Sighted

9 Whales Sighted

8 Whales Sighted

6 Whales Sighted

4 Whales Sighted

3 Whales Sighted

2 Whales Sighted

1 Whale Sighted

2009-2010 Data

Total Whales Sighted:40

Percentage within Speed Zone:62%

Percentage outside of Speed Zone:38%

Page 11: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

2010- 2011 Right Whale Sightings between the ranges of 32°20’N and 33°N

12 Whales Sighted

9 Whales Sighted

8 Whales Sighted

6 Whales Sighted

4 Whales Sighted

3 Whales Sighted

2 Whales Sighted

1 Whale Sighted

2010-2011 Data

Total Whales Sighted:17

Percentage within Speed Zone:100%

Percentage outside of Speed Zone:0%

Page 12: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

2011- 2012 Right Whale Sightings between the ranges of 32°20’N and 33°N

12 Whales Sighted

9 Whales Sighted

8 Whales Sighted

6 Whales Sighted

4 Whales Sighted

3 Whales Sighted

2 Whales Sighted

1 Whale Sighted

2011-2012 Data

Total Whales Sighted:32

Percentage within Speed Zone:37%

Percentage outside of Speed Zone:63%

Page 13: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

2004-2012 Long Term Average of Right Whale Sightings between the ranges of 32°20’N and 33°N

Long Term Numbers

Total Whales Sighted : 203Number within Speed Zone: 142Number outside of Speed Zone: 61

70% 30%

November December January February March April0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

Trackline Miles Flown/1000

Whales Seen 32° 20' to 33°

Whales Seen 32° 20' to 33°/ 1000 Trackline Miles

Month NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR

Whales 32°20’N and 33°N/1000 miles

.9 2.1 1.9 5.3 5.0 0

Monthly breakdown of whales seen 32°20’N to 33°N

Page 14: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

Findings about South Carolina Activity

• South Carolina Right Whale density– 25.4 whales per year

• South Carolina migratory route– Tail end

• Very low numbers in November and April

Page 15: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

Moving On

• Northeast- Ports of the Gulf of Maine– Boston– Portland – Portsmouth– Searsport– Belfast– Bar Harbor– Eastport

Page 16: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

2006 Northeast SightingsAll Sightings: Aerial, Opportunistic, USCG, Shipboard, Whale Watch,

Acoustic, CommercialNOTE: The Average Number of whales per sighting in this region is 4.65

Jan 1- May 15Mar 1-Apr 30Apr 1-Jul 31

-71 -70 -69 -68 -67 -66 -65

Page 17: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

Jan 1- May 15Mar 1-Apr 30Apr 1-Jul 31

-71 -70 -69 -68 -67 -66 -65

2007 Northeast SightingsAll Sightings: Aerial, Opportunistic, USCG, Shipboard, Whale Watch,

Acoustic, CommercialNOTE: The Average Number of whales per sighting in this region is 4.65

Page 18: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

Jan 1- May 15Mar 1-Apr 30Apr 1-Jul 31

-71 -70 -69 -68 -67 -66 -65

2008 Northeast SightingsAll Sightings: Aerial, Opportunistic, USCG, Shipboard, Whale Watch,

Acoustic, CommercialNOTE: The Average Number of whales per sighting in this region is 4.65

Page 19: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

Jan 1- May 15Mar 1-Apr 30Apr 1-Jul 31

-71 -70 -69 -68 -67 -66 -65

2009 Northeast SightingsAll Sightings: Aerial, Opportunistic, USCG, Shipboard, Whale Watch,

Acoustic, CommercialNOTE: The Average Number of whales per sighting in this region is 4.65

Page 20: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

Jan 1- May 15Mar 1-Apr 30Apr 1-Jul 31

-71 -70 -69 -68 -67 -66 -65

2010 Northeast SightingsAll Sightings: Aerial, Opportunistic, USCG, Shipboard, Whale Watch,

Acoustic, CommercialNOTE: The Average Number of whales per sighting in this region is 4.65

Page 21: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

Jan 1- May 15Mar 1-Apr 30Apr 1-Jul 31

-71 -70 -69 -68 -67 -66 -65

2011 Northeast SightingsAll Sightings: Aerial, Opportunistic, USCG, Shipboard, Whale Watch,

Acoustic, CommercialNOTE: The Average Number of whales per sighting in this region is 4.65

Page 22: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

2006-2011 Long Term Average of Right Whale Sightings North of of 40°N

Long Term Numbers

Total Whales Sighted : 12,760Whales within Speed Zone: 7,842Whales outside of Speed Zone: 4,918

With the current speed zones 38.5% of whales are sighted outside of the regulated area and are subjected to heavy ship traffic

61.5%

38.5%

Total

Whale

s

Whale

s insid

e of R

egulat

ed Zo

ne

Whale

s Outsi

de of R

egulat

ed Zo

ne0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Page 23: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

AIS Shipping Movements with Whale Sightings Overlay

• AIS ship tracking images and whale sightings for the years 2009 and 2010.

• Approximately 1315.5 ships avoid the regulated areas annually: 20-25 knots– U.S. Dept. of Homeland security document: • CF1401-Record of Vessel In Foreign Trade-Clearances

Page 24: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

-71.00 -70.50 -70.00 -69.50 -69.00 -68.50 -68.00 -67.50 -67.00

-71 -70 -69 -68 -67 -66 -6540

41

42

43

44

45

46

2009 (AIS) Vessel Traffic with 2009 Whale sightings overlay and speed zone boundaries

Note the large amount of unregulated ship activity above the speed zones. In this region approximately 38.5% of all ships in this region avoid regulated areas so as to steam at full cruising speed. In this area an average of 819.7 whales are seen outside of the regulated areas annually.

Page 25: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

-71 -70 -69 -68 -67 -66 -6540

41

42

43

44

45

46

-71.00 -70.50 -70.00 -69.50 -69.00 -68.50 -68.00 -67.50 -67.00Note the large amount of unregulated ship activity above the speed zones. In this region approximately 38.5% of all ships in this region avoid regulated areas so as to steam at full cruising speed. In this area an average of 819.7 whales are seen outside of the regulated areas annually.

2010 (AIS) Vessel Traffic with 2010 Whale sightings overlay and speed zone boundaries

Page 26: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

2009 (AIS) Vessel Traffic with 2009 Whale sightings overlay and speed zone boundaries

Note the large amount of regulated ship activity in this area with very little whale activity. In this region 100% of ships leaving Charleston Harbor are slowed to 10 knots until they reach the 20 mile line. In the 40 nautical mile stretch around Charleston an average of 7.6 whales are seen outside of the regulated areas annually.

Page 27: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

2010 (AIS) Vessel Traffic with 2010 Whale sightings overlay and speed zone boundaries

Note the large amount of regulated ship activity in this area with very little whale activity. In this region 100% of ships leaving Charleston Harbor are slowed to 10 knots until they reach the 20 mile line. In the 40 nautical mile stretch around Charleston an average of 7.6 whales are seen outside of the regulated areas annually.

Page 28: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

What about when there are no regulations in effect?

• Whale sightings when no regulations are in effect

• Remember- each sighting in the Northeast represents 4.65 whales

Page 29: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

-71 -70 -69 -68 -67 -66 -65

2009 (AIS) Vessel Traffic with 2006-2011 Whale sightings when speed regulations are not in effect

Note the large amount of whale and ship activity in this area when there are no speed regulations in effect. In this area an average of 744 whales are seen annually when no regulations are in effect.

Page 30: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

Note the large amount of ship activity in this area with no whale activity. In this region an average of 0 whales are seen annually when there are no speed zones in effect.

2010 (AIS) Vessel Traffic with 2004-2012 Whale sightings when speed regulations are not in effect

Page 31: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

Leading causes of Death:Ship Strikes vs. Entanglement

• Lethal Ship Strike- When a vessel collides with a whale causing death

• Lethal entanglement- When a whale becomes entrapped in a line that ultimately results in death

Page 32: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

Ship Strikes before and after enactment of the speed regulation

• Prior to regulation: 19 strikes in 38 years– One every other year

• National Geographic October 2008 Issue

• After regulation: 2 Strikes in 4 years– One every other year

• NARWC Report Cards 2009-2012

• How effective is the regulation?

Page 33: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

Death by Entanglement vs. Death by Ship Strike 2009-2012

2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 TOTAL0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Whales Killed by EntanglementWhales Killed by Ship Strikes

Page 34: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

Comparative Risk Hypothesis

• While ship strike regulations seem to be ineffective, entanglements pose a much greater risk.

• Strategies to prevent, identify, and respond to entanglements may be far more effective in advancing the species.

• Response capabilities are loosely organized in South Carolina. Assets have been volunteered, though there has been little communication with these assets, and the SEIT currently has no residents of South Carolina seated.

Page 35: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

Population Growth Trends

The North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium estimates the current North Atlantic Right Whale population at 509 individuals. They also believe that the population has been growing steadily for over 20 years.

Page 36: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

Right Whale Population Analysis

• 1990 to 2008- no ship speed regulations– Population jump of roughly 150 individuals

• Ship strike rate is the same before and after the enactment of the regulation – How effective is the regulation?

Page 37: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

Preliminary Significant Figures

Port of Charleston• Avg. number of whales spotted

annually: 25.4• Avg. number of whales seen

outside of regulated zone annually: 7.6

• Avg. number of whales seen during non-regulated time frame: 0 annually

• Ships avoiding speed zone when active: 0 annually

• Historical Ship Strikes in South Carolina: 0*

Gulf of Maine Ports• Avg. number of whales spotted

annually: 2,126• Avg. number of whales seen

outside of regulated zone annually: 819

• Avg. number of whales seen during non-regulated time frame: 744 annually

• Ships avoiding speed zone when active: 1315.5 annually

• Historical Ship Strikes near the Gulf of Maine: 13*

*Statistics taken from October 2008 National Geographic and the annual NARWC report card

Page 38: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

Food for Thought

• If NOAA is fine with having well over 800 unprotected whales per year in the Northeast, then why do we regulate so few whales so rigorously off South Carolina?

• Over 38 % of Northeast Whales are not protected by speed regulations.

Page 39: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

Alternate Regulations:Proposed are two options for effective strategies for South

Carolina waters

Option 1• Implement mandatory Dynamic

Management Areas (DMA’s)– Flights occur off of South

Carolina every day, weather permitting, from November 15th to April 15th. A better alternative to the current rule would be mandatory, two-week DMA for a ten to twenty mile radius around every sighting off of South Carolina. This would protect the whales when they are here, but also allow ships to travel efficiently when the whales are not here.

Option 2• Reduce the Regulation Period

from six to four months– My research clearly indicates

that whale numbers off the coast of South Carolina are negligible during the months of November and April. I propose that NOAA reduces the “speed-zone” time to exclude the months of November and April. Currently we are slowing down ships for a negligible amount of whales.

Page 40: George Campsen's North Atlantic Right Whale Independent Study Powerpoint Presentation

Conclusion

• Thank you for your time, and I hope that you will consider these facts as we collaborate on right whale protective strategies.

Questions? Comments?