Geopolitics:

The shadow behind foreign politicsin Eastern Europe

Jacques Bazen, For KOEH Conference at Chisinau, 9 April 2014

Topics of the lecture• Origins of Geopolitics

• History of the 20th century from a Geo political perspective

• Is World War III around the corner?

Balance of power thinkingEurope has, since the Peace of Westphalia in the 17th century, a political situation with several “superpowers”, France, England, Russia, Austria (later also Germany) and many smaller countries.International politics and diplomacy were focused at maintaining the balance between the nations. None of them should become too powerfulIn wars, quickly changing and unstable alliances

MetternichAustrian chancellor Von Metternich was the architect of the modern borders within (Western) Europe.The congress of Vienna in 1815 was the ultimate form of balance of power thinking.

Origins of Geo PoliticsSince the industrial revolution, states need more and more resources for production and people to work in factories.Foreign policy based on secure access to resources.

Origins of Geo PoliticsOtto von Bismarck: development of Realpolitik, set of measures with goal to unify Germany, and keep it strong by all possible means.Cautious, but Machiavellian way of political practice.

Origins of Geo PoliticsAlfred Thayer Mahan: Sea-power is more important than land-powerMaritime nations will be more successful as land based nations.Example: France was eventually defeated by Britain in the Napoleonic age.

Origins of Geo PoliticsFriedrich Ratzel: Organic state theory. States are like organisms. Stagnation is decay.Idea of growth: German culture should “fertilize” minor nations

Origins of Geo PoliticsRudolf Kjellén: Any successful state has more or less managed to gain autarky. The state controls the society like the brain controls the body, by means of law and the military.

Origins of Geo PoliticsSir Halford John MackinderHeartland thesis, based on idea that land-powers will become more important than sea-powers.Opposite idea of Mahan

Sir Halford John Mackinder

Heartland thesisIcy sea

Gobi desert

HimalayaDesert Sino-Japaneseinvasion

German invasion

German-Russian alliance

Threats to the Heartland, according to Mackinder

Mackinder’s nightmare (1900's)

Mackinder’s thesis at Versailles / Trianon peace negotiations in 1919“Whoever controls Eastern Europe controls the Heartland. Whoever controls the Heartland controls the World Island. Whoever controls the World Island controls the World!”

Need for buffer states in Eastern Europe

Heartland World Island

Mackinder’s dream? (1929)

Buffer States

Origins of Geo politicsHaushofer: idea of Lebensraum,States need to grow even though the territory is already occupied (especially if they are artificial buffer states) Germany lost WWI because of wrong allies.

Karl Ernst Haushofer

The continent of dictatorships

Nazi Geo politicsConquer Eastern Europe, then attack Russia, to gain control over the Heartland.Britain and America are less important.Japan was important ally, to conquer China and South East Asia.The leaders of Nazi Germany had a wrong image of the power of Russia.

Nazi advance in WWII

Cold War Geo politicsSoviet Union had control over Eastern Europe and the Heartland:• The Western World feared domino effect of

spreading of communism.• Rim-land theory (Spijkman)• Development of Containment policy

(Kennan)• Development of Realpolitik (Kissinger)

Spykman’s Rim-land thesis

Nico Spijkman’s Rim-land borders

Containment policyKennan’s idea: Soviet rulers need a hostile world to legitimize their autocratic rule and seek to expand to minimize the “threat” from outside. America should create a counterforce by giving economic aid (Marshall plan)Later: Military intervention instead of aid

Hitherto shalt thou come and not further!

(Lyndon B. Johnson)

Western counter-actions

Communist expansion

USA’s point of view

RealpolitikDeveloped after the Vietnam defeat by Henri Kissinger & Zbigniew Brzezinski

Idea: Pragmatic approach to foreign affairs. Support (almost) anyone that fights the spread of communism.

American imperialism…Or Soviet Expansionism…?

European Union in the 21st century•On one hand: process of European

integration (through the EU institutions)

•On the other hand: process of regionalization (Fragmentation). Fear of losing identity leads to populist and (neo) nationalist and populist ideas and politics

•Economic crisis left the “European project” in a deep crisis

Europe in the 21st century

Scenario: Fragm

entation

Europe in the 21st century

Scenario: United statesof Europe

Post Cold War Geo politics(according to Zbigniew Brzezinski)• Soviet Union didn’t profit from its strategic

position, it collapsed due to the ineffective and inefficient economic system

• Some former Soviet states are extremely rich in natural resources.

• Azerbeijan, Kazachstan and Turkmenistan in oil and gas.

• Eurasia will remain a “resource-conflict-zone”

• For Russia the destruction of the Soviet Union is a psychological disaster

21st Century Geopolitical theoryZbigniew Brzezinski: America is the only remaining superpower and remains necessary to solve Eurasian problems as independent referee → “Project for the new American century”

21st Century geopoliticsCritisicm on geopolitics:Francis Fukayama's essay in 1989, “The end of history”

Thesis: Liberal corporate friendly democracy has won, No further socio-political development of mankind: “We have arrived”

21st Century GeopoliticsCriticism on Fukayama:Samuel P. Huntington,“Clash of Civilizations andremaking of the world order”→ “We have NOT arrived!”

21st Century Clash of Civilizations?

One interpretation of the work of Huntington

21st century GeopoliticsRussia’s GeopoliticsAlexandr Dugin:“Foundations of Geopolitics”

Mastermind behind Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy: Eurasian Unity

Idea of breaking American dominance, restoration of Russia as an empire (Multipolar “Balance of power” in the world)

Divisions of Europe (model)

Finlandization of EuropeRussian sphereGerman sphereEnemy: “Sea

power”

Moscow – Berlin axis

Moscow – Teheranaxis

21st Century Europe•Are we heading for

war?

•Are the troubles in Ukraine an isolated matter between Ukraine and Russia or will it be a new 1938 “Czechoslovakia”?

21st Century Europe•Are we heading

for war?

•What is the role of propaganda in both the Western and Russian media?

21st Century Europe

Pipelines from Russia into Europe

The Battle for Resources

Discussion and relevanceHow relevant is the current struggle in Eastern Europe?- Aren’t we heading towards an age of China,

and are the struggles between EU and Russia not just a fight in the “backyard”?

- Did Mackinder’s heartland thesis become a self fullfilling prophecy?

- Why are international relations always seen as a zero-sum game of gaining and losing influence?

- What will be the influence of renewable energy sources?