geopolitical watch graph report 1: the current military spending boom (90s to today)

THE CURRENT MILITARY SPENDING BOOM (90s TO

TODAY)

Geopolitical Watch Report #1@geopolwatch

Military spending has been rising since the end of WWII


The exception was the 90s (post Cold War)

Since the 2000s, military spending started to grow again… and most quickly than ever

Long term trends in military spending


But there has been a change of players

Non USA NATO countries military spending has stagnated since the 90s

Non NATO countries military spending has exploded since the 90s

WHILE


Nevertheless, military spending continues to be very unequally distributed among countries

112 out 137 countries (81%) for which their is available data spent less than 100.000 US$m in military between 1999 and 2013, while the USA spent around 850.000 US$m during the same period

The USA continues to be the military spending behemoth

But China has reached the (still distant) second position


The military spending plutocracy


Who are the medium players that now lag close to China?


In general terms, big players have not set the pace in the current military spending race


The USA are the most striking example: although it is by far the biggest player of the period (enormous spending and share of world spending compared to the others), its military spending growth rate (63%) has been 40 points above the world’s mean (87%) during the current spending boom

The same can be said of most of the big players (France, UK, Japan, Germany, India, Brazil, South Korea, Italy…), as we can see by doing a close-up of the previous without taking into account USA’s extravagant spending while measuring relative spending between countries (size of the bubbles)

In general terms, big players have not set the pace in the current military spending race


Nevertheless, there are two striking exceptions

China (not a NATO member) 2nd biggest player; military spending rate 4,5 bigger than the world’s average

Russia (not a NATO member) 6th biggest player; military spending rate 2 times bigger than the world’s average

Saudi Arabia (NATO member) 9th biggest player; military spending rate 1,7 times bigger than the world’s average

Big players that increased their spending at a very rapid pace compared to other countries

Small players that increased their military spending spectaculary

Azerbaijan (not a NATO member, close to Russia) 11 times bigger than the world’s average

Kazakhstan (not a NATO member, close to Russia) 7 times bigger than the world’s average

Georgia (not a NATO member, but close to it) 5,5 times bigger than the world’s average

Conclusions (1/2)


After the post Cold War truce in the 90s, military spending started a new phase of long term rise like it had been the case since the 50s, but at a quicker pace

In terms of absolute spending, the USA and non NATO countries have been the leaders of the current military spending boom

While the USA continues to be by far the leading country of the world’s military spending plutocracy, China has reached a (still distant) second position

In terms of rate of growth of military spending, non USA big players lagged behind the average, except for China, Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Two out of the three countries that increased their military spending enormously in comparison to the world’s average (Azerbaijan and Kazakstan) are small Russia-allied players from its region

Conclusions (2/2)


Therefore, we can state that although the USA continue to be the undeniable leaders of the military spending plutocracy, two non NATO anti-USA countries have been starting to dispute its leadership.

High military spending being a non sufficient condition for global or regional military dominance power, a 3 global military leaders landscape (USA, China and Russia) seems to be more and more likely