General Problems of

Social

System Modelling &

Problems and Models

of Sustainable

DevelopmentProfessor Alexander S. MAKARENKO

Institute for Applied System Analysis atNational Technical University of Ukraine (KPI) , Kyiv, Ukraine, Head of Applied Nonlinear Analysis DepartmentE-mail: makalex@i.com.ua

The lecture course is devoted to the description of

recent opportunities which are supplied by precise

sciences:

physics, mathematics, synergetic, informatics etc. for

understanding of behavior, modeling and forecasting

of one of the most complex recent systems,

namely those which include humans and especially

large collections of peoples.

The examples are social, economical, political and

global systems.

BLOCS OF LECTURES:

1. General description of social systems and

problems of their modeling.

2. Existing models and algorithms for social

systems.

3. Problem of sustainable development.

Formalization and modeling.

4. Recent and future problems in social systems

modeling.

SCIENCES IN SOCIETY RESEARCH

*** More recent scientific disciplines (more

mathematical as usual !):

Physics, Theoretical Physics, Self-organization theory, Pure

mathematics, Biology, System Analysis, General systems

theory, Operational research, Information technologies,

Cybernetics, Neurophysiology, Complexity and information

theory, Evolution theory

** Classical Sciences:

Philosophy, Sociology, Politology, Demography, Art,

Archeology, Management sciences, Geography, Teology,

* S O C I E T Y *

** Classical Sciences:

Philosophy,

Sociology,

Politology,

Demography,

Art,

Archeology,

Management sciences,

Geography,

Teology,

*** More recent scientific disciplines (more

mathematical as usual !) :

Physics,

Theoretical Physics,

Self-organization theory,

Pure mathematics,

Biology,

System Analysis,

General systems theory,

Operational research,

Information technologies,

Cybernetics,

Neurophysiology,

Complexity and information theory,

Evolution theory

The issues from system analysis:

holism (that is considering the system as the whole);

hierarchical levels in the system;

complexity of the system;

emergent of new properties;

evolutionary nature of the systems;

different space and time scales in the systems;

complex interaction between elements;

mentality accounting in analysis;

the goals, laws of evolution of the systems;

influence of environment;

stability and sustainable development;

different scenarios of development;

risks and dangers for system;

leverage points and bifurcations;

AUTHORITIES (CLASSICS):

Weiner, J. von Neumann,

Prigogine, Ashby, Bertalanfi,

Rosen, Rashevski, Eresmann,

Chikelend, Maturana, Varela,

Miller, Swanson, Zadeh,

Chikelend, Turchin, Mayer-

Cress, Moiseev, Glushkov, …

Time scales of social systems

Universe

---------

Seconds

-------

Space scales of social systems

Universe

--------

--------

-------

Individuum

PECULARITIES OF SOCIAL SYSTEMS (1):

Firstly in complex system dynamic there exist some

global structures (for example formations or

civilisations).

The socio-technical system as the rule change in the

frame of such structures.

Secondly, alternation in elements state frequently is

determined by the influence of some environment.

This can be described by some mean field approach .

There are many interrelations between the elements of

complex systems (and not only in social but also in

natural systems).

PECULARITIES OF SOCIAL SYSTEMS (2):

There are many sub-processes in such system –

communicational, political, social, cultural and so on.

The system can go from one global structure to

another by two ways: evolutionary or by revolution.

Revolution can be described by fast rupture of bonds

and may be unpredictable.

Evolutionary way is long and demands patience.

Yet on such global level there are phenomena of life-

cycle type.

For example, the change of social formation may be

considered as the change of "patterns" in such

models.

Branch of industry may be considered as union of

producers, consumers and mediators.

These relations have the same properties as the

subjects of global model:

The bonds are build evolutionary, all structure of

industry branch is rather stable,

SOME APPLICATIONS

COMPUTER COMPLEX FOR GEOPOLITICAL PROGNOZING AND MANY-

TEAM INTERNET TRAINING

FORMATION OF CITIES, MODEL OF ISOLATION OF HARMFUL

MANUFACTURES FOR LIMITS OF CITY

DEMOGRAPHYCAL AND MIGRATION MODELING WITH GIS

MULTIAGENT MODELING AND PROGNOZING OF MARKET PROCESSES

SOME METHODOLOGIES FOR RISK EVALUATION IN LARGE

HETEROGENEOUS TECHNICAL SYSTEMS

ANTICIPATORY AGENTS, SCENARIOS APPROACH IN DECISION-

MAKING AND SOME QUANTUM -MECHANICAL ANALOGIES.

SOCIAL INFORMATICS – NEW EDUCATIONAL DISCIPLINE

SYNERGETICS OF SOCIAL SYSTEMS

GIS (GEOINFORMATION SYSTEMS)

Main Classes of Models (1)

1. System Dynamics

2. Econometrical and algebraic

3. Discrete time models

4. Ordinary differential equations

5. Partial differential equations

6. Markov’s chains

7. Stochastic equations

8. Active Brownian particles

Main Classes of Models (2)

9. Associative memory

10. Cellular automata

11. Multi-agent models

12. Networks structures approach

13. Econophysics

14. Sociophysics

15. Kinetic equations

16. Future developments

Examples of problems in social

modeling (1)

Global

Sustainable development

Examples of problems in social

system modeling (2)

State (country) scales

Examples of problems of social

system modeling (3)

City

Examples of problems of social

systems modeling (3)

Small groups of peoples

Organizations