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General Meeting #13 November 29, 2011

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General Meeting #13. November 29, 2011. Agenda. Question of the Day Market Overview Portfolio Overview Thinking About Markets Team Stock Pitches Membership Voting Announcements. Market Overview. Stock Acquisition. Independent energy company Exploration, development and production - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: General Meeting #13

General Meeting #13

November 29, 2011

Page 2: General Meeting #13

Agenda

• Question of the Day• Market Overview• Portfolio Overview• Thinking About Markets• Team Stock Pitches• Membership Voting• Announcements

Page 3: General Meeting #13

Market Overview

Page 4: General Meeting #13
Page 5: General Meeting #13

Stock Acquisition

• Independent energy company

• Exploration, development and production

– Natural gas

– Crude oil

– Natural gas liquids

• Acquired 5 shares at $90.59 per share

Apache Corporation (NYSE: APA)

Page 6: General Meeting #13

Portfolio Overview

Page 7: General Meeting #13

Historical Yields

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

1871

.01

1873

.02

1875

.03

1877

.04

1879

.05

1881

.06

1883

.07

1885

.08

1887

.09

1889

.118

91.1

118

93.1

218

96.0

118

98.0

219

00.0

319

02.0

419

04.0

519

06.0

619

08.0

719

10.0

819

12.0

919

14.1

1916

.11

1918

.12

1921

.01

1923

.02

1925

.03

1927

.04

1929

.05

1931

.06

1933

.07

1935

.08

1937

.09

1939

.119

41.1

119

43.1

219

46.0

119

48.0

219

50.0

319

52.0

419

54.0

519

56.0

619

58.0

719

60.0

819

62.0

919

64.1

1966

.11

1968

.12

1971

.01

1973

.02

1975

.03

1977

.04

1979

.05

1981

.06

1983

.07

1985

.08

1987

.09

1989

.119

91.1

119

93.1

219

96.0

119

98.0

220

00.0

320

02.0

420

04.0

520

06.0

620

08.0

720

10.0

8

Earnings and Bond Yields Since 1871

SPY Earnings Yield 1/CAPE

Interest Rate (%)

Earnings Yield

Page 8: General Meeting #13

Cyclically Adjusted

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

1871

.01

1873

.02

1875

.03

1877

.04

1879

.05

1881

.06

1883

.07

1885

.08

1887

.09

1889

.118

91.1

118

93.1

218

96.0

118

98.0

219

00.0

319

02.0

419

04.0

519

06.0

619

08.0

719

10.0

819

12.0

919

14.1

1916

.11

1918

.12

1921

.01

1923

.02

1925

.03

1927

.04

1929

.05

1931

.06

1933

.07

1935

.08

1937

.09

1939

.119

41.1

119

43.1

219

46.0

119

48.0

219

50.0

319

52.0

419

54.0

519

56.0

619

58.0

719

60.0

819

62.0

919

64.1

1966

.11

1968

.12

1971

.01

1973

.02

1975

.03

1977

.04

1979

.05

1981

.06

1983

.07

1985

.08

1987

.09

1989

.119

91.1

119

93.1

219

96.0

119

98.0

220

00.0

320

02.0

420

04.0

520

06.0

620

08.0

720

10.0

8

Earnings and Bond Yields Since 1871

SPY Earnings Yield 1/CAPE

Interest Rate (%)

Earnings Yield

Page 9: General Meeting #13

Spread

-10.0000%

-5.0000%

0.0000%

5.0000%

10.0000%

15.0000%

20.0000%

1881

.01

1883

.02

1885

.03

1887

.04

1889

.05

1891

.06

1893

.07

1895

.08

1897

.09

1899

.119

01.1

119

03.1

219

06.0

119

08.0

219

10.0

319

12.0

419

14.0

519

16.0

619

18.0

719

20.0

819

22.0

919

24.1

1926

.11

1928

.12

1931

.01

1933

.02

1935

.03

1937

.04

1939

.05

1941

.06

1943

.07

1945

.08

1947

.09

1949

.119

51.1

119

53.1

219

56.0

119

58.0

219

60.0

319

62.0

419

64.0

519

66.0

619

68.0

719

70.0

819

72.0

919

74.1

1976

.11

1978

.12

1981

.01

1983

.02

1985

.03

1987

.04

1989

.05

1991

.06

1993

.07

1995

.08

1997

.09

1999

.120

01.1

120

03.1

220

06.0

120

08.0

220

10.0

3

Cyclically Adjusted Spread Since 1881

CA Earnings Spread OverTreasury

Page 10: General Meeting #13

More Recently

Page 11: General Meeting #13

Stock Pitch

Page 12: General Meeting #13

Membership Voting

Is this stock investment grade?

Page 13: General Meeting #13

USIT Social!

• Monday, December 5th 6-8 PM• Gregory Games Room: 3.120• Christmas sweater apparel preferred• Food• White Elephant

– $10 Limit• Minute to win it• Gingerbread house building competition