gehad ujeyl - "flood resilience strategies behind the dikes"
TRANSCRIPT
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FLOOD RESILIENCE STRATEGIES BEHIND THE DIKES
Erik Pasche, Gehad Ujeyl, Jrg Knieling, Mareike Schaerffer
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Flood resilience strategies behind the dikes
Motivation
Consequence of climate change: frequency and intensity of storm eventsand sea level will rise in coastal zones
Increasing risk of flooding for societies living in these areas
Cities along shorelines are in general areas of economic growth which will
further increase their vulnerability for flood events
These factors of steadily increasing flood risk urge for new strategies in
flood risk management
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Flood resilience strategies behind the dikes
Introduction Present Practice in Flood Management
North Sea
Hamburg
Hamburg
Frankfurt
Berlin
Cologne
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Flood resilience strategies behind the dikes
Flood risk due to storm surges in the city of Hamburg
The urban areas which are protected by flood defence structures
host more than 180.000 citizens
and more than 140.000 jobs.
The overall damage totals more than 10 bill.
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Present Practice in Flood Management
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Structural measures currently
under construction
Status Quo: February 2007
already realised
under construction
planning in progress
Polder areas
before planning phase
Wilhelmsburg
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Development Concept Leap over the Elbe
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Metropolis Hamburg Growing City
Urban development focuses on theElbe island Wilhelmsburg
Ongoing investments until 2013
International Construction
Exhibition
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Vulnerability
Flood resilience strategies behind the dikes
Why should we develop alternative strategies, when a ringdike
already exists?
Urban development
Construction activity /
Population growth
Accumulation of assets
Climate change
Dike-raising:- extension, heights?
-required space
-costs
Risk of failure
Higher extreme water levels
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Consequence of missing flood defense strategy behind the dikes
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Consequence of missing flood defense strategy behind the dikes
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Cascading Flood Compartments - CFC-strategy
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Impact of Climate Change
Grossmann, I., Woth, K., von Storch, H. (2006): Localization of
global climate change: Storm surge scenarios for Hamburg in
2030 and 2085, Die Kste, 71, 169-182
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Climate change scenarios, dike overtopping
4,3 mio m 15,1 mio m
2030 2085
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Flood resilience strategies behind the dikes
Resilience strategy of Cascading Flood Compartments (CFC)
4,3 mio m 15,1 mio m
2030 2085
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Adaptations of the existing built environment
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Classification of the building environment
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Efficiency analysis for residential buildings
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Societal Acceptance of Flood resilience strategies
Does the local populationappreciate water-oriented building
and living?
How pronounced is the willingness
to accept constraints in
construction and use?
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Risk perception on Hamburg`s Elbe Island
72,6 % agree, that the danger of
extreme storms increases because of
the climate change
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Risk Perception on Hamburg`s Elbe Island
Half of the interviewed resistents
regard their quarter to be at risk
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Risk Perception on Hamburg`s Elbe Island
Half of the interviewees believe that it is
probable they might be affected
personally by storm surge
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Acceptance of Flood Resilience Strategies
Willingness to adapt is low
Population would keep staying on the island
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Flood resilience strategies behind the dikes
Acceptance of flood resilience strategies
limits concerning the implementation ofalternative settlement concepts
constructional flooding defence measures
may consider the needs of the population to
a greater extent
to enhance the acceptance of water-
related buildings participatory planning is
relevant
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Flood resilience strategies behind the dikes
Conclusion
Resilience strategy of cascading floodcompartments (CFC) needs active
support of the resisdents and
communication processes
An implemenation of CFC reduces the
vulnerability for flooding behind the
dikes significantly
Nevertheless the need for integrativeresilience strategies behind the dike is
very high
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Flood resilience strategies behind the dikes
Thank you for your attention!
Hamburg University of Technology
Institute for River and Coastal Engineering
Gehad Ujeyl