gedo region deyr 2010/11 january 26, 2011 information for better livelihoods food security and...
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![Page 1: Gedo Region Deyr 2010/11 January 26, 2011 Information for Better Livelihoods Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia EUROPEAN COMMISSION Swiss](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e915503460f94b95e50/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Gedo Region
Deyr 2010/11
January 26, 2011
Information for Better Livelihoods
Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit
Somalia
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC
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Deyr 2010/11 Seasonal Assessment Coverage
Field Access and Field Data Locations
Normal access in all livelihood zones and
districts of Gedo region
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Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income
• 2 Agropastoral Livelihoods (Southern Agropastoral and Bay Agropastoral High Potential) Southern Agropastoral are more pastoral than agriculturalists. Main sources of
income: sale of livestock & livestock products, self-employment (fodder and bush products sales); main sources of food: purchase and own production
Gedo Agropastoral High potential are more agriculturalists than pastoralists. Main sources of income: sale of crops, livestock products and labour; main sources of food: own crop production and purchases.
• Riverine Livelihood (Juba riverine pump irrigation) are agriculturalists. Main sources of income: sale of crops and labour; main sources of food: purchase and own crop production.
Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income
• 2 Pastoral Livelihoods (Southern Inland and Dawa Pastoralists) Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock &
livestock products Primary sources of food of poor: purchase and own
production Primary livelihood assets of poor: camel, cattle and
sheep/goat
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Overall statement: Unfavourable climate in the region with below normal rainfall in most livelihoods of the region.
• Start of Season: started on time
• Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Poor rainfall with low intensity and inadequate duration, frequency and amount in the entire region.
• Near average rains received in pockets of the north: Luuq district (Qoroyaale, Haarxoday and Galiya villages) received good rains in 3rd dekad of October (40 – 60% of normal) and 1st dekad of November.
ClimatePerformance of the Deyr 2010/11
Rainfall
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ClimateVegetation Conditions
NDVI LTM Trend Analysis by district/ land cover
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Civil Security Situation:
• Conflict incidents occurred in October at Belethawa town.
• Militia build-up on the other side of the border (Ethiopian side) likely to cause another confrontation
Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition:
• Displacement towards the main villages off the region and Mandera (Kenya).
• Imposed restrictions on trade movement in Gedo, with Belethawa and its surroundings to be most affected.
Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster
Civil Insecurity
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Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Crop Production Estimates
Districts
Deyr 2011 Production in MT
Total Cereal
Deyr 2010/11 as % of Deyr 2009/10
Deyr 2010/11 as % of Deyr
PWA(1995-2009)
Deyr 2010/11 as % of 5-
year average(2005-2009)Maize Sorghum
Baardheere810 810 19% 18% 17%
Belet Xaawo- - 0 - - -
Ceel Waaq- - 0 - - -
Dolow121 - 121 1008% 83% 587%
Garbahaarey/Buur Dhuubo
93 - 93 100% 37% 79%
Luuq177 - 177 104% 41% 179%
Gedo Deyr 2010/11 1,201 0 1,201 26% 22% 24%
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AgricultureRegional Deyr 2010/11 Cereal Production Trends
Deyr Cereal Production
Trends (1995 – 2010)
Annual Cereal Production
Trends (1995 – 2010)
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Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Cash Crop Production Estimates
Districts Livelihood ZoneCowpea Sesame Onion
Production (Mt) Production (Mt) Production (Mt)
Bardere Agro-pastoral 0 0 0
Riverine 30 0 525
Garbaharey Agro-pastoral 0 0 0
Riverine 15 0 270
Luuq Agro-pastoral 0 0 0Riverine 15 0 300
Beled haawo Agro-pastoral 0 0 0
Riverine 5 0 120
Dolow Agro-pastoral 0 0 0Riverine 13 0 300
Sub-totalAgro-pastoral 0 0 0
Riverine 78 0 1,515
Total 78 0 1,515
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AgricultureDeyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos
Good Crop Onion Harvest. Hiloshiid, Bardera, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10
Riverine Labour Availability. Hamare, Dolow , Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. 10
Complete Crop’Failure. Tubaako, Bardhere, Gedo; FSNAU, Dec. 10
Good Maize Crop for Fodder. Bakalarose, Garbaharey, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec . 10
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AgricultureDeyr 2010/11 Local Cereal
Cereal flow : Sorghum comes from Bay, though the supply reduced following the crop failure in Bay region. Maize is supplied from Dolow Adde (Ethiopia side)
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AgricultureRegional Trends in Cereal Prices
Regional Trend in Sorghum Prices
(Bardhere)
Regional Trend in Sorghum Prices
(Luuq)
Factors Influencing Sorghum Prices:
•Sorghum crop failure in all agro pastoral livelihoods of the region
•Reduction of sorghum inflow from Bay region following the sorghum harvest failure.
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AgricultureRegional Trends in Daily Labour Wages
Regional Trend Daily Labour Rate (Bardhere)
Factors Influencing Wage Labour:
• Increased agricultural labour activities in riverine livelihoods as a result of interventions (canal rehabilitation, bush clearance, etc.) from last Gu season
• High inflow of casual labourers from agropastoral zones and neighboring regions (Bay, Bakool) into the riverine areas pushing the labour wages down.
Regional Trend in Daily Labour Rate
(Luuq)
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AgricultureRegional Trends in Terms of Trade (Labour/Cereal)
Regional Trend in
Daily Labour Rate / Sorghum
(Bardhere) : 6 kg/daily wage
Regional Trend in
Daily Labour Rate/ Sorghum
(Luuq): 8 kg/daily wage
Factors Influencing ToT:
• High sorghum prices.
• Decrease in labour wage rates.
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• Deterioration of both pasture and water conditions.
• Abnormal migration of livestock to Juba and Ethiopia (Weeb and Mooyaale)
• Deteriorating livestock body condition, with the exception of camel.
LivestockRangeland Conditions, Water and Livestock Migration
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LivestockDeyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos
Medium Camel Body Condition. Garbahaarey, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. 10.
Empty Communal Water Catchment. Balanbaal, Ceelwaq, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. 10.
Low Water Availability. El-Ma’aw, Garbaharey Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. 10.
Deteriorating Cattle Body Condition. Ceelcade, Garbahaarey, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. 10.
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Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production
RegionConception (Deyr ’10/11)
Calving/ kidding (Deyr ’10/11)
Milk production (Deyr ’10/11)
Expected calving/ kidding Jan – Jun ‘11
Trends in Herd Size (June ‘11)
Livelihoods Livestock Species
Gedo Low to None for all species
Camel: MediumCattle: MediumShoats: Medium
Cattle/Shoats: NoneCamel: Low
Camel: MediumCattle: NoneShoats: None
Southern Inland Pastoral
Camel: Near baseline (95% June11)Cattle: Decreased (25% of BL June 11)Sheep/goats: Decreased (20% of BL, June ‘11)
Southern Agro-pastoral
Same as SIP
Dawa Pastoral Camel: Increased (102% of BL June 11)Cattle: Decreased (21% of BL June ‘11)Sheep/goats: Decreased (23% of BL, June ‘11)
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Livestock
Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices
Regional Trends in Local Quality Goat Prices (Bardhere)
Regional Trends in Local Quality Goat Prices (Luuq)
Factors Influencing L.Goats Prices:
• Poor livestock body conditions
• Low demand on livestock after the end of Hajj period.
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Livestock
Regional Trends in Terms of Trade (Goat/Cereal)
Regional Trends in Terms of Trade between local goat/red sorghum (Bardhere)
Factors Influencing ToT
• High cereal prices
•Decreased livestock prices due to poor body conditions and high supply on the markets.
Regional Trends in Terms of Trade between local goat/red sorghum (Luuq)
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Trends in Imported Commodity Prices
Prices of most imported commodities remained relatively stable in the last six months
Factors Influencing Commercial Import Prices:
• Increased commercial imports after the end of Monsoon season
• Removal of road check-points between Mogadishu and Gedo.
• Improved road accessibility (Mido Road).
Markets
Gedo: Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate
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Region Nutrition Surveys (Oct – Dec 10)
Rapid MUAC Screening (%
<12.5cm)
Health Information System Info
TFC/OTP/SFC
Other relevant information – Key
driving factors
Summary of analysis and
change from Gu 10
Gedo
Gedo PastoralGAM =26.4% SAM =4.4% (3.5% (FSNAU & partners, December’10, R=1)
Gedo RiverineGAM of 26.7% and SAM of 6.0% (FSNAU & partners, December10, R=1)
Gedo Agro-pastoralGAM of 25.3% and SAM of 6.5% (FSNAU & partners, December’10, R=1)
N/A High (>30%) and increasing number of acutely malnourished children reported in all livelihoods in the region( Source: TROCARE, AMA, SRCS , HIRDA HIS Data , September-December10 R=3)
OTP admission show high and increasing trend in the region (TROCARE, HIRDA, AMA- September-December10, R=3)
Aggravating factors-High morbidity with 40.8% of pastoral, 40.5% of agro-pastoral and 39.8% of riverine samples reportedly ill.-Limited access to health services among the rural people due to distance and insecurityPoor household dietary diversity -Reduced milk access -Poor access to sanitation (<20%) facilities and safe water (<15%)-Suboptimal child care/feeding
Mitigating factors-Improved Immunization status (vitamin A and measles) linked to CHD and polio campaign--Rehabilitation of severely malnourished through OTP-Increased income from sale of fodder among riverine communities -Provision of health services by humanitarian organizations
Gedo Pastoral – Very Critical- Deteriorated from Critical phase in Gu10
Gedo Riverine: Very Critical- Deteriorated from Critical phase in Gu10
Gedo Agro-pastoral Very Critical – ‘No change from Gu’10
NutritionSummary of Nutrition Findings
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NutritionNutrition Situation Estimates
Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2011 Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2010
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IPCSummary Progression of Rural IPC Situation
Key IPC Reference Outcomes: North Gedo: Dawa Pastoral - AFLC Watch, 75% P AFLC; Southern Agro-pastoral - 50% P AFLC & 50% P HE, Watch; Riverine – AFLC 50% P), Watch ; South Gedo: Riverine – BFI Watch, Southern Inland Pastoral - BFI with Moderate Risk; Gedo Agropastoral HP- AFLC 50% P AFLC, Watch; Southern Agropastoral - 50% Poor AFLC, Watch
• Acute malnutrition: Very Critical in Riverine, Pastoral and Agropastoral (deterioration from Deyr ’09/10)
• Food Access: In north Gedo: unable to meet 2100 kcal ppp day
• Water Access: inadequate in the hinterland pastoral area.
• Destitution/Displacement: No direct displacement for all rural livelihoods.
• Coping: Deteriorating coping strategies
• Livelihood Assets: Livestock is deteriorating, cattle herd size significantly below BL
Main Contributing Factors:
• Significantly reduced cereal production (22% of PWA) with a complete sorghum failure. • Poor pasture and water access/availability• Decreasing trend for cattle and sheep/goat (< 30% of baseline levels) but sustained camel herds• Decreased livestock reproduction and low milk production• Increased cereal prices and deteriorated terms of trade (6 –8kg of sorghum/daily wage and 40 –42kg of sorghum/goat)• Decreased number of saleable animals and reduced livestock prices • Abnormal livestock migration (towards Juba and Somali State of Ethiopia) and reduced milk availability
MAP 3: LIVELIOOD ZONESMAP 1: IPC, Gu 2010 MAP 2: IPC, Deyr 2010/11
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IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Districts
Gedo - Affected Districts
UNDP 2005 Rural Population
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Gu 2010 Deyr 2010/11
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency
(HE)
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency
(HE)
Baardheere 80,628 0 0 9,000 0
Belet Xaawo 42,392 9,000 1,000 11,000 1,000
Ceel Waaq 15,437 0 0 0 0
Doolow 20,821 5,000 0 5,000 1,000
Garbahaarey/Buur Dhuubo 39,771 4,000 0 10,000 1,000
Luuq 48,027 9,000 1,000 9,000 1,000
SUB-TOTAL 247,076 27,000 2,000 44,000 4,000
TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 29,000 48,000
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IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by
Livelihood Zones
Gedo Region and Affected Livelihood Zones
Estimated Population by
Livelihood Zones
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Gu 2010 Deyr 2010/11
Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis(AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency
(HE)
Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis(AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency
(HE)
Gedo Agro-Pastoral HP 26,607 0 0 9,000 0
Dawa Pastoral 81,654 17,000 0 27,000 0
Juba Pump Irrigated Riverine 31,236 4,000 0 2,000 0
Southern Agro-Pastoral 31,751 6,000 2,000 6,000 4,000
Southern Inland Pastoral 75,828 0 0 0 0
SUB-TOTAL 247,076 27,000 2,000 44,000 4,000
TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 29,000 48,000
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IPCEstimated Urban Population in AFLC & HE by District
District UNDP 2005 Urban Population
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Deyr 10/11
Humanitarian Emergency (HE)
Deyr 10/11
Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban
populationDeyr 10/11
Gedo Baardheere 25,544 8,000 3,000 43Belet Xaawo 13,597 3,000 0 22Ceel Waaq 4,559 1,000 0 22Doolow 5,674 1,000 0 18Garbahaarey/Buur Dhuubo 17,252 5,000 2,000 41Luuq 14,676 3,000 0 20Sub Total 81,302 21,000 5,000 32
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Poor Cattle Condition. Bardheera, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10
LivestockDeyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos
Trucked Water. ElWak, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10
Near Average Camel Body Condition. ElWak, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10
Poor Cattle Body Condition. Luuq, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10
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A crop failure in Agropastoral. Bardheera, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10
AgricultureDeyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos
Maize Crop For Fodder. Luuq, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10
Good Cash Crops. Luuq, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Good Onion Crop. Luuq, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10
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The End