gdpe0786icr- belgium power market outlook sample 1,2,4-10 ... · reference code gdpe0786icr |...

REFERENCE CODE GDPE0786ICR | PUBLICATION DATE JUNE 2015

BELGIUM POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS,

AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

Belgium Power Market Outlook to 2025, Update 2015 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape 2 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.

BELGIUM POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2025, UPDATE 2015 – MARKET TRENDS, REGULATIONS, AND COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

Executive Summary

Belgium’s Power Sector Outlook

In the 2000–2014 period, slow growth in electricity

consumption meant that there was no need for

large-scale capacity additions. Belgium is deeply

integrated into the global economy, and the 2009

global recession and the 2012 eurozone crisis had

a substantial impact on it. Its strong economic

fundamentals allowed it to rally every time, but it

remains vulnerable to global economic volatility. In

the 2000–2014 period, its economy grew at a

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of XX%.

The industrial sector, which consists of the

manufacturing and services sectors, was the

largest contributor to Gross Domestic Product

(GDP) and responsible for most of the electricity

consumption. It was also the sector most affected

by economic volatility. Its slow growth therefore led

to the low growth rate of electricity consumption.

Power Market, Belgium, Gross Domestic Product ($bn) and Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2014

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Ann

ual p

ower

con

sum

ptio

n (T

Wh)

GD

P ($

bn)

GDP (constant prices) Annual power consumption Source: GlobalData; IMF, 2015 TWh: Terawatt hour

The following figure shows the relationship

between annual generation and consumption

between 2000 and 2014. The gap between

generation and consumption has been widening,

causing Belgium to become a net importer of

electricity. Although annual power consumption

decreased from XX TWh to XX TWh, at a negative

CAGR of XX%, generation decreased even more

steeply, at a negative CAGR of XX%, from XX

TWh to XX TWh. The decrease in generation was

chiefly due to the decrease in thermal and nuclear

power generation, which are two important

baseload power generation sources. This may

change in the future, especially from 2025, when

Belgium is scheduled to become completely

nuclear-free. Belgium derives a significant portion

of its annual generation from nuclear power, which

accounted for nearly XX% of generation in 2014,

but will lose this capacity as it retires its nuclear

power assets. GlobalData forecasts that Belgium’s

dependence on renewable power generation will

render it a net importer after 2025.


Table of Contents


1 Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................... 4

1.1 List of Tables ...................................................................................................................... 6

1.2 List of Figures ..................................................................................................................... 8

2 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 9

2.1 GlobalData Report Guidance ............................................................................................ 10

3 Belgium, Power Market, Snapshot ............................................................................................ 11

3.1 Belgium, Power Market, Macro-economic Factors ............................................................ 11

3.2 Belgium, Power Market, Supply Security........................................................................... 13

3.3 Belgium, Power Market, Opportunities .............................................................................. 14

3.4 Belgium, Power Market, Challenges ................................................................................. 14

4 Belgium, Power Market, Market Analysis .................................................................................. 15

4.1 Belgium, Power Market, Supply Structure ......................................................................... 15

4.2 Belgium, Power Market, Key Market Players..................................................................... 16

4.3 Belgium, Power Market, Financial Deals ........................................................................... 17

4.3.1 Deal Volume and Value Analysis, 2004–April 2015 ....................................................... 17

4.3.2 Deals by Type, 2014 ..................................................................................................... 18

4.4 Belgium, Power Market, Demand Structure ...................................................................... 18

4.4.1 Power Consumption by Sector, 2014 ............................................................................ 20

5 Belgium, Power Market, Regulatory Scenario ........................................................................... 22

5.1 Belgium, Power Market, Electricity Policy .......................................................................... 22

5.1.1 Nuclear Policy ............................................................................................................... 22

5.1.2 Green Certificates ......................................................................................................... 23

6 Belgium, Power Market, Capacity and Generation Overview .................................................... 24

6.1 Belgium, Power Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type, 2014 ..................... 24

6.2 Belgium, Power Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity and Annual Power Generation, 2000–2025 ........................................................................................................................ 25


Table of Contents


6.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal Capacity and Annual Thermal Power Generation, 2000–2025 ............................................................................................................................. 28

6.2.2 Cumulative Installed Hydropower Capacity and Annual Hydropower Generation, 2000–2025 ............................................................................................................................. 32

6.2.3 Cumulative Installed Nuclear Capacity and Annual Nuclear Power Generation, 2000–2025 ............................................................................................................................. 35

6.2.4 Cumulative Installed Renewable Capacity and Annual Renewable Power Generation, 2000–2025 ................................................................................................................... 38

7 Belgium, Power Market, Transmission and Distribution Overview ............................................. 42

7.1 Belgium, Power Market, Transmission Overview .............................................................. 42

7.2 Belgium, Power Market, Distribution Overview .................................................................. 43

7.3 Belgium, Power Market, Grid Interconnection ................................................................... 45

7.3.1 Electricity Import and Export Trends, 2000–2014 .......................................................... 45

7.4 Belgium, Power Market, Electricity Trading ....................................................................... 47

8 Belgium, Power Market, Competitive Landscape: Snapshot of Leading Power Generating Companies ............................................................................................................................... 48

8.1 Key Company in the Belgium Power Market: Electrabel S.A. ............................................ 48

8.1.1 Business Description ..................................................................................................... 48

8.1.2 SWOT Overview ........................................................................................................... 49

8.2 Key Company in the Belgium Power Market: EDF Luminus nv/sa ..................................... 53

8.2.1 Business Description ..................................................................................................... 53

8.2.2 SWOT Analysis ............................................................................................................. 54

9 Appendix................................................................................................................................... 57

9.1 Market Definitions ............................................................................................................. 57

9.1.1 Power ............................................................................................................................ 57

9.1.2 Installed Capacity .......................................................................................................... 57

9.1.3 Electricity Generation .................................................................................................... 57

9.1.4 Electricity Consumption ................................................................................................. 57

9.1.5 Thermal Power Plant ..................................................................................................... 57


Table of Contents


9.1.6 Hydropower Plant .......................................................................................................... 57

9.1.7 Nuclear Power............................................................................................................... 57

9.1.8 Renewable Energy Resources ...................................................................................... 58

9.2 Abbreviations .................................................................................................................... 58

9.3 Bibliography ...................................................................................................................... 59

9.4 GlobalData’s Methodology ................................................................................................ 59

9.4.1 Coverage ...................................................................................................................... 59

9.4.2 Secondary Research and Analysis ................................................................................ 59

9.4.3 Primary Research and Analysis..................................................................................... 60

9.5 Disclaimer ......................................................................................................................... 61

1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Power Market, Belgium, Gross Domestic Product ($bn), Population (million), and Annual Power

Consumption (TWh), 2000–2020 ................................................................................................. 13

Table 2: Power Market, Belgium, Market Share of Power Generation Companies (%), 2014 ..................... 16

Table 3: Power Market, Belgium, Annual Deal Value ($bn) and Number of Deals, 2004–April 2015 ........... 18

Table 4: Power Market, Belgium, Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2025..................................... 20

Table 5: Power Market, Belgium, Power Consumption by Sector (%), 2014 ............................................... 21

Table 6: Power Market, Belgium, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type (%), 2014 ........................... 24

Table 7: Power Market, Belgium, Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) and Annual Power Generation (TWh),

2000–2025 .................................................................................................................................. 27

Table 8: Power Market, Belgium, Leading Thermal Power Plants, 2015 .................................................... 29

Table 9: Power Market, Belgium, Cumulative Installed Thermal Capacity (GW) and Annual Thermal Power

Generation (TWh), 2000–2025 .................................................................................................... 31

Table 10: Power Market, Belgium, Leading Hydropower Plants, 2015 ......................................................... 32


Table of Contents


Table 11: Power Market, Belgium, Cumulative Installed Hydropower Capacity (GW) and Annual Hydropower

Generation (TWh), 2000–2025 .................................................................................................... 34

Table 12: Power Market, Belgium, Leading Nuclear Reactors, 2015 ............................................................ 35

Table 13: Power Market, Belgium, Cumulative Installed Nuclear Power Capacity (GW) and Annual Nuclear

Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2025 ......................................................................................... 37

Table 14: Power Market, Belgium, Leading Renewable Power Plants, 2015 ................................................ 39

Table 15: Power Market, Belgium, Cumulative Installed Renewable Power Capacity (GW) and Annual

Renewable Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2025 ....................................................................... 41

Table 16: Power Market, Belgium, Growth in Transmission Line Length (Ckm), 2000–2020 ........................ 43

Table 17: Power Market, Belgium, Growth in Distribution Line Length (Ckm), 2000–2020 ........................... 44

Table 18: Power Market, Belgium, Annual Electricity Imports and Exports (TWh), 2000–2014 ..................... 47

Table 19: Power Market, Belgium, SWOT Profile of Electrabel S.A., 2014 ................................................... 49

Table 20: Power Market, Belgium, SWOT Profile of EDF Luminus nv/sa, 2015 ........................................... 54

Table 21: Abbreviations .............................................................................................................................. 58


Table of Contents


1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: Power Market, Belgium, Gross Domestic Product ($bn), Population (million), and Annual Power

Consumption (TWh), 2000–2020 ................................................................................................. 12

Figure 2: Power Market, Belgium, Market Share of Power Generation Companies (%), 2014 ..................... 16

Figure 3: Power Market, Belgium, Annual Deal Value ($bn) and Number of Deals, 2004–April 2015 ........... 17

Figure 4: Power Market, Belgium, Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2025..................................... 19

Figure 5: Power Market, Belgium, Power Consumption by Sector (%), 2014 ............................................... 21

Figure 6: Power Market, Belgium, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type (%), 2014 ........................... 24

Figure 7: Power Market, Belgium, Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) and Annual Power Generation (TWh),

2000–2025 .................................................................................................................................. 26

Figure 8: Power Market, Belgium, Cumulative Installed Thermal Capacity (GW) and Annual Thermal Power

Generation (TWh), 2000–2025 .................................................................................................... 30

Figure 9: Power Market, Belgium, Cumulative Installed Hydropower Capacity (GW) and Annual Hydropower

Generation (TWh), 2000–2025 .................................................................................................... 33

Figure 10: Power Market, Belgium, Cumulative Installed Nuclear Power Capacity (GW) and Annual Nuclear

Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2025 ......................................................................................... 36

Figure 11: Power Market, Belgium, Cumulative Installed Renewable Power Capacity (GW) and Annual

Renewable Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2025 ....................................................................... 40

Figure 12: Power Market, Belgium, Annual Electricity Imports and Export s(TWh), 2000–2014 ..................... 46



Introduction

2 Introduction

Belgium is a developed country with well-established agricultural, manufacturing and services

sectors. It has a democratic republican form of government, with a presidential system in place. It is

a member of the UN, the G20, the EU and other international organizations.

The economy is liberalized and attracts a large amount of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). One

major advantage is Belgium’s central geographic position in Europe. Belgium has a diversified

transport infrastructure, consisting of ports, canals, railways and highways, which has enabled it to

integrate with other countries. It imports a substantial quantity of raw materials, and exports a large

volume of products. Its major investors are Germany, the Netherlands and France, and it is

endeavoring to strengthen its existing trade relationships with developing nations, including India,

with which it is one of the five leading EU trading partners.

With an estimated Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $XX billion, measured at current prices, GDP

grew by XX% in 2014. The economy was affected by the 2009 global economic recession, which

resulted in banks receiving capital infusions from the government to keep them solvent and the

nationalization of the Franco Belgian Bank (Dexia). Increasing international trade means that the

economy is highly vulnerable to volatility in the world market, which was apparent in 2012 when the

economy displayed a very low growth rate (XX%).

In 2014, the services sector contributed XX% of GDP, followed by the industrial sector with XX%

and the agricultural sector with XX%. Exports were valued at $XX billion, and the major export

items were machinery and equipment, chemicals and metal products (CIA, 2015). Belgium’s

coalmines are no longer economically viable, and it has no fossil fuel reserves. It imports fossil

fuels to meet its energy needs. The use of natural gas has been increasing and will continue to do

so, fueled by the phasing out of nuclear power plants. This has created a problem, because natural

gas resources are not as widely available as coal and supply security is therefore not assured. The

share of imported fossil fuel is high, and the share of energy imports is likely to increase due to the

2003 nuclear phase-out law.

The Commission for the Regulation of Electricity and Gas (CREG) is responsible for overseeing the

electricity sector. Nuclear power is an important source of baseload generation and in 2014

constituted XX% of installed capacity, slightly less than gas, which constituted XX%. Coal and oil



Introduction

together accounted for XX%. The industrial sector, which comprises the manufacturing and

services sectors, is the largest consumer of electricity.

2.1 GlobalData Report Guidance

The executive summary captures the key growth trends in Belgium’s power market.

Chapter three provides a snapshot of the key parameters that affect Belgium’s power sector,

as well as key points about its power market.

Chapter four provides analysis of Belgium’s power market.

Chapter five details the regulatory scenario of the Belgian power market and the inward foreign

investment scenario.

Chapter six provides information on Belgium’s cumulative installed capacity and annual

generation trends, as a whole and by individual generation source.

Chapter seven describes Belgium’s power transmission and distribution infrastructure and

includes information on interconnectors with neighboring countries. The section also covers

electricity imports and exports and upcoming grid-related projects.

Note: All 2014 market figures provided in the report are estimates except where actual data were

available.



Capacity and Generation Overview

6 Belgium, Power Market, Capacity and Generation Overview

6.1 Belgium, Power Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type, 2014

Natural gas dominated the power market in 2014, contributing XX% of total capacity, followed by

nuclear power plants, which accounted for XX%. Renewable power from solar power plants

accounted for XX%. Onshore and offshore wind capacity followed closely with a XX% contribution,

and biopower plants accounted for XX%. Hydropower plants also contributed XX%, while coal- and

oil-based power plants made up the remaining XX%.

Figure 6: Power Market, Belgium, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type (%), 2014

Gas (thermal)

Nuclear

Solar PV

Wind

Biopower

HydropowerThermal (other)

Source: GlobalData, Power Database [Accessed on May 13, 2015]

Table 6: Power Market, Belgium, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type (%), 2014

Fuel type Share

Gas (thermal)

Nuclear

Solar PV

Wind

Biopower

Hydropower

Thermal (other)





6.2 Belgium, Power Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity and Annual Power Generation, 2000–2025

Cumulative installed capacity amounted to XX Gigawatts (GW) in 2000, and increased at a CAGR

of XX% to XX GW in 2014, attributed to the growth in renewable capacity.

During the 2015–2025 period, cumulative installed capacity is expected to grow at a CAGR of XX%

to XX GW. The share held by nuclear power is expected to decline from XX% to XX%, as a result

of the government’s plan to decommission all nuclear power plants by 2025. Renewable power is

expected to increase substantially to XX%, and thermal power is expected to account for XX% of

installed capacity in 2025.

The amount of electricity generated in 2014 amounted to XX TWh, of which nuclear power

accounted for XX%. Thermal power contributed the next highest share, with XX% of total

generation, while renewables accounted for XX% in 2014. The contribution of hydropower was

negligible.

Between 2015 and 2025, electricity generation is expected to increase at a CAGR of XX% to XX

TWh. The share of power generation accounted for by thermal power is expected to increase from

XX% to XX%. The share of renewable power in generation is expected to increase from XX% to

XX%, and nuclear sources will contribute an expected XX% share in 2025, before falling to XX% in

2026.




Figure 7: Power Market, Belgium, Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) and Annual Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2025

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Ann

ual p

ower

gen

erat

ion

(TW

h)

Cum

ulat

ive

inst

alle

d ca

paci

ty (G

W)

Cumulative installed capacity Annual power generation Source: GlobalData, Power Database [Accessed on May 13, 2015]




Table 7: Power Market, Belgium, Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) and Annual Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2025

Year Cumulative installed capacity Annual power generation

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025



Appendix


9 Appendix

9.1 Market Definitions

9.1.1 Power

Power refers to the rate of production, transfer or energy use, usually related to electricity. It is

measured in Watts (W) and often expressed in kilowatts (kW) or Megawatts (MW). It is also known

as real power or active power.

9.1.2 Installed Capacity

Installed capacity refers to the generator’s nameplate capacity as stated by the manufacturer, or

the maximum rated output of a generator under given conditions. It is given in Megawatts (MW) on

a nameplate affixed to the generator.

9.1.3 Electricity Generation

Electricity generation refers to the process of generating electricity from other forms of energy. It

also refers to the amount of electricity produced, expressed in Gigawatt hours (GWh).

9.1.4 Electricity Consumption

Electricity consumption is the sum of electricity generated, plus imports, minus exports and

transmission and distribution losses. It is measured in GWh.

9.1.5 Thermal Power Plant

A thermal power plant is a plant in which turbine generators are driven by burning fossil fuels.

9.1.6 Hydropower Plant

A hydropower plant is a plant in which the turbine generators are driven by falling water.

9.1.7 Nuclear Power

Nuclear power is the energy released from the fission of nuclear fuel in a reactor.


Appendix


9.1.8 Renewable Energy Resources

Renewable energy resources are those that provide energy that is naturally replenished but limited

in the amount of energy available per unit of time. Biomass, geothermal, solar, small hydropower

and wind are examples of renewable resources.

9.2 Abbreviations

Table 21: Abbreviations CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate

CCGT Combined-Cycle Gas Turbine

CIM Continuous Intraday Market

Ckm Circuit kilometer

CREG Commission for the Regulation of Electricity and Gas

CWaPE Walloon Energy Commission (Commission Wallonne pour l'Energie)

DAM Day-Ahead Market

FDI Foreign Direct Investment

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GW Gigawatt

GWh Gigawatt hour

IBGE Brussels Institute for Management of the Environment (Institut Bruxellois pour la Gestion de l’ Environment)

kV kilovolt

MW Megawatt

MWh Megawatt hour

PWR Pressurized Water Reactor

RTE Réseau de Transport d'Électricité

TWh Terawatt hour

VREG Flemish Electricity and Gas Regulator (Vlaamse Regulator van de Elektriciteits en Gasmarkt)

Source: GlobalData


Appendix


9.3 Bibliography

CIA (2015). Belgium: The World Factbook. Central Intelligence Agency, April 30, 2015.

Available from: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/be.html

[Accessed on May 14, 2015]

IMF, 2015. International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2015

[database]. International Monetary Fund. Available at:

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/weodata/weoselco.aspx?g=2001&sg=All+coun

tries [Accessed on May 14, 2015]

WNA (2014). Nuclear Power in Belgium. World Nuclear Association, May 24, 2014. Available

from: http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Country-Profiles/Countries-A-F/Belgium/ [Accessed on

May 14, 2015]

9.4 GlobalData’s Methodology

GlobalData’s dedicated research and analysis teams consist of experienced professionals with

advanced statistical expertise and marketing, market research and consulting backgrounds in the

energy industry.

GlobalData adheres to the codes of practice of the Market Research Society (www.mrs.org.uk) and

Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals (www.scip.org).

All of GlobalData’s databases are continuously updated and revised. The following methodology

has been followed for the collection and analysis of data presented in this report.

9.4.1 Coverage

This report covers Belgium’s power market, examining the market structure and providing historical

generation, capacity and consumption forecasts until 2025. It also looks at the market’s regulatory

structure, import and export trends, competitive landscape and leading active and upcoming power

projects.

9.4.2 Secondary Research and Analysis

The capacity, generation and consumption data is collected and validated using a number of

secondary resources including but not limited to:


Appendix


Government agencies, ministry websites, industry associations, the World Bank, IMF, and

statistical databases

Company websites, annual reports, financial reports, analyst reports and investor

presentations

Industry trade journals, market reports and other literature

GlobalData’s proprietary databases such as the Capacity and Generation Database, Power

Plant Database and Transmission and Distribution Database

Further to this, the following secondary information is collected and analyzed to project Belgium’s

power market scenario to 2025:

Macro-economic scenario

Government regulations, policies and targets

Government and private sector investment

Contract and deal announcements

Utility expansion plans

The sector’s historic track record

Other qualitative insights built through secondary research and analysis of company websites,

annual reports, investor presentations, industry and trade journals, and data from industry

associations

9.4.3 Primary Research and Analysis

Secondary research is further complemented through primary interviews with industry participants

to verify the market numbers obtained through secondary research and obtain first-hand

information on industry trends.

A typical research interview fulfills the following functions:

Obtains the interviewee’s perspective on the market size, growth trends, competitive landscape

and future outlook

Validates secondary research findings


Appendix


Further develop the analysis team’s expertise and market understanding

The participants are drawn from a diverse set of backgrounds, including power producers,

equipment manufacturers, industry associations, government bodies, utilities, distributors, and

academia. The participants include but are not limited to C-level executives, industry consultants,

academic experts, business development and sales managers, purchasing managers, plant

managers, government officials and industry spokespersons.

9.5 Disclaimer

All Rights Reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any

form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior

permission of the publisher, GlobalData.

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