gdaly rivin, inna rozinkina , denis blinov

21.04.23 1WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

COSMO Project CORSO:Consolidation of Operational and Research results for the Sochi Olympics -2014

Status COSMOof 7 km and 2 km models in Russia

Gdaly Rivin, Inna Rozinkina , Denis BlinovHydrometeorological centre of Russia (Roshydromet)

and many of our colleagues

CONTENTS

2WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013

1. PP CORSO

2. Place, grids, observations (D.Kiktev)

3. COSMO-Ru7, COSMO-Ru2, COSMO-Ru1 (M.Shatunova), COSMO-Ru13, Universiade (Kazan, July-August 2013)

4. Snow (E.Kazakova)

5. Data assimilation (D.Blinov)

6. Plans for Oct. 2013 / 2014

21.04.23

The main goal:to enhance and demonstrate the capabilities of COSMO-based systems of short-range numerical weather prediction in winter conditions for mountainous terrain and to assess the effect of practical use of this information during SOCHI-2014 Olympic Games

COSMO - METEOROLOGICAL SUPPORT FOR OLYMPICS “SOCHI-2014”

Participants:Germany, Italy, Switzerland and Russia.


PP CORSO is considered as COSMO contribution into WMO project FROST

21.04.23

5

TASK 1.High resolution COSMO-modeling for mountainous regions (TL G.Rivin)

TASK 2. Downscaling / postprocessing for Sochi area and applications (TL I.Rozinkina)

TASK 3. Development and adaptation of COSMO EPSs for Sochi region TLs E. Astakhova, A. Montani

PP CORSO (Project Leaders: G.Rivin, I.Rozinkina (Roshydromet)

2.1. Adapted down-scaling techniques for winter conditions in the mountains and IOC requirements (FDP)2.2. Determination of typical COSMO-model inaccuracies for typical synoptic situations (RDP)

1.1. Improvement of modeling technology of deterministic forecasting of weather conditions with resolution 2.2.km for the North-Caucasian area (SOCHI-2014) (FDP)

1.2. Development of COSMO-So-1km (RDP)

3.1. Adaptation of COSMO LEPS 7 km to the Sochi region and to specific requirements of winter Olympics. Operational ensemble forecasts during the Trials and Olympics (FDP)

3.2. Development and verification of COSMO-RU-LEPS 2.2 km for the Sochi region (with ICs and BCs from SOCHMEL7) (RDP)

WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013 21.04.23

6

T1. High resolution Modeling and DAS WG1, WG2, WG3a, WG3b, WG6

T2. Postprocessing / Forecast Interpretation WG4, WG5

T3. High resolution EPS WG5, WG7

WG4: PP CORSO

Downscaling for venues and local specific weather conditions

Operational forecasts of meteorological fields

Forecasts of probability of local weather events


CORSO - 18 staff members Roshydromet:

11 - PhD, 6 – postgraduates MSU and HMC, 1 - undergraduates MSU

Task 1 High resolution COSMO-modeling for mountainous regions G.Rivin, Yu.Alferov, D.Blinov, M.Chumakov, E.Kazakova, A.Kirsanov, M.Nikitin, V.Perov, I. Rozinkina, M.Schatunova, E.Kukanova;

Task 2 Downscaling / postprocessing for Sochi area and applications

I. Rozinkina, D.Blinov, A.Bundel, E.Kazakova, V.Kopeikin, A.Muravjov, A.Revokatova, G.Rivin, M.Zaichenko;

Task 3 Development and adaptation of COSMO EPS for Sochi region E.Astakhova, A. Montani, D.Alferov, G.Rivin.


PP CORSOPhase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3

2011 / 2012 2012 / 2013 2013 / 2014 Choice of

strategy Proposals for

development and modification of algorithms

Preliminary tests

• Tests • Pre-operational

running• Feed-back

from forecasters

• Tuning implementation

• Operational runs

• Analysis of results

All algorithms must be implemented very fast, based the previous experience of COSMO-countries (incl. know-how for mountain forecasting)

8WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013 21.04.23

WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013 9

THE MAIN DIFFICULTIES OF THE PP CORSO

1.Complex geographical conditions:• sea - land winter T differences• high mountains near cost• the area of venues is located near boundary snow and/or fractional cover

2.Insufficient density of network of measurements

3.The significant part of winter weather processes is due by the local orography

4.The level of skill of forecasts for T2m and precipitation must be better

5. Computers

21.04.23

Daily 4 times (00, 06, 12, 18 h UTC): • prepares more than 8000 (total for

1 day) weather forecast maps and about 1000 (total for 1 day) meteograms (images)

• sends these maps and meteograms to the weather forecasting offices of Roshydromet

• spreads on a FTP-servers the GRIB and graphical files (about 70 Gb)

Forecast system COSMO-Ru7/2


Two clusters of «Sochi-2014» Olympic venues

Ice sports competitions

Snow sports competitions


Sochi

Adler

Krasnaya Polyana

21.04.23

Grids COSMO-Ru7/Ru2


Sochi

Adler

Krasnaya Polyana

Akhun

Location of the meteorological stations and COSMO-Ru2 (Sochi) model’s grid-points (mountain sector)

(view from SW)


Krasnaya Polyana

Kordon Laura

Aibga

980

1130

1755

1945


GME x = 20 км

COSMO-Ru7 x = 7 km

COSMO-Ru2 x =2.2 км

COSMO-RuSib x =14 км

GME: начальные и граничные данные

21.04.23 WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013 17

Universiade

COSMO-Ru6, , Δt=60 s

COSMO-Ru13 , Δt=120 s

Domain: 900 km * 1000 km Grid: 420*470 * 50 Step: 2.2 кмTime step: 20 cForecast: 24 / 42 h

Domain: 4900 km * 4340 km Grid: 700*620 * 40 Step: 7 kmTime step: 66 cForecast: 78 h

Domain: 5000 km * 3500 km Grid: 360*250 * 40 Step: 14 kmTime step: 80 cForecast: 78 h

Grid: 1 474 562 * 60

Step: 20 kmTime step: 110 s


Domain: 13200 km * 6600 km Grid: 1000*500 * 40 Step: 13.2 kmForecast: 120 hCores: 288

COSMO-Ru13 x =13.2 km

Domain: 13200 km * 6600 km Grid: 2000*1000 * 40 Step: 6.6 kmForecast: 48 / 78 hCores: 288

ETR

SIB

FarEast

Tornado (1536 cores)

Model Cores Time

Sochi-2014, 42 h,

420 х 470 (2.2 km)288 50 min

COSMO-Ru7, 78 h,

700 х 620 (7 km)288 50 min

ENA: EuNorthAsia,

78 h,

1000 х 500 (13.2km)

288 50 min



--06 000 2.50 03.40 Time

DA Ru7DA CFO- Ru2DA SFO- Ru2DA Ru13

Technological line of COSMO-Ru


2013-08-26-00 COSMO-Ru2, Canada: GEM-2.5 and GEM-1

WMO project FROST (PL – Dmitry Kiktev): http://frost2014.meteoinfo.ru

http://frost2014.meteoinfo.ru/


Roza Hutor (1580 m) 2013-08-26-00 COSMO-Ru2, Canada: GEM-2.5 and GEM-1


Krasnaya Polyana (Red Glade) 2013-09-01-12 COSMO-Ru2, COSMO-Ru7 and WRF-NMMB-1


ENA-13 km


COSMO-Ru7


01–28 Feb 2013: Ru7oper, Psea COSMO-Ru7: SFO (Sochi-2014)

RMSE: Средняя квадр. ошибка MAE: Средн.

абс.ошибка ME: Средняя ошибка


01–28 Feb 2013: Ru7oper, T2mCOSMO-Ru7: SFO (Sochi-2014)

RMSE: Средняя квадр. ошибка

MAE: Средн. абс.ошибка ME:

Средняя ошибка

PP CORSOPhase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3

2011 / 2012 2012 / 2013 2013 / 2014 Choice of

strategy Proposals for

development and modification of algorithms

Preliminary tests

• Tests • Pre-operational

running• Feed-back

from forecasters

• Tuning implementation

• Operational runs

• Analysis of results

All algorithms must be implemented very fast, based the previous experience of COSMO-countries (incl. know-how for mountain forecasting)


FDP & RDP CORSO DELIVERABLES1. Increased skill of operational COSMO-Ru7 and COSMO-Ru2 for key

meteorological parameters;

2. Research technology COSMO-Ru1 with horizontal resolution ≈ 1km;3. Operational implementation of tools allowing the forecasting of local weather

conditions in the venues, visualization support, guidelines for forecasters;4. Adapted postprocessing techniques for winter weather conditions in sub-

tropical mountain conditions and satisfying the requirements of the winter Olympics;

5. Recommendations for operational forecasters in using the high-resolution model output with special attention to possible model error spatial and temporal structures for different weather types;

6. Programming tools for object-oriented and multi-scale verification of hydrodynamic mesoscale forecasts

7. RDP: Developed weather types classification approaches, results of case studies for the Sochi2014 region;

8. A COSMO-LEPS system with 7 km resolution adapted to the Sochi region and to specific requirements of winter Olympics (SOCHMEL7). Operational ensemble forecasts during the Olympics. Technology of presentation and interpretation of SOCHMEL7 results in operational mode;

9. COSMO-RU-LEPS 2.2 km for the Sochi region (with ICs and BCs from SOCHMEL7.


Oct. 2013 / 2014

• to improve near-surface (first - T2m) forecasts:- TERRA development- DAS implementation- Snow-cover assimilation

• to increase the model resolution (orographic effects)• to develop the statistical postprocessing with small

training period• to develop the probabilistiс forecasting for significant

weather phenomena



COSMO Project CORSO:Consolidation of Operational and Research results for the Sochi Olympics -2014

Status of 7 km and 2 km models in Russia

Gdaly Rivin, Inna Rozinkina , Denis BlinovHydrometeorological centre of Russia (Roshydromet)

and many of our colleagues

gdaly rivin, inna rozinkina , denis blinov

Documents

development of cosmo

cosmo contribution

verification of cosmo

capabilities of cosmo

cosmo project corso

high resolution cosmomodeling

sochi olympics

olympics sochi