gdae1085mar-europe middle-east and africa solar …photovoltaic market outlook to 2030 – installed...

REFERENCE CODE GDAE1085MAR I PUBLICAT ION DATE FEBRUARY 2014

EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2030 –

INSTALLED CAPACITY, MARKET SIZE, RISK ANALYSIS, MARKET SATURATION AND COMPANY

PROFILES

Europe, Middle East and Africa Solar Photovoltaic Market Outlook to 2030 – Installed Capacity, Market Size, Risk Analysis, Market Saturation and Company Profiles 2 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form.

EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET OUTLOOK TO 2030 – INSTALLED CAPACITY, MARKET SIZE, RISK

ANALYSIS, MARKET SATURATION AND COMPANY PROFILES

Executive Summary

Global Solar Photovoltaic Installed Capacity to Witness Stable Growth until 2020

Solar module installations witnessed immense

growth during the 2006–2013 period, with a Year-

on-Year (Y-o-Y) growth rate in cumulative capacity

of more than XX% each year from 2008 to 2013.

Annual installation increased from XX Gigawatts

(GW) in 2006 to an estimated XX GW in 2013 with

increasing economies of scale, emerging

technologies, and policy-based governmental and

institutional support for the industry. Annual

installation in 2012 was marginally lower compared

with the preceding year because the industry

started to move away from the initial spur and also

due to the reduction or elimination of support from

governments in some key countries. In 2013, an

increase in global annual installation was driven by

China and Japan. Annual installation was XX GW,

which is around XX% of the annual installations in

2012. For the 2013–2025 period, annual

installations are set to stabilize within the range of

XX–XX GW.

The following figure shows the annual and

cumulative capacity of solar modules installed

globally for the 2006–2013 period and the forecast

installations for the 2013–2025 period.

Solar Photovoltaic Module Market, Global, Installed Capacity, 2006–2025

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Y-o-

Y g

row

th ra

te (%

)

Inst

alle

d ca

paci

ty (G

W)

Annual installed capacity Cumulative installed capacity Y-o-Y growth rate Source: GlobalData

European Union Directive to Drive Renewable Growth in Europe

The EU’s directive on renewable energy has set a

target for each member state to increase its

renewable energy share to XX% of gross final

energy consumption by 2020. This can be

achieved through a mixture of renewable energy s

Europe, Middle East and Africa Solar Photovoltaic

Market Outlook Sources. The country’s own

particular policy structure and growth measures for

renewable energy sources will play an important

role in renewable energy development.




Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................... 4

1.1 List of Tables ..................................................................................................................... 12

1.2 List of Figures .................................................................................................................... 17

2 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 20

2.1 Solar Photovoltaic Technology .......................................................................................... 20

2.2 Types of Solar Modules ..................................................................................................... 20

2.2.1 Crystalline Silicon Modules ............................................................................................. 20

2.2.2 Thin-Film Technology ..................................................................................................... 21

2.2.3 New Emerging Solar Photovoltaic Technology ............................................................... 22

2.3 Report Guidance ............................................................................................................... 23

3 Solar Photovoltaic Market Outlook, Global ................................................................................ 24

3.1 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Global, Overview ..................................................................... 24

3.2 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Global, Installed Capacity, 2010–2030 .................................... 25

3.2.1 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Global, Share of Major Countries, 2013–2025 ...................... 27

3.2.2 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Global, End-User Segmentation, 2012–2017 ........................ 29

3.2.3 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Global, Segmentation by Grid Connection, 2012–2017 ........ 31

3.3 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Global, Power Generation, 2010–2030 .................................... 32

3.4 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Global, Average Installation Price, 2010–2015 ........................ 35

3.5 Solar Photovoltaic Module Market, Global, Module Price, 2010–2015 ............................... 37

3.6 Solar Photovoltaic Module Market, Global, Module Market Size, 2010–2015 .................... 39

3.7 Solar Photovoltaic Module Market, Global, Production Share of Major Module

Manufacturers, 2012 and 2013 .......................................................................................... 40




Table of Contents

3.8 Solar Photovoltaic Module Market, Upcoming Technologies.............................................. 45

3.8.1 Rise of Hybrid Offerings in Solar Industry ....................................................................... 45

3.8.2 Hybrid Benefits – Reliability and Efficiency at Least Cost................................................ 46

3.8.3 Concentrated Photovoltaic Technology – A Strong Competitor of Solar Photovoltaic ..... 46

3.8.4 Energy Storage Systems ................................................................................................ 50

4 Solar Photovoltaic Market Outlook, Europe, 2010–2030 ........................................................... 54

4.1 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, Overview .................................................................... 54

4.2 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, Installed Capacity, 2010–2030 ................................... 56

4.2.1 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, Share of Major Countries, 2013–2025 ..................... 59

4.2.2 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, End-User Segmentation, 2012–2017 ...................... 60

4.2.3 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, Segmentation by Grid Connection, 2012–2017 ....... 62

4.3 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, Power Generation, 2010–2030................................... 64

4.4 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, Average Installation Price, 2010–2015 ....................... 66

4.5 Solar Photovoltaic Module Market, Europe, Module Price, 2010–2015 .............................. 68

4.6 Solar Photovoltaic Module Market, Europe, Module Market Size, 2010–2015 ................... 70

4.7 Solar Photovoltaic Module Market, Europe, Production Share of Major Module

Manufacturers, 2012 and 2013 .......................................................................................... 72

4.8 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, Regulation and Policies Impacting Market, 2013 ........ 75

5 Solar Photovoltaic Market Outlook, Africa, 2010–2030 ............................................................. 77

5.1 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Africa, Overview ...................................................................... 77

5.2 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Africa, Installed Capacity, 2010–2030...................................... 77

5.2.1 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Africa, End-User Segmentation, 2012–2017 ......................... 79

5.2.2 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Africa, Segmentation by Grid Connection, 2012–2017.......... 81




Table of Contents

5.3 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Africa, Power Generation, 2010–2030 ..................................... 83

5.4 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Africa, Average Installation Price, 2010–2015 ......................... 84

5.5 Solar Photovoltaic Module Market, Africa, Module Price, 2010–2015 ................................ 86

5.6 Solar Photovoltaic Module Market, Africa, Module Market Size, 2010–2015 ...................... 87

5.7 Solar Photovoltaic Module Market, Africa, Major Module Manufacturers, 2013 .................. 88

5.8 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Africa, Regulation and Policies Impacting Market, 2013 .......... 89

6 Solar Photovoltaic Market Outlook, Middle East........................................................................ 90

6.1 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Middle East, Overview ............................................................. 90

6.2 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Middle East, Installed Capacity, 2010–2030 ............................ 91

6.2.1 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Middle East, Share of Major Countries, 2013–2025 .............. 93

6.2.2 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Middle East, End-User Segmentation, 2012–2017 ............... 95

6.2.3 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Middle East, Segmentation by Grid Connection, 2012–2017 96

6.3 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Middle East, Power Generation, 2010–2030............................ 98

6.4 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Middle East, Average Installation Price, 2010–2015 .............. 100

6.5 Solar Photovoltaic Module Market, Middle East, Module Price, 2010–2015 ..................... 101

6.6 Solar Photovoltaic Module Market, Middle East, Module Market Size, 2010–2015 .......... 103

6.7 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Middle East, Regulation and Policies Impacting Market, 2013 .....

..................................................................................................................................... 105

7 Solar Photovoltaic Market Outlook, Saudi Arabia, 2010–2030 ................................................ 106

7.1 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Saudi Arabia, Overview ......................................................... 106

7.2 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Saudi Arabia, Installed Capacity, 2010–2030 ........................ 107

7.2.1 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Saudi Arabia, End-User Segmentation, 2012–2017 ............ 108




Table of Contents

7.2.2 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Saudi Arabia, Segmentation by Grid Connection, 2012–2017

.................................................................................................................................... 110

7.3 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Saudi Arabia, Power Generation, 2010–2030 ........................ 112

7.4 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Saudi Arabia, Average Installation Price, 2010–2015 ............ 114

7.5 Solar Photovoltaic Module Market, Saudi Arabia, Module Price, 2010–2015 ................... 116

7.6 Solar Photovoltaic Module Market, Saudi Arabia, Module Market Size, 2011–2015 ........ 117

7.7 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Saudi Arabia, Regulation and Policies Impacting Market, 2013 ...

..................................................................................................................................... 118

8 Solar Photovoltaic Market Outlook, UAE, 2010–2030 ............................................................. 120

8.1 Solar Photovoltaic Market, UAE, Overview ...................................................................... 120

8.2 Solar Photovoltaic Market, UAE, Installed Capacity, 2010–2030 ..................................... 121

8.2.1 Solar Photovoltaic Market, UAE, End-User Segmentation, 2012–2017 ......................... 122

8.2.2 Solar Photovoltaic Market, UAE, Segmentation by Grid Connection, 2012–2017 ......... 124

8.3 Solar Photovoltaic Market, UAE, Power Generation, 2010–2030 ..................................... 126

8.4 Solar Photovoltaic Market, UAE, Average Installation Price, 2010–2015 ......................... 128

8.5 Solar Photovoltaic Module Market, UAE, Module Price, 2010–2015 ................................ 130

8.6 Solar Photovoltaic Module Market, UAE, Module Market Size, 2010–2015 ..................... 131

8.7 Solar Photovoltaic Market, UAE, Regulation and Policies Impacting Market, 2013 .......... 132

8.7.1 Renewable Energy Deployment Strategy ..................................................................... 132

8.7.2 National Renewable Energy Resource Assessment and Mapping ................................ 132

8.7.3 Solar Water Heating Regulation .................................................................................... 132

8.7.4 Overseas Renewable Energy Development Assistance Program ................................. 133

9 Competitiveness of Solar Photovoltaic against Other Power Sources ..................................... 134




Table of Contents

9.1 Renewable Power Market, Global, LCOE Comparison of Power-Generating Sources, 2013 .

..................................................................................................................................... 134

9.2 Solar Photovoltaic vs. Emerging Fuel Sources ................................................................ 136

9.2.1 Shale Gas in the US ..................................................................................................... 136

9.2.2 Shale Gas in China ....................................................................................................... 139

9.3 Global Solar Photovoltaic Market and Effect of Oil Price .................................................. 140

9.4 Nuclear Zero and Possible Solar Growth ......................................................................... 141

9.4.1 US Market..................................................................................................................... 142

9.4.2 France, No Nuclear Zero .............................................................................................. 143

9.4.3 Germany ....................................................................................................................... 143

9.4.4 Government Subsidies ................................................................................................. 146

9.5 Cost Competition, C-Si Panel Dumping ........................................................................... 147

9.6 Solar Photovoltaic Market, US, Dumping and Anti-dumping ............................................ 149

9.7 Europe, Dumping and Anti-dumping ................................................................................ 151

9.8 Other Countries, Dumping and Anti-dumping .................................................................. 153

10 Solar Photovoltaic – Risk Analysis .......................................................................................... 154

10.1 Solar Photovoltaic Module Performance – 20-Year Warranty .......................................... 154

10.2 Solar Photovoltaic Module Performance Directly Impacts Project Cash Flow .................. 154

10.3 Key Players Offering Limited Warranties to Create Demand and Gain Creditability ......... 154

10.4 Thin-Film has a Higher Performance Risk ....................................................................... 155

10.5 Solar Photovoltaic Module Performance has a Historically Proven Record ...................... 155

10.6 Established Players and Developed Markets have Lower Performance Risk ................... 156

10.7 Fine Print is Important Even if the Product is under Warranty .......................................... 156




Table of Contents

11 Solar Photovoltaic Market Saturation ...................................................................................... 157

11.1 Saturation for Solar Sub-technology ................................................................................ 157

11.1.1 Solar Module Price Saturation ...................................................................................... 157

11.1.2 Solar Module Efficiency Saturation ............................................................................... 159

11.1.3 Solar Module Efficiency-to-Price Ratio .......................................................................... 159

11.2 Saturation in Key Solar Photovoltaic Market .................................................................... 160

11.2.1 Europe .......................................................................................................................... 160

11.2.2 Americas ...................................................................................................................... 161

11.2.3 Asia-Pacific ................................................................................................................... 161

11.2.4 Middle East and Africa .................................................................................................. 161

11.3 Is the Photovoltaic Market Sustainable? .......................................................................... 163

11.3.1 Commercial and Eco-sustainability of Solar Photovoltaic Market .................................. 163

12 Solar Photovoltaic Market Outlook, Company Profiles ............................................................ 165

12.1 Hanergy Holding Group Ltd, Company Review................................................................ 165

12.1.1 Company Overview ...................................................................................................... 165

12.1.2 Hanergy Holding Group Ltd, Solar Business ................................................................. 165

12.1.3 Hanergy Holding Group Ltd, Business Strategy ............................................................ 167

12.2 Yingli Green Energy Holding Company Limited ............................................................... 168


12.2.2 Yingli Green Energy Holding Company Limited, Business Description ......................... 168

12.2.3 Yingli Green Energy Holding Company Limited – Corporate Strategy........................... 170

12.3 Solar Frontier KK, Company Profile ................................................................................. 171





Table of Contents

12.3.2 Solar Frontier KK, Business Description ....................................................................... 171

12.3.3 Solar Frontier KK, Corporate Strategy .......................................................................... 173

12.4 TSMC Solar Ltd, Company Review ................................................................................. 173


12.4.2 TSMC Solar Ltd, Corporate Strategy ............................................................................ 174

12.5 Hanwha Q Cells GmbH, Company Review ...................................................................... 174


12.5.2 Hanwha Q Cells GmbH, Solar Business ....................................................................... 174

12.5.3 Hanwha Q Cells GmbH, Business Strategy .................................................................. 175

12.6 Avancis GmbH & Co. KG, Company Profile ..................................................................... 176


12.6.2 Avancis GmbH & Co. KG, Solar Business .................................................................... 177

12.6.3 Avancis GmbH & Co. KG, Business Strategy ............................................................... 177

12.7 Ascent Solar Technologies Inc., Company Review .......................................................... 178


12.7.2 Ascent Solar Technologies Inc., Solar Business ........................................................... 178

12.7.3 Ascent Solar Technologies Inc., Business Strategy ...................................................... 179

12.8 First Solar Inc., Company Review .................................................................................... 180


12.8.2 First Solar Inc., Solar Business ..................................................................................... 180

12.8.3 First Solar Inc., Business Strategy ................................................................................ 182

12.9 Sharp Corporation, Company Review .............................................................................. 185





Table of Contents

12.9.2 Sharp Corporation – Solar Business ............................................................................. 185

12.9.3 Sharp Corporation, Business Strategy .......................................................................... 186

13 Appendix................................................................................................................................. 187

13.1 Abbreviations ................................................................................................................... 187

13.2 Bibliography ..................................................................................................................... 189

13.3 Market Definitions ............................................................................................................ 191

13.4 Methodology .................................................................................................................... 191

13.4.1 Coverage ...................................................................................................................... 191

13.4.2 Secondary Research .................................................................................................... 192

13.4.3 Primary Research ......................................................................................................... 192

13.4.4 Assumptions ................................................................................................................. 193

13.5 Disclaimer........................................................................................................................ 193




Table of Contents

1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Global, Installed Capacity, 2010–2030 .................................................... 27

Table 2: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Global, Share of Major Countries (%), 2013–2025 .................................. 28

Table 3: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Global, End-User Segmentation (%), 2012–2017 .................................... 30

Table 4: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Global, End-User Segmentation (GW), 2012–2017 ................................. 30

Table 5: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Global, Segmentation by Grid Connection (%), 2012–2017 ..................... 32

Table 6: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Global, Power Generation (TWh), 2010–2030 ......................................... 34

Table 7: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Global, Share and Growth Rate of Power Generation, 2010–2025 .......... 35

Table 8: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Global, Average Installation Price ($/W), 2010–2015 .............................. 36

Table 9: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Global, Average Module Price ($/W), 2010–2015 .................................... 38

Table 10: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Global, Module Market Size, 2010–2015 ............................................... 40

Table 11: Solar Photovoltaic Module Market, Global, Production Share of Major Crystalline Module

Manufacturers (%), 2012 and 2013 ................................................................................................ 42

Table 12: Solar Photovoltaic Module Market, Global, Production Share of Major Thin-Film Module


Table 13: Solar Photovoltaic Module Market, Global, Production of Major Solar Photovoltaic Module

Manufacturers (GW), 2012 ............................................................................................................. 44

Table 14: Solar Photovoltaic Module Market, Hybrid Offerings, 1998–2007 .................................................... 45

Table 15: High Concentrated Photovoltaic, Global, System Efficiency (%), 2006–2020 .................................. 50

Table 16: Energy Storage Technologies, Power Subsystem Cost and Efficiency , 2013 ................................. 52

Table 17: Subsystem Cost, Power Vs Energy Storage, 2013 ......................................................................... 53

Table 18: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, Installed Capacity, 2010–2030 ................................................. 58

Table 19: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, Installed Capacity (%), 2013–2025 .......................................... 60

Table 20: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, End-User Segmentation (%), 2012–2017 ................................. 61

Table 21: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, End-User Segmentation (GW), 2012–2017 .............................. 62




Table of Contents

Table 22: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, Segmentation by Grid Connection (%), 2012–2017 .................. 63

Table 23: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, Power Generation (TWh), 2010–2030...................................... 65

Table 24: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, Share and Growth Rate of Power Generation, 2010–2025 ....... 66

Table 25: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, Average Installation Price by Country ($/W), 2010–2015 .......... 67

Table 26: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, Average Installation Price ($/W), 2010–2015 ........................... 68

Table 27: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, Average Module Price ($/W), 2010–2015 ................................. 69

Table 28: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, Module Market Size by Country ($bn), 2010–2015 ................... 71

Table 29: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, Module Market Size ($bn), 2010–2015 .................................... 71

Table 30: Solar Photovoltaic Module Market, Europe, Production Share of Major Crystalline Module


Table 31: Solar Photovoltaic Module Market, Europe, Production Share of Major Thin-Film Module


Table 32: Solar Photovoltaic Module Market, Europe, Production of Major Solar Photovoltaic Module

Manufacturers (MW), 2012 ............................................................................................................. 74

Table 33: Renewable Energy Market, Europe, Major Policy Instruments Supporting Renewable Energy

Industry, 2013 ................................................................................................................................ 76

Table 34: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Africa, Installed Capacity, 2010–2030 ................................................... 79

Table 35: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Africa, End-User Share (%), 2012–2017 ............................................... 80

Table 36: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Africa, End-User Segmentation (MW), 2012–2017 ................................ 81

Table 37: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Africa, Share by Grid Connection (%), 2012–2017 ................................ 82

Table 38: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Africa, Power Generation (GWh), 2010–2030 ....................................... 84

Table 39: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Africa, Average Installation Price ($/W), 2010–2015 .............................. 85

Table 40: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Africa, Average Module Price ($/W), 2010–2015 ................................... 87

Table 41: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Africa, Module Market Size, 2010–2015 ................................................ 88

Table 42: Renewable Energy Market, Africa, Major Policies Supporting Renewable Energy Industry, 2013 .... 89




Table of Contents

Table 43: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Middle East, Installed Capacity, 2010–2030 .......................................... 93

Table 44: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Middle East, Installed Capacity (%), 2013–2025.................................... 94

Table 45: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Middle East, End-User Share (%), 2012–2017 ...................................... 96

Table 46: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Middle East, End-User Segmentation (MW), 2012–2017 ....................... 96

Table 47: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Middle East, Share by Grid Connection (%), 2012–2017 ....................... 97

Table 48: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Middle East, Power Generation (TWh), 2010–2030 ............................... 99

Table 49: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Middle East, Average Installation Price by Country ($/W), 2010–2015 . 101

Table 50: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Middle East, Average Installation Price, 2010–2015 ............................ 101

Table 51: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Middle East, Module Price ($/W), 2010–2015...................................... 102

Table 52: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Middle East, Module Market Size by Country ($m), 2010–2015 ........... 104

Table 53: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Middle East, Module Market Size, 2010–2015..................................... 104

Table 54: Renewable Energy Market, Middle East, Major Policies Supporting Renewable Energy Industry,

2013 ............................................................................................................................................ 105

Table 55: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Saudi Arabia, Installed Capacity, 2010–2030 ...................................... 108

Table 56: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Saudi Arabia, End-User Share (%), 2012–2017 .................................. 109

Table 57: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Saudi Arabia, End-User Segmentation (MW), 2012–2017 ................... 110

Table 58: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Saudi Arabia, Share by Grid Connection (%), 2012–2017 ................... 111

Table 59: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Saudi Arabia, Power Generation (TWh), 2010–2030 ........................... 113

Table 60: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Saudi Arabia, Share and Growth Rate of Power Generation, 2010–2025

.................................................................................................................................................... 114

Table 61: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Saudi Arabia, Average Installation Price, 2010–2015 .......................... 115

Table 62: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Saudi Arabia, Module Price ($/W), 2010–2015 .................................... 116

Table 63: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Saudi Arabia, Module Market Size, 2011–2015 ................................... 118

Table 64: Solar Photovoltaic Market, UAE, Installed Capacity, 2010–2030 ................................................... 122

Table 65: Solar Photovoltaic Market, UAE, End-User Share (%), 2012–2017 ............................................... 123




Table of Contents

Table 66: Solar Photovoltaic Market, UAE, End-User Segmentation (MW), 2012–2017 ................................ 124

Table 67: Solar Photovoltaic Market, UAE, Share by Grid Connection (%), 2012–2017 ................................ 125

Table 68: Solar Photovoltaic Market, UAE, Power Generation (TWh), 2010–2030 ........................................ 127

Table 69: Solar Photovoltaic Market, UAE, Share and Growth Rate of Power Generation, 2010–2025 ......... 128

Table 70: Solar Photovoltaic Market, UAE, Average Installation Price ($/W), 2010–2015 ............................. 129

Table 71: Solar Photovoltaic Market, UAE, Module Price ($/W), 2010–2015................................................. 130

Table 72: Solar Photovoltaic Market, UAE, Module Market Size ($m), 2010–2015 ....................................... 131

Table 73: Renewable Power Market, Global, Levelized Cost of Energy of Power-Generating Sources , 2013

.................................................................................................................................................... 134

Table 74: Renewable Power Market, Global, Levelized Cost of Energy of Power-Generating Sources ($/kWh),

2013 ............................................................................................................................................ 136

Table 75: Nuclear Power Market, Germany, Schedules Plant Shutdowns, 2015–2022 ................................. 145

Table 76: Solar Photovoltaic Market, US, Bankrupt and Acquired Solar Photovoltaic Companies, 2009–2012

.................................................................................................................................................... 150

Table 77: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, Bankrupt and Acquired Solar Photovoltaic Companies, 2009–

2012 ............................................................................................................................................ 152

Table 78: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Price Saturation by Sub-technology ($/W), 2013–2018 ....................... 158

Table 79: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Market Share by Technology (%), 2013–2030 ..................................... 160

Table 80: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Market Saturation by Region (MW), 2010–2030 .................................. 162

Table 81: Hanergy Holding Group Ltd, Business Strategy ............................................................................ 167

Table 82: Yingli Green Energy Holding Company Limited, Corporate Strategy ............................................. 170

Table 83: Solar Frontier KK, Corporate Strategy .......................................................................................... 173

Table 84: TSMC Solar Ltd, Corporate Strategy ............................................................................................ 174

Table 85: Hanwha Q Cells GmbH, Business Strategy .................................................................................. 176

Table 86: Avancis GmbH & Co. KG, Business Strategy ............................................................................... 177




Table of Contents

Table 87: Ascent Solar Technologies Inc., Business Strategy ...................................................................... 179

Table 88: First Solar Inc., Business Strategy ................................................................................................ 182

Table 89: Sharp Corporation, Business Strategy .......................................................................................... 186

Table 90: Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................... 187




Table of Contents

1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Global, Installed Capacity and Year-on-Year Growth, 2010–2030 .......... 26

Figure 2: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Global, Share of Major Countries (%), 2013–2025 ................................. 28

Figure 3: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Global, End-User Segmentation (%), 2012–2017 ................................... 29

Figure 4: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Global, Segmentation by Grid Connection (%), 2012–2017 .................... 31

Figure 5: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Global, Power Generation (TWh), 2010–2030........................................ 33

Figure 6: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Global, Average Installation Price ($/W), 2010–2015 ............................. 36

Figure 7: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Global, Module Price ($/W), 2010–2015 ................................................ 38

Figure 8: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Global, Module Market Size ($bn), 2010–2015 ...................................... 39

Figure 9: Solar Photovoltaic Module Market, Global, Production Share of Major Crystalline Module

Manufacturers (%), 2012 and 2013 ............................................................................................. 41

Figure 10: Solar Photovoltaic Module Market, Global, Production Share of Major Thin-Film Module

Manufacturers (%), 2012 and 2013 ............................................................................................. 43

Figure 11: High Concentrated Photovoltaic, Global, System Efficiency (%), 2006–2020 ................................. 49

Figure 12: Energy Storage Technologies, Power Subsystem Cost and Efficiency (%), 2013........................... 51

Figure 13: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, Installed Capacity, 2010–2030 ................................................ 57

Figure 14: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, Share of Major Countries (%), 2013–2025 .............................. 59

Figure 15: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, End-User Segmentation (%), 2012–2017................................ 61

Figure 16: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, Segmentation by Grid Connection (%), 2012–2017................. 63

Figure 17: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, Power Generation (TWh), 2010–2030 .................................... 64

Figure 18: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, Average Installation Price ($/W), 2010–2015 .......................... 67

Figure 19: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, Module Price ($/W), 2010–2015 ............................................. 69

Figure 20: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, Module Market Size ($bn), 2010–2015 ................................... 70

Figure 21: Solar Photovoltaic Module Market, Europe, Production Share of Major Crystalline Module

Manufacturers (%), 2012 and 2013 ............................................................................................... 72




Table of Contents

Figure 22: Solar Photovoltaic Module Market, Europe, Production Share of Major Thin-Film Module

Manufacturers (%), 2012 and 2013 ............................................................................................... 73

Figure 23: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Africa, Installed Capacity, 2010–2030 .................................................. 78

Figure 24: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Africa, End-User Share (%), 2012–2017 .............................................. 80

Figure 25: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Africa, Share by Grid Connection (%), 2012–2017 ............................... 82

Figure 26: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Africa, Power Generation (GWh), 2010–2030 ...................................... 83

Figure 27: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Africa, Average Installation Price ($/W), 2010–2015............................. 85

Figure 28: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Africa, Module Price ($/W), 2010–2015 ................................................ 86

Figure 29: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Africa, Module Market Size ($m), 2010–2015....................................... 87

Figure 30: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Middle East, Installed Capacity, 2010–2030 ......................................... 92

Figure 31: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Middle East, Share of Major Countries (%), 2013–2025 ....................... 94

Figure 32: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Middle East, End-User Share (%), 2012–2017 ..................................... 95

Figure 33: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Middle East, Share by Grid Connection (%), 2012–2017 ...................... 97

Figure 34: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Middle East, Power Generation (TWh), 2010–2030 ............................. 98

Figure 35: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Middle East, Average Installation Price ($/W), 2010–2015 ................. 100

Figure 36: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Middle East, Module Price ($/W), 2010–2015 .................................... 102

Figure 37: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Middle East, Module Market Size ($m), 2010–2015 ........................... 103

Figure 38: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Saudi Arabia, Installed Capacity, 2010–2030 ..................................... 107

Figure 39: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Saudi Arabia, End-User Share (%), 2012–2017 ................................. 109

Figure 40: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Saudi Arabia, Share by Grid Connection (%), 2012–2017 .................. 111

Figure 41: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Saudi Arabia, Power Generation (TWh), 2010–2030 .......................... 112

Figure 42: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Saudi Arabia, Average Installation Price ($/W), 2010–2015................ 115

Figure 43: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Saudi Arabia, Module Price ($/W), 2010–2015 ................................... 116

Figure 44: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Saudi Arabia, Module Market Size ($m), 2011–2015.......................... 117

Figure 45: Solar Photovoltaic Market, UAE, Installed Capacity, 2010–2030 .................................................. 121




Table of Contents

Figure 46: Solar Photovoltaic Market, UAE, End-User Share (%), 2012–2017 .............................................. 123

Figure 47: Solar Photovoltaic Market, UAE, Share by Grid Connection (%), 2012–2017 ............................... 125

Figure 48: Solar Photovoltaic Market, UAE, Power Generation (TWh), 2010–2030....................................... 126

Figure 49: Solar Photovoltaic Market, UAE, Average Installation Price ($/W), 2010–2015 ............................ 129

Figure 50: Solar Photovoltaic Market, UAE, Module Price ($/W), 2010–2015 ............................................... 130

Figure 51: Solar Photovoltaic Market, UAE, Module Market Size ($m), 2010–2015 ...................................... 131

Figure 52: Renewable Power Market, Global, Levelized Cost of Energy of Power-Generating Sources ($/kWh),

2013 ........................................................................................................................................... 135

Figure 53: Shale Gas Market, US, Shale Gas Price ($/mmBtu), 2010–2030 ................................................. 137

Figure 54: Power Generation Market, US, Capacity Addition (GW), 1930–2012 ........................................... 138

Figure 55: Oil Market, Global, Price Projection ($/bbl), 2012–2030 ............................................................... 141

Figure 56: Nuclear Power Market, Germany, Nuclear Decommissioning Rate (GW), 2011–2022 ................. 145

Figure 57: Annual Solar Photovoltaic Market, Global, Government Policy Support’s Impact on Capacity

Addition (GW), 2005–2017 ......................................................................................................... 147

Figure 58: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Module Prices ($/W), 2009–2013 ....................................................... 148

Figure 59: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Price Saturation by Sub-technology ($/W), 2013–2018 ...................... 159




Introduction

2 Introduction

2.1 Solar Photovoltaic Technology

Solar Photovoltaic (PV) technologies convert the energy that is stored in sunlight into electrical

energy. The electrical energy is then supplied either to the electric grid or to the consumer directly.

The conversion is done by photosensitive semiconducting material, which is assembled in the form

of modules, usually referred to as solar PV modules or just solar modules. Since a single module

will produce only a few hundred Watts (W) of electricity, multiple PV modules are usually

connected to form a PV array that can produce greater output. Direct Current (DC) produced from

PV arrays can be used to power equipment and recharge batteries. In order to be grid-connected,

DC needs to be converted into Alternating Current (AC), using specifically designed inverters. A PV

array can be installed on the roof of a building, on the ground, as a building facade, or integrated

into the building itself.

2.2 Types of Solar Modules

2.2.1 Crystalline Silicon Modules

The crystalline Silicon (c-Si) cell was the first generation of PV technology, made from a single

crystal or a polycrystalline wafer of silicon. C-Si cells are combined to form a C-Si solar module.

Monocrystalline silicon cells have a uniform structure and an average wafer thickness of about XX

inches (in) (XX millimeters (mm)). These cells are made from a single silicon crystal and are

therefore uniform in color, ranging from dark blue to black. Monocrystalline cells are the most

efficient solar PV cells, with a high-energy conversion efficiency varying from XX% to XX%.

Polycrystalline PV cells are of an average wafer thickness of XX–XXin (150–200mm) and contain

small crystals arranged in various directions. This type of solar cell is blue in color and lighter than

monocrystalline cells. Polycrystalline PV cells have an efficiency level varying from XX% to XX%.

Despite the high efficiency level of this first-generation PV technology, there remains room for

improvement in the following areas:

Lowering costs

Improving the quality of polysilicon

Reducing metallic impurities, grain boundaries and dislocations




Introduction

2.3 Report Guidance

The report begins with an executive summary that gives a snapshot of the key indicators in the

Europe, Middle-East and Africa solar PV market.

The “Introduction” section provides a brief overview of solar PV module technology and

different types of solar PV modules.

The “Global Solar PV Market Outlook” section discusses an overview of the global market for

solar PV and examines several parameters of the global solar PV market, such as installations,

generation, the average global price of a solar PV module, average installation prices, market

size over the years, global production of C-Si and thin-film modules, major manufacturers and

covers information on upcoming technologies.

Global Solar PV section is followed by Europe, Middle-East and Africa region section and

countries section on UAE and Saudi Arabia. Each of these sections covers information on

installations, generation, the average module price, average installation prices, market size

over the years, global production of C-Si and thin-film modules and regulations related to solar

PV industry.

Sections on Europe, Middle-East and Africa region and countries region are followed by

section on “Competitiveness of solar PV technology” which compares competitiveness

between renewable sources of energy in terms of levelized cost of energy and module cost in

various regions.

“Risk Analysis” section which follows “Competitiveness of solar PV technology” section

evaluates risks of solar PV system over its life span

Section on “Solar Photovoltaic Market Saturation” which follows examines saturation levels and

sustainability of solar PV technology in the future.

The last section is on “Company Profiles” which covers company profiles of some of the major

players in solar PV industry.




Solar PV Market Outlook, Global

3.2.2 Solar Photovoltaic Market, Global, End-User Segmentation, 2012–2017

Globally, the share of the residential sector in the total capacity is expected to range between XX%

and XX%. The share of the commercial sector is expected to range between XX% and XX%, and

the share of utility scale projects is expected to range between XX% and XX%.

The figure below depicts the segmentation, by grid connection, during the 2012–2017 period.

Figure 3: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Global, End-User Segmentation (%), 2012–2017

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Shar

e (%

)

Residential share Commercial share Utility-scale (ground-mounted) share Source: GlobalData




Solar PV Market Outlook, Europe, 2010–2030

4.6 Solar Photovoltaic Module Market, Europe, Module Market Size, 2010–2015

The solar modules market in Europe increased from $XX billion in 2010 to $XX billion in 2011, but

then fell to $XX billion in 2013 due to falling prices. Decreasing annual installations along with the

falling price of crystalline and thin-film modules will combine to reduce the solar PV module market

to $XX billion in 2015.

The following figure shows the solar modules market in Europe for the 2010–2015 period.

Figure 20: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, Module Market Size ($bn), 2010–2015

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Mar

ket s

ize

($bn

)

Germany Italy Rest of Europe Source: GlobalData




Solar PV Market Outlook, Europe, 2010–2030

Table 28: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, Module Market Size by Country ($bn), 2010–2015

Year Europe Germany Italy

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source: GlobalData

Table 29: Solar Photovoltaic Market, Europe, Module Market Size ($bn), 2010–2015 Year Annual shipment (GW) Average module price ($/W) Market size ($bn)

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source: GlobalData




Appendix

13 Appendix

13.1 Abbreviations

Table 90: Abbreviations Abbreviation Expanded form AC Alternating Current A-Si Amorphous Silicon BIPV Building-Integrated Photovoltaics bn billion BoS Balance of Systems C Concentration CAES Compressed Air Energy Storage CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate CCGT Combined-Cycle Gas Turbine CdTe Cadmium Telluride CIGS Copper Indium Gallium Selenide CIS Copper, Indium, Selenium CPV Concentrated photovoltaic C-Si Crystalline Silicon CSP Concentrated Solar Power CUF Capacity Utilization Factor DC Direct Current DEWA Dubai Electricity and Water Authority DR Discount Rate EC European Commission ECRA The Electricity and Co-generation Regulatory Authority EPC Engineering, Procurement and Construction fabs semiconductor fabrication plants FC Fuel Cell FiT Feed-in Tariff FW Flywheel GE General Electric GHG Greenhouse Gas GW Gigawatt GWh Gigawatt hour HCPV High Concentrated Photovoltaic IEC International Electrotechnical Commission ITC Investment Tax Credits JV Joint Venture kg kilogram kW kilowatt kWh Kilowatt hour L-A Lead-Acid




Appendix

lbs pounds LCD Liquid-Crystal Display LCOE Levelized Cost of Energy LCPV Low Concentrated Photovoltaic Li-ion Lithium-Ion m million M&A Mergers and Acquisitions MCPV Medium Concentrated Photovoltaic MCS Microgeneration Certification Scheme mm millimeters

mmBtu million metric British thermal units

MW Megawatt

MWh Megawatt hour

NA Not Available

Na-S Sodium- Sulfur

Ni-Cd Nickel-Cadmium

NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory

O&M Operations and Maintenance

PECVD Plasma Enhanced Chemical Vapor

PHES Pumped Hydro Energy Storage

PSB Polysulfide-Bromide

PTC Production Tax Credits

PV Photovoltaic

R&D Research and Development

RoHS Restriction of Hazardous Substances

SES Supercapacitor Energy Storage

SMES Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage

TWh Terawatt hour

VRF Vanadium Redox Flow

W Watt

Y-o-Y Year-on-Year

Zn-Br Zinc-Bromine

Source: GlobalDats




Appendix

13.2 Bibliography

Bright Star Solar (2013). Life Expectancy of Solar Photovoltaic Panels. Bright Star Solar.

Available from: http://www.brightstarsolar.net/2010/06/life-expectancy-of-solar-photovoltaic-

panels/ [Accessed on November 8, 2013]

CAT (2013). How Long do Solar Electric PV Panels Last? Centre for Alternative Energy

Technology. Available from: http://info.cat.org.uk/questions/pv/life-expectancy-solar-PV-panels.

[Accessed on November 6, 2013]

Channell, J., et al. (2013). Shale & Renewables: A Symbiotic Relationship. Citi Research.

Available from:

https://ir.citi.com/586mD+JRxPXd2OOZC6jt0ZhijqcxXiPTw4Ha0Q9dAjUW0gFnCIUTTA==

[Accessed on November 11, 2013]

EIA (2013a). Annual Energy Outlook 2013. Energy Information Administration. Available from:

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/IF_all.cfm#uscrude [Accessed on November 11, 2013]

EIA (2013b). How Old are U.S. Power Plants? Energy Information Administration. Available

from: http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/article/age_of_elec_gen.cfm [Accessed on November

11, 2013]

EIA (2013c). AEO2013 Early Release Overview. Energy Information Administration. Available

from: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/early_prices.cfm [Accessed on November 11, 2013]

IRENA (2012). Renewable Energy Technologies: Cost Analysis Series – Solar Photovoltaics.

International Renewable Energy Agency. Available from:

http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/RE_Technologies_Cost_Analysis-

SOLAR_PV.pdf

Jordan, D.C. and Kurtz, S.R. (2012). Photovoltaic Degradation Rates — An Analytical Review.

National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Available from:

http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51664.pdf

Montlake, S. (2013). ‘‘Shale Gas Revolution Not Coming to China Anytime Soon’’, Forbes,

January 30, 2013. Available from:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmontlake/2013/10/30/shale-gas-revolution-not-coming-to-

china-anytime-soon/ [Accessed on November 11, 2013]




Appendix

13.3 Market Definitions

Historical period: Before 2013

Base year: 2013

Forecast period: After 2013

Global: The countries included in the GlobalData capacity and generations database. These

countries constitute more than 99% of wind-power capacity in the world.

Others: Countries other than the US, China, India, Germany, Spain and the UK.

13.4 Methodology

GlobalData’s dedicated research and analysis teams consists of experienced professionals with a

pedigree in marketing, market research, consulting background in the energy industry and

advanced statistical expertise.

GlobalData adheres to the codes of practice of the Market Research Society (www.mrs.org.uk) and

the Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals (www.scip.org).

All GlobalData databases are continuously updated and revised. The following research

methodology is followed for all databases and reports.

13.4.1 Coverage

The objective of updating GlobalData coverage is to ensure that it represents the most up to date

vision of the industry possible.

Changes to the industry taxonomy are built on the basis of extensive research of company,

association and competitor sources.

Company coverage is based on three key factors: market capitalization, revenues and media

attention/innovation/ market potential.

The estimated revenues of all major companies, including private and governmental, are gathered

and used to prioritize coverage.

Companies which are making the news, or which are of particular interest due to their innovative

approach are prioritized.




Appendix

GlobalData aims to cover all major news events and deals in the alternative energy industry,

updated on a daily basis.

13.4.2 Secondary Research

The research process begins with exhaustive secondary research on internal and external sources

being carried out to source qualitative and quantitative information relating to each market.

The secondary research sources that are typically referred to include, but are not limited to:

Company websites, annual reports, financial reports, broker reports and investor presentations

Industry trade journals and other literature

Internal and external proprietary databases

National government documents, statistical databases and market reports

News articles, press releases and web-casts specific to the companies operating in the market

13.4.3 Primary Research

GlobalData conducts extensive primary interviews with industry participants and commentators in

order to validate its data and analysis. A typical research interview fulfills the following functions:

It provides first-hand information on the market size, market trends, growth trends, competitive

landscape and future outlook of the relevant market.

It helps in validating and strengthening the secondary research findings.

It further develops the analysis team’s expertise and market understanding.

Primary research involves e-mail interactions, telephonic interviews as well as face-to-face

interviews for each market, category, segment and sub-segment across geographies.

The participants who typically take part in such a process include, but are not limited to:

Industry participants: CEOs, VPs, business development managers, market intelligence

managers and national sales managers

Outside experts: Investment bankers, valuation experts, research analysts and key opinion

leaders specializing in alternative energy industry




Appendix

13.4.4 Assumptions

The installed capacity and power generation values have been extracted from GlobalData’s

proprietary database, which is continuously updated. These updates are made through extensive

primary and secondary research and by contacting several industry associations and government

energy agencies.

Global and country wise average module prices up to mid 2013 were determined through primary

and secondary research. The future module price forecasts until 2020 are made based on the

estimates of silicon prices and the market size globally and in each key country is calculated by

multiplying the module price and the estimated annual additions of each year.

13.5 Disclaimer

All Rights Reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any

form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior

permission of the publisher, GlobalData.

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