gcf2011 a2 jolly.en
TRANSCRIPT
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Global Commodities Forum
31 January - 1 February 2011
Sugar, Fuel Ethanol and Crude Oil
Prices
by
Mr Lindsay Jolly,
Senior Economist
International Sugar Organization
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GLOBAL COMMODITIES FORUM
Sugar, Fuel Ethanol andCrude Oil Prices
Mr Lindsay JollySenior Economist
International Sugar Organization
International Sugar Organization
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International Sugar Organization
VVfor Volatility?for Volatility?
World Sugar PricesWorld Sugar Prices
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International Sugar Organization
VVfor Volatility?for Volatility?
World Sugar PricesWorld Sugar Prices
VVfor Volatility?for Volatility?
Volatility over theVolatility over thepast year the resultpast year the result
of:of:
Supply shortfallsSupply shortfallstied to changingtied to changing
economiceconomic
incentives, weatherincentives, weather
disruptions, anddisruptions, andpolicy inducedpolicy induced
production cyclesproduction cycles
in several majorin several major
Asian sugarAsian sugar
producers.producers.
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Non-traditional
speculators have onlyfinancial motives and nointerest or knowledge ofthe underlying
commodities nor theirdelivery.
I know nothing aboutsugar fundamentalsand Ican prove it!
NewNew --Age Speculators Inc.Age Speculators Inc.
International Sugar Organization
Sugar Price Volatil itySugar Price Volatil ity -- FinancialisationFinancialisation
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W orld Suga r, Crude Oi l and Ethanol Prices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
USD/bbl
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
USD
/m3
Crude Oil - WTI: USD/bbl
ICE No.11 in ethanol equ iv alent USD/m3
International Sugar Organization
Broad correlation between sugar and crude oil.Broad correlation between sugar and crude oil.
But periods of significant disconnect since 2007.But periods of significant disconnect since 2007.
World Sugar and Crude Oil PricesWorld Sugar and Crude Oil Prices
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International Sugar Organization
World Crude Oil, Ethanol and Sugar PricesWorld Crude Oil, Ethanol and Sugar Prices
World Sugar, Crude Oil and Ethanol Prices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
U
SD/bbl
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
USD/m3
Crude Oil - WTI: USD/bbl
Brazil anhydrous pr ice USD/m3US Ethanol price- USD/m3ICE No.11 in ethanol equivalent USD/m3
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International Sugar Organization
Correlation Annual Prices
0.70Brazil
Ethanol
Crude Oil
0.75US EthanolCrude Oil
0.87BrazilianEthanol
Sugar
0.54US EthanolSugar
0.57Crude OilSugar
20012001--20102010
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International Sugar Organization
World Crude Oil, Ethanol and Sugar PricesWorld Crude Oil, Ethanol and Sugar Prices
Past CoPast Co--integration studies show:integration studies show:
A causal chain running from crudeA causal chain running from crudeoil to ethanol and finally to sugaroil to ethanol and finally to sugarprices in Brazil;prices in Brazil;
Increased volatility in crude oilIncreased volatility in crude oilmarkets results in increasedmarkets results in increased
volatility in ethanol marketsvolatility in ethanol markets .. . an increase in ethanol prices. an increase in ethanol prices
volatility also impacts the sugarvolatility also impacts the sugar
market.market.
Wor ld Sugar, Crude Oil and Ethanol Prices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2003
200
4
2005
200
6
2007
200
8
2009
2010
U
SD/bbl
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
U
SD/m3
Crude Oil - WTI: USD/bblBrazil anhydrous price USD/m3
US Ethanol price- USD/m3ICE No.11 in ethanol equivalent USD/m3
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World Fuel EthanolWorld Fuel Ethanol
International Sugar Organization
World Fuel EthanolWorld Fuel Ethanol
World Fuel Ethanol Production
010203040
5060708090
100
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
blnlitres
USA Brazil Other
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Fuel Ethanol
International Sugar Organization
World Fuel EthanolWorld Fuel Ethanol
Fue l Ethano l Prod uc tion ou ts ide Braz il and the
US
01
234
56
India
Thaila
nd
Chin
aEU
Australia
Cana
da
Colo
mbia
G
uatem
ala
Arge
ntin
a
blnlitres
2 008 2 009
2 010 e 2 011f
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International Sugar Organization
Arbitrage windows crucial.Arbitrage windows crucial.
Brazil has lost to the US its position as the most competitiveBrazil has lost to the US its position as the most competitive
supplier to the global trade since November 2009.supplier to the global trade since November 2009.
World Fuel EthanolWorld Fuel EthanolWorld Fuel Ethanol Exports
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
mlnlitres
Other
United States
Europe (including re-exports)
CBI Countries
Brazil
World Fuel Ethanol Imports
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
mlnlitres
Other
EuropeUnited States via CBI
United States duty paid
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International Sugar Organization
Arbitrage Window closes between Brazil and USArbitrage Window closes between Brazil and US
Due to saturated US market as approach E10 blend wall.Due to saturated US market as approach E10 blend wall.
E th a n o l P ric e s : US A a n d B R AZ IL e x p r e s s e d in US D
2 0 0 .0 0
3 0 0 .0 0
4 0 0 .0 0
5 0 0 .0 0
6 0 0 .0 0
7 0 0 .0 0
8 0 0 .0 0
9 0 0 .0 0
1 0 0 0 .0 0
Year
2005
2006
2007
200
8
2009
2010
Pricein
USD
U S C hi c a g o E th a n o lB r a z i l E t h a n o l A n h y d ro u s
World Fuel EthanolWorld Fuel Ethanol
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ETHANOL EU vs Brazil Ethanol P rices e xpre ssed in E UR
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
PriceinEU
R/
EU T2Brazil Anhydrous
Brazil Anhydrous + Tariff
International Sugar Organization Arbitrage Window closes between Brazil and EU.Arbitrage Window closes between Brazil and EU.
World Fuel EthanolWorld Fuel Ethanol
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Ethanol Prices: EU, USA, BRAZIL expressed in USD
20 0
30 0
40 0
50 0
60 0
70 0
80 0
90 0
1000
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Price
inUSD/m
E U Ethanol T2
US Chica go Ethanol
B razil Ethanol Anhyd rous
International Sugar Organization
Arbitrage Window opens between US and the EU.Arbitrage Window opens between US and the EU.
US a more competitive supplier to world market.US a more competitive supplier to world market. US production overcapacity exacerbated by the 10% blend wall.
US Ethanol is moreUS Ethanol is morecompetitive than Braziliancompetitive than Brazilian
EthanolEthanol
World Fuel EthanolWorld Fuel Ethanol
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International Sugar Organization
Fuel Ethanol Prices and DriversFuel Ethanol Prices and Drivers
United States EU Brazil
Case Studies
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International Sugar Organization
United States: blend wall blues
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International Sugar Organization
US: RFS #2
US fuel ethanol production and
consumption
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010e 2011f
consumption Production
Key components of the RFS
0
5
10
15
20
25
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
blngallo
ns
Renewable
Advanced
Cellulosic
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International Sugar Organization
US Fuel EthanolUS Fuel EthanolUS fuel e thanol prices - monthly - USD/gallon
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
S.F.
Chicago
Indianapolis
New York
Houston
Gulf
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International Sugar Organization
United States: Confluence
RINS
Corn vs
Ethanol Prices
Fuel
EthanolPrices
Production
Ethanol demand RFS#2 mandate
EPA Blend Wall
Blend Credit
CapacityUtilisation
BlendingEconomics
RFS#2
ArbitrageWindow
Brazil/EU
RFS#2 carbonfootprint
standards
Gasoline Price
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International Sugar Organization
US Fuel EthanolUS Fuel Ethanol
M onth ly Prices fo r Gasoline VS Ethanol VS Corn 19 98 - 2010
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
YEAR
Gasoline/EthanolPrice
USD/gallon
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Corn-USD/bushell
Etha nol f ob Gulf USD/gallon
Gaso line US Gulf Spot Price (USD/gallon)
Corn Cash Price Mid West (USD/bushel)
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International Sugar Organization
US Fuel EthanolUS Fuel EthanolU n ite d S t a t es : I N D E X E t h a n o l/ G a s o lin e / C o r n
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Ye a r
IndexValu
E th a no l G a s o l in e C o r n G U L F
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Ethanol-Gasoline Price Rela tionships 2005-2010
Index 2002=1
y = 0.2365x + 1.2781
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5
Gasoline Index
Et
hanolIndex
International Sugar Organization
May-July 2006
Feb May 2010
March-June 2005March-June 2005
March-June 2005
March-June 2005
US Fuel EthanolUS Fuel Ethanol
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International Sugar Organization
US Fuel EthanolUS Fuel EthanolMo n th ly Pr ice s for Eth an ol VS Co rn 1998 - 2010
0
0. 5
1
1. 5
2
2. 5
3
3. 5
4
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Y E A R
Gasoline/EthanolP
r
USD/gallon
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Corn-USD/bush
Ethan ol f ob Gulf USD/gallon
Corn Cas h Pric e Mid We st (USD/bu she l)
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Ethanol-Corn Price Relationships 2005-2010
Inde x 2002 = 1.
y = 0.2009x + 1.7858
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3 .5
Cor n Index
E
thanolInde
International Sugar Organization
Jan-July 2005
May-July 2006
US Fuel EthanolUS Fuel Ethanol
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US Fuel Ethanol
International Sugar Organization
United States: RFS#2United States: RFS#2
In addition toIn addition to conventionalconventional biofuelsbiofuels
mandatesmandates (corn and cane ethanol can fulfill(corn and cane ethanol can fulfillthese mandates), there are alsothese mandates), there are alsoadvancedadvancedbiofuelsbiofuels mandatesmandatesdefined in RFS#2defined in RFS#2
Cane ethanol is eligible forCane ethanol is eligible foradvancedadvanced biofuelsbiofuelsmandatemandate, but not corn ethanol., but not corn ethanol.
Means US could be obliged to importMeans US could be obliged to import BrazilianBrazilianethanolethanol , to fulfil l this mandate., to fulfill th is mandate.
Brazilian ethanolBrazilian ethanol could gain a premiumcould gain a premium
compared to corn ethanol.compared to corn ethanol.
BrazilBrazil s cane ethanol also qualifies unders cane ethanol also qualifies underCaliforniaCalifornia s LCFS but corn ethanol may not.s LCFS but corn ethanol may not.
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International Sugar Organization
EU: Fuel Ethanol
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International Sugar Organization
Ethanol productionEthanol productionforecast to reach 5.3forecast to reach 5.3
blnbln litres in 2011 (uplitres in 2011 (up18%).18%). France, GermanyFrance, Germany
and UK will accountand UK will accountfor >50%.for >50%.
EU countriesEU countriesmandating highermandating higher
inclusion. E10 ininclusion. E10 inGermany.Germany.
EU : Consumption and Production
EU Fuel Ethanol Consumption
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
mlnlitres
Imports
Production
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E U F u e l E th a n o l P r ic e
0
2 00
4 00
6 00
8 00
1000
1200
1400
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
T2
FobRotter
E U R / to n n e
U S D / to n n e
International Sugar Organization
EU Fuel EthanolEU Fuel Ethanol
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International Sugar Organization
EU: Confluence
Fuel
EthanolPrices
Production Capacity
Utilisation
Feedstock vs
Ethanol Prices
Fuel EthanolDemand
ArbitrageWindow
Brazil/US
E10 phase-in
Fuel QualityDirective
Member StateNREAPs
RED
REDsustainability
Criteria
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International Sugar Organization
No correlation between EU ethanol and grain prices.No correlation between EU ethanol and grain prices.
EU Fuel EthanolEU Fuel EthanolE U E th a n o l P r ic e a n d F e e d s to c k C o s ts
30 0
35 0
40 0
45 0
50 0
55 0
60 0
65 0
70 0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
fobT
2eth
1 0 0
1 5 0
2 0 0
2 5 0
3 0 0
EUR/tonneFeedWheat(
T2 fob Et hanol
Feed s tock c os t (Whea t )
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International Sugar Organization
Typically a strong correlation between EU and BrazilianTypically a strong correlation between EU and Brazilian
prices. Because EU is a net importer (needs Brazilian/ USprices. Because EU is a net importer (needs Brazilian/ USethanol).ethanol).
EU: Fuel EthanolE U a n d B r a z ilia n E t h a n o l P r ic e s : E U R / m 3
3 0 0
3 5 0
4 0 0
4 5 0
5 0 0
5 5 0
6 0 0
6 5 0
7 0 0
2005
200
6
200
7
2008
200
9
2010
EUT2
Ethanol
0
1 0 0
2 0 0
3 0 0
4 0 0
5 0 0
6 0 0
7 0 0
8 0 0
BrazilianAnhydrousEthan
E U T 2
B r a z i l A n h y d ro us
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International Sugar Organization
Brazil: ethanol - sugar nexus
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International Sugar Organization
.. Bulk of cane.. Bulk of cane
increase wentincrease wentto sugarto sugar
production inproduction in
2009/ 10, but2009/ 10, but
shared betweenshared betweensugar andsugar and
ethanol inethanol in
2010/11.2010/11.
Brazil Fuel Ethanol
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
%
Ethanol Sugar
Brazil: Annual Growth in Sugar and Ethanol Production
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11e
2011/12f
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International Sugar Organization
Brazil: Sustainable Growth?
Brazil: sugarcane production
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
90/91
92/93
94/95
96/97
98/99
00/01
02/03
04/05
06/07
08/09
Mlntonnes
Brazil Sugar and Ethanol Production
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
90/91
92/93
94/95
96/97
98/99
00/01
02/03
04/05
06/07
08/09
mlntonnes
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
blnlitres
Sugar
Ethanol
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Bra z il - E tha no l p rod uction
0 .0
4 .0
8 .0
1 2 . 0
1 6 . 0
2 0 . 0
2 4 . 0
2 8 . 0
3 2 . 0
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11e
2011/12f
b
illionlitr
A nh y d ro u s H y dr o u s T ota l
International Sugar Organization
-
-
Brazil: Expanding FFV Fleet
Sales of ethanol-fueled andflex ifuel vehicles in Braz il
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Unit
s
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International Sugar Organization
Brazil Fuel EthanolBrazil Fuel Ethanol
Brazil - Wholesale ethanol prices, Centre/South
0.000.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.201.40
10/05/2002
10/11/2002
10/05/2003
10/11/2003
10/05/2004
10/11/2004
10/05/2005
10/11/2005
10/05/2006
10/11/2006
10/05/2007
10/11/2007
10/05/2008
10/11/2008
10/05/2009
10/11/2009
10/05/2010
10/11/2010
BRL/litre
hydrous
anhydrous
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International Sugar Organization
Brazi l: Confluence
Hydrous vsGasohol Price
Fuel Ethanol Prices
Fuel Ethanol Demand
Fuel Ethanol
Production
Sugarcane Price
Anhydrous
inclusion limit in
gasohol (25%)
Relative Taxation
CIDEPIS/COFINS
FFV Fleet
Ethanol vs Sugar
Arbitrage Window
US/EU
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International Sugar Organization
Brazil Pump PricesBrazil Pump PricesBrazil: Hydrous Ethanol and Gasohol - Pump Price s
y = 0.1711x + 2.2503
2.40
2.45
2.50
2.55
2.60
2.65
2.70
1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60 1.70 1.80 1.90 2.00 2.10
Hydrous Ethanol
Gasohol
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International Sugar Organization
Brazil Fuel EthanolBrazil Fuel Ethanol
Brazil: Sao P aulo Cane Price Vs Hydrous Ethanol Price
y = 0.0019x + 0.2021
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00 350.00 400.00
BRL/tonne
BRL/litre
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International Sugar Organization
Sugar and Ethanol Prices become delinked.Sugar and Ethanol Prices become delinked.
World Fuel EthanolWorld Fuel EthanolBrazil: Hydrous Ethanol vs Sugar Prices
-
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.0030.00
35.00
07/03/2007
07/06/2007
0
7/09/2007
07/12/2007
07/03/2008
07/06/2008
07/09/2008
07/12/2008
07/03/2009
07/06/2009
07/09/2009
07/12/2009
07/03/2010
07/06/2010
07/09/2010
UScents/lb
Hydrous Ethanol: NY11
EquivalentSugar: NY11
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International Sugar Organization
Understanding the EthanolUnderstanding the Ethanol --Sugar LinkSugar Link
Price Arbitrage crucial to date.Price Arbitrage crucial to date. Brazil : long term most competitive supplier toBrazil : long term most competitive supplier to
the world market.the world market. US and EU Legislation creates significantUS and EU Legislation creates significant
demand for sugar cane ethanol (lower carbondemand for sugar cane ethanol (lower carbonfootprint).footprint).
Brazil is key to the worldBrazil is key to the worlds crude oils crude oil --ethanolethanol --sugar nexus.sugar nexus.
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EthanolEthanol SugarSugar
In Brazil, years of high global sugar prices see aIn Brazil, years of high global sugar prices see alimited reallocation of cane away from ethanol.limited reallocation of cane away from ethanol.
BrazilBrazils expanding FFV fleet makes global sugars expanding FFV fleet makes global sugarsupply potentially more flexible in the short term.supply potentially more flexible in the short term.
World sugar market may have to keepWorld sugar market may have to keepbuying backbuying back
ethanol from Brazilethanol from Brazils FFV fleet.s FFV fleet. Potential for Brazil to destabilise both ethanol andPotential for Brazil to destabilise both ethanol and
sugar markets via supply shock.sugar markets via supply shock.
International Sugar Organization
Understanding the EthanolUnderstanding the Ethanol --Sugar LinkSugar Link
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International Sugar Organization
Broad correlation between sugar, ethanol and crude oil.Broad correlation between sugar, ethanol and crude oil.
But periods of significant disconnect.But periods of significant disconnect.
World Fuel EthanolWorld Fuel EthanolW orld Su gar, Crude Oi l a nd Ethano l Pr ices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
USD/bb
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
USD/m
Crude Oil - WTI: USD/bblBrazil anhydrous price USD/m3
US Ethanol pr ic e- USD/m3ICE No.11 in ethanol equivalent USD/m3
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International Sugar Organization
Sugar Price Volatil itySugar Price Volatil ity
Volatility of M acro influencesVolatility of Macro influences e.ge.g exchange rates.exchange rates. FinancialisationFinancialisation..
Volatility of the fundamental analysis.Volatility of the fundamental analysis. Volatility in perceptions of the market fundamentals.Volatility in perceptions of the market fundamentals. Bull markets and high prices go hand in hand w ith hugeBull markets and high prices go hand in hand w ith huge
volatility?volatility?
World Sugar Production and Consumption - 1984 to 2009
80
90
100
110
120
130140
150
160
170
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
milliontonnes(rawvalu
e)
consumption
production
World Sugar, Crude Oil and Ethanol Prices
0
20
40
60
80
100120
140
160
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
USD/bbl
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
USD/m3
Crude Oil - WTI: USD/bbl
ICENo.11 in ethanol equivalent USD/m3
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International Sugar Organization
Thank You!!
5-8 March 2011:6th ISO/EGYPT Conference, ISIS Island Hotel, Aswan EgyptNew Role for the World Sugar Economy in a Changed Political andEconomic Environment
18 May 2011:5th ISO/DATAGRO New York Sugar and Ethanol ConferenceWaldorf Astoria Hotel, New York
www.isosugar.org