GAME-II Monsoon System Modelling WG

T. Satomura (Kyoto Univ.)

Activity in 2003 #1

• The 2nd workshop on regional climate modeling for monsoon system

– March 4-6, Yokohama, Japan– Organized with FRSGC– 68 participants in total

• 13 invited, 20 from abroad

– 30 oral presentations & 5 posters

Recommendation of 2nd RCM WS

1. Publish the proceedings of WS

2. Prepare a special issue of JMSJ

3. Plan a inter-comparison experiment of model sensitivity to contribute regional climate forecasts of IPCC

4. Arrange a consortium to promote the usage of the ES

Activity in 2003 #2

• Proceedings was published in Aug. 2003 as the GAME Publication No.39

• Preparing a special issue of J. Metor. Soc. Japan– 15 papers were submitted and in the peer r

eview process– the issue will be published in next April

Acitivity Plan in 2004

• Detail is not yet decided but…• 3rd RCM WS will be held

– Feb. 17-20, 2004 at Hawaii Univ.– the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC), the F

RSGC, and the GISP are co-sponsoring

– All presentations will be jointly presented at the International Asian Monsoon Symposium (IAMS)

– Dead line of submission is 15 November

Special Topics of one day discussion in 3rd WS

1. modeling sub-daily variation of clouds and precipitation, and cloud-radiation feedback

2. water cycle and hydrological modeling for monsoon system

3. to facilitate the long-term collaboration and to initiate and coordinate the research initiatives in the community

4. to identify problems and discrepancies in RCMs and modeling approach, and to discuss future directions

2nd RCM WS Photo

Diurnal variation of precipitation

GCM cannot simulate them

Radar observation MAY to JUL 1999

Windward side(western area)

Mountainousregion

Lee side(eastern area)

0 5 10 15 20(LT)

0 5 10 15 20(LT)

reg01reg02reg03

reg05reg06

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(%)

10

20

15

5

(%)

10

20

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reg07

(%)

10

20

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5

0 5 10 15 20(LT)

reg08reg09reg10reg11reg04

In October 1999

Windward side(eastern area)

Mountainousregion

Lee side(western area)

0 5 10 15 20(LT)

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(%)

10

20

15

5

0 5 10 15 20(LT)

(%)

10

20

15

5

reg01reg02reg03reg04

reg05reg06reg07

0 5 10 15 20(LT)

(%)

10

20

15

5

reg08reg09reg10reg11

Numerical Model

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Rainfall trends in Thailand (1951-1994)

Kanae et al.(2001),

J. of Hydromet.

-TObserved trends

Simulated change with deforestation condition by RAMS

Both Obs. and Simulated change show remarkble decrease of rainfall in September.

“FOREST”

Experiment

“CURRENT”

Integration Period: April 20 – September 30, 1998

Each ensemble has 5 members

ECMWF for boundary & initials

2 ensembles with IPRC_RegCM

Comparison Changes in modeled Rainfall Changes in observed Rainfall