fuzzy criteria for evaluation of water resources systems ...(el-baroudi and simonovic, 2004-download...
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Fuzzy Criteria for Evaluation of Water Resources Systems Performance
Slobodan P. SimonovicProfessor and Research Chair
Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringInstitute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction
The University of Western Ontario
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
2January 2006
Banda Aceh - before
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
3January 2006
Banda Aceh - after
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
4January 2006
New Orleans before
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
5January 2006
New Orleans after
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
6January 2006
New Orleans - flood
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
7January 2006
New Orleans –dike failure
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
8January 2006
New Orleans – dike failure
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
9January 2006
Katrina help
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
10January 2006
Presentation outline
ChallengesWater resources systems performance
Change of paradigmNew performance measures
A case studyLondon flood protection
Conclusions
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
11January 2006
Challenges
How to reduce the risk to water systems and in the same time obtain the social, environmental and economic benefits from the watershed areas under threat.How to improve our knowledge base
Prediction of hazardous eventsAssessment of risk and vulnerabilityIntegrated use of structural and non-structural protection measuresEnhancement of preparedness
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
12January 2006
Risk definition
Load and resistance conceptLoad l
a variable reflecting the behaviors of the system under certain external conditions of stress or loading
Resistance ra variable that describes the capacity of the system to overcome an external load
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
13January 2006
Risk definition
Failure or an incident
l > r
Safety or reliability
l ≤ r
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
14January 2006
Risk definition
Set of performance measuresRisk/reliability (how often?)Vulnerability (how much?)Resiliency (how long to recover?)Robustness (how able to adopt?)
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
15January 2006
Risk management confusion
Inadequate distinction between three fundamental concepts of risk
Objective risk (real, physical)Subjective risk (degree of belief)Perceived risk (individual’s feeling of fear)
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
16January 2006
Changing paradigm
Probabilistic world
0
1
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
17January 2006
Changing paradigm
Probabilistic world
0
1
Fuzzy world
1
0
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Flood Risk Management Workshop
18January 2006
Changing paradigm
Fuzzy world
1
0
µ - membership function
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Flood Risk Management Workshop
19January 2006
Fuzzy membership shapes
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
20January 2006
New performance measures
New fuzzy measures for system performance evaluation (El-Baroudi and Simonovic, 2004-download from www.slobodansimonovic.com )
Combined fuzzy reliability-vulnerabilityFuzzy robustnessFuzzy resiliency
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
21January 2006
New fuzzy performance measures
Failure
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
22January 2006
New fuzzy performance measuresFuzzy membership function of an acceptable level of performance
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
23January 2006
New fuzzy performance measuresFuzzy membership function of a system state
m or Θ
Fuzz
y m
embe
rshi
p va
lue
1
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
24January 2006
Fuzzy reliability and vulnerability
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
25January 2006
Fuzzy reliability and vulnerability
S,LS,L
S
WOACM =
WA
The compatibility measure
• provides information about system reliability and vulnerability• measure of proximity (overlap)
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
26January 2006
Fuzzy reliability and vulnerability
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
27January 2006
Fuzzy robustness measure
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
28January 2006
Fuzzy resiliency measure
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
29January 2006
Fuzzy resiliency measure
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
30January 2006
London flood protection case study
Use of fuzzy performance measuresSpatial extension of the concept
Calculation of measures at every point in spaceDevelopment of fuzzy performance maps
City of London flood protection
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
31January 2006
London flood protection case study
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
32January 2006
London flood protection case study
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
33January 2006
London flood protection case study
S.P. Simonovic
Flood Risk Management Workshop
34January 2006
Conclusions
Water resources systems are vulnerable to variety of hazardsMain challenge – diversity of uncertainty sourcesProbabilistic approach fails in case of human error, subjectivity, lack of history, etc.A fuzzy system reliability analysis offers an alternative approach