futurism, innovation & wifi · futurism, innovation & wifi networks & comms is too...

Futurism, Innovation & WiFiNetworks & Comms is too Important to Leave to the Telcos

Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis

WiFi Now, The Hague, November 2017

[email protected] @disruptivedean

Dean Bubley & Disruptive Analysis

n Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting since 1991n Futurism, Forecasting & anti-forecastingn Cross-silo, contrarian, independentn Often provocative. Sometimes obscure. Occasionally wrong.

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017November 2017

Network Tech, Policy & Business Models

Communications Apps & Services Telco-Futurism

Key trends for the next 10-15 years


Automation & Robotics Smart Environments AI

New Vehicles & Transport Human Enhancement & Longevity New Dangers & Risks

The carrier / mobile industry has its own trends / squeeze…


Domain-Specificity Democratisation

VerticalsIndoor

IoT & AIOptimisations

WiFi & LPWAMulteFire & CBRSSmall cells & Mesh

Arbitrage

Multiple delivery models for connectivity


Service Owned / Private Amenity Comm-

unity Embed

… and there will be new & unexpected models too


Multiple dimensions for future wireless networks


bpdbps

Gbps

10m

Non-critical

Function-critical

90%99%

99.9%99.99%Long-life

battery

Rechargeable battery

Mains electricity

Generator

Harvested

Power

3DCoverage

Bandwidth

Kbps

ImportanceBusiness-

criticalSafety-critical

Range

<1m

Mbps

And also:Security model

MobilityIntegration

Bi-directionalProtocols etc

1km>10km

100m

4G / 5G / LPWA / Satellite

Managed spectrumWi-Fi

Monocultures give efficiency… but also fragility


Antifragile: “Things that gain from disorder”

AI & Edge-Computing will have huge effects on 5G & Wi-Fi

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017July 2017

Combinations of multiple networks are inevitable


Including a beta of “aggregation mode”

Don’t believe all the “seamless” offload / carrier WiFi hype…


Also: Don’t forget developers as another

important constituency…

… many apps behave differently on WiFi & cellular. OS’s expose

connection APIs

… and don’t believe all the 5G hype, either…


Enhanced Mobile

Broadband

Low-Latency

IoTMassive

M2M / IoT

Enhanced Mobile

BroadbandLow-

Latency IoT

Massive M2M / IoT

Fixed Access(pre-5G)

20202017-8 2019-20 2020-22

5G Use-Cases & Probable Timeline

Changing our assumptions & semantics for 2030


Services Capabilities

Competition Substitution

Harmonisation Diversity

Managed Intelligent

Ubiquitous Tailored

Mono-platforms & ecosystem diversity


image: www.freeimages.co.uk

Monolithic platforms are fragile to external trends

Dedicated spectrum enables limited business models


National MNO licences

B2C Prepay & Post-Paid

SubscriptionsIoT Embedded Wholesale, eg

MVNO

Non-MNO licences

Government eg Public Safety

Few corps, eg utilities, rail

… but completely unlicensed spectrum has limitations too

“National” policies & licenses may not always work


Power station

Car factory

Airport

Oil refinery

Port

Offshore windfarm

Shared Spectrum rules could enable private, regional industrial-grade 5G/WiFi networks for IoT & Industry 4.0 (Perhaps with a blockchain register?)

What are the options for managed, industrial-grade

wireless for industrial use?

Ideally, it needs licensed / controlled spectrum… but

not MNO-type services

Government & cellular groups becoming aware (slowly)


Beyond MNOs: Wireless “service providers” of the future?

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017November 2017 *Disclosure: Disruptive Analysis is an advisor to Ammbr

*

Blockchain options at many network-industry intersections


Data Integrity

Micropayments

Identity

Smart contracts

etc

etc

etc

etc

NetworkRoam & w/sale

Billing / OSS WiFi IoT

ServicesSpectrum

etcetc

What might 2030 mean for innovation, WiFi & spectrum?

n Network “monoculture” vs “diversity”n Industrial networks IoT bring unique requirementsn Privately-managed wireless (licensed-band WiFi?)n Revisit the definition of “services”, telcos & SPsn Spectrum-sharing becomes mainstreamn AI will have profound & unexpected impactsn Many tech pathways for any “outcome”


WiFi has a critical role – but it needs advocacy & vision

www.disruptive-analysis.comdisruptivewireless.blogspot.com@disruptivedean

[email protected]

Skype:disruptiveanalysisappear.in/disruptiveanalysis


futurism, innovation & wifi · futurism, innovation & wifi networks & comms is too...

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