futurism, innovation & wifi - amazon web services · futurism, innovation & wifi networks...
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Futurism, Innovation & WiFiNetworks & Comms is too Important to Leave to the Telcos
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
WiFi Now Washington DC, April 2017
[email protected] @disruptivedean
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Dean Bubley & Disruptive Analysis
n Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting since 1991n Futurism, Forecasting & anti-forecastingn Cross-silo, contrarian, independentn Often provocative. Sometimes obscure. Occasionally wrong.
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017April 2017
Network Tech, Policy & Business Models
Communications Apps & Services Telco-Futurism
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What is a network/comms service provider?
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MNOMVNO
TowerCoWISP
RoamingCar-SP
Private MNOPS-OrgSliceNOeSIM SP
Fixed telco Cable MSO
Biz. MSPAltNet
Fix-Wireless WholesaleFibreCoSD-WANSec-aaS
Community
Mobile Fixed
BroadcastSatellite
ISP/HostingVenueSP
cPaaSIndustrySP
CDNCall CtrSaaS
IoT-SP
Other
What is a “service”?
Subscription basis?
Service vs. feature?
Substitution risks?
Infrastructure?
Boundary with software?
Uncertainties
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The central dilemma at the heart of telecoms
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Manage / slice / virtualise /
optimise onenetwork & add
in-path features
Bond / broker multiple
networks & put features at edge or in
the cloud
Open OS’s, developers, AI & unlicensed / shared spectrum
push in this direction
SD-WANMulti-IMSIMulti-SIM
3rd party WiFiDual radiosMesh/D2D
NFVMEC
Network slicingContention Mgmt
WiFi offloadQoS
Standards bodies, industry alliances, operator internal
politics push in this direction
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Is the “Network Establishment” over-reaching?
Is Telecoms (& WiFi) too important to leave up to Telcos?Is there too much “closed” control-freakery?
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Consumer, business & social trends forward to 2030….
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Futurist narratives applied to networks assume too muchIoT = connected everything! Robots, cities, self-driving cars, homes, wearables, factories, AR/VR, drones, 5G
Data traffic exponential. Single standard, more capacity, managed QoS, NFV & ultra-low latency
Faster/denser connectivity services, inclusion, more subscribers, some wholesale relationships & sharing
Govt wins big license fees, efficient market from peers competing, economy benefits from IoT-led productivity
Therefore, lots more mobile spectrum needed, in conveniently-large slices, primarily for national MNOs
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Assumptions
Assumptions
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Changing our assumptions & semantics for 2030
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Services Capabilities
Competition Substitution
Harmonisation Diversity
Managed Intelligent
Ubiquitous Tailored
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Monocultures give efficiency… but also fragility
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Antifragile: “Things that gain from disorder”
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Mono-platforms & ecosystem diversity
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image: www.freeimages.co.uk
Monolithic platforms are fragile to external trends
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Arbitrage is everywhere & it will be accelerated by AI
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Example 1: eSIM vs. multi-SIM vs. multi-IMSI vs. MNC codes etcExample 2: WiFi vs. Bluetooth vs. ZigBee vs. Data-Over-Sound for Short Range
Example 3: Videoconferencing vs. collaboration app vs. other comms
Dangerous to be religious about any one solution / standard
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Wireless “service providers” of the future?
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IIoT & Industry 4.0 has many domain-specific requirements
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“National” policies & licenses may not always work
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Power station
Car factory
Airport
Oil refinery
Port
Offshore windfarm
Shared Spectrum rules could enable private, regional industrial-grade 5G/WiFi networks for IoT & Industry 4.0 (Perhaps with a blockchain register?)
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Innovation from orthogonal trends in society & business
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What do all these technologies have in common?
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Words matter. Choose them wisely.
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Opportunity & value arises at tech intersections
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Anal
ytic
s &
Mac
hine
lear
ning
Wea
rabl
es &
fu
ture
wel
lbei
ng
IoT
& se
nsor
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FinT
ech
& Bl
ockc
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Urba
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& sm
art c
ities
Biom
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ch&
hum
an e
nhan
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ent
Wide-Area Access Networks: 5G, FTTx, LPWAN, Sat etc
Local Networks: WiFi, BLE, ZigBee, V2V
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Pervasive AI will deeply impact network demand & supply
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Least-cost routing
Energy Management
Quasi-QoS
Multiple variables
Autonomous & Offline
Path Optimisation
Capacity Planning
IoT data management
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Blockchain options at many network-industry intersections
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Data Integrity
Micropayments
Identity
Smart contracts
etc
etc
etc
etc
NetworkRoam & w/sale
Billing / OSS WiFi IoT
ServicesSpectrum
etcetc
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Engaging with the future….
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Cross-Organisation Involvement Partners & VendorsCompetitions, Incubators &
Hackathons
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What might 2030 mean for innovation, WiFi & spectrum?n Network “monoculture” vs “diversity”n Industrial IoT will bring many unique requirementsn Privately-managed wireless (licensed-band WiFi?)n Revisit the definition of “services”, telcos & SPsn Wireless connectivity ownership gets democratisedn Substitution = Functional Competitionn Sharing mechanisms for time/geo-fenced licencingn AI will have profound & unexpected impactsn Many tech pathways for any “outcome”
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WiFi has a critical role – but it needs advocacy & vision
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www.disruptive-analysis.comdisruptivewireless.blogspot.com@disruptivedean
Skype:disruptiveanalysisappear.in/disruptiveanalysis
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