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Futurism
Tom Cheesewright, Applied Futurist and Tim Devine, Gallagher
Things change
The past...
• 2018 - Conference
• 2018 - Risk Register 2025
• 2019 - stronger article
Risk Register 2025Risk Change? Comment
Brexit Removed
Cyber Attack / Security Increased impact Number 1 risk highlighted
Business Continuity
Healthcare partnerships
PFI failures Removed Change of name?
Staff recruitment
Terrorism Increased likelihood
Road network problems
Budget shortfall Reduced impact/probability
Safeguarding
Emerging risks
Political• Governmental reorganisation /
political changes• Cultural changes• Globalisation• Community resilience
Social• Changing demographics• Millennials not fitting norm• Population growth• Skills gap• Pandemic
Data• Data fraud / theft• Increase in crime due to
reduction in work / increased social time
Technology• AI• Automated cars• IT resilience
Global• Climate change• Environmental issues• Renewable energy
Operational• Ageing housing stock• Lack of housing• Infrastructure upgrade
Gallagher Future Risk Survey
• Most think there is more opportunity for growth in next 5 years
• Nearly 40% of CEO’s are responsible for assessing Enterprise risk
• Cybersecurity viewed as number 1 threat today
• Labour market concerns
Uncertainty?
Tom CheesewrightApplied Futurist
@bookofthefuture
Author “HIGH FREQUENCY CHANGE Why we feel like change happens faster now, and what to do about it”
Demographic Shift
Ubiquitouscybercrime
“Sorry I can’t come in today, my co-processor has a virus”
Sponsor logo here
Energy transformation
The end of power“A world where players have enough power to block everyone else’s initiatives but no one has the power to impose its preferred course of action is a world where decisions are not taken, taken too late, or watered down to the point of ineffectiveness.”
Moisés Naím, The End of Power
Networked Power?
Augmentation & automation
Next steps?
• Call to Alarm
• Segmentation approach to risks
• Consider the opportunity risk too
Our Literature Gallagher Public Sector Team
We have made available our literature at the following Gallagher portal:
https://iportal.ajginternational.com/i-portal/GallagheratAlarmConference2019/Pages/ClientHome.aspx
Username: [email protected]: Aconference@1213
Contacts
Gallagher Public Sector Team
Tim Devine, Managing DirectorE: [email protected]: 07901 516022
E: [email protected]: 0800 612 3641
Arthur J. Gallagher Insurance Brokers Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered Office: Spectrum Building, 7th Floor, 55, Blythswood Street, Glasgow, G2 7AT. Registered in Scotland. Company Number: SC108909.