futures methods for education research
DESCRIPTION
A talk I gave at the third seminar in the ESRC-sponsored series Educational Futures (http://edfutures.futurelab.org.uk/)TRANSCRIPT
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Methods for Educational Futures Research
5.7.02010Richard SandfordLSRI, Nottingham UK
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Outline
• Why methods?• Summary of common techniques• Alternative methodological frameworks• Educational research perspective
Perrotta, Hague & Williamson (2010) “Maintaining Futures Expertise”
http://www.futurelab.org.uk/resources/documents/project_reports/Maintaining_Futures_Expertise_Report.pdf
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Backcasting environment scanning forecasting scenarios trend analysis
causal layered analysis metascanning cross-impact matrices time capsules
futures wheel time lines MICMAC morphological analysis horizon scanning
futures triangle weak signals systems dynamics causal loop diagrams DELPHI visualisation 7 questions 5th scenario econometrics wargaming modelling
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Why methods?
• Enable confidence in claims about future states
• Enable comparisons within futures work & establish common professional standards
• Transparency, legitimacy, trust
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Why not methods?
• “Tool trap” (Graham Leicester, IFF)— Using futures techniques to avoid hard questions— “People want the tool, not the struggle”
(BCH/MFE)• Can be misapplied
— Spurious credibility & legitimacy• FS fundamentally interdisciplinary – no one
set of ‘approved’ methods
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Futures as a process
• Futures work not a single event• Different techniques appropriate at different
stages• Ideally a continuous cycle
— Often limited by real-world constraints
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Foresight UK
http://www.foresight.gov.uk/microsites/hsctoolkit/
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Foresight UK
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RAHS (Singapore)Defining focus
Environmental scanning
Sense making
Developing possible futures
Designing strategies
Monitoring
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Hines & Bishop (2007)
• Framing• Scanning• Forecasting• Visioning• Planning• Acting
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Top-level process
• General framework• Not definitive – enabling loose groupings of
different methods to support today’s discussion
• Looking at different ways of organising methods later on
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Top-level process
• Finding a question• Learning about the world• Describing the present world• Constructing futures• Responding to futures narratives
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Finding a question
• Stakeholder analysis• Issue analysis• Futures wheel
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Learning about the world
• Weak signals• Horizon scanning
— Shaping Tomorrow, Sigma scan• Trend extrapolation• Gathering opinions + beliefs about possible
futures— DELPHI, 7 questions— ‘crowdsourcing’, sentiment analysis
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Describing the present world
• Systems dynamics• Causal loop diagrams• Morphological analysis• Driver analysis• Modelling• Gaming
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Causal loop diagrams
http://blog.iseesystems.com/stella-ithink/limits-to-growth/
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Causal loop diagrams
http://www.foresight.gov.uk/OurWork/ActiveProjects/Obesity/Obesity.asp
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Morphological analysis
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Constructing futures
• Scenarios— Multiple methods: different purposes— Instances of outputs from models— 2 x 2 grid— Causal layered analysis
• Timelines— Connecting present to future
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Responding to futures narratives
• 5th scenario• Backcasting• Visioning• Windtunnelling• Roadmaps
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The unexpected
• “Black swans” (Taleb) — unpredictability of high-impact events
• “Dragon kings” (Sornette) — statistical outliers indicative of major system
change• Discontinuties, wild cards, shocks
— “unknown unknowns”• Tipping points, phase transitions
— “social analogues” (Sornette)
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The unexpected
• Hard to reflect in scenario-based approaches• Not detectable through trend extrapolation• Emergent products of complexity• Unlikely? Or unpalatable?
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Sorting methodological approaches
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Who’s doing it?
• Governments & agencies— STEEP/STEM, persuasion
• Private companies— Technologists, planners, designers
• Activists• Academics
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How long does it take?
• 3 years? 3 hours?• Different methods require lengths of time• Engagement time & preparation time different• Dependencies on other methods & research• Supports an open-ended and continuous
process?• Or moves towards a final destination?
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FS traditions
• Empirical/analytic— “data-driven, positivistic, often corporate”/RAND
• Critical/comparative— Perhaps closest to education research?
• Activist/participatory— Links with women’s, peace & environmental groups
• Multicultural/global(Slaughter, Futures Beyond Dystopia ch. 3)
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6 concepts 6 pillars
• Used futures• Disowned futures• Alternative futures• Alignment• Models of social change• Uses of the future
Inayatullah (2008)
• Mapping• Anticipation• Timing• Deepening• Creating alternatives• Transforming
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Other categorisations
Masini (1999)• Descriptive• Normative• Objective• Subjective• Systemic
Slaughter (1999)• Input methods• Analytic methods• Paradigmatic methods• Iterative & exploratory
methods
Gordon (1992)• Exploratory• Normative
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Activities that...
• Address facts about the world
— Empirical, data-based
• Address beliefs about the world
— Social sci techniques
• Encourage conversation and dialogue
— Workshop approaches
• Describe relations between things
— Systems thinking
• Speak to the heart & imagination
— Time capsules, visualisation
• Value human existence & experience
— Ethnographic & participatory
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Education research & futures
• Already encountered, and addressed, many epistemic and methodological difficulties FS beginning to recognise
• Already able to differentiate appropriate & valid methods – same criteria as other academic domains
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No best answers
• Multiple perspectives and traditions within FS and broader futures work
• Multiple perspectives and traditions within education research as well
• Not appropriate to prescribe some methods over others
• So how to choose for a particular project?
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Matching scope
• What’s the unit of analysis?— Nation state, organisation, individual?
• Where does the influence of a technique or methodological perspective start and finish?— End with policymakers? Only concerned with
canvassing beliefs?• What tasks is it designed to accomplish?
— Generating or communicating futures?
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Matching worldviews
• How does a particular technique assume change happens in the world?
• What models of cause and effect are in play?— ‘trends’ colliding & interacting sits uneasily with
some social science perspectives— ‘levers of change’ can seem simplistic
• Who are the actors in the futures generated?
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Matching values
• How does a particular technique talk about people?
• Is it concerned with meeting the same ends? Does it help education meet ethical responsibility to promote action?
• Does it give any role to the people affected by the futures it contributes to?
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Possible challenges
• Links between FS and education research clear• Hard to sign up to the sort of social
interventions FS can ask for• Perceived danger of sounding naive• Education research practice situated within
the contexts that FS aims to challenge
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Other fields
• Many other academic & professional disciplines with a temporal orientation
• Many other domains concerned with changing behaviour
• FS & education research both used to looking to other disciplines
• Geography, architecture, design, medicine...
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Psychiatry
• Increasing attention given to mental health challenges raised by negative futures — living in them and thinking about them
• “Solastalgia” – Glenn Albrecht— Homesickness while in a (changed) home
• Notions of ‘resilience’ more prominent— “Resilience in Social-Ecological Systems: The Role
of Learning and Education” Krasny et al. (Dec 10)— C4 Education ‘Super Me’
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Religion
• Existing cultural languages of deep time and consequence
• Useful as provocation or alternative view in supporting futures conversation
• Reaffirming (e.g. Inayatullah)’s insistence on recognising global diversity of worldviews
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Fundamental question
• Does your chosen approach reaffirm the status quo?
• Or does it lead to questions you find uncomfortable?