future of manufacturing, logistics and supply chain management - keynote for ibec by futurist...
TRANSCRIPT
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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
Fellow, Centre for Management Development, London Business School
TakeHoldoftheFutureHowtrendswillimpactmanufacturing
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Complexity and scale
create risks
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Title Text
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US / EU block on Chinese solar cells
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ClicktoeditMastertextstyles
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Trade strategies often overtaken by
events World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting
Time to move factory ?
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Agility
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CLOSER SUPPLIES
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Yet many trends changing more
slowly than people think
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Cash growing - bank branches continue -
music, fashions, food, trains, planes, hotel rooms, homes and
furniture very similar
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Digital Enterprise 4.0
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REALITY CHECK
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Robots in Factories only 7% pa
92,000-170,000 2000-2012
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3D scans - 3D printing
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The future is about
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The future is about
EMOTION
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Up to 70% of sales of new convenience stores from people
who live
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40% of adults in UK dont know by 4pm what
they will eat for dinner tonight
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Instant information
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Fast Fashion 15 days design / order to market - 28% savings on unwanted markdowns, lost sales or stockouts
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MOBILE 50% of all UK online sales are using mobile
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Loca9onMarke9ng
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Over4000roadhauliersinEU
1.3bnhomedeliverede-comitemsinUKayear(+12%pa)
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Gold standard:10am orders for 3pm Delivery
Anywhere in same country
10amordersfor3pm
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LARGER SCALE
- InmanyEUna9ons,>70%ofretailspendin
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VW mega platform
VWMegaPlaTorm-basisfor1mcars
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Over700,000kmsdriven
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World too small for more than:
5 large auto companies2 airline manufacturers
3 mobile operating systems
10 large pharma
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CUSTOM BUILD
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Multi-product assembly lines
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Niche Manufacturers
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EMERGING DEMANDS
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30 years
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85% of world population will be living in emerging
markets in 10 years
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Science,technologyengineering,
maths
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MostSTEMgraduatesinemergingmarkets
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ChinaandIndiadominate
STEMdegreesincludingpost-graduate/PhDs
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SOUTH to
SOUTH
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Since 1980, global trade has grown at twice the rate of production but this trend is slowing down rapidly
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South to South Trade will grow
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Regional trade growth in Asia $ / %
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Expect huge growth in component trade
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World exports of parts and components
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FACTORY MOVES
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8%wageinfla9oninChina-partoffsetbycurrencyfall
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NearshoringBoom
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ManufacturinginMexicowillgrowforUS
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LIVE DATA
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Internet of Things
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1.5m components tracked perfectly in Airbus supply chain
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250millionwearabledevicesby2023
$20bnto$70bnby2025
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$12bn security and controlhome automation market by 2018
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Big Data
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Predict failure - detect error - repair automatically
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Little Data often matters
most
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Big Data = Pattern Little Data = Piece Little Data = Person
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Global and Mobile Control
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CYBER SECURE
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WebofThings-BigData-Cloud180bnspamemailsaday
600mnewviruses,malware,trojansayear>220mpeoplesdetailslostinsingleadack70%largecorpora9onshavebeenhacked
100,000adacksanhouronUSNavyParalysisofEstoniagovernmentin2007
WorriesaboutUS,Russia,Chinapenetra9onofweb/cloudfollowingPrism
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GREENER PROCESS
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$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
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75% global growth in green energy is in China
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120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total global power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert
Output up 10% in 2014
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SolarCells$/wad1990-2015
subsidies
PriceParity
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InJune2013electricitypricesin
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30% EU trucks run empty
Wewaste25million
milesayeardrivingempty
trucks
USmajorretailer
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>15% energy saving / ton for 75 cents a litre
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CO2 emissions stable for 24
months of global economic growth
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Complexitycreatesrisk-needforagilitySpeedwillbeevenmoreimportant
MobileclientsandproductswillshakeretailEmergingmarketsbecomedominantExpectmassivewavesofconsolida9onExpectshijfromglobaltoregionaltrade
Nextdigital=fusion:IOT-BIGDATA-CLOUDPrepareformajorcyber-disrup9ons
WorldwillgogreenfarfasterthanexpectedRemembertheRealityCheck:9mingreallymaders
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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
globalchange.com15millionvisitors
5millionvideoviews
@patrickdixon
http://globalchange.com